The uncomfortable "truth" about this season (Julius and RJ)

[3toheadmelo]

Gotta give credit to ATL’s defense. This is what Randle needs to work on this summer

[jvsimonetti0514]

Then why was the starting unit still so ineffective with Rose against Atlanta and IQ/Burks/Obi still effective coming off the bench in that series?

It's an open question.

Rose finished the series with a -10.3 net rating. IQ, Burks and Obi with a -0.6, +2.7, +3.1 respectively. I'm aware it's a small sample size, but it's consistent with the regular season. Obviously the Knicks' starting 5 would've performed better with a competent point guard starting instead of Payton, but I'm wondering if a team featuring RJ (in this current form at least) and Randle doesn't simply have a glass ceiling that's lower than we seem to expect and that the team won't be able to break regardless of the personnel around these two players.

I think this also poses the question of IQ's impact/potential. The team consistently performed better with him on the court, but he didn't play much because old dinosaur Thibs didn't trust him despite ample evidence that he should. IQ might be the actual jewel of this team.

I don't think you're wrong at all about worrying about regression with this team cuz I'm definitely worried about it too. I just think you're forgetting about who the starters were matched up with when you're looking at these numbers. That -10 is pretty much in line with the rest of the starters right? I think you're seeing the Clint Capella effect in those net ratings. He was easily the second best player on the floor in this series and his ability to soft double on Randle destroyed our offense scheme. Randle was third in the league in post ups during the regular season and he only had one in the entire series. Thibs couldn't really find an adjustment to get randle to his spots and you can't forget about the rim protection either. Roses finishing was much better in game 1&2 than it was 3-5. That could be cuz he got banged up but I think it's more cuz of spending more floor time with Capella. I would talk about RJ's finishing but once the calendar hit May that went into the tank. I have a feeling that the bench guys didn't have to deal with as elite of defense as the starters did. Don't forget Hunter is no slouch defensively either.

No you're right of course, that's why I mentioned that (the quality of the opposition) in the original post. A disclaimer if you will.

My question is really about RJ and Randle putting a ceiling on the team. I think their inefficiency as scorers and their inability to get easy baskets need to be put under a microscope because they're pulling our offensive efficiency back down to average (or below-average) instead of elevating it.

Among the 16 playoff teams, they probably were the most inefficient "stars" in the playoffs alongside Westbrook (going by regular season numbers, not even their postseason numbers). All the players who have led their teams to the second round blow RJ and Julius out the water in terms of scoring efficiency.

What made our offense go is Randle's playmaking, not his scoring. It's Bullock's 3s (etc) that really made our offense somewhat efficient. Randle and RJ as scorers are not making this a good team, and that's an issue moving forward. Against smart playoff defenses that don't overreact to Julius's ISO scoring, Randle doesn't have the passing lanes to find our (actual) efficient scoring options.

About your point regarding the post-ups, the Hawks were a match-up nightmare with Capela being able to show since they weren't worried about Noel or Taj. Which is why I was hoping Thibs would go small with Randle at the 5 so McMillan couldn't cheat off our centers.

ahh sorry, I thought I read your post closer than I did. I think I agree with your overall point but disagree on some of the minor observation. Overreacting to Randle in isolation is why the Hawks were able to bog down our offense so much. They took him out of the post and played tight whomever was in the corner and it shut us down. We're definitely going to need to spice up the offense next year on top of upgrading talent.

I know TS% says they're inefficient but 18 ppg on 15 shots or 24 ppg on 19 shots(rounding up) isn't really that terrible. It's not good enough for us to make the second round but it's good enough for us to make the playoffs. We're a team with a second and third option but not really a first and that's going to show up in the efficiency stats. I'm definitely expecting another step in RJ's game that should hopefully alleviate some of the issues we had with on offense but realistically we need a better perimeter player to join these two. I just don't think we need to tear down to look for that person.

[Ghetto Gospel]

Gotta give credit to ATL’s defense. This is what Randle needs to work on this summer

So he needs a right hand, what are the odds he get a right hand over 1 summer?

[BugginOut]

Gotta give credit to ATL’s defense. This is what Randle needs to work on this summer

Or imagine if we had Mitch to lob it up to instead of Taj so Capela can’t cheat off his man

[3toheadmelo]

Gotta give credit to ATL’s defense. This is what Randle needs to work on this summer

So he needs a right hand, what are the odds he get a right hand over 1 summer?

Maybe it’s a slim chance but I wouldn’t rule it out considering his work ethic

[BowlRips]

In terms of RJ, he has plenty of room to keep getting better too. He took a massive step foward this season. Who's to say he stops getting better? Maybe so, maybe not. Just looking at history, he will get better. Just a matter of how much. Plenty of things he can keep improving.

Read on Twitter

Thats the part that bothers me most about this thread.
RJ is 20.
He made improvements to his game that we did not expect to see this season.
Give him a chance to continue improving his game.

Randle was signed to a 2/40mil contract with a team option for 20mil in the 3rd year.
He was overlooked.
I, and almost every other Knick fan, were looking to cut him this past summer.
Now he played himself in All-NBA territory and is only 26.

This season was complete gravy.
Everyone bitching that we are a treadmil is losing focus that we came into the season with the lowest win total and finished the season with the 4th seed.
We still have the same cap flexibility and future draft picks that we did coming into the season that we do on the way out.

Let this play out. Even if the reality is - that as construed we are just an average team - we are alot further along then we thought we are and are future is extremely bright.

[3toheadmelo]

Gotta give credit to ATL’s defense. This is what Randle needs to work on this summer

Or imagine if we had Mitch to lob it up to instead of Taj so Capela can’t cheat off his man

That too, but also we could use a stretch 5 like Myles Turner. Or draft Charles Bassey who can defend as well as Mitch and shown flashes of a decent shooting stroke

[spree2kawhi]

Now is this team special or not?

[Sark]

I don’t understand how people think RJ and Randle aren’t a good fit. They have completely different shot profiles. RJ likes attacking rim and shooting from the wing and the corner 3. Randle operates out of the midrange, likes to shoot 3s from the top of the key and less than 1/5 of his shots come at the rim.

This isn’t Embiid and Simmons. Both players are great shooters and have different games. You can say they aren’t talented enough yet to be a #1 and #2, but that’s a different conversation. What we need to do is upgrade our roster at PG and SF.

Because they are both left handed point forwards. Just because they have different favorite spots doesn't mean they aren't redundant.

Westbrook and Harden work from different spots, but they still overlap skills.

[Chanel Bomber]

In terms of RJ, he has plenty of room to keep getting better too. He took a massive step foward this season. Who's to say he stops getting better? Maybe so, maybe not. Just looking at history, he will get better. Just a matter of how much. Plenty of things he can keep improving.

Read on Twitter

Thats the part that bothers me most about this thread.
RJ is 20.
He made improvements to his game that we did not expect to see this season.
Give him a chance to continue improving his game.

Randle was signed to a 2/40mil contract with a team option for 20mil in the 3rd year.
He was overlooked.
I, and almost every other Knick fan, were looking to cut him this past summer.
Now he played himself in All-NBA territory and is only 26.

This season was complete gravy.
Everyone bitching that we are a treadmil is losing focus that we came into the season with the lowest win total and finished the season with the 4th seed.
We still have the same cap flexibility and future draft picks that we did coming into the season that we do on the way out.

Let this play out. Even if the reality is - that as construed we are just an average team - we are alot further along then we thought we are and are future is extremely bright.

That's the glass half-full.

The glass half-empty is we don't have any capspace in two years with Randle, Mitch and RJ's extensions kicking in/having kicked in, we have no high draft picks for the foreseeable future, and our two best players who are inefficient scorers never break the ceiling in terms of scoring efficiency. That's a treadmill team.

The Knicks won't have capspace forever. Leon Rose can't afford to let it play out. He must pick a direction now or next summer at the latest.

It's great that Randle made an All-NBA team (presumably) and he deserves it - but that's a perception award. I'm more concerned about where he really stands in the NBA based on the eye test and the numbers. There are plenty of players who made an All-NBA team only to have unremarkable careers the rest of the way (Kemba, Oladipo, DAJ, Drummond, Al Jefferson, David Lee, Boozer). That's why we should analyze his game rather than review his individual achievements imo.

I'm a huge RJ fan and I personally bet on him having a Jimmy Butler career arc but we can't overlook how limited and "forced" his game looked in the Atlanta series. He can't create any offense for himself, and that's cause for concern. That doesn't mean he should get traded or that he doesn't deserve a chance, but I think it's a conversation the front office should be having (as should we), especially since the two players that they drafted flashed a lot of upside in this series, albeit mostly against bench units.

[BowlRips]

In terms of RJ, he has plenty of room to keep getting better too. He took a massive step foward this season. Who's to say he stops getting better? Maybe so, maybe not. Just looking at history, he will get better. Just a matter of how much. Plenty of things he can keep improving.

Read on Twitter

Thats the part that bothers me most about this thread.
RJ is 20.
He made improvements to his game that we did not expect to see this season.
Give him a chance to continue improving his game.

Randle was signed to a 2/40mil contract with a team option for 20mil in the 3rd year.
He was overlooked.
I, and almost every other Knick fan, were looking to cut him this past summer.
Now he played himself in All-NBA territory and is only 26.

This season was complete gravy.
Everyone bitching that we are a treadmil is losing focus that we came into the season with the lowest win total and finished the season with the 4th seed.
We still have the same cap flexibility and future draft picks that we did coming into the season that we do on the way out.

Let this play out. Even if the reality is - that as construed we are just an average team - we are alot further along then we thought we are and are future is extremely bright.

That's the glass half-full.

The glass half-empty is we don't have any capspace in two years with Randle, Mitch and RJ's extensions kicking in/having kicked in, we have no high draft picks for the foreseeable future, and our two best players who are inefficient scorers never break the glass ceiling in terms of scoring efficiency. That's a treadmill team.

The Knicks won't have capspace forever. Leon Rose can't afford to let it play out. He must pick a direction now or next summer at the latest.

It's great that Randle made an All-NBA team (presumably) and he deserves it - but that's a perception award. I'm more concerned about where he really stands in the NBA based on the eye test and the numbers. There are plenty of players who made an All-NBA team only to have unremarkable careers the rest of the way (Kemba, Oladipo, DAJ, Drummond, Al Jefferson, David Lee, Boozer). That's why we should analyze his game rather than review his individual achievements imo.

I'm a huge RJ fan and I personally bet on him having a Jimmy Butler career arc but we can't overlook how limited and "forced" his game looked in the Atlanta series. He can't create any offense for himself, and that's cause for concern. That doesn't mean he should get traded or that he doesn't deserve a chance, but I think it's a conversation the front office should be having (as should we), especially since the two players that they drafted flashed a lot of upside in this series, albeit mostly against bench units.

I don't see it as the glass half full - I see it as reality.
Yes obviously the front office is tasked with tremendous decisions over the next 2 seasons in putting together a core to run with going forward, but the reality the Knicks in no season over the past 20 years have this combination of future flexibility and on-court success.

[8516knicks]

Gotta give credit to ATL’s defense. This is what Randle needs to work on this summer

Or imagine if we had Mitch to lob it up to instead of Taj so Capela can’t cheat off his man

Or imagine if we had anybody at the 4/5 who could shoot from the perimeter outside of Randle to occupy Cappela, etc.?

[Chanel Bomber]

Thats the part that bothers me most about this thread.
RJ is 20.
He made improvements to his game that we did not expect to see this season.
Give him a chance to continue improving his game.

Randle was signed to a 2/40mil contract with a team option for 20mil in the 3rd year.
He was overlooked.
I, and almost every other Knick fan, were looking to cut him this past summer.
Now he played himself in All-NBA territory and is only 26.

This season was complete gravy.
Everyone bitching that we are a treadmil is losing focus that we came into the season with the lowest win total and finished the season with the 4th seed.
We still have the same cap flexibility and future draft picks that we did coming into the season that we do on the way out.

Let this play out. Even if the reality is - that as construed we are just an average team - we are alot further along then we thought we are and are future is extremely bright.

That's the glass half-full.

The glass half-empty is we don't have any capspace in two years with Randle, Mitch and RJ's extensions kicking in/having kicked in, we have no high draft picks for the foreseeable future, and our two best players who are inefficient scorers never break the glass ceiling in terms of scoring efficiency. That's a treadmill team.

The Knicks won't have capspace forever. Leon Rose can't afford to let it play out. He must pick a direction now or next summer at the latest.

It's great that Randle made an All-NBA team (presumably) and he deserves it - but that's a perception award. I'm more concerned about where he really stands in the NBA based on the eye test and the numbers. There are plenty of players who made an All-NBA team only to have unremarkable careers the rest of the way (Kemba, Oladipo, DAJ, Drummond, Al Jefferson, David Lee, Boozer). That's why we should analyze his game rather than review his individual achievements imo.

I'm a huge RJ fan and I personally bet on him having a Jimmy Butler career arc but we can't overlook how limited and "forced" his game looked in the Atlanta series. He can't create any offense for himself, and that's cause for concern. That doesn't mean he should get traded or that he doesn't deserve a chance, but I think it's a conversation the front office should be having (as should we), especially since the two players that they drafted flashed a lot of upside in this series, albeit mostly against bench units.

I don't see it as the glass half full - I see it as reality.
Yes obviously the front office is tasked with tremendous decisions over the next 2 seasons in putting together a core to run with going forward, but the reality the Knicks in no season over the past 20 years have this combination of future flexibility and on-court success.

I mean your optimism about a future that hasn't happened yet ("future is extremely bright") is seeing the glass half full. I'm not saying you're wrong for thinking this, but you are looking at the glass half-full.

Our future flexibility that you refer to will be short-lived, unless the FO trades a combination of Mitch, Randle or RJ for draft picks. Our on-court success is relative. We're in a decent position, unfortunately with no big player to sign besides Kawhi (unlikely) or CP3 (36) with our current cap flexibility. That's the reality.

I agree that we haven't had this combination of short-term flexibility and on-court success in 20 years. But if I were an exec I'd much rather inherit and build upon the 2011-12 Knicks (not the way they went about it) than the 2020-21 Knicks. Not. Even. Close.

[Ghetto Gospel]

yeah, imagine if we had an elite rim protector that could consistently score around the basket and perimeter consistently. I took some time to do some research so I could find this complete and exhaustive list

1. Anthony Davis
2. joel Embiid

[Gravy]

The team needs more talent, whether they get that talent or not we dont know.

Poor series but overall Randle did about as much as he could do. If you replace Randle with KD they still dont win a chip or go much further.

[cgf]

Gotta give credit to ATL’s defense. This is what Randle needs to work on this summer

Or imagine if we had Mitch to lob it up to instead of Taj so Capela can’t cheat off his man

Or imagine if we had anybody at the 4/5 who could shoot from the perimeter outside of Randle to occupy Cappela, etc.?

Either or works

[ENYK]

In terms of RJ, he has plenty of room to keep getting better too. He took a massive step foward this season. Who's to say he stops getting better? Maybe so, maybe not. Just looking at history, he will get better. Just a matter of how much. Plenty of things he can keep improving.

Read on Twitter

Thats the part that bothers me most about this thread.
RJ is 20.
He made improvements to his game that we did not expect to see this season.
Give him a chance to continue improving his game.

Randle was signed to a 2/40mil contract with a team option for 20mil in the 3rd year.
He was overlooked.
I, and almost every other Knick fan, were looking to cut him this past summer.
Now he played himself in All-NBA territory and is only 26.

This season was complete gravy.
Everyone bitching that we are a treadmil is losing focus that we came into the season with the lowest win total and finished the season with the 4th seed.
We still have the same cap flexibility and future draft picks that we did coming into the season that we do on the way out.

Let this play out. Even if the reality is - that as construed we are just an average team - we are alot further along then we thought we are and are future is extremely bright.

That's the glass half-full.

The glass half-empty is we don't have any capspace in two years with Randle, Mitch and RJ's extensions kicking in/having kicked in, we have no high draft picks for the foreseeable future, and our two best players who are inefficient scorers never break the glass ceiling in terms of scoring efficiency. That's a treadmill team.

The Knicks won't have capspace forever. Leon Rose can't afford to let it play out. He must pick a direction now or next summer at the latest.

It's great that Randle made an All-NBA team (presumably) and he deserves it - but that's a perception award. I'm more concerned about where he really stands in the NBA based on the eye test and the numbers. There are plenty of players who made an All-NBA team only to have unremarkable careers the rest of the way (Kemba, Oladipo, DAJ, Drummond, Al Jefferson, David Lee, Boozer). That's why we should analyze his game rather than review his individual achievements imo.

I'm a huge RJ fan and I personally bet on him having a Jimmy Butler career arc but we can't overlook how limited and "forced" his game looked in the Atlanta series. He can't create any offense for himself, and that's cause for concern. That doesn't mean he should get traded or that he doesn't deserve a chance, but I think it's a conversation the front office should be having (as should we), especially since the two players that they drafted flashed a lot of upside in this series, albeit mostly against bench units.

This is essentially a fork in the road for the franchise. Consensus opinion is that this core is 1-2 superstars (Kawhi, KD level) away from contending... Well, so is every other team in the NBA with the exception of teams that are fully committed to being terrible (Detroit, Orlando, Houston, etc.).

None of those actual superstar guys are coming here in the next two years, so building an actual contender is out.

Adding Lavine/Beal in 2022 doesn't make us a contender unless RJ develops into a player who can create for himself at an All Star level and Randle can continue to elevate his game and reliability as a go-to option (let's see how he reacts next season when teams are gameplanning him and the fans are back in the arenas).

That's a pretty huge gamble, and next summer we will have to start paying all of these guys (Randle, Mitch, maybe extend RJ)...

If we overpay the current Knicks and just look to add pieces every summer, we go from a cute overachiever to a capped out bubble playoff team and if not joke, certainly not a team that consistently gets out of the first round barring huge injuries to all of the real East contenders.

I'm not saying the Knicks should get rid of everyone, but they need to make some choices about who is worth the money and who isn't... No team decides to just keep everyone, unless you're GS, and they won 3 titles together.

[Chanel Bomber]

I don't think you're wrong at all about worrying about regression with this team cuz I'm definitely worried about it too. I just think you're forgetting about who the starters were matched up with when you're looking at these numbers. That -10 is pretty much in line with the rest of the starters right? I think you're seeing the Clint Capella effect in those net ratings. He was easily the second best player on the floor in this series and his ability to soft double on Randle destroyed our offense scheme. Randle was third in the league in post ups during the regular season and he only had one in the entire series. Thibs couldn't really find an adjustment to get randle to his spots and you can't forget about the rim protection either. Roses finishing was much better in game 1&2 than it was 3-5. That could be cuz he got banged up but I think it's more cuz of spending more floor time with Capella. I would talk about RJ's finishing but once the calendar hit May that went into the tank. I have a feeling that the bench guys didn't have to deal with as elite of defense as the starters did. Don't forget Hunter is no slouch defensively either.

No you're right of course, that's why I mentioned that (the quality of the opposition) in the original post. A disclaimer if you will.

My question is really about RJ and Randle putting a ceiling on the team. I think their inefficiency as scorers and their inability to get easy baskets need to be put under a microscope because they're pulling our offensive efficiency back down to average (or below-average) instead of elevating it.

Among the 16 playoff teams, they probably were the most inefficient "stars" in the playoffs alongside Westbrook (going by regular season numbers, not even their postseason numbers). All the players who have led their teams to the second round blow RJ and Julius out the water in terms of scoring efficiency.

What made our offense go is Randle's playmaking, not his scoring. It's Bullock's 3s (etc) that really made our offense somewhat efficient. Randle and RJ as scorers are not making this a good team, and that's an issue moving forward. Against smart playoff defenses that don't overreact to Julius's ISO scoring, Randle doesn't have the passing lanes to find our (actual) efficient scoring options.

About your point regarding the post-ups, the Hawks were a match-up nightmare with Capela being able to show since they weren't worried about Noel or Taj. Which is why I was hoping Thibs would go small with Randle at the 5 so McMillan couldn't cheat off our centers.

ahh sorry, I thought I read your post closer than I did. I think I agree with your overall point but disagree on some of the minor observation. Overreacting to Randle in isolation is why the Hawks were able to bog down our offense so much. They took him out of the post and played tight whomever was in the corner and it shut us down. We're definitely going to need to spice up the offense next year on top of upgrading talent.

I know TS% says they're inefficient but 18 ppg on 15 shots or 24 ppg on 19 shots(rounding up) isn't really that terrible. It's not good enough for us to make the second round but it's good enough for us to make the playoffs. We're a team with a second and third option but not really a first and that's going to show up in the efficiency stats. I'm definitely expecting another step in RJ's game that should hopefully alleviate some of the issues we had with on offense but realistically we need a better perimeter player to join these two. I just don't think we need to tear down to look for that person.

No worries bro.

I don't think the Hawks overreacted to Randle's isolations. They reacted appropriately. No hard doubles, taking away the left hand drive, having Capela roam around the paint to prevent any baskets at the rim. They had an excellent gameplan, but generally-speaking they didn't leave our shooters open to double Julius, as many teams did in the regular season. At least that's how I remember the events of the regular season and playoffs.

I'm also confident that RJ will come back an improved player. Assuming somehow someway we do get a 1A, I'm not sure Randle and RJ are good enough #2 and #3 options to build a contender though. Not today, at least. Looking back, RJ was really a 3rd option this season (behind Randle and Rose), and he wasn't efficient scoring the ball in his 3D role (although like you I expect him to keep improving). Can Randle be efficient scoring off a dominant perimeter player like Dame, assuming we can even get a player of his caliber? I guess we have to see. Julius doesn't exactly have length or elite athleticism so I don't think he'll ever be a great finisher.

Randle scored on higher efficiency on losing teams that played him at the 5 more. I don't know if that's sustainable as a full-time starter.

Watching these teams in the playoffs, it's just obvious how far behind these two players are imo.

[HarthorneWingo]

Gotta give credit to ATL’s defense. This is what Randle needs to work on this summer

He’ll be a better player for it too. He and the coaching staff understand what happened.

[seren]

People shouldn’t worry about RJ’s extension. Dolan doesn’t extend his own draft picks. RJ will be gone in two years.