OT: Democratic Primary Thread

[j4remi]

Sanders biggest issue was old voters, not black voters.

Sanders definitely had issues with black voters

I think it's worth noting that at least as I watched the exit polling closely (which stopped post-Super Tuesday) Bernie was still running at second choice to Biden with black voters and that was happening even when we had a crowded field. His problem with older black voters was that they preferred Biden and at least as long as I paid attention, he had a larger share of black voters under 45 but that could have changed with the influx of new data. Either way, the "problem" likely wouldn't have existed in a general election because they're a reliable voting bloc and didn't actually dislike him...just preferred his opponent. They'd have still turned out; I think older white voters would have been his real problem in a general.

Edit: Throwing in a link from a while back to support my assertion

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/black-voters-like-bernie-sanders-just-fine-they-just-might-like-other-candidates-more/

But Sanders could face the same problem he did in 2016 if the race comes down to say, Sanders vs. Biden or Harris — a candidate who most black voters just like more than the Vermont senator. Either way, there’s little evidence that black voters start off the 2020 race hating him.

It's a bit pedantic to argue over the use of problem. But I do think that the "black voter problem" for Bernie was less his problem and more Biden's appeal.

[Pointgod]

Thing is, that line of thinking only applies to Bernie Sanders.

Should people not back Biden because the BidenBros called his sexual assault accuser a "lyin bitch" on Twitter? Should we not vote for him because his surrogate (a white woman) told Nina Tuner (a black woman) that she doesn't have the right to quote MLK? Then later referring to her as an "angry black woman" in her "apology" (if you want to call it that).

Trust me you really don’t want to go there. All supporters of candidates have a certain amount of anger, it’s politics but Sanders supporters have been far and away the worst. Attacking a man with ALS because he supported Warren and the death threats that were sent to the heads of the Nevada Culinary Union are just two egregious examples.

All Warren was doing was posting a nice message to Bernie acknowledging what he’s done for politics. Completely apolitical. The fact that even that brought negativity just highlights the problem. Hopefully it’s all just blowing off steam and this doesn’t carry into the general.

I want to.

So you’re saying you personally know of every single case of every politician’s fans saying negative things about other candidates? And that you were able to line them all up and clearly see how Bernie’s were the worst?

And you also personally know each and every one of those people sitting behind their computer or phone typing out those messages? Are you 100% sure they’re actually Bernie supporters and not people working to give his supporters a bad name by pretending to be them? Not like that’s ever happened before right?

Don’t take what the MSM tells you as gospel...

There have been numerous first hand accounts from everyone from reporters, politicians, media members etc who have discussed the abuse sent to them from Bernie supporters. Anecdotally I’ve been on left wing blogs, news sites and Reddit and I’ve seen these trends as well. So it’s not just MSM, but thanks for being completely dismissive.

Your argument about people pretending to be Bernie supporters could literally apply to any online supporters, but there’s a reason that Elizabeth Warren singled them out and I don’t think it’s just about snake emojis. Anyways it could just be that there are more Bernie supporters in general, so you’ll get more bad actors sure. Anyways this isn’t to belabour the point, just pointing out that this behavior isn’t going to help build coalitions.

[Pointgod]

Irrelevant to the fact that it is his base this time around. Not "Republican-lite" voters.

I stand by my statement despite your needless insertion of race into the topic.



Nevermind that older african american and latino voters tend to be more socially conservative than most people are willing to acknowledge.

Insertion of race?

It's an inescapable and irrefutable truth that black voters are the reason that Joe Biden is the nominee and not anyone else. They are the textbook definition of his "base". You are trying to diminish his viability as a candidate by stating that he got to be the nominee because he appealed to Republicans. That is wrong on its face.

Now, if you want to have a discussion on whether or not older black and latino voters are more conservative, that is totally a relevant conversation to have.

I don't think it is any secret that older black voters probably don't gravitate towards Bernie and Warren. The results of this primary illustrate that. But if there are more older black and latino voters than there are AOC progressives, then what is the true identity of the party right now?

You cannot win the Democratic Party nomination without winning a majority of black voters period. They are the most consistent and reliable voting block of the party. Bernie, Buttigieg, Warren Klobachar would have all done better if they had been able make inroads with African Americans. Hell if the first two States had been a more diverse Nevada and South Carolina, then Booker and Harris would have stayed in the race longer and who knows how things could have shaken out.

And it’s pretty dismissive to say that African American voters are voting against their own interests or just voting for Obama’s boy. Politics is the art of persuasion and building coalitions. Biden has been doing that over the years with many African American members of the Democratic Party and especially in South Carolina so it’s no surprise that he did so well compared to other candidates who didn’t make the effort.

[Clyde_Style]

I find this idea that working with the other side of the aisle is somehow weak to be wrong. Every good politician does it, even when they have the majority.

Working with the other side is only good so long as they are willing to work with you. If they are going to drag their feet and demonize you rather than work with you then run the mofos over. Get done what you need to get done and let history sort it out. Republicans whined about Obamacare but when they had the power to repeal and replace it they didn't. They knew better because people had time to learn to like it.

Whitmer has enough progressive leanings to be considered left of center and to satisfy most of the party. And the GOP is really afraid of her. She would massacre Pence in a VP debate. She is a strong orator and she left a mark on Michigan politics with her fiery speeches in defense of labor unions. She has the character to be president. I think she is a much better choice than Klobuchar if they're leaning towards a woman from the mid-west.

If she helps Biden win Michigan and Wisconsin and helps in Pennsylvania then I would love her on the ticket. But I am thinking he might lean towards a minority to secure as big a turnout there as he can.

The Democrats are aiming for a sweep so they have control of the WH and Congress. The 2018 elections and the current circumstances make it very clear the Senate is highly obtainable now. That's the objective, regardless of your opinion of Obama

I think Obama's status as the first African American President and how his temperament compares to the Nativist dumpster fire that followed me makes him look like a much better President than he was. Would he be a huge upgrade over Trump. Without a doubt. But he was not an effective President and part of that was self inflicted. I am worried Biden learned nothing from his mistakes.

The evidence is already coming in real time that Biden actually learned quite a bit from past mistakes, whether they were his own, Obama's or Hillary's.

If he gets the sweep, he'll be much better than you expect. He's not running to get re-elected. He already said he'd step down if his age or health becomes a factor. That is why his VP selection is so important, because they will probably become the president.

All of that means Biden can do what he feels is good for the country without worrying about the rest of his career. This is it. If he has a majority I think he'll end up considerably more liberal than Obama was. Obama had some miscalculations and was not bold enough at times when he should have been. Obama is too careful in ways that were good at times, but also very detrimental to getting true progress on many fronts. I don't really think that is going to be Biden's flaw.

I do think he takes his role as a civil servant to heart and I do think he is running because he felt he might be the one that gathered the votes that beat Trump. So far, his calculation is looking correct. Anyway, I do believe you need to give him a chance to assemble his team and continue to show he's listening. He is showing that he is.

[j4remi]

There have been numerous first hand accounts from everyone from reporters, politicians, media members etc who have discussed the abuse sent to them from Bernie supporters. Anecdotally I’ve been on left wing blogs, news sites and Reddit and I’ve seen these trends as well. So it’s not just MSM, but thanks for being completely dismissive.

Your argument about people pretending to be Bernie supporters could literally apply to any online supporters, but there’s a reason that Elizabeth Warren singled them out and I don’t think it’s just about snake emojis. Anyways it could just be that there are more Bernie supporters in general, so you’ll get more bad actors sure. Anyways this isn’t to belabour the point, just pointing out that this behavior isn’t going to help build coalitions.

The problems I've always had with this argument is it's purely anecdotal. This was an interesting attempt to actually measure it out and wound up with an interesting result. Snippet below link

https://www.salon.com/2020/03/09/there-is-hard-data-that-shows-bernie-bros-are-a-myth/

Bernie followers act pretty much the same on Twitter as any other follower. There is one key difference that Twitter users and media don't seem to be aware of. Bernie has a lot more Twitter followers than Twitter followers of other Democrat's campaigns.

People responding to hundreds of millions of people online tend to dehumanize others. They remember that someone is female/male or follows some candidate or is of some race, but they frequently don't pay attention to differentiate actions of one member of that group versus another. So rather than consider how frequently an individual of some group acts, they think of how frequently the group acts as a whole. If they interact with many more members of one group than another, that perception of the group is magnified by the number of members they see.

[Clyde_Style]

Sanders biggest issue was old voters, not black voters.

Sanders definitely had issues with black voters

I think it's worth noting that at least as I watched the exit polling closely (which stopped post-Super Tuesday) Bernie was still running at second choice to Biden with black voters and that was happening even when we had a crowded field. His problem with older black voters was that they preferred Biden and at least as long as I paid attention, he had a larger share of black voters under 45 but that could have changed with the influx of new data. Either way, the "problem" likely wouldn't have existed in a general election because they're a reliable voting bloc and didn't actually dislike him...just preferred his opponent. They'd have still turned out; I think older white voters would have been his real problem in a general.

Edit: Throwing in a link from a while back to support my assertion

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/black-voters-like-bernie-sanders-just-fine-they-just-might-like-other-candidates-more/

Yes, Bernie would have captured the majority of the black vote in the general election simply because black voters are voting democrat by and large. But you need those votes to win the nomination, so ............

[j4remi]

Yes, Bernie would have captured the majority of the black vote in the general election simply because black voters are voting democrat by and large. But you need those votes to win the nomination, so ............

If the goal is to beat Trump then I think this discussion matters because Bernie supporters aren't guaranteed for Biden. That problem was one way and it's why I've always maintained the electability argument was pretty much illogical...Black voters will turn out for Bernie; Bernie supporters might not for Biden.

[Clyde_Style]

There have been numerous first hand accounts from everyone from reporters, politicians, media members etc who have discussed the abuse sent to them from Bernie supporters. Anecdotally I’ve been on left wing blogs, news sites and Reddit and I’ve seen these trends as well. So it’s not just MSM, but thanks for being completely dismissive.

Your argument about people pretending to be Bernie supporters could literally apply to any online supporters, but there’s a reason that Elizabeth Warren singled them out and I don’t think it’s just about snake emojis. Anyways it could just be that there are more Bernie supporters in general, so you’ll get more bad actors sure. Anyways this isn’t to belabour the point, just pointing out that this behavior isn’t going to help build coalitions.

The problems I've always had with this argument is it's purely anecdotal. This was an interesting attempt to actually measure it out and wound up with an interesting result. Snippet below link

https://www.salon.com/2020/03/09/there-is-hard-data-that-shows-bernie-bros-are-a-myth/

Bernie followers act pretty much the same on Twitter as any other follower. There is one key difference that Twitter users and media don't seem to be aware of. Bernie has a lot more Twitter followers than Twitter followers of other Democrat's campaigns.

People responding to hundreds of millions of people online tend to dehumanize others. They remember that someone is female/male or follows some candidate or is of some race, but they frequently don't pay attention to differentiate actions of one member of that group versus another. So rather than consider how frequently an individual of some group acts, they think of how frequently the group acts as a whole. If they interact with many more members of one group than another, that perception of the group is magnified by the number of members they see.

You know what Twitter is like. You don't need statistics to see that Trump and Sanders supporters are the most aggressive and hostile posters. Only 10% of the population gets their politics from Twitter, but die hards are on Twitter so you get a strong sense of the vibe of a politicians base by reading Twitter. You don't need media reports about Sanders supporters on Twitter. You just need to go to Twitter. It's all there. Why even deny it? It's really obvious how hard core and angry and wild Sanders Twitter supporters are compared to anyone who supports any other Democratic nominee. It's not even close.

I think it is largely irrelevant though, because boards like this are much better places to hash out stuff than Twitter. Twitter is great for picking up clips, but it is very hit or miss when it comes to reasonable discourse. That's the nature of Twitter much more so than the nature of Sanders supporters. Therefore, I don't assume anything about you or any other Sanders supporter based on the extreme edges of Twitter. I have demonstrated a willingness to engage and have asked for your opinions. That's where the real progress and coalitions happen, not by fighting with people on Twitter which is a trash way to spend anyone's time.

[Clyde_Style]

Yes, Bernie would have captured the majority of the black vote in the general election simply because black voters are voting democrat by and large. But you need those votes to win the nomination, so ............

If the goal is to beat Trump then I think this discussion matters because Bernie supporters aren't guaranteed for Biden. That problem was one way and it's why I've always maintained the electability argument was pretty much illogical...Black voters will turn out for Bernie; Bernie supporters might not for Biden.

You may be right, but as the boring pragmatist that I am, I'll say it again, that's the path to the nomination and Joe had it and Bernie did not, so it really doesn't matter if you are correct about that elasticity.

What matters is what Biden does now with Sanders team to build the coalition.

[HarthorneWingo]

I hear you on Obama but it appears - at least for now - that Biden is triangulating to the left, not the right. Let’s see if he continues on that path.

He's just taking steps to shore up his left flank. Governing is a whole different story.

True. We’ll see what he has to say in the coming months. Bernie’s still holding on to his cards. If Biden doesn’t come through, if he tries to f*ck us, we’ll f*ck him back.

[Clyde_Style]

I hear you on Obama but it appears - at least for now - that Biden is triangulating to the left, not the right. Let’s see if he continues on that path.

He's just taking steps to shore up his left flank. Governing is a whole different story.

True. We’ll see what he has to say in the coming months. Bernie’s still holding on to his cards. If Biden doesn’t come through, if he tries to f*ck us, we’ll f*ck him back.

You should have been cast in The Warriors you nut

[HarthorneWingo]

I find this idea that working with the other side of the aisle is somehow weak to be wrong. Every good politician does it, even when they have the majority.

Working with the other side is only good so long as they are willing to work with you. If they are going to drag their feet and demonize you rather than work with you then run the mofos over. Get done what you need to get done and let history sort it out. Republicans whined about Obamacare but when they had the power to repeal and replace it they didn't. They knew better because people had time to learn to like it.

Whitmer has enough progressive leanings to be considered left of center and to satisfy most of the party. And the GOP is really afraid of her. She would massacre Pence in a VP debate. She is a strong orator and she left a mark on Michigan politics with her fiery speeches in defense of labor unions. She has the character to be president. I think she is a much better choice than Klobuchar if they're leaning towards a woman from the mid-west.

If she helps Biden win Michigan and Wisconsin and helps in Pennsylvania then I would love her on the ticket. But I am thinking he might lean towards a minority to secure as big a turnout there as he can.

The Democrats are aiming for a sweep so they have control of the WH and Congress. The 2018 elections and the current circumstances make it very clear the Senate is highly obtainable now. That's the objective, regardless of your opinion of Obama

I think Obama's status as the first African American President and how his temperament compares to the Nativist dumpster fire that followed me makes him look like a much better President than he was. Would he be a huge upgrade over Trump. Without a doubt. But he was not an effective President and part of that was self inflicted. I am worried Biden learned nothing from his mistakes.

The problem with Biden is that his political instincts draw him towards the center. So we have to see strong evidence that he’s on board. Look, he won, so we don’t get everything we wanted. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t hold out and extract as many progressive concessions as we possibly can.

[Clyde_Style]

The problem with Biden is that his political instincts draw him towards the center. So we have to see strong evidence that he’s on board. Look, he won, so we don’t get everything we wanted. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t hold out and extract as many progressive concessions as we possibly can.

[j4remi]

You know what Twitter is like. You don't need statistics to see that Trump and Sanders supporters are the most aggressive and hostile posters. Only 10% of the population gets their politics from Twitter, but die hards are on Twitter so you get a strong sense of the vibe of a politicians base by reading Twitter. You don't need media reports about Sanders supporters on Twitter. You just need to go to Twitter. It's all there. Why even deny it? It's really obvious how hard core and angry and wild Sanders Twitter supporters are compared to anyone who supports any other Democratic nominee. It's not even close.

I think it is largely irrelevant though, because boards like this are much better places to hash out stuff than Twitter. Twitter is great for picking up clips, but it is very hit or miss when it comes to reasonable discourse. That's the nature of Twitter much more so than the nature of Sanders supporters. Therefore, I don't assume anything about you or any other Sanders supporter based on the extreme edges of Twitter. I have demonstrated a willingness to engage and have asked for your opinions. That's where the real progress and coalitions happen, not by fighting with people on Twitter which is a trash way to spend anyone's time.

I don't like to push ideas that don't have data to support them. That's why I tend to source most of my claims as best as I can. "You don't need stats" nah...you do...because it's very easy to fall into a sort of Baader-Meinhoff trap where you remember every mean thing a Bernie supporter said but totally miss the harassment that Brie Joy Gray or Nina Turner have been getting. That's literally what the article is about.

And while I agree that twitter isn't the place to get your opinions, the fact that twitter emojis were used as a way to attack the presidential candidate rather than anything about his own character or policies is a damned shame if the data doesn't even support the claim.

[j4remi]

You may be right, but as the boring pragmatist that I am, I'll say it again, that's the path to the nomination and Joe had it and Bernie did not, so it really doesn't matter if you are correct about that elasticity.

What matters is what Biden does now with Sanders team to build the coalition.

My pragmatic strategies are more general election focused than primary. I'm not even sure Biden wins if Warren drops out and puts progressive goals over her hurt feelings before Super Tuesday (the numbers leave plenty of space for doubt).

I also think it's not on Sanders any more. It's on Biden. Sanders can give advice and suggestions but Biden has to be the one to reach out and win over the progressives. He's shown a willingness to move left with a couple of policy ideas so I'm hoping he gets it but winning trust with his record is going to take some work and probably a few roles in his transition team.

[Pointgod]

Absolutely. I was disappointed by Obama in many ways, but I also know he started off with bad hand and ended up with an obstructionist GOP making it hell for him to legislate. But I love Obama the person. He's a wonderful personality and he clearly would have been the perfect president for this current crisis.

He started off with a bad hand but he played it the worst way imaginable when he spent so much time trying to build consensus with Republicans. They were never going to work with him and then when they took over Congress they completely neutered his Presidency. Now Joe "Once Trump is out of office Republicans will work with us" Biden is doubling down on that strategy.

The issue with this line of thinking is that long term a country cannot function long term without the two parties working together in some form of bipartisan manner. Otherwise you just get what’s happening now, Trump Republicans undoing everything that Obama did and the next Democratic President trying to build it back up.

Obama started off trying to do the right thing, but he couldn’t have predicted that voters would reward Republicans for being cynical, obstructionist pieces of ****. The Democratic Party and voters really failed Obama by not coming out in the midterms and he spent the majority of his Presidency playing with one hand behind his back and working against the refs.

[Clyde_Style]

You may be right, but as the boring pragmatist that I am, I'll say it again, that's the path to the nomination and Joe had it and Bernie did not, so it really doesn't matter if you are correct about that elasticity.

What matters is what Biden does now with Sanders team to build the coalition.

My pragmatic strategies are more general election focused than primary. I'm not even sure Biden wins if Warren drops out and puts progressive goals over her hurt feelings before Super Tuesday (the numbers leave plenty of space for doubt).

I also think it's not on Sanders any more. It's on Biden. Sanders can give advice and suggestions but Biden has to be the one to reach out and win over the progressives. He's shown a willingness to move left with a couple of policy ideas so I'm hoping he gets it but winning trust with his record is going to take some work and probably a few roles in his transition team.

I think that is happening and we'll see solid initiatives and key roles that satisfy the left

[Kampuchea]

I find this idea that working with the other side of the aisle is somehow weak to be wrong. Every good politician does it, even when they have the majority.

Working with the other side is only good so long as they are willing to work with you. If they are going to drag their feet and demonize you rather than work with you then run the mofos over. Get done what you need to get done and let history sort it out. Republicans whined about Obamacare but when they had the power to repeal and replace it they didn't. They knew better because people had time to learn to like it.

Whitmer has enough progressive leanings to be considered left of center and to satisfy most of the party. And the GOP is really afraid of her. She would massacre Pence in a VP debate. She is a strong orator and she left a mark on Michigan politics with her fiery speeches in defense of labor unions. She has the character to be president. I think she is a much better choice than Klobuchar if they're leaning towards a woman from the mid-west.

If she helps Biden win Michigan and Wisconsin and helps in Pennsylvania then I would love her on the ticket. But I am thinking he might lean towards a minority to secure as big a turnout there as he can.

The Democrats are aiming for a sweep so they have control of the WH and Congress. The 2018 elections and the current circumstances make it very clear the Senate is highly obtainable now. That's the objective, regardless of your opinion of Obama

I think Obama's status as the first African American President and how his temperament compares to the Nativist dumpster fire that followed me makes him look like a much better President than he was. Would he be a huge upgrade over Trump. Without a doubt. But he was not an effective President and part of that was self inflicted. I am worried Biden learned nothing from his mistakes.

The problem with Biden is that his political instincts draw him towards the center. So we have to see strong evidence that he’s on board. Look, he won, so we don’t get everything we wanted. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t hold out and extract as many progressive concessions as we possibly can.

Fair call, however, Biden can't be trusted to deliver on anything. At this point he is going to say whatever he can to win the election, he will deliver on NONE of it. This is a man who is for the establishment, not for the people.

He will do his best to say the right things to convince us Bernie supporters (assuming he has his faculties that day), I hope I am wrong and he actually follows through if he can manage a victory over the Orange mouthbreather.

[HarthorneWingo]

Working with the other side is only good so long as they are willing to work with you. If they are going to drag their feet and demonize you rather than work with you then run the mofos over. Get done what you need to get done and let history sort it out. Republicans whined about Obamacare but when they had the power to repeal and replace it they didn't. They knew better because people had time to learn to like it.





If she helps Biden win Michigan and Wisconsin and helps in Pennsylvania then I would love her on the ticket. But I am thinking he might lean towards a minority to secure as big a turnout there as he can.






I think Obama's status as the first African American President and how his temperament compares to the Nativist dumpster fire that followed me makes him look like a much better President than he was. Would he be a huge upgrade over Trump. Without a doubt. But he was not an effective President and part of that was self inflicted. I am worried Biden learned nothing from his mistakes.

The problem with Biden is that his political instincts draw him towards the center. So we have to see strong evidence that he’s on board. Look, he won, so we don’t get everything we wanted. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t hold out and extract as many progressive concessions as we possibly can.

Fair call, however, Biden can't be trusted to deliver on anything. At this point he is going to say whatever he can to win the election, he will deliver on NONE of it. This is a man who is for the establishment, not for the people.

He will do his best to say the right things to convince us Bernie supporters (assuming he has his faculties that day), I hope I am wrong and he actually follows through if he can manage a victory over the Orange mouthbreather.

Bernie won't give Biden access to his vast donor list which is literally gold. Biden is probably serving only one term. So if he fcks us, his VP will get primaried.

[Jeff Van Gully]

Yes, Bernie would have captured the majority of the black vote in the general election simply because black voters are voting democrat by and large. But you need those votes to win the nomination, so ............

If the goal is to beat Trump then I think this discussion matters because Bernie supporters aren't guaranteed for Biden. That problem was one way and it's why I've always maintained the electability argument was pretty much illogical...Black voters will turn out for Bernie; Bernie supporters might not for Biden.

yep. they went against hillary last time.

shoe on the other foot, hillary supporters were more likely to support bernie against trump. i think the same would have been the case if bernie won this election.