OT: The Official COVID/Omicron Variant+ thread

[thebuzzardman]

Why Delta is worse within: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02039-y

[Sark]

One of my favorite subreddits

https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward

The anti vax, anti mask, covid deniers, who eventually find out the truth.

[thebuzzardman]

One of my favorite subreddits

https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward

The anti vax, anti mask, covid deniers, who eventually find out the truth.

I believe I got the above link from there

[Clyde_Style]

Lenny believed in Joe Rogan

DOH!!

[HarthorneWingo]

One of my favorite subreddits

https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward

The anti vax, anti mask, covid deniers, who eventually find out the truth THE HARD WAY.

Fixed.

[movingon]

You just said what I did. The only difference...you seem to believe it is more deadly. Whatever you read suggested that. What I read suggests the opposite. That is all. Most viruses go the way described.

Many predict, however, that COVID-19 seems likely to become endemic, potentially being less dangerous to much of the population. Indeed countries like Singapore are starting to look to a future in which COVID-19 is yet another infectious disease like flu that can be managed with good public health measures such as regular vaccination.

What I'm saying, quite clearly, is that it's not relevant what the virus *should* be doing.
It's not doing that, and no one can credible tell you when it will.
That's why we're not in "Get your shot if your worried." mode. Rather, people are being coerced into doing what is obviously needed.
If you're reading the wrong thing, well then you will continue to live in a very contradictory and confusing world, and I'm sorry for that.

I would even argue that, until otherwise told by our most competent infectious disease experts, we should be erring on the side of caution. In other words, since we don't know yet what direction the virus is heading, we have to treat it as if it's going to continue to get worse. That's the only mindset that will get us out of this mess ... and other messes, quite honestly. Like climate disasters. No one took that shyt seriously either. And by "seriously", I mean assuming the worst case scenario when it comes to dealing with Mother Nature.

As an aside, it occurs to me that the reason people are mistrustful of science is that there's a basic lack of scientific literacy, particular around the fact that any measurement has an associated (statistical and systematic) uncertainty.
Therefore, the first measurement you make is normally going to be less sensitive than subsequent ones, since the data quality generally improves with time.
When a new variant emerges, one would like to compare the fatality rate (or hospitalization rate or whatever) with the previously dominant variant. A first study will have limited sensitivity such that they will only be sensitive to a very large difference between the variants. When this study is performed and no difference is found, the general public understands that there is no difference between the variants. That's not correct. Rather, no difference was found within the sensitivity of the study. If the effect was larger, it might have been observable.
Subsequent more sensitive studies may well be able to tease the difference between the two variants.
While it may seem obvious to see a difference in fatality of 50%, in the real world that may not be the case due to systematic effects in your data (differences in the population effected by the two variants, evolution of covid treatment, etc.)

The general public perceives that science is flp-flopping when this is simply a natural consequence of improving data.
Ideally, each study would put an exclusion limit, e.g., we can rule out a difference in fatality of the two strains up X%. Unfortunately, such a standard is not realistic for these kind of studies.

[Clyde_Style]

What I'm saying, quite clearly, is that it's not relevant what the virus *should* be doing.
It's not doing that, and no one can credible tell you when it will.
That's why we're not in "Get your shot if your worried." mode. Rather, people are being coerced into doing what is obviously needed.
If you're reading the wrong thing, well then you will continue to live in a very contradictory and confusing world, and I'm sorry for that.

I would even argue that, until otherwise told by our most competent infectious disease experts, we should be erring on the side of caution. In other words, since we don't know yet what direction the virus is heading, we have to treat it as if it's going to continue to get worse. That's the only mindset that will get us out of this mess ... and other messes, quite honestly. Like climate disasters. No one took that shyt seriously either. And by "seriously", I mean assuming the worst case scenario when it comes to dealing with Mother Nature.

As an aside, it occurs to me that the reason people are mistrustful of science is that there's a basic lack of scientific literacy, particular around the fact that any measurement has an associated (statistical and systematic) uncertainty.
Therefore, the first measurement you make is normally going to be less sensitive than subsequent ones, since the data quality generally improves with time.
When a new variant emerges, one would like to compare the fatality rate (or hospitalization rate or whatever) with the previously dominant variant. A first study will have limited sensitivity such that they will only be sensitive to a very large difference between the variants. When this study is performed and no difference is found, the general public understands that there is no difference between the variants. That's not correct. Rather, no difference was found within the sensitivity of the study. If the effect was larger, it might have been observable.
Subsequent more sensitive studies may well be able to tease the difference between the two variants.
While it may seem obvious to see a difference in fatality of 50%, in the real world that may not be the case due to systematic effects in your data (differences in the population effected by the two variants, evolution of covid treatment, etc.)

The general public perceives that science is flp-flopping when this is simply a natural consequence of improving data.
Ideally, each study would put an exclusion limit, e.g., we can rule out a difference in fatality of the two strains up X%. Unfortunately, such a standard is not realistic for these kind of studies.

Some try to scapegoat Fauci for not always being able to give a precise appraisal of a moving target. It is wretched, but some of that behavior comes from a lack of appreciation for the task of scientists dealing with a pandemic and the other is sheer conspiratorial ignorance and malice.

[movingon]

^^^ True indeed. To be fair though, the CDC has made real mistakes. For example, they rolled back their indoor mask guidance too hastily. Delta was already circulating, and we could see cases taking off in the UK, despite vaccination. There was no need to move so quickly, and that move raised eyebrows already at the time. They were purely trying to placate pandemic fatigue, which was a mistake.

[Clyde_Style]

^^^ True indeed. To be fair though, the CDC has made real mistakes. For example, they rolled back their indoor mask guidance too hastily. Delta was already circulating, and we could see cases taking off in the UK, despite vaccination. There was no need to move so quickly, and that move raised eyebrows already at the time. They were purely trying to placate pandemic fatigue, which was a mistake.

That’s the rub. Can an agency mandated to be driven by science remain immune from other issues impacting policy recommendations? Ideally yes, oftentimes it is not so easy. The CDC was at loggerheads with Trump because he’s a freaking moron and was making it impossible to do their job. But even now you have to expect their leadership consults with the executive branch before making highly impactful decisions.

[Fat Kat]

Read on Twitter

[Barcs]

Everything is going to be a complete fcking mess in two months. You watch. I bet by November at the latest, the schools will be closing down again; businesses, restaurants, and bars will be closing down again until we can get the numbers back to some level of reasonableness. And who knows when that'll be, for Christ's sake.

I lost four relatives this year including my dad (100 years old!) and my closest cousin (69 years old) who was my fishing Guru and buddy. We were just talking about our lists of potential destinations to retire at. Neither died from COVID. I can't even watch the news anymore. Everything is out of our control and depressing. Next summer is going to be Hell.

I meant to reply to this earlier. I'm so sorry to hear about your relatives dying. I had a similar situation with my mother-in-law's mom. It was crazy, the day she turned 100, she collapsed and went to the hospital. From there it was down hill and needed special care from then on. She ended up dying a week before her 101th birthday. My grandfather used to joke around a lot and say that the first 100 years are the hardest, but this was the exact opposite. Either way, making it to 100 is a incredible accomplishment.

Thanks for reaching out, Barcs. I bet she lived a remarkable life and it sounds like she was loved and cared for.

Longevity - Mike Francesa would call them “accumulators” in the sports’ context - has gotten some players into the Hall of Fame. I think that’s probably true for the rest of us “normies” to some extent. When you live that long, you get to touch a lot of lives and experience a lot of things that many others to get to.

Of course, there are others you seem to live three lifetimes by the age of 50.

Agreed, that's why I always advocate celebrating the life, rather than mourning the death. I try to hold onto the good memories if I'm feeling down. I'll be damn lucky to live that long. So incredible!

[Barcs]

Except the vaccinated are also spreading the virus. Many walk around with no mask acting entitled while shaming others.

This is a pandemic of a virus that will mutate its way through our immune response until it is an afterthought. The hysteria needs to stop. If your high risk.. protect yourself. If your scared... protect yourself. That's it. The vaccines only protect the vaccinated from worse symptoms. If it stopped the spread... different story.

I got my shot and wear my mask. I try to social distance but... people don't care anymore. It's a chore trying to avoid them now. Stores are way lax with masking rules.

Who wants to live in a nanny state? Giving way to much power to the govt is a bad idea. They have trampled the constitution as it is.

It's true that people don't care anymore and honestly I think that's harmful, whether vaxxed or not. The kids under 12 still can't get vaccinated, so I choose to remain vigilant. Delta variant also has a much higher transmission rate. That's the main reason I still stay away from big public events and still wear masks in the grocery store despite all the triggered people staring at me. The only time I don't wear masks is if I am by myself, outside with enough distance or with other people that I know that are vaccinated and not stupid about it.

The constitution hasn't really been trampled, pretty much all of the covid measures are temporary until we can get a hold on this thing.

[Barcs]

She was sick for 5 days. That was it. Fever... tired... lost taste/smell mild cough. All better now. The thing is... from what I have learned... the delta and any other variant should be weaker than the original. Typically... that's how it works. So... while it may be more easily transmitted... it should be weaker in terms of symptoms. Not gonna die on that hill but... that's how this works from what LITTLE I have learned.

Vax or not... this virus will run its course in due time. Thankfully... the shots help make that less damaging. People should take that into account when deciding on the vax. Not internet memes about freedoms and rights.

Yeah, until a new variant arises that is far worse thanks to people spreading covid constantly in the name of FREEDUMB. The more vaccinated people we have, the less likely that is to happen.

[thebuzzardman]

Lenny believed in Joe Rogan

DOH!!

Take DMT, reach enlightenment, don't vax, die anyway.

[thebuzzardman]

Read on Twitter

Figured the medical-insurance complex would find a way to zero out more bank accounts

[DOT]

Lenny believed in Joe Rogan

DOH!!

Take DMT, reach enlightenment, don't vax, die anyway.

Joe Rogan is Gwyneth Paltrow for men

Change my mind.

[Clyde_Style]

Lenny believed in Joe Rogan

DOH!!

Take DMT, reach enlightenment, don't vax, die anyway.

Joe Rogan is Gwyneth Paltrow for men

Change my mind.

Let’s talk about the upcoming Joe Rogan vs. Gwyneth Paltrow cage fight in the UFC thread

[Fat Kat]

Read on Twitter

[stuporman]

Lenny believed in Joe Rogan

DOH!!

Take DMT, reach enlightenment, don't vax, die anyway.

Joe Rogan is Gwyneth Paltrow for men

Change my mind.

He puts the magic yoni egg in another orifice.

[BKlutch]

Take DMT, reach enlightenment, don't vax, die anyway.

Joe Rogan is Gwyneth Paltrow for men

Change my mind.

He puts the magic yoni egg in another orifice.

It's reason enough to dislike him. But wait, there's more!