The uncomfortable "truth" about this season (Julius and RJ)

[Oscirus]

One of the thing with RJ and to an extent Randle they spend so much energy on defense that their offensive numbers take a hit. If you look at a lot of the wings in the league, that when young were known as two way stoppers, you can see that their efficiency was terrible early on.

This is especially true on Thibs teams, where he demands every player gives 100% on defense. Jimmy, Rose, Deng Noah, etc. were never the most efficient player in the league on the Bulls. It’s easy to be efficient on offense when you don’t have to waste energy on defense every game while playing 40+ minutes a night

RJ and defense don't go together

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Tell that to Leonard

[cgf]

One of the thing with RJ and to an extent Randle they spend so much energy on defense that their offensive numbers take a hit. If you look at a lot of the wings in the league, that when young were known as two way stoppers, you can see that their efficiency was terrible early on.

This is especially true on Thibs teams, where he demands every player gives 100% on defense. Jimmy, Rose, Deng Noah, etc. were never the most efficient player in the league on the Bulls. It’s easy to be efficient on offense when you don’t have to waste energy on defense every game while playing 40+ minutes a night

RJ and defense don't go together

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...wait what?

[BugginOut]

One of the thing with RJ and to an extent Randle they spend so much energy on defense that their offensive numbers take a hit. If you look at a lot of the wings in the league, that when young were known as two way stoppers, you can see that their efficiency was terrible early on.

This is especially true on Thibs teams, where he demands every player gives 100% on defense. Jimmy, Rose, Deng Noah, etc. were never the most efficient player in the league on the Bulls. It’s easy to be efficient on offense when you don’t have to waste energy on defense every game while playing 40+ minutes a night

RJ and defense don't go together

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So he’s a bad defender? By every metric, and the eye test, he’s a good defender. He played great defense in the playoffs.

Are you typing stuff just to type it?

[Montmorencie]

They are both decent players but we saw how far theyre from the other teams number 1 and 2 guys. I mean you have Embiid and Simmons, you have KD and Kyrie/James, you have Giannis and Middleton, Trae and Collins. I expect Rozier and Melo to be better next year(they were about to be this season as well, then Melo got injured). Bam and Jimmy are better. Tatum and Brown - no contest. Even Beal and Russ surpass them undoubtedly.

[HarthorneWingo]

You have to ask yourself if you think Randle can outperform this season and the answer is no

He doesn't need to outperform what he did this past season. You're right, he's not going to continue to hit 3s at 42%. But even at $25M/year, Julius make 38% from 3, plus the assists and rebounds, is fine. He just needs some more help. His contract will be a great value and, therefore, easy to move if necessary.

He's going to be looking for 35mil per year

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He can only get that after 10 years in the league which means that he would still have to sign a two-year deal at around $50 million, after his option year, before he’s entitled to the Super Max. That’s my understanding.

[HarthorneWingo]

Was kobe first playoff experience spectacular?

Yall need to chill. Julius and rj will learn from this experience. Sheeshhh

KD the same

[Oscirus]

They are both decent players but we saw how far theyre from the other teams number 1 and 2 guys. I mean you have Embiid and Simmons, you have KD and Kyrie/James, you have Giannis and Middleton, Trae and Collins. I expect Rozier and Melo to be better next year(they were about to be this season as well, then Melo got injured). Bam and Jimmy are better. Tatum and Brown - no contest. Even Beal and Russ surpass them undoubtedly.

So 2 years in ( and at 20 for rj), they're expected to be better than mostly top 20 players? Thats ignoring the one duo that clearly wasnt better but is being speculated to be better based on nothing

[BugginOut]

They are both decent players but we saw how far theyre from the other teams number 1 and 2 guys. I mean you have Embiid and Simmons, you have KD and Kyrie/James, you have Giannis and Middleton, Trae and Collins. I expect Rozier and Melo to be better next year(they were about to be this season as well, then Melo got injured). Bam and Jimmy are better. Tatum and Brown - no contest. Even Beal and Russ surpass them undoubtedly.

It depends if Randle plays like he did this season. Cause if Randle puts up similar stats and RJ takes another leap (something like 22/7/4). Than I definitely have them over Rozier/Melo, Beal/Russ.

They are in the same tier as Trae/Collins and Jimmy/Bam

[Chanel Bomber]

They are both decent players but we saw how far theyre from the other teams number 1 and 2 guys. I mean you have Embiid and Simmons, you have KD and Kyrie/James, you have Giannis and Middleton, Trae and Collins. I expect Rozier and Melo to be better next year(they were about to be this season as well, then Melo got injured). Bam and Jimmy are better. Tatum and Brown - no contest. Even Beal and Russ surpass them undoubtedly.

It depends if Randle plays like he did this season. Cause if Randle puts up similar stats and RJ takes another leap (something like 22/7/4). Than I definitely have them over Rozier/Melo, Beal/Russ.

They are in the same tier as Trae/Collins and Jimmy/Bam

Watch on YouTube

[HarthorneWingo]

They are both decent players but we saw how far theyre from the other teams number 1 and 2 guys. I mean you have Embiid and Simmons, you have KD and Kyrie/James, you have Giannis and Middleton, Trae and Collins. I expect Rozier and Melo to be better next year(they were about to be this season as well, then Melo got injured). Bam and Jimmy are better. Tatum and Brown - no contest. Even Beal and Russ surpass them undoubtedly.

It depends if Randle plays like he did this season. Cause if Randle puts up similar stats and RJ takes another leap (something like 22/7/4). Than I definitely have them over Rozier/Melo, Beal/Russ.

They are in the same tier as Trae/Collins and Jimmy/Bam

I would not expect Randle to shoot 42% from 3 next season.

[Chanel Bomber]

We wont know what rj is for at least two years if he's still here so it's hard to say what his efficiency will be like at his peak. Randle is hard to say one way or the other since he gets most of the attention Id still say that having help would at the very least get him to the league average if not above it. He's not that far off now on this team.

You're right our inability to go small is problematic especially in the future, but I legit dont know if thats more on randle or Thibs since we never even tried.

You're right, and I believe Thibs made a massive mistake not going small with Randle at the 5 against Atlanta. The Knicks were getting smoked with his formula, what did he have to lose?

I'm a big believer in RJ and I believe we should be patient with him. I don't expect him to make the leap to stardom before year 4 at the earliest (if he ever does). But one can still recognize that the early results aren't very convincing. He's an inefficient scorer playing a limited 3&D role. He's not being inefficient creating offense like a Lamelo Ball or a Ja Morant. He's being inefficient taking mostly wide-open 3s and attacking the basket. Shot creation isn't part of his skill set (yet). I personally consider him a keeper, but I don't think it's unreasonable for some people to doubt him.

Randle reaching league-average, or hovering just over it, is not good enough. He needs to be better. Although Donovan Mitchell's scoring efficiency in the regular season is nothing to write home about, to be fair. But Mitchell is a way more dynamic player, in addition to being younger, and being an incredible playoff performer.

Glass half empty, you're right. Inefficiency is concerning esp since he's working as no.2 on the knicks. On the other hand, shooting and defense are two things that were weaknesses for him coming into the nba and he's coming along really well on those aspects.
He's admittedly a frustrating prospect because unlike most theres not a defined path for him, but Im of the school of mind that it is way to early to just get rid of him before we can see what happens. Ive seen enough promise for him to be patient, though i can see why others wouldnt.

What you say for randle is fair enough. If his numbers drop a little and his efficiency rose, would that be satisfactory? What would make his output satisfactory in your opinion?

I'd much rather Randle took a step back in FGAs and usage but shot the ball more efficiently, that's for sure. That would give me more confidence that he could thrive in a lesser role, whether as a second or third option.

I want to see Randle get closer to 60.0 TS%. He reached that mark twice in his career but he played minutes at the 5 on losing teams then, so I'm not sure how relevant that is. Julius needs to make that leap for us to build a contender. If he doesn't and the organization decides to build around him, then we're probably screwed.

PS: By the end of the season, RJ was really working as our #3. His inability to create offense was glaring in the playoffs. But I also share the opinion that it's way too early to give up on him, especially since I expect him to break out late.

[Nazrmohamed]

He doesn't need to outperform what he did this past season. You're right, he's not going to continue to hit 3s at 42%. But even at $25M/year, Julius make 38% from 3, plus the assists and rebounds, is fine. He just needs some more help. His contract will be a great value and, therefore, easy to move if necessary.

He's going to be looking for 35mil per year

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He can only get that after 10 years in the league which means that he would still have to sign a two-year deal at around $50 million, after his option year, before he’s entitled to the Super Max. That’s my understanding.

No, not your understanding. That is fact.

[N8isScofield]

I feel like people were so happy with the statistical leap that Randle took that they weren't actually watching him on a play to play basis. There's no doubt that he had a phenomenal regular season where he put up some really nice numbers. There's also no doubt that even in his good games, everything other than a spot up looks extremely labored and difficult. He doesn't make anything look easy on offense. Even when he's hot, any possession where he's being defended with any intensity looks difficult. He doesn't have the skill or the athleticism to score the ball easily when teams are really committed to stopping him on every possession which is precisely what we saw play out against Atlanta. Most of those possessions end with an awkward step back jumper that he doesn't have the legs to hit with regularity. The eye test tells you that this just isn't a guy you can max out without setting your franchise back. If we get a good offer for him, we should take it unless a star becomes available who wants him specifically as their teammate.

[BugginOut]

They are both decent players but we saw how far theyre from the other teams number 1 and 2 guys. I mean you have Embiid and Simmons, you have KD and Kyrie/James, you have Giannis and Middleton, Trae and Collins. I expect Rozier and Melo to be better next year(they were about to be this season as well, then Melo got injured). Bam and Jimmy are better. Tatum and Brown - no contest. Even Beal and Russ surpass them undoubtedly.

It depends if Randle plays like he did this season. Cause if Randle puts up similar stats and RJ takes another leap (something like 22/7/4). Than I definitely have them over Rozier/Melo, Beal/Russ.

They are in the same tier as Trae/Collins and Jimmy/Bam

Watch on YouTube

Again I’m basing this on the regular season.

Trae’s on a whole different level, but Collins really isn’t anything special. And they are both negative defenders

Jimmy is All-NBA level. But I’m not sold on Bam, he’s way too passive for me in the offensive end

[BugginOut]

They are both decent players but we saw how far theyre from the other teams number 1 and 2 guys. I mean you have Embiid and Simmons, you have KD and Kyrie/James, you have Giannis and Middleton, Trae and Collins. I expect Rozier and Melo to be better next year(they were about to be this season as well, then Melo got injured). Bam and Jimmy are better. Tatum and Brown - no contest. Even Beal and Russ surpass them undoubtedly.

It depends if Randle plays like he did this season. Cause if Randle puts up similar stats and RJ takes another leap (something like 22/7/4). Than I definitely have them over Rozier/Melo, Beal/Russ.

They are in the same tier as Trae/Collins and Jimmy/Bam

I would not expect Randle to shoot 42% from 3 next season.

Why specifically? People say this is an outlier 3 point shooting year for the league, but this increase wasn’t even large from last season and is in line with how the league has been trending.

Unless you think Randle was just shook by crowds (which I don’t think is the reason he performed badly) I still expect him to shoot over 38% next season.

[Chanel Bomber]

I feel like people were so happy with the statistical leap that Randle took that they weren't actually watching him on a play to play basis. There's no doubt that he had a phenomenal regular season where he put up some really nice numbers. There's also no doubt that even in his good games, everything other than a spot up looks extremely labored and difficult. He doesn't make anything look easy on offense. Even when he's hot, any possession where he's being defended with any intensity looks difficult. He doesn't have the skill or the athleticism to score the ball easily when teams are really committed to stopping him on every possession which is precisely what we saw play out against Atlanta. Most of those possessions end with an awkward step back jumper that he doesn't have the legs to hit with regularity. The eye test tells you that this just isn't a guy you can max out without setting your franchise back. If we get a good offer for him, we should take it unless a star becomes available who wants him specifically as their teammate.

It's funny you mention this because that's the thing that motivated me to start this thread. It's the visual impression of watching Randle (and RJ) play that troubled me. Then I started digging into some of the numbers to corroborate that impression and I noticed those patterns of scoring inefficiency from those two players and of stellar bench play from the Knicks.

But Julius and RJ generally seem to be forcing. It doesn't look natural when they play, it looks difficult. And in fact, they can't get easy baskets at the rim, because they're not the most athletic guys to begin with and they don't have great touch around the rim.

[cgf]

It depends if Randle plays like he did this season. Cause if Randle puts up similar stats and RJ takes another leap (something like 22/7/4). Than I definitely have them over Rozier/Melo, Beal/Russ.

They are in the same tier as Trae/Collins and Jimmy/Bam

I would not expect Randle to shoot 42% from 3 next season.

Why specifically? People say this is an outlier 3 point shooting year for the league, but this increase wasn’t even large from last season and is in line with how the league has been trending.

Unless you think Randle was just shook by crowds (which I don’t think is the reason he performed badly) I still expect him to shoot over 38% next season.

Yeah. It's not like this is a guy who has been taking a bunch of 3s for years & suddenly had an outlier season. This dude only started taking them 3 years ago...look at his 3's a game or 3's per 36 prior to arriving in New Orleans, he was barely taking any...so why shouldn't he have made progress in his 3rd season of working on his 3ball? Especially with his work ethic

[HarthorneWingo]

It depends if Randle plays like he did this season. Cause if Randle puts up similar stats and RJ takes another leap (something like 22/7/4). Than I definitely have them over Rozier/Melo, Beal/Russ.

They are in the same tier as Trae/Collins and Jimmy/Bam

I would not expect Randle to shoot 42% from 3 next season.

Why specifically? People say this is an outlier 3 point shooting year for the league, but this increase wasn’t even large from last season and is in line with how the league has been trending.

Unless you think Randle was just shook by crowds (which I don’t think is the reason he performed badly) I still expect him to shoot over 38% next season.

First, I just think that as a GM, you need to assume things that way when looking at improving the roster. Not everything goes as one would expect. Second, I think that Randle jumping from 27% to 42% is just such a stark difference that a slight regression would make sense.

[Chanel Bomber]

Wait? Randle and RJ aren't as efficient as the best players in the NBA or as players on stacked teams? That is amazing.

Julius and RJ's limitations explain (partly) why the Knicks aren't one of those stacked teams.

You can't blame everyone around RJ and Randle for being insufficient and not look at them too.

We aren’t a stacked team because we don’t have one or two top players, that is the case regardless of Randle and RJ.

Commentary on a twenty year old RJ being inefficient is even more meaningless given he’s nowhere near a finished product.

I don’t view either of them as a top player on a top team, but they can both be a significant part of a top team.

I'm a big believer in RJ and I expect him to improve every year for the foreseeable future. However, not only is he inefficient, he's inefficient in a limited 3&D role and he can't create his own offense. That's not very inspiring. While I believe his work ethic is eventually going to pay off, the idea is purely hypothetical. We must be realistic and admit that he hasn't shown signs that he'll ever turn into a consistent shot creator, let alone be efficient in that role. I personally believe he'll have a Jimmy Butler career arc, but based on what we've seen, we can't just count on him getting there.

There's no avenue for us to actually get "one or two top players" unless we part with a significant chunk of assets, seeing there's no one but Chris Paul and Kawhi Leonard who fits that description on the free agent market this summer. Randle's extension and possibly Mitch's and then RJ's will limit our flexibility and our ability to get one of those players as of 2022, hence their situation here is relevant.

I thought IQ and Obi showed a lot more than RJ and Julius did in the first round series against Atlanta. They didn't get the minutes, and they're not as well-rounded players as RJ and Julius as of today, but they get easier baskets, and they look like they could be more efficient players than those two down the line. My point is, if trades are needed to upgrade the roster, maybe IQ and Obi shouldn't be viewed merely as trade assets. Maybe they're the actual keepers. Just a thought.

[BugginOut]

Julius and RJ's limitations explain (partly) why the Knicks aren't one of those stacked teams.

You can't blame everyone around RJ and Randle for being insufficient and not look at them too.

We aren’t a stacked team because we don’t have one or two top players, that is the case regardless of Randle and RJ.

Commentary on a twenty year old RJ being inefficient is even more meaningless given he’s nowhere near a finished product.

I don’t view either of them as a top player on a top team, but they can both be a significant part of a top team.

I'm a big believer in RJ and I expect him to improve every year for the foreseeable future. However, not only is he inefficient, he's inefficient in a limited 3&D role and he can't create his own offense. That's not very inspiring. While I believe his work ethic is eventually going to pay off, the idea is purely hypothetical. We must be realistic and admit that he hasn't shown signs that he'll ever turn into a consistent shot creator, let alone be efficient in that role. I personally believe he'll have a Jimmy Butler career arc, but based on what we've seen, we can't just count on him getting there.

There's no avenue for us to actually get "one or two top players" unless we part with a significant chunk of assets, seeing there's no one but Chris Paul and Kawhi Leonard who fits that description on the free agent market this summer. Randle's extension and possibly Mitch's and then RJ's will limit our flexibility and our ability to get one of those players as of 2022, hence their situation here is relevant.

I thought IQ and Obi showed a lot more than RJ and Julius did in the first round series against Atlanta. They didn't get the minutes, and they're not as well-rounded players as RJ and Julius as of today, but they get easier baskets, and they look like they could be more efficient players than those two down the line. My point is, if trades are needed to upgrade the roster, maybe IQ and Obi shouldn't be viewed merely as trade assets. Maybe they're the actual keepers. Just a thought.

I view RJ’s shot creation potential more in the P&R than in the face up ISO like a Tatum or Randle. I honestly think the player RJ should model his game after is ironically SGA, cause RJ can become a bigger version of what SGA is right now.

Watch on YouTube

Shai is one of the leaders in drives per game and likes to do his damage at the rim like RJ. He’s not super quick and uses screens a lot to open up his drives. The difference is that Shai has the threat of the pull up 3 to be effective in the P&R. If RJ learns to shoot 3’s off the dribble I can see his shot creating and playmaking abilities open up like we saw Randle did this year.

And I disagree about how we should value IQ and Obi. Obi definitely balled out and deserves his applause, but IQ was completely awful outside 2 runs in the first and last games. Atlanta didn’t let him get anything on offense and he averaged 6 points on .400 TS% for the series. He needs to learn to score inside consistently if he wants to take the next step.