Chanel Bomber wrote:spree8 wrote:Chanel Bomber wrote:Well, they are 100% making things harder for themselves by punting on the draft recently.
But while I get where you're coming from about the endemic failure of this franchise to get top picks since the 1980s, I still think you overvalue the "top 5" pick in this debate. Denver built their core outside the top 5, as did Toronto and Golden State before them.
Scouting and luck play a huge role. Luck is out of your control, but the poor scouting over the years has been more damaging to this franchise than the general unwillingness to tank in my opinion. Because it permeates through every significant decision, such as drafting RJ over Garland, or Obi over Haliburton.
Case in point, if we believe those reports to be true, the Knicks were rumored to like Wiseman at the top of the 2020 draft, if I remember correctly. Winning the lottery only to draft him would have been a disaster. But even if they'd been in a position to land Edwards and make the right call, I still view Haliburton is the better talent, and they had the ability to select him where they were. They didn't.
Definitely need both. With the lotto odds nowadays, yeah we need a better staff of talent evaluators in case we drop further down, but we also need a staff to be on the same page and embrace rebuilding/tanking thru the top of the draft.
We haven’t had a good scouting department for as long as I can remember. That’s why we ended up drafting guys like Knox over Mikal and Frank over Donovan, and Obi over Hali (and even IQ over Bane).
But we also haven’t had a staff fully dedicated towards rebuilding/tanking for the top of the draft for as long as it takes. Most of the all-time greatest players have been selected at the top of the draft and the majority of the championships have been won by teams with these guys leading the way.
We need to finally get good scouting and a regime committed to the multi-year tank.
I don't think a multi-year tank is actually needed.
Historically, most great players are found at the top of the draft. But this may no longer be the case.
Over half of the elite players drafted in the last 12-13 years were picked outside the top 10. Sure, there are still your Wembys, your Tatums, your Lukas, and your ADs in the top 5. But I'd argue that a lot if not most of the best talents seen in recent years would not have been drafted by their teams had they actually tanked, e.g., Jokic, Giannis, Jimmy, Kawhi etc. as well as some of the younger stars.
I have been wondering whether this stretch is an aberration or a long-term trend whereby the draft - outside of the odd generational talent - is simply more unpredictable than it used to be. I don't know the answer to that question (*and we very well may be starting to see a reversal of this trend), but I think it's fair to ask.
What having a high pick provides is hope, but the odds that it is met with a satisfying outcome in reality are extremely low.
I get your point, and yeah maybe it’s not as crucial as it once was to be at the very top, but I still think it’s better to be there than being mid or half assing a rebuild like we’ve done in the past.
I’ve always wanted to just see a commitment to youth from players to coaching with a modern system. No vets taking starting spots, just old timers who’ve won and can bestow some wisdom on the young guys and keep the locker room in check. Just build the right way and naturally land in the top of the draft thru inexperience/growing pains.
To the bolded part tho… are you sure about this? Elite stars drafted in top 10 since 2010 (last 13 years)..
2010: PG, Wall, Cousins, Gordy
2011: Kyrie, Kemba (Klay, Kawhi, Jimmy outside)
2012: AD, Dame, Beal (Draymond, Khris)
2013: Dipo (Giannis, Gobert)
2014: Embiid, Smart (Joker)
2015: Towns, KP (Booker, Myles)
2016: Ben, BI, Murray, Jaylen (Siakam, Dejounte, Sabonis)
2017: Tatum, Fox, Lauri (Donovan, Bam)
2018: Luka, Trae, JJJ, Mikal (SGA, MPJ, Brunson)
2019: Zion, Ja, Garland
2020: Edwards, LaMelo (Hali, Bane)
2021: Mobley, Barnes, Giddey (Murphy)
2022: Paolo, Chet, Murray, Sharpe (Jalen Duren+Williams)
2023: Wemby
By that count it’s 37-23 for the top 10 guys… close to double. Then guys like Klay, SGA, and Sabonis being picked borderline at 11…
Not sure if I missed anyone tho, but I’m only counting All-Star level players, DPOY guys, and rising stars.