2020 Presidential Election (All Serious POVs Welcome)

[HarthorneWingo]

Sorry Stannis,

I deleted this tweet you posted when trying to fix the thread:

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ty.

I was wondering what that was? I thought my browser was glitched lol.

[Stannis]

More poll shifts

Rasmussen actually shift 3 points to Biden

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YouGov, 2 points to Biden

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Opinium has Biden winning big in FL and Wisconsin

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Qriously has Biden +5

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[Pointgod]

Stolen from another politics thread.

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Spoiler:

We have the first high quality live caller poll in a while from Ann Selzer, a national poll with Democrats +8 (49%-41%) done right after the Republican national convention ended, which should put all discussions of a tightening on ice for a while. The poll, a Likely Voter screen poll with a whiter electorate in 2020 than 2016, shows Joe Biden firmly ahead, and without any crosstab based landmines on his way to winning the White House.

Let’s start with the race data, where Joe Biden is only losing whites by 3% on route to this D+8 result. It is the second poll this week to show this kind of white support, and unlike AtlasIntel, they don’t have Trump winning 29% of Blacks and 41% of Hispanics. For Democrats worried about the fact that there is 10% not going to either Biden or Trump, fret not: 7% of whites are not voting for either major party candidate, whereas 13% of non-whites are, meaning that any expected split of undecideds should break to Biden, and any notion of a shy Trump voter should be tossed out the window.

Dig into the possible sources of polling error, and it doesn’t exist. Some pollsters are getting samples that are more diverse since 2016, and run some risk of getting a sample low on non-degree whites – but here, only 25% of the sample is non-white, as opposed to 26% in 2016. They’re not missing white voters, and their education splits for white voters (after some analysis, given what was released in the press release didn’t explicitly say it) looks quite like what the NYT/Siena had the last time they polled. And, for any claim that may arise, this poll was low on Biden in March – they only had a 4% lead when others flirted with the high single digits.

Suffolk is also out with a national poll, D+7 (50%-43%) – and both pollsters polled right after the RNC. The chances are that these numbers are artificially good for Trump, if anything, and given he’s losing badly, that’s a horrible sign for him. Could he come back? I mean, I guess anything is possible, but he is running out of time and of potential reasons he would come back. It was supposed to be the Conventions, but at this point he either got a convention bump – which means this D+8 is really a D+10 with the bump taken out – or he never got one at all, which would mean that even four nights of free airtime can’t save him. I’m not sure if either is preferable for the President, but both are horrible for him.

Nothing as of right now suggests that the result of the November election will be anything but a blowout for the former Vice President. Trump needs to shake up this race to get rid of that fundamental truth. His convention failed to do it, his law and order attacks have failed to do it, and he has lost five and a half months now in his quest to turn this ship around. Refusing to live in that reality isn’t smart punditry, it is denial of facts, and as day follows night, Donald Trump is on track to be the first one-term President of my life. After all, he’s running out of time to stop it.

I'll believe it when I see it. I just hope you're right.

Get out and vote for Biden. Encourage other people you know too as well. I’m sure you have friends and family all over the country. Make sure everyone is aware of how voting works on their states.

[GONYK]

Sorry Stannis,

I deleted this tweet you posted when trying to fix the thread:

Read on Twitter

?s=20

ty.

I was wondering what that was? I thought my browser was glitched lol.

Getting back to this, I think it really illustrates how the Electoral College is anti-democratic, in the original sense of the word.

It has the ability to invalidate the will of the people.

[Clyde_Style]

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Didn't we establish this pollster is no more credible than Rasmussen?

You sure seem eager to promote them

Not that I know of. That might have been Emerson polls.

I've been posting all kinds of polls. I'm not promoting anything. But you just don't like when I post something that isn't largely favoring Biden.

No, that is not what I was doing. We've discussed this pollster when you've used them several times and why they are likely compromised data like Rasmussen. Don't deflect that back on me.

[GONYK]

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This is a very interesting result from the Quinnipiac poll.

The media narrative was that this "Law and Order against the brown people" thing only had upside for Trump. The data has not agreed so far.

[Stannis]

Sorry Stannis,

I deleted this tweet you posted when trying to fix the thread:

Read on Twitter

?s=20

ty.

I was wondering what that was? I thought my browser was glitched lol.

Getting back to this, I think it really illustrates how the Electoral College is anti-democratic, in the original sense of the word.

It has the ability to invalidate the will of the people.

Agreed. The idea is that "50% of the population shouldn't decide for the other side". But we literally just had an election where 46% decided it.

The amount of voting power people in the midwest have compared to other states is insane. They have too much power, especially in the senate.

Now I'm not saying let's forge about our farmers. But if we are going to let land decide our voting power, why stop there? Let's let net worth & income dictate voting power as well. Or how many children a voter has. It's an endless line of thinking really. That's why each vote should count the same.

[HarthorneWingo]

Stolen from another politics thread.

Read on Twitter

Spoiler:

We have the first high quality live caller poll in a while from Ann Selzer, a national poll with Democrats +8 (49%-41%) done right after the Republican national convention ended, which should put all discussions of a tightening on ice for a while. The poll, a Likely Voter screen poll with a whiter electorate in 2020 than 2016, shows Joe Biden firmly ahead, and without any crosstab based landmines on his way to winning the White House.

Let’s start with the race data, where Joe Biden is only losing whites by 3% on route to this D+8 result. It is the second poll this week to show this kind of white support, and unlike AtlasIntel, they don’t have Trump winning 29% of Blacks and 41% of Hispanics. For Democrats worried about the fact that there is 10% not going to either Biden or Trump, fret not: 7% of whites are not voting for either major party candidate, whereas 13% of non-whites are, meaning that any expected split of undecideds should break to Biden, and any notion of a shy Trump voter should be tossed out the window.

Dig into the possible sources of polling error, and it doesn’t exist. Some pollsters are getting samples that are more diverse since 2016, and run some risk of getting a sample low on non-degree whites – but here, only 25% of the sample is non-white, as opposed to 26% in 2016. They’re not missing white voters, and their education splits for white voters (after some analysis, given what was released in the press release didn’t explicitly say it) looks quite like what the NYT/Siena had the last time they polled. And, for any claim that may arise, this poll was low on Biden in March – they only had a 4% lead when others flirted with the high single digits.

Suffolk is also out with a national poll, D+7 (50%-43%) – and both pollsters polled right after the RNC. The chances are that these numbers are artificially good for Trump, if anything, and given he’s losing badly, that’s a horrible sign for him. Could he come back? I mean, I guess anything is possible, but he is running out of time and of potential reasons he would come back. It was supposed to be the Conventions, but at this point he either got a convention bump – which means this D+8 is really a D+10 with the bump taken out – or he never got one at all, which would mean that even four nights of free airtime can’t save him. I’m not sure if either is preferable for the President, but both are horrible for him.

Nothing as of right now suggests that the result of the November election will be anything but a blowout for the former Vice President. Trump needs to shake up this race to get rid of that fundamental truth. His convention failed to do it, his law and order attacks have failed to do it, and he has lost five and a half months now in his quest to turn this ship around. Refusing to live in that reality isn’t smart punditry, it is denial of facts, and as day follows night, Donald Trump is on track to be the first one-term President of my life. After all, he’s running out of time to stop it.

I'll believe it when I see it. I just hope you're right.

Get out and vote for Biden. Encourage other people you know too as well. I’m sure you have friends and family all over the country. Make sure everyone is aware of how voting works on their states.

I will. He’s up +31 here

[GONYK]

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Nate meant to say that the data shows Black and Hispanics feel LESS safe with Trump

[Stannis]

I'll believe it when I see it. I just hope you're right.

Get out and vote for Biden. Encourage other people you know too as well. I’m sure you have friends and family all over the country. Make sure everyone is aware of how voting works on their states.

I will. He’s up +31 here

I have some family in swing states that I tried to get to vote. But they were like "ehhhh, sounds like too much work".

This is America, fellas.

[Stannis]

Don't underestimate Kayne or underestimate the People's Party

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Should be interesting how it affects the election

[Clyde_Style]

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This is a very interesting result from the Quinnipiac poll.

The media narrative was that this "Law and Order against the brown people" thing only had upside for Trump. The data has not agreed so far.

Trump's over-simplication of any issue, but particularly the law and order premise where he happens to be a prime cause of violence, probably insults the intelligence of too may people to be taken at face value. His pandering to his base is probably alienating some who would be willing to consider his premise if he were not dumbing it down like he does. Trump seems to think he is connecting with some archetypal suburban housewife when in reality he is probably earning that targeted person's contempt with his gross characterizations.

IOW, Trump was banking on everyone being equally stupid.

[Pointgod]

Sorry Stannis,

I deleted this tweet you posted when trying to fix the thread:

Read on Twitter

?s=20

ty.

I was wondering what that was? I thought my browser was glitched lol.

Getting back to this, I think it really illustrates how the Electoral College is anti-democratic, in the original sense of the word.

It has the ability to invalidate the will of the people.

Also think about the reality on the ground. The focus of the election has under 10 states. Both Biden and Trump are going to put the their time and resources in a very specific set of states. This disenfranchises both Democrats and Republicans in safe states.

[Sark]

What is the difference between a chick pea and a garbanzo bean?

Trump has never had a garbanzo bean on him.

[GONYK]

Another interesting nugget in the polling

[Pointgod]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

This is a very interesting result from the Quinnipiac poll.

The media narrative was that this "Law and Order against the brown people" thing only had upside for Trump. The data has not agreed so far.

Trump's over-simplication of any issue, but particularly the law and order premise where he happens to be a prime cause of violence, probably insults the intelligence of too may people to be taken at face value. His pandering to his base is probably alienating some who would be willing to consider his premise if he were not dumbing it down like he does. Trump seems to think he is connecting with some archetypal suburban housewife when in reality he is probably earning that targeted person's contempt with his gross characterizations.

IOW, Trump was banking on everyone being equally stupid.

Also if you think about it safe means a lot of things to different people. I’m sure coronavirus, racial violence, gun violence factored into if people feel safe. I definitely think his law and order message scared enough white people to influence the polls but the problem is that Trump is the incumbent. he’s already demonstrated that he can’t control anything and I’m sure it doesn’t help when he can’t be bothered to condemn vigilantes and violence from his supporters.

[Jeff Van Gully]

Another interesting nugget in the polling

that's absolutely terrifying

[Clyde_Style]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

This is a very interesting result from the Quinnipiac poll.

The media narrative was that this "Law and Order against the brown people" thing only had upside for Trump. The data has not agreed so far.

Trump's over-simplication of any issue, but particularly the law and order premise where he happens to be a prime cause of violence, probably insults the intelligence of too may people to be taken at face value. His pandering to his base is probably alienating some who would be willing to consider his premise if he were not dumbing it down like he does. Trump seems to think he is connecting with some archetypal suburban housewife when in reality he is probably earning that targeted person's contempt with his gross characterizations.

IOW, Trump was banking on everyone being equally stupid.

Also if you think about it safe means a lot of things to different people. I’m sure coronavirus, racial violence, gun violence factored into if people feel safe. I definitely think his law and order message scared enough white people to influence the polls but the problem is that Trump is the incumbent. he’s already demonstrated that he can’t control anything and I’m sure it doesn’t help when he can’t be bothered to condemn vigilantes and violence from his supporters.

Yes, even someone who might be inclined to vote for Trump may also think this guy will only bring more chaos. Trump has basically guaranteed he will lose that person.

[Pointgod]

Another interesting nugget in the polling

that's absolutely terrifying

For the people in this thread that ask why you have Republicans from the Lincoln Project and Republicans going against Trump, here’s your answer. Imagine having to deal with violent QAnon crazies for the rest of your career. Better to have a blue tsunami in 2020 vs giving these people more power.

[Stannis]

If the Clintons and the dems are all pedophiles and orchestrated a world order to take down Trump, and only Trump can fight them off... Do they not know that Trump was friends with the Clintons and Epstein? If somebody is going to take them all down, why would it be Trump? In order to do that, he would have to sacrifice himself as well. And Trump just doesn't strike me as that guy at all.