OT: Russia-Ukraine War

[E-Balla]

I would prefer the US stay out of it. There’s more immediate threats to safety and democracy and our livelihood all around us here within our own citizenry and our own economic system, I don’t want to spend any money trying to arm Azov Regimen or whatever ukranian neo-Nazi militias to fight against them either. Not one bullet not one missile not one more dollar and not one boot on the ground. Hope it’s over quick. Also putin bad. Someone’s prolly gonna be mad about this but whatever

Stand for what's right.

Read on Twitter

At the end of the day remember this is why we're going to get involved. Russia provides 34% of the EU's gas and 27% of their oil. If we cut off that supply chain the US can fill the gaps making billions in the process.

[j4remi]

Following geopolitics is obtuse as hell. I really don't know what the best approach to any of this would have been. I will say that I didn't think Biden's or NATO's approach at-large looked much like sincere attempts to de-escalate to me. But that could just be difference in philosophy of how to de-escalate. I don't think military threats or sanctions are particularly effective strategies for de-escalation. Military threats encourage the threatened group to seek alliances, build more might, or act quickly to establish their footholds. Sanctions seem to force hardliners to isolate and/or work with other hardliners rather than cooperate.

That approach just seems likely to fail to me, when I recall other examples of sanctions and military might.

I will say this failure is bipartisan. It's not the fault of one administration because these types of conflicts take a long time and a LOT of decisions to build-up and occur. The U.S. foreign policy of "might makes right" runs through both political parties' leadership anyway, so you won't see major differences (that whole quid pro quo mess is a bit of an outlier though). I think as yet another conflict rises with many others on the pipeline either near or far...we probably need a new approach to foreign conflicts. I'm not sure what will work, but what has been practiced flops too often.

And at the end of the day, we can play Monday morning QB from the comfort of our homes. But people in these conflict zones are facing circumstances that are nightmarish and hard to imagine going back to normal. So prayers up for Ukraine and all its citizens. I hope there's some way to calm this mess down, but I sure as hell don't have an answer for what those avenues are.

[E-Balla]

In a few years we're going to use similar tactics to justify starting a war in Taiwan. I can see it coming now.

[DOT]

Following geopolitics is obtuse as hell. I really don't know what the best approach to any of this would have been. I will say that I didn't think Biden's or NATO's approach at-large looked much like sincere attempts to de-escalate to me. But that could just be difference in philosophy of how to de-escalate. I don't think military threats or sanctions are particularly effective strategies for de-escalation. Military threats encourage the threatened group to seek alliances, build more might, or act quickly to establish their footholds. Sanctions seem to force hardliners to isolate and/or work with other hardliners rather than cooperate.

That approach just seems likely to fail to me, when I recall other examples of sanctions and military might.

I will say this failure is bipartisan. It's not the fault of one administration because these types of conflicts take a long time and a LOT of decisions to build-up and occur. The U.S. foreign policy of "might makes right" runs through both political parties' leadership anyway, so you won't see major differences (that whole quid pro quo mess is a bit of an outlier though). I think as yet another conflict rises with many others on the pipeline either near or far...we probably need a new approach to foreign conflicts. I'm not sure what will work, but what has been practiced flops too often.

And at the end of the day, we can play Monday morning QB from the comfort of our homes. But people in these conflict zones are facing circumstances that are nightmarish and hard to imagine going back to normal. So prayers up for Ukraine and all its citizens. I hope there's some way to calm this mess down, but I sure as hell don't have an answer for what those avenues are.

I think you do have to put a lot of the blame on Obama for not properly responding to Russia annexing Crimea

That was sort of the trial balloon to see how NATO would respond, and we blew it

There's no real solution to this if you want to stop Russia besides putting actual troops on the ground, which we shouldn't. This isn't a conflict I want American lives lost over, and I think most people would agree

But the problem is, when you allow people like Putin to take what they want, it makes future conflict inevitable. Because he's not gonna stop with Ukraine, he wants to re-form the USSR under him as its leader

Then you know China is watching because they want to do something similar with Taiwan. But that's a bit more murky of a situation because we're much more tied economically to Taiwan than Ukraine, even if we can't openly affirm their independence.

[Zenzibar]

Read on Twitter

[Zenzibar]

I would prefer the US stay out of it. There’s more immediate threats to safety and democracy and our livelihood all around us here within our own citizenry and our own economic system, I don’t want to spend any money trying to arm Azov Regimen or whatever ukranian neo-Nazi militias to fight against them either. Not one bullet not one missile not one more dollar and not one boot on the ground. Hope it’s over quick. Also putin bad. Someone’s prolly gonna be mad about this but whatever

Stand for what's right.

Read on Twitter

At the end of the day remember this is why we're going to get involved. Russia provides 34% of the EU's gas and 27% of their oil. If we cut off that supply chain the US can fill the gaps making billions in the process.

Makes one wonder if this was the end game all along. To push Ukraine's leadership and provoke Russia in order to shut this project down and make billion$ for the elites.

Isn't recent wars mostly about $?

[thebuzzardman]

Following geopolitics is obtuse as hell. I really don't know what the best approach to any of this would have been. I will say that I didn't think Biden's or NATO's approach at-large looked much like sincere attempts to de-escalate to me. But that could just be difference in philosophy of how to de-escalate. I don't think military threats or sanctions are particularly effective strategies for de-escalation. Military threats encourage the threatened group to seek alliances, build more might, or act quickly to establish their footholds. Sanctions seem to force hardliners to isolate and/or work with other hardliners rather than cooperate.

That approach just seems likely to fail to me, when I recall other examples of sanctions and military might.

I will say this failure is bipartisan. It's not the fault of one administration because these types of conflicts take a long time and a LOT of decisions to build-up and occur. The U.S. foreign policy of "might makes right" runs through both political parties' leadership anyway, so you won't see major differences (that whole quid pro quo mess is a bit of an outlier though). I think as yet another conflict rises with many others on the pipeline either near or far...we probably need a new approach to foreign conflicts. I'm not sure what will work, but what has been practiced flops too often.

And at the end of the day, we can play Monday morning QB from the comfort of our homes. But people in these conflict zones are facing circumstances that are nightmarish and hard to imagine going back to normal. So prayers up for Ukraine and all its citizens. I hope there's some way to calm this mess down, but I sure as hell don't have an answer for what those avenues are.

I think you do have to put a lot of the blame on Obama for not properly responding to Russia annexing Crimea

That was sort of the trial balloon to see how NATO would respond, and we blew it

There's no real solution to this if you want to stop Russia besides putting actual troops on the ground, which we shouldn't. This isn't a conflict I want American lives lost over, and I think most people would agree

But the problem is, when you allow people like Putin to take what they want, it makes future conflict inevitable. Because he's not gonna stop with Ukraine, he wants to re-form the USSR under him as its leader

Then you know China is watching because they want to do something similar with Taiwan. But that's a bit more murky of a situation because we're much more tied economically to Taiwan than Ukraine, even if we can't openly affirm their independence.

Same thing. Would you have gone to war over Russia's traditional access to the Black sea back then too? And Obama did introduce sanctions, which...seemed to come up a lot between the next administration and Russia.

Again, short of war, in area right next to Russia, where they historically outright control or exert major influence, what?

[DOT]

Same thing. Would you have gone to war over Russia's traditional access to the Black sea back then too? And Obama did introduce sanctions, which...seemed to come up a lot between the next administration and Russia.

Again, short of war, in area right next to Russia, where they historically outright control or exert major influence, what?

I think we could have done more in the sanction department. What we did was basically a slap on the wrist

Cause, Russia's economy isn't that good, and it was worse in 2014 iirc. Hindsight's 20/20 of course, but I feel like what's happening now was inevitable, and if we had been more proactive a decade ago, we could've laid the groundwork for being able to do a lot more damage economically to Russia. Maybe it's just wishful thinking

At the end of the day though, yeah the only thing that stops them is actual fighting, which is a no from me.

[dakomish23]

I would prefer the US stay out of it. There’s more immediate threats to safety and democracy and our livelihood all around us here within our own citizenry and our own economic system, I don’t want to spend any money trying to arm Azov Regimen or whatever ukranian neo-Nazi militias to fight against them either. Not one bullet not one missile not one more dollar and not one boot on the ground. Hope it’s over quick. Also putin bad. Someone’s prolly gonna be mad about this but whatever

Stand for what's right.

Read on Twitter

At the end of the day remember this is why we're going to get involved. Russia provides 34% of the EU's gas and 27% of their oil. If we cut off that supply chain the US can fill the gaps making billions in the process.

Makes one wonder if this was the end game all along. To push Ukraine's leadership and provoke Russia in order to shut this project down and make billion$ for the elites.

Isn't recent wars mostly about $?

I was thinking it’s time to liquidate my Exxon & Raytheon positions. Maybe not

[KnicksGadfly]

So I don’t think we can do physical combat but a bunch of you all are fooling yourselves if you think we can ignore this and isolate. Where do you think a lot of the funding for vaccine misinformation comes from? Or a rightest movement revolving around “Christian values” and reclaiming “Western culture”? Or the use of media misinformation? Those strategies were perfected in Eastern Europe before they came to our shores.

[Clyde_Style]

There is no guarantee Putin will remain in power long term. Regardless of this invasion having been planned for for a long time, this is still a risky move on his part. Putin has a strange relationship with the Russian oligarchs. While he created many of them, collectively they can probably exercise regime change if push comes to shove. And the effects on the Russian economy in the present and for some time can push the economic calculations to a head.

Putin would not have launched this attack if he was fully secure internally. It is a calculated gamble on his part that he will be in power long enough to consolidate the gains and survive the fall-out. That remains to be seen.

[Clyde_Style]

So I don’t think we can do physical combat but a bunch of you all are fooling yourselves if you think we can ignore this and isolate. Where do you think a lot of the funding for vaccine misinformation comes from? Or a rightest movement revolving around “Christian values” and reclaiming “Western culture”? Or the use of media misinformation? Those strategies were perfected in Eastern Europe before they came to our shores.

Fox News gets the bulk of their concepts from Kremlin scriptwriters. Anyone who doesn’t understand this already is their audience. Russians are masters of psych ops and Fox News is their American outpost.

[Oscirus]

The way us witdrew from russia encouraged other nations, how us responds here will likely embolden others. US basically said I dare you and putin said k.

[Marty McFly]

Russia's just doing what America does all the time. It's not right but it's what super powers do.

[rammagen]

Look this is mess from the get go for Biden. Even to blame Oboma is thin. It needs all of the nations of Europe intervention and that is the limiting factor. Sanctions are good unless one country breaks them. In this case most European countries get there oil and Gas from Russia so they did not want to rock the boat.

Nato is a very good idea unless you ignore your neighbor like they did with the Ukraine not inviting them to join. IMHO the best bet was to invite the former Russian states that became independent and an invite into the EU or Nato. Sure either joining might have had to pick some slack in the beginning but we do know the Ukraine is the 2nd largest country in Europe and would pull it's own and then add value over time.

Whether Russia liked it or not with the, with money on the line either thru Nato or the EU more countries will more then likely step up to stop this because of the collective impact on all their economies.

Saying The US should not fight is really the question. I agree sending kids off to war for money or any reason is bad, but sending kids off to war when European Nations cant be bothered beyond sanctions to look out for your neighbor or can't be bothered to reign in and stand up to bully is worse.

I say as a Army vet that served in the cold war in the 80s

[nedleeds]

This guy. Lol. The media really **** dumpstered this country.

[matchman]

If I hurt any Biden supporter during my last post, please accept my apology. As an non-American, please also understand I am not that deep into the game of pro or anti-Trump or pro or anti-DP agenda.

The real problem is, Russian aggression was there for decades. Ukraine is not the first victim, Georgia is.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

Back in 2008, well Georgia was mickey mouse country and at that time George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were in the white house. They let go, say a few words and split a portion of Georgia into an unrecognized South Ossetia.

Then there is Crimea in 2014, and now.

As you can see the appetite of Putin will just get bigger and bigger, while we are all waiting him to go to a better place than Earth, but his successor can simply pick up the plan and go on.

While some of us have mentioned the sanction, the consequence is now weaker than before as there is another option called PRC. The scale of economy of China has grown in 15 times in between 2000 to 2021, so while US's sanction can cover most of the countries spending USD, Russia is not so isolated from the world economy besides the gas deal. Or to go further, even if EU cut ties of with Russia, they can still do business with China to stay alive.

And for what USA can do to stop Putin, I would suggest them to take lessons from ...... China, while in a good way.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stealth_War:_How_China_Took_Over_While_America%27s_Elite_Slept

General Spalding has mentioned a book called "Unrestricted warfare", which was written by PLA strategist in 1999, to give advice to China on how to fight silently against USA without bloodshed. Technology, economy, intelligence, propaganda and lots of other non-military actions can be useful.

Finally, I was saddened by the fact that some of posters above would think that my stance is for American soldiers to lose their lives for Hong Kong. No, never in the world I would think in this way. Even for how much I love this place, I am still alive and not leaving, unlike many of my friends and relatives. They chose to give up and start a new life elsewhere. I am thankful for the democratic world like UK, Canada and Australia to absorb them as immigrants.

[matchman]

There is no guarantee Putin will remain in power long term. Regardless of this invasion having been planned for for a long time, this is still a risky move on his part. Putin has a strange relationship with the Russian oligarchs. While he created many of them, collectively they can probably exercise regime change if push comes to shove. And the effects on the Russian economy in the present and for some time can push the economic calculations to a head.

Putin would not have launched this attack if he was fully secure internally. It is a calculated gamble on his part that he will be in power long enough to consolidate the gains and survive the fall-out. That remains to be seen.

That is true, Putin is not as worshipped in Russia as before nowadays. Diplomacy is essentially an extension of internal affairs. And if any obstacle happens in this invasion, it may endanger his legacy and also his next election.

[Capn'O]

I want the people who are blaming this on Biden to tell me exactly what Trump would've done so much better

Harsher sanctions?

Put soldiers on the ground in Ukraine?

No president would've gone to war with Russia over this. Nobody in America wants us to go to war with them over it, getting us involved in another war in a different continent would be one of the most unpopular things a president could do

And remember, Trump is the one who tried to extort Ukraine by witholding military supplies for them for dirt on Biden which didn't even exist. Ukraine's independence as a country clearly does not matter to him

What he would've done is likely try to appease Putin by backing Putin's push to get the Eastern Bloc out of NATO. Which would have been extremely short sighted, at best. Appeasement doesn't work

I mean, also just listen to him talk about it. You can hear what he thinks, all he's doing is talking about how smart Putin is, and how we should be invading Mexico under the same pretenses

The only thing we can do is sanction them, unfortunately. Unless you want to actually start WWIII.

The only possible explanation is that Putin may not have done this with Trump in office because part of the fun of it is putting some egg on an enemy's face i.e. Biden and NATO. Losing in that objective certainly gives him impetus to strike now.


Imo, Buzz is tearing this thread up. There may not be a smart action to take.

[cgf]

So I was born in germany, on the far side of the wall, to a russian father and german mother before spending 2/3rds of my childhood in the US. Though I still feel deeply connected to my german heritage, I've never felt myself to be russian in the same way & felt very out of place whenever I have visited Moscow...but I am still fluent in all three languages, grew up heavily exposed to the cultures, and have gotten to know some aristocrats in both Moscow & Manhattan quite well.


That out of the way, I'm highly dubious that this will go all that differently from how things did in 2008. The biggest differences IMO are that a) Georgia did not sit between Russia & NATO, b) in 2008 there wasn't a project as big as Nord Stream 2 that could be at risk if this starts to spiral too far, and c) Putin's position was more secure in 2008.

That first factor is significant and the reason why anyone over here cares at all, but I'm highly skeptical that it changes the calculus for Russia or Germany by nearly as much as that second factor. Russia's natural gas is crucially important to this transitional stage that germany is in until renewables can fully take over; our manufacturing sector simply can not continue growing as we need it to without that pipeline coming online sooner or later, and without strong german support there can not be a strong european response.

While on the russian side, Nord Stream 2 & the relationship with germany are even more important than increasing their control in the black sea as they get ready for the additions to the South Stream pipeline which they intend to run along the danube into the western european heartland. So if securing russian interests in the blacksea against Erdogan, starts to become a genuine risk to russian interests in the baltic, the costs will simply be too great.

Sure there will be still members of the military elite who will continue to push Putin to retake the old soviet borders so they can create a buffer from NATO again; as well as shrink that european land border that they need to defend...but the oligarchs are more powerful in russia, so their interests are much more influential than the desires of the military.


The wild card is (unsurprisingly) the US; if Biden decides to go in hard, in a way that actually interferes with the long term intentions of the russian oligarchy & that can not be leveraged to their benefit in other areas, then all bets could be off and Putin may feel like he has no choice but to escalate things before the oligarchs finally stop bickering about whom to replace him with.