Democratic Primary Thread: The Deuce

[Phish Tank]

Oh really? How’s that been going for you? Neoliberal politics over the past 40 years has lead us to the Land of Trump. Your pansy ass politics allowed Republicans to rape this country. You want more of the same. I don’t. Have fun working with Mitch McConnell.

We’ll see how bold Joe goes with both chambers of Congress. He’s already said he would veto M4A if passed. So that’s promising news.

It’s okay. Biden will be gone in 4 years and Kamala will never get to be POTUS.

Oh if M4A gets passed, there's absolutely ZERO chance Biden vetoes that. None. Problem is getting to the stage where M4A passes. It'll probably run into various quirks and roadblocks because it'll need to go through reconciliation, which means that a nice bill often gets muddied up and watered down like crazy.

Then the next goal is to remove the filibuster, which you need 2/3 of the Senate to agree to.....even if we win every single open senate race, would the Dems have a 2/3 majority? Highly doubt it.

Pretty massive "IF" though.

Yep indeed. If people remember, the idea of a public option was considered during ACA, but ultimately voted down by the Senate Finance Committee, even by some moderate dems. Dems voted against it because of a fear that the ACA wouldn't overcome a filibuster. Ironically enough, Schumer brought up the proposal!

The filibuster issue later became prominent with Lieberman, but - as you've clearly stated - passing bills are hard.

[HarthorneWingo]

No, it's about coming to the table with the boldest policies you can get passed.

Even if Bernie was elected, you wouldn't get everything because there are still Senators like Manchin, Sinema, Warner, King, etc... who are not going to blank check a bold progressive agenda. So now you have to moderate your bill or you have to wait until they get primaried and possibly lose. By then, you probably don't have control of all 3 chambers.

You can try to get rid of the filibuster, but I don't think every Dem will sign on to that, so I hope your margins in the Senate are good enough.

This is the way government works. It's a game of compromise as you make incremental progress towards your goal. You are not going to reshape the country over night. I think we are going to start pulling things back to the left under Biden though.

Oh really? How’s that been going for you? Neoliberal politics over the past 40 years has lead us to the Land of Trump. Your pansy ass politics allowed Republicans to rape this country. You want more of the same. I don’t. Have fun working with Mitch McConnell.

We’ll see how bold Joe goes with both chambers of Congress. He’s already said he would veto M4A if passed. So that’s promising news.

It’s okay. Biden will be gone in 4 years and Kamala will never get to be POTUS.

Oh if M4A gets passed, there's absolutely ZERO chance Biden vetoes that. None. Problem is getting to the stage where M4A passes. It'll probably run into various quirks and roadblocks because it'll need to go through reconciliation, which means that a nice bill often gets muddied up and watered down like crazy.

Then the next goal is to remove the filibuster, which you need 2/3 of the Senate to agree to.....even if we win every single open senate race, would the Dems have a 2/3 majority? Highly doubt it.

That can’t be true about the 2/3. McConnell got rid of the filibuster for consent and approval of SCOTUS candidates without 2/3 approval.

[Phish Tank]

Oh really? How’s that been going for you? Neoliberal politics over the past 40 years has lead us to the Land of Trump. Your pansy ass politics allowed Republicans to rape this country. You want more of the same. I don’t. Have fun working with Mitch McConnell.

We’ll see how bold Joe goes with both chambers of Congress. He’s already said he would veto M4A if passed. So that’s promising news.

It’s okay. Biden will be gone in 4 years and Kamala will never get to be POTUS.

Oh if M4A gets passed, there's absolutely ZERO chance Biden vetoes that. None. Problem is getting to the stage where M4A passes. It'll probably run into various quirks and roadblocks because it'll need to go through reconciliation, which means that a nice bill often gets muddied up and watered down like crazy.

Then the next goal is to remove the filibuster, which you need 2/3 of the Senate to agree to.....even if we win every single open senate race, would the Dems have a 2/3 majority? Highly doubt it.

That can’t be true about the 2/3. McConnell got rid of the filibuster for consent and approval of SCOTUS candidates without 2/3 approval.

Different procedure for judges vs legislation. Harry Reid used the nuclear option for nominees and candidates that McConnell stalled.

Can't use the nuclear option in order to pass bills unless you go through every single loophole possible...

Also remember that turning everything to a simple majority can - and will - come back to haunt you once you lose power. Case in point - Trump appointing 200+ judges and 2 supreme court nominees. However, I think more and more dems - even centrists - are in favor of abolishing it.

[j4remi]

If Dems are fortunate enough to roll into next Jan with all 3 chambers, I'm sure they won't just give that mandate away to be nice.

If the dems get all 3 chambers, they are going to avenge Merrick Garland and dominate the GOP as they should. Biden will still be diplomatic about it, but he's not going to throw them many bones just to be nice.

I really hope this is the case; but I don’t get the confidence in this being the case. Biden is showing some promise but it’s not just him. The whole party has to be behind this stuff. That means bringing along the manchins, the sinemas and every single blue dog Democrat. I’m skeptical is all I’m saying.

[GONYK]

If Dems are fortunate enough to roll into next Jan with all 3 chambers, I'm sure they won't just give that mandate away to be nice.

If the dems get all 3 chambers, they are going to avenge Merrick Garland and dominate the GOP as they should. Biden will still be diplomatic about it, but he's not going to throw them many bones just to be nice.

I really hope this is the case; but I don’t get the confidence in this being the case. Biden is showing some promise but it’s not just him. The whole party has to be behind this stuff. That means bringing along the manchins, the sinemas and every single blue dog Democrat. I’m skeptical is all I’m saying.

I am much expectant of Manchin and Sinema blocking progressive legislation and forcing Biden's hand than I am of Biden reaching out to McConnell for no reason.

[robillionaire]

It's not about "giving away the mandate away" it's about coming to the table with your boldest and strongest programs without the concern that they will join or not, unlike how Obama came to the table without a even a public option in '08 despite having all three chambers of gov't. How many times did Obama extend his hand in the name of bipartisanship only to have it spat upon by Mitch McConnell and the Freedom Caucus?

Also, they've pulled us to the far right for 4 decades. It's time to pull the rope back if we have the numbers. And fck the filibuster, that's gone.

No, it's about coming to the table with the boldest policies you can get passed.

Even if Bernie was elected, you wouldn't get everything because there are still Senators like Manchin, Sinema, Warner, King, etc... who are not going to blank check a bold progressive agenda. So now you have to moderate your bill or you have to wait until they get primaried and possibly lose. By then, you probably don't have control of all 3 chambers.

You can try to get rid of the filibuster, but I don't think every Dem will sign on to that, so I hope your margins in the Senate are good enough.

This is the way government works. It's a game of compromise as you make incremental progress towards your goal. You are not going to reshape the country over night. I think we are going to start pulling things back to the left under Biden though.

Oh really? How’s that been going for you? Neoliberal politics over the past 40 years has lead us to the Land of Trump. Your pansy ass politics allowed Republicans to rape this country. You want more of the same. I don’t. Have fun working with Mitch McConnell.

We’ll see how bold Joe goes with both chambers of Congress. He’s already said he would veto M4A if passed. So that’s promising news.

It’s okay. Biden will be gone in 4 years and Kamala will never get to be POTUS.

well wingo my prediction is that m4a won't happen until there are massive demonstrations of the same scope of the ongoing current protests and they all have to hide in bunkers. nothing less is ever going to convince the politicians of either party to do something that would forsake the donor class and benefit the people to such a degree. it's never going to pass on its own until people are suffering enough to rise up and make it happen. in a failed state people start to realize that all we have is each other. no help is coming. everything is up to us. So, let's see how many years that takes for that mass movement to materialize. I genuinely find this scenario to be more likely and believable as the catalyst that gets universal health care done more than I am the ability of these politicians to pass it on their own

in fact if I had to come up with a 2nd most likely scenario that results in m4a, it's that trump in his rapidly declining mental state gets a wild idea and just decides hey let's give everyone health care, he wins re-election and it passes with bipartisan support giving him all the glory for it. the likelihood of the dems passing it through incremental tweaks of the aca and getting the gop to not obstruct it ranks even behind that scenario

[Clyde_Style]

If Dems are fortunate enough to roll into next Jan with all 3 chambers, I'm sure they won't just give that mandate away to be nice.

If the dems get all 3 chambers, they are going to avenge Merrick Garland and dominate the GOP as they should. Biden will still be diplomatic about it, but he's not going to throw them many bones just to be nice.

I really hope this is the case; but I don’t get the confidence in this being the case. Biden is showing some promise but it’s not just him. The whole party has to be behind this stuff. That means bringing along the manchins, the sinemas and every single blue dog Democrat. I’m skeptical is all I’m saying.

Guys like Manchin do the two-step. One for my red pill eaters, one for my blue. Only thing is he generally can be counted on to be on the blue side for the issues most important to the Dems. He tries to give some concessions to his more conservative constituents when he feels he can get away with it.

If there is a landslide that flips the Dems to a 60 head count in the Senate they will have an anti-filibuster wall for the big battles and Schumer will likely get their cooperation on those votes.

Chuck and Nancy are going to collect some scalps and Joe will front like he's the good guy in the group, but he's not going to discourage them behind closed doors.

[robillionaire]

If the dems get all 3 chambers, they are going to avenge Merrick Garland and dominate the GOP as they should. Biden will still be diplomatic about it, but he's not going to throw them many bones just to be nice.

I really hope this is the case; but I don’t get the confidence in this being the case. Biden is showing some promise but it’s not just him. The whole party has to be behind this stuff. That means bringing along the manchins, the sinemas and every single blue dog Democrat. I’m skeptical is all I’m saying.

Guys like Manchin do the two-step. One for my red pill eaters, one for my blue. Only thing is he generally can be counted on to be on the blue side for the issues most important to the Dems. He tries to give some concessions to his more conservative constituents when he feels he can get away with it.

If there is a landslide that flips the Dems to a 60 head count in the Senate they will have an anti-filibuster wall for the big battles and Schumer will likely get their cooperation on those votes.

Chuck and Nancy are going to collect some scalps and Joe will front like he's the good guy in the group, but he's not going to discourage them behind closed doors.

i think it's the other way around with guys like manchin, seems to me more like they only give concessions to the dems when they feel their constituents might like them get away with it but other than that they will vote right wing on the wedge issues in order to not get voted out

[Clyde_Style]

I really hope this is the case; but I don’t get the confidence in this being the case. Biden is showing some promise but it’s not just him. The whole party has to be behind this stuff. That means bringing along the manchins, the sinemas and every single blue dog Democrat. I’m skeptical is all I’m saying.

Guys like Manchin do the two-step. One for my red pill eaters, one for my blue. Only thing is he generally can be counted on to be on the blue side for the issues most important to the Dems. He tries to give some concessions to his more conservative constituents when he feels he can get away with it.

If there is a landslide that flips the Dems to a 60 head count in the Senate they will have an anti-filibuster wall for the big battles and Schumer will likely get their cooperation on those votes.

Chuck and Nancy are going to collect some scalps and Joe will front like he's the good guy in the group, but he's not going to discourage them behind closed doors.

i think it's the other way around with guys like manchin, seems to me more like they only give concessions to the dems when they feel their constituents might like them get away with it but other than that they will vote right wing on the wedge issues in order to not get voted out

I understand what you're saying, but I should state it differently. Manchin typically throws bones to the red side of the aisle when he is not the deciding vote. That is basically his M.O.

What that means is he has often voted with the GOP during these past four years. He even voted for Kavanaugh, but he was not the margin of victory which was two votes. That's how close he'll shave it to feed the conservative factions of his base, but I still think he can be persuaded to vote with the Dems when he sits on the fulcrum and may be the deciding vote.

Plus, if November goes as is hoped then I expect that to produce a strong wind in the sails of the party to enact more progressive legislation. I think there will be an eruption between elections and the inauguration due to Trump chit stirring his base and abusing his office, but after that dies down I think lots of the MAGA types will crawl back under a rock. Not all of them, but that populist movement will be deflated rather quickly as so much of it is personality driven and only vaguely policy based outside of broad strokes like killing black people and putting kids in cages.

And my thesis is that as 2021 unfolds it will be safer and safer politically for the Manchins to side with the Democratic platform as the backlash occurs against the vast amount of corruption that will be exposed and prosecuted. The GOP is going to be so crippled for at least a while that it will help the Dems hold their majority of votes in line.

[HarthorneWingo]

No, it's about coming to the table with the boldest policies you can get passed.

Even if Bernie was elected, you wouldn't get everything because there are still Senators like Manchin, Sinema, Warner, King, etc... who are not going to blank check a bold progressive agenda. So now you have to moderate your bill or you have to wait until they get primaried and possibly lose. By then, you probably don't have control of all 3 chambers.

You can try to get rid of the filibuster, but I don't think every Dem will sign on to that, so I hope your margins in the Senate are good enough.

This is the way government works. It's a game of compromise as you make incremental progress towards your goal. You are not going to reshape the country over night. I think we are going to start pulling things back to the left under Biden though.

Oh really? How’s that been going for you? Neoliberal politics over the past 40 years has lead us to the Land of Trump. Your pansy ass politics allowed Republicans to rape this country. You want more of the same. I don’t. Have fun working with Mitch McConnell.

We’ll see how bold Joe goes with both chambers of Congress. He’s already said he would veto M4A if passed. So that’s promising news.

It’s okay. Biden will be gone in 4 years and Kamala will never get to be POTUS.

well wingo my prediction is that m4a won't happen until there are massive demonstrations of the same scope of the ongoing current protests and they all have to hide in bunkers. nothing less is ever going to convince the politicians of either party to do something that would forsake the donor class and benefit the people to such a degree. it's never going to pass on its own until people are suffering enough to rise up and make it happen. in a failed state people start to realize that all we have is each other. no help is coming. everything is up to us. So, let's see how many years that takes for that mass movement to materialize. I genuinely find this scenario to be more likely and believable as the catalyst that gets universal health care done more than I am the ability of these politicians to pass it on their own

in fact if I had to come up with a 2nd most likely scenario that results in m4a, it's that trump in his rapidly declining mental state gets a wild idea and just decides hey let's give everyone health care, he wins re-election and it passes with bipartisan support giving him all the glory for it. the likelihood of the dems passing it through incremental tweaks of the aca and getting the gop to not obstruct it ranks even behind that scenario

Agreed. If Trump had any sense, he’d turn left when this pandemic hit. That in itself would’ve won him reelection.

I think Biden will hold true to his word and veto it given that he’ll only be in office for 4 years. His ties to big money are too vast. Plus, all of the big donor money is pouring in.

You would think that a pandemic with vast unemployment and concomitant loss of health insurance would move reasonable people to finally see the light. We’re the only civilized nation without it and Joe Biden has the unmitigated gall to say he’d veto it? I’d challenge to a push-up contest on the spot if he said that to my face. And when he had a heart attack, I wouldn’t call 911.

Yeah, I’m evil

[Clyde_Style]

Read on Twitter

[Clyde_Style]

I cannot verify the following material, but I googled for names listed in a response to the above tweet that referenced names of early teens and their settlement amounts paid by Trump. This is the blog post I found.

Katie Johnson was the case Ive cited before that charged Trump with raping a 13 year at an Epstein party while she was bound to the bed and allegedly Trump threatened to kill her and her family if she talked.

One of the key points below (which feels highly plausible at this point) is:

"Trump has refused to release his tax returns because they will reveal the many out-of-court settlements he has paid to silence his assault victims and their families"

If this is true, it is very likely these are the kinds of bombshells coming in Cohen's book.

This is pretty horrifying if true. Pedo rape of little boys and girls.

The post below references material from a paid subscription site and claims to have come from a reputable Republican source, whatever that means.

Donald Trump has paid about $30 million to settle child-sex complaints, including a 2012 incident at Albemarle Estate in Charlottesville, Virginia

https://legalschnauzer.blogspot.com/2019/01/donald-trump-has-paid-about-30-million.html

BLOG POST:

Spoiler:

Donald Trump has paid roughly $30 million to settle child-sex complaints brought against him since 1989, according to a D.C.-based investigative journalist.

Wayne Madsen Report (WMR), which is a subscription site, describes the settlements in a Jan. 14-15 post titled "Why is Trump so afraid of Cohen's testimony?" From the article:

Donald Trump continues to lash out at his former lawyer and "fixer," Michael Cohen, as the February 7 public testimony by Cohen before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, chaired by Representative Elijah Cummings (D-MD), draws nearer. Cohen said he wants to "give a full and credible account of the events that have transpired."

While Cohen will avoid certain subjects still under investigation by Department of Justice special counsel Robert Mueller, he may provide some insight into the types of embarrassing things he "fixed" for Trump, before they ended up in scandalous court trials. This may include Cohen assisting Trump in paying off victims of Trump's sexual assaults over the years.


The cases go way beyond those widely reported in the mainstream press, WMR reports. They also go beyond cases that involve women and adults. They indicate Trump has a disturbing taste for children:

In addition to Stephanie Clifford, aka porn actress "Stormy Daniels," and former Playboy model Karen McDougal, Cohen reportedly helped settle a number of rape cases involving Trump. WMR received a list from a reputable Republican source of these settlement claims, all of which involve male and female minors:

(1) Michael Parker, 10-years old, oral rape, Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach, FL, 1992. Trump paid his parents a $3 million settlement.

(2) Kelly Feuer, 12-years old, $1 million settlement paid in 1989, allegations of forced intercourse, Trump Tower, NY, NY.

(3) Charles Bacon, 11-years old, $3 million, allegations of oral and anal intercourse, 1994, Trump Tower, NY, NY.

(4) Rebecca Conway, 13-years old, intercourse and oral sex. Trump Vineyard Estates, Charlottesville, VA, 2012, $5 million settlement.

(5) Maria Olivera, 12-years old. Her family was paid $16 million to settle allegations of forcible intercourse occurring in Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach, FL, 1993.

(6) Kevin Noll, 11-years old, anal rape, Trump Tower, NY, NY. 1998. Settlement details unknown.


Five of the six alleged incidents took place at two of Trump's best-known properties -- Trump Tower in New York City and Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, FL. The exception is incident No. 4, which is the most recent (2012) and took place at Albemarle Estate at Trump Winery. Donald and Eric Trump opened the facility as a bed-and-breakfast in May 2015.

Donald Trump
Trump started negotiating to acquire the property after it went into foreclosure in 2011. Trump formally purchased the entire estate in October 2012.

The child-sex settlements might explain Trump's reluctance to disclose his tax returns, WMR reports, and documents indicate our "president" is a deeply disturbed individual:

WMR's GOP source indicated that Trump has refused to release his tax returns because they will reveal the many out-of-court settlements he has paid to silence his assault victims and their families. The list of Trump's child victims came with an interesting reference point that was apparently part of the documentation in the settlement cases. Trump was designated with a psychiatric disorder referenced in the American Psychiatric Association's Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM–5). The referenced disorder is "Pedophilic Disorder (F65.4)."

[HarthorneWingo]

To the Biden leg hair fans, who will be his economic team? Can we expect to see Larry Summers, et al., back in da House?

Listen up to Prof. Richard D. Wolff and learn something.

(Just in case you're planning on crapping on my news source )

Wolff earned a BA magna cum laude in history from Harvard in 1963 and moved on to Stanford—he attained an MA in economics in 1964—to study with Paul A. Baran. Baran died prematurely from a heart attack in 1964 and Wolff transferred to Yale University, where he received an MA in economics in 1966, MA in history in 1967, and a PhD in economics in 1969. As a graduate student at Yale, Wolff worked as an instructor.

Watch on YouTube

[Clyde_Style]

Read on Twitter

[Clyde_Style]

Tsunami warning for Republicans

Republicans are inching closer to a political wipeout, losing complete control of power in Washington. The way things are going, the 2018 midterms may end up looking like a GOP high water mark.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/708658?unlock=XZMW5BGIJVUT6MJF

ARTICLE:

Spoiler:

In the dozens of interviews we conducted with Republican and Democratic strategists as part of our latest Hotline House race ratings, one dynamic became apparent: The bottom is falling out for Republican candidates across the country, from traditional battleground states to even heavily Republican strongholds like Alaska. While public polling shows President Trump badly behind in typical swing states, internal surveys from top pollsters are indicating trouble in surprising locales.

There are hints of the looming GOP shellacking all over. Joe Biden is up by a whopping 13 points in Trump’s new home state of Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac poll, as close to a must-win as it gets for the president. Trump is trailing in Texas by 1 point, consistent with other surveys showing the president in trouble in a state Republicans have carried in every election since 1976. Democrats are investing millions in Georgia, convinced that they can contest not just the presidential race but both Senate seats up for grabs in the traditionally red state. Democrats provided us with remarkable internal data from reliably Republican House seats—from Oklahoma to Indiana—showing districts that Trump carried by double-digits are now Biden battlegrounds in the presidential race.

Biden is now the heavy favorite to win the presidency. This week, The Cook Political Report declared Democrats are favored to win back the Senate, with a massive Democratic gain of five to seven seats more likely than a narrow Republican majority. And our House race rankings of the most competitive races contained more Republican-held seats than Democratic ones, a stunning dynamic given how many red-district seats Democrats are defending after riding a big blue wave in the 2018 midterms.

Indeed, the last midterm election is a useful benchmark for examining this year’s election. Optimistic Republican strategists are holding out hope that the political environment would be similar to that of two years ago, when Republicans badly struggled in the suburbs but ran competitively in wide swaths of the country. Republicans point out that GOP candidates notched a few significant wins that year despite their overall struggles, winning a big Senate seat and governor’s race in Florida, toppling a couple of red-state Democratic senators, and holding their own in working-class territory where Trump made major gains in his first presidential race.

Right now, replicating that 2018 environment looks like a best-case scenario for Republicans. They’re losing even more ground in the suburbs, forcing the party to write off nearly any district where Trump was already losing ground before. And as the coronavirus continues to spread across the country, Republicans are taking hits among normally dependable white working-class constituencies. The rural heartland of Iowa would normally be a golden opportunity for Republicans to mount a comeback. Instead, GOP Sen. Joni Ernst is struggling against a little-known challenger, and the GOP could whiff on three promising pickup opportunities in the House.

Actions are speaking as loudly for Republicans as the polls. Trump’s decision to dramatically scale back the Republican convention—canceling proceedings in Jacksonville after demanding a packed house full of Trump supporters weeks ago—is a sign of Republicans’ declining fortunes. A clear majority of voters don’t believe Trump has taken the pandemic seriously, and is continuing to punish him and his party for the misconduct. With early voting in many states beginning in two months, there’s not much time left for the president to shake off the widespread perception of incompetence on the biggest issue of the day. Businesses have again been forced to close in major hotspots across the South and Sun Belt, threatening another economic speed bump that Republicans simply can’t afford.

Internal Republican divisions are also beginning to emerge, in ways that suggest the party is already looking ahead to a post-Trump future. Republicans are struggling to find consensus on a new coronavirus-relief package, a fight that pits fiscal conservatives wary of spending additional public money against the risk of economic calamity that awaits if they don’t. Several House GOP hard-liners went after Republican Conference Chair Liz Cheney this week, accusing her of being insufficiently supportive of the president. Cheney, a potential future party leader, fired back by portraying them as political nihilists. In Kansas, outside Republican groups are pouring millions into a primary in a desperate attempt to prevent a hard-right candidate from costing the party an otherwise winnable Senate race.

This is the sign of a political death spiral. At this point, Republicans would be content to suffer through another blue-wave election, holding out hope the Senate could remain narrowly in Republican hands. Right now, Republicans are staring at the reality of a historic tsunami, wiping out all their avenues of power in a rebuke against a hapless president

[j4remi]

I understand what you're saying, but I should state it differently. Manchin typically throws bones to the red side of the aisle when he is not the deciding vote. That is basically his M.O.

What that means is he has often voted with the GOP during these past four years. He even voted for Kavanaugh, but he was not the margin of victory which was two votes. That's how close he'll shave it to feed the conservative factions of his base, but I still think he can be persuaded to vote with the Dems when he sits on the fulcrum and may be the deciding vote.

Plus, if November goes as is hoped then I expect that to produce a strong wind in the sails of the party to enact more progressive legislation. I think there will be an eruption between elections and the inauguration due to Trump chit stirring his base and abusing his office, but after that dies down I think lots of the MAGA types will crawl back under a rock. Not all of them, but that populist movement will be deflated rather quickly as so much of it is personality driven and only vaguely policy based outside of broad strokes like killing black people and putting kids in cages.

And my thesis is that as 2021 unfolds it will be safer and safer politically for the Manchins to side with the Democratic platform as the backlash occurs against the vast amount of corruption that will be exposed and prosecuted. The GOP is going to be so crippled for at least a while that it will help the Dems hold their majority of votes in line.

Context is important here imo because the order that this happened in matters . Schumer was trying to WHIP the entire Democratic party to put more pressure on the Republican moderates, we'd only need one in that case. But Manchin and a couple of others outright refused to acknowledge Schumer's leadership and Manchin said outright that Schumer could kiss his "you know what."

This wasn't "oh well they don't have the votes, so I'll just play to my constituents." It was Schumer saying "we need a united front to even have a chance to win this fight" and Manchin responding "kiss my ass."

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/13/schumer-supreme-court-fight-centrist-democrats-716654

Generally speaking, the votes that go against party line voting (in instances that it's for strategic reasons) are made in unison with leadership. The understanding is mutual. This was not the case here.

[BKlutch]

All politics has been distorted by gerrymandering, extremism, Trumpism, and a lack of great leaders all around. Really great Republican leadership would have created a effective response to COVID and made strong steps to deal with racism. Instead, they keep digging the hole deeper. Are they all living in fantasyland, where magically the virus disappears and they win in November?

I get that Biden was not previously the first choice of many of us. But I don't think we can take it if he doesn't win. He will be better, we'll get back on track, and we can build on this. Remember, perfect is the enemy of good.

[HarthorneWingo]

I understand what you're saying, but I should state it differently. Manchin typically throws bones to the red side of the aisle when he is not the deciding vote. That is basically his M.O.

What that means is he has often voted with the GOP during these past four years. He even voted for Kavanaugh, but he was not the margin of victory which was two votes. That's how close he'll shave it to feed the conservative factions of his base, but I still think he can be persuaded to vote with the Dems when he sits on the fulcrum and may be the deciding vote.

Plus, if November goes as is hoped then I expect that to produce a strong wind in the sails of the party to enact more progressive legislation. I think there will be an eruption between elections and the inauguration due to Trump chit stirring his base and abusing his office, but after that dies down I think lots of the MAGA types will crawl back under a rock. Not all of them, but that populist movement will be deflated rather quickly as so much of it is personality driven and only vaguely policy based outside of broad strokes like killing black people and putting kids in cages.

And my thesis is that as 2021 unfolds it will be safer and safer politically for the Manchins to side with the Democratic platform as the backlash occurs against the vast amount of corruption that will be exposed and prosecuted. The GOP is going to be so crippled for at least a while that it will help the Dems hold their majority of votes in line.

Context is important here imo because the order that this happened in matters . Schumer was trying to WHIP the entire Democratic party to put more pressure on the Republican moderates, we'd only need one in that case. But Manchin and a couple of others outright refused to acknowledge Schumer's leadership and Manchin said outright that Schumer could kiss his "you know what."

This wasn't "oh well they don't have the votes, so I'll just play to my constituents." It was Schumer saying "we need a united front to even have a chance to win this fight" and Manchin responding "kiss my ass."

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/13/schumer-supreme-court-fight-centrist-democrats-716654

Generally speaking, the votes that go against party line voting (in instances that it's for strategic reasons) are made in unison with leadership. The understanding is mutual. This was not the case here.

Schumer has to go. I’m hoping AOC challengers him (or Gillebrand, she can go too) next.

[HarthorneWingo]

All politics has been distorted by gerrymandering, extremism, Trumpism, and a lack of great leaders all around. Really great Republican leadership would have created a effective response to COVID and made strong steps to deal with racism. Instead, they keep digging the hole deeper. Are they all living in fantasyland, where magically the virus disappears and they win in November?

I get that Biden was not previously the first choice of many of us. But I don't think we can take it if he doesn't win. He will be better, we'll get back on track, and we can build on this. Remember, perfect is the enemy of good.

There are a couple articles in today’s NYT on the election which are worth taking a look at.

This is to do with the effect of Georgia’s problem with voting machines on the election.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/25/us/politics/georgia-election-voting-problems.html

This is more general article on Biden/Trump demographics.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/upshot/biden-polls-demographics.html

[GONYK]

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