knicksNOTslick wrote:Richard4444 wrote:Its very hard to get a generational star by tanking to get a Top pick.
Let's see the Top5 picks in the draft from 2013 to 2020.
2013 - No generational stars (Dipo was the best player).
2014 - Just Embiid - the third pick (Cant count Wiggins)
2015 - No generational stars (Towns and KP are far away to be generational)
2016 - No generational stars. (Ingram and Brown can be considered eventually but not right now).
2017 - Tantum. Third pick (Fox until last year was a disappointment).
2018 - Doncic and Trae - Third and Fifth pick
2019 - Zion, Morant, and Garland - First, second and fifth pick.
2020 - Edwards and LaMello - First and third pick.
Too soon to analyze the last 2 years IMO.
There were 9 generational players in the Top 5 pick in 8 years of the draft (7 in the Top3). On average, it's about one per year. And in most years, the generational one is not that obvious. Can you calculate the odds to get one of them?
Probably, if we have one of the worse teams in the league, it
can be doable. Because at least the odds to get one a Top5 or even a Top3 pick would be good. You would have more than 20% to get a generational player.
But if we do not have a totally crap team with plenty of rookies, the odds to get a really high pick are slim. You have to add the small odds to get a Top 4 pick and the small odds that the top 4 picks be a generational player.
So you don't consider KAT generational but you consider Garland as one?
Even if you adjust the "generational talents", I agree with his overall point. Tanking isn't the magic fix many people seem to think it is. Teams still have to land the right player AND build around that player. Lots of generational talents are stuck on mediocre teams that aren't going very far.
Zion was probably the most hyped draft prospect in the last 10 years, but he's injury prone and might never carry his team into the finals. Ja however, looks legit, and if the Knicks had landed the 2nd pick, not the first or 3rd, this team might be in a different place right now.
or had they draft DM instead of Frank. And some of that is luck not skill. DM was picked #13 so a bunch of teams passed on him. Giannis was drafted #15. Dirk (and I realize I'm going into ancient history a little with this one), drafted 9th. I think a team needs a combination of tanking and luck, and when they have that key player, they need to build around them the right way. It's not a simple process. Would tanking more often have helped? Probably, but nobody should think that tanking is a sure thing. Lots of teams tend to stay bad in the NBA, only a few really succeed.