Official MMA discussion thread: UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega finally!

[waya]

So 5 submission losses in 40+ fights.......doesn't seem so bad...lol. One of his last 3 losses in his last 3 fights that you mention by submission was by Damian "F*****G" Maia which i would think you would know is one of, if not the best BBJ guys in all of MMA and last nights loss was from a standing Guillotine. A lot of times he doesn't fight the takedown because he likes fighting off his back.

5 submission losses out of 12 total losses and factor in decisions where takedowns and ground control made the difference (Magny, Hendricks, GSP, Jake Shields, arguably Martin Kampmann) and that's 10 of 12 losses coming because he gets outgrappled. I could count on one hand the number of fighters that I'd be comfortable with standing for 5 rounds against Condit, but I'm a lot more comfortable in guys beating him with takedowns. Wrestling = Grappling, shooting into a deep guillotine is poor grappling, being taken down more times than he's defended takedown attempts is godawful no matter how comfortable he is losing rounds off his back. This isn't complicated at all. Until the gameplan to beat Condit goes from "take him down" to "stay on the feet" the most likely reason for him to lost fights will be holes in his grappling.

Might just be a dumb supposition, but I feel like whoever Jackson WInk's grappling coach is is a fraud. Out of their team, only Jon Jones, who came into the sport with good wrestling credentials and a freak body, has amazing grappling. The rest of their home grown talent are usually pretty hopeless implementing or defending great wrestling (Condit, Cerrone, Holly, etc).

Waterson is pretty good, I suppose. And Dodson can keep a fight standing, but he also came into the sport with great athleticism and a wrestling background.

[waya]

I really hope barboza shuts up Kevin lee this upcoming wkend, just can't stand the dude thinking he deserves a title shot after every time he fights. Also it seems as though he never has anything nice to say about other fights in his division.

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Seeing Lee get knocked out by a flying knee or wheel kick would be very satisfying imo

[j4remi]

Might just be a dumb supposition, but I feel like whoever Jackson WInk's grappling coach is is a fraud. Out of their team, only Jon Jones, who came into the sport with good wrestling credentials and a freak body, has amazing grappling. The rest of their home grown talent are usually pretty hopeless implementing or defending great wrestling (Condit, Cerrone, Holly, etc).

Waterson is pretty good, I suppose. And Dodson can keep a fight standing, but he also came into the sport with great athleticism and a wrestling background.

I wouldn't go that far. Some people just hit a cap or struggle at a certain aspect of the game. With Condit, I think it was mentality for the longest because in the GSP era he got away with limited takedown defense and mainly made it hell to be down there with him (his sweeps against GSP specifically were nice as hell). But he's behind the eight ball now and while there have been signs of him paying more attention to takedown defense, I just don't think it's improved fast enough. Cerrone has a low key solid submission/transition game off of his back but he's just so good on his feet that it's hardly necessary for him on most nights. Holly is limited, but I give that staff huge props for teaching her everything she would need to stay standing with Ronda. Granted, she probably focused 100% on defending against throws and the arm bar, but against a judo player of that stature to shut it down was incredible. Waterson can grapple heavy, I remember her at 105 rolling with Penne and than with Magana in her UFC debut. She's really turned into an all around great fighter which showed when she shifted plans on Casey; but I do feel like I remember her showing off more at atomweight where she wasn't so undersized. Dodson has all the tools for sure and rarely uses it offensively so tough to say (I'm more disappointed in his development as a striker, it's a lot of one note action focused on power punches).

They're all solid to really good on the ground. So I think the grappling coaches are fine, but I think with so many striking pedigrees that these cats are all more accustomed to using grappling as needed. Jackson/Wink tend to gameplan for a specific opponent and it shows, but I wonder if that might be why some of these fighters haven't added as many wrinkles to their games as others (and the ones with the most success evolving have been the most active of the bunch like Cerrone who added an intercepting knee as a common attack and immediately became a tougher opponent).

[j4remi]

Gaethje has made it known for the last couple of fights that he was counting down the amount of fights he has left. After Dustin's fight he said he is now down to 5 fights left. MMA World video today has the clip of him saying that.

He is a very entertaining fighter, by the end of it I wouldn't be shocked if all of his fights in the UFC could be considered top 25 all time type fights. He reminds me of a more skilled Chris Leben. Just a zombie walking forward willing to take a ton of damage with the hope of just catching the guy. Gaethje is more skilled but seems to have the same attitude. It's not the smartest fighting technique and I really hate to think how he might be in 20 years. But damn I know for a fact that every time he has a fight I'm going to watch it and know it's going to be a blast.

I feel you. I'd used a similar comparison with Diego Sanchez. Pressure and pace always took priority over technique but he had the skills to hang with most of the top guys in his era. Those guys usually hit a cap around top 3-5 but they're beloved because they put everything on the line. There will be a generation of UFC fans that point to Gaethje as their favorite purely for how he carries himself and the way he fights, win or lose.

Wouldn't it be easier if Justin would evolve as a fighter? Does he have a strongly held religious belief against head movement?

I think the success in WSOF might have come back to bite him in that he got away with it for so long, he didn't need to adjust. This is only the second fight where he's really been exploited for overrelying on leg kicks and peek-a-boo defense (cover your face and take hits on your forehead if anywhere). The other thing about him is his top priority isn't being champion (at least from what I've always gleaned), it's to be the most entertaining fighter ever. I think that's why he has such a great wrestling pedigree but hardly uses it (even in limited fair though he's had moments where you can see him use leverage and clinches to bully guys). To be fair, win or lose the guy has accomplished that goal of most entertaining and I also think he still beats most opponents on his pressure and willpower alone. They need to give him a non-brawler next though and give that skull and brain some recovery time...but if I'm being greedy, here's what I'd love.

Gaethje vs Iaquinta...need that in my life.

[HarthorneWingo]

Wouldn't it be easier if Justin would evolve as a fighter? Does he have a strongly held religious belief against head movement?

I think the success in WSOF might have come back to bite him in that he got away with it for so long, he didn't need to adjust. This is only the second fight where he's really been exploited for overrelying on leg kicks and peek-a-boo defense (cover your face and take hits on your forehead if anywhere). The other thing about him is his top priority isn't being champion (at least from what I've always gleaned), it's to be the most entertaining fighter ever. I think that's why he has such a great wrestling pedigree but hardly uses it (even in limited fair though he's had moments where you can see him use leverage and clinches to bully guys). To be fair, win or lose the guy has accomplished that goal of most entertaining and I also think he still beats most opponents on his pressure and willpower alone. They need to give him a non-brawler next though and give that skull and brain some recovery time...but if I'm being greedy, here's what I'd love.

Gaethje vs Iaquinta...need that in my life.

Crazy!

Thanks for taking the time to write that response. Much appreciated.

[waya]

Might just be a dumb supposition, but I feel like whoever Jackson WInk's grappling coach is is a fraud. Out of their team, only Jon Jones, who came into the sport with good wrestling credentials and a freak body, has amazing grappling. The rest of their home grown talent are usually pretty hopeless implementing or defending great wrestling (Condit, Cerrone, Holly, etc).

Waterson is pretty good, I suppose. And Dodson can keep a fight standing, but he also came into the sport with great athleticism and a wrestling background.

I wouldn't go that far. Some people just hit a cap or struggle at a certain aspect of the game. With Condit, I think it was mentality for the longest because in the GSP era he got away with limited takedown defense and mainly made it hell to be down there with him (his sweeps against GSP specifically were nice as hell). But he's behind the eight ball now and while there have been signs of him paying more attention to takedown defense, I just don't think it's improved fast enough. Cerrone has a low key solid submission/transition game off of his back but he's just so good on his feet that it's hardly necessary for him on most nights. Holly is limited, but I give that staff huge props for teaching her everything she would need to stay standing with Ronda. Granted, she probably focused 100% on defending against throws and the arm bar, but against a judo player of that stature to shut it down was incredible. Waterson can grapple heavy, I remember her at 105 rolling with Penne and than with Magana in her UFC debut. She's really turned into an all around great fighter which showed when she shifted plans on Casey; but I do feel like I remember her showing off more at atomweight where she wasn't so undersized. Dodson has all the tools for sure and rarely uses it offensively so tough to say (I'm more disappointed in his development as a striker, it's a lot of one note action focused on power punches).

They're all solid to really good on the ground. So I think the grappling coaches are fine, but I think with so many striking pedigrees that these cats are all more accustomed to using grappling as needed. Jackson/Wink tend to gameplan for a specific opponent and it shows, but I wonder if that might be why some of these fighters haven't added as many wrinkles to their games as others (and the ones with the most success evolving have been the most active of the bunch like Cerrone who added an intercepting knee as a common attack and immediately became a tougher opponent).

I'm probably just being reactionary to Condit's struggles. Like you said, he was able to get by being active off his back for a while but there was some damning stat where he was taken down in 17 of his 20 UFC/WEC fights (or something crazy like that).

And also that Holly/de Randemie fight, where Holly's team were clearly training to make it a grappling affair but ended up going for some weak high crotches and pressing her against the cage in what was probably one of the worst PPV main events in a long while.

[HarthorneWingo]

Looks like a pretty damn good card on Saturday night in AC.

Barbosa vs Lee
Edgar vs Swanson
Branch vs Santos
Sterling vs Johns

[j4remi]

Lee missed weight by 2 lbs. Fight will go on but he forfeits 20% of his purse. Heading into the Ferguson fight, I don't remember exactly how far over he was the last couple of days but it was so high that a lot of people were expecting him to miss the cut. Dude had an excuse on that one with the staph infection but this makes two in a row where he played with fire, this time it burned him.

[bringbackhoffa]

So glad Lee missed weight with all the **** he talks about being professional....They are talk with the new TV deal coming that they will be more weight classes so they can introduce more titles.

Also Leslie Smith Opponent didnt make wieght and Smith didnt agree to take the fight with an additional 20%, so the UFC paid her win+show and told her they werent renewing her contract... I guess pushing for a union is not a good thing

[Clyde_Style]

So glad Lee missed weight with all the **** he talks about being professional....They are talk with the new TV deal coming that they will be more weight classes so they can introduce more titles.

Also Leslie Smith Opponent didnt make wieght and Smith didnt agree to take the fight with an additional 20%, so the UFC paid her win+show and told her they werent renewing her contract... I guess pushing for a union is not a good thing

Weight classes are becoming meaningless then. If a fighter can't say they don't want to fight at a distinct weight disadvantage and they get cut for it, then the UFC doesn't care about their health. It should always be the fighter's call if they want to fight someone who missed weight.

[bringbackhoffa]

So glad Lee missed weight with all the **** he talks about being professional....They are talk with the new TV deal coming that they will be more weight classes so they can introduce more titles.

Also Leslie Smith Opponent didnt make wieght and Smith didnt agree to take the fight with an additional 20%, so the UFC paid her win+show and told her they werent renewing her contract... I guess pushing for a union is not a good thing

Weight classes are becoming meaningless then. If a fighter can't say they don't want to fight at a distinct weight disadvantage and they get cut for it, then the UFC doesn't care about their health. It should always be the fighter's call if they want to fight someone who missed weight.

She didn't get renewed because of her work pushing for a fighter union which is bad business for the ufc

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[HarthorneWingo]

Kevin Lee is going all Negan on Barbosa

[HarthorneWingo]

If I'm the ref, I'm telling Barboza's corner to show me something or this fight will be over very soon.

[waya]

Read on Twitter

Ughh wish Barboza was able to stay away and finish him after Lee was doing his chicken dance.

[HarthorneWingo]

Read on Twitter

Ughh wish Barboza was able to stay away and finish him after Lee was doing his chicken dance.

Yeah, me too. Would've been one of the great all-time comebacks because Lee was pounding the crap out Edson up until that point ... and then after that point.

[waya]

Read on Twitter

Ughh wish Barboza was able to stay away and finish him after Lee was doing his chicken dance.

Yeah, me too. Would've been one of the great all-time comebacks because Lee was pounding the crap out Edson up until that point ... and then after that point.

Feel kind of bad for Edson, taking serious punishment two fights in a row. He's almost too tough for his own good.

Lee's grappling, top control, transitions are all dominant as hell. But I have questions about that chin. Haven't even watched all of his fights and I've seen him get rocked multiple times and TKO'd in the ones that I have

[bringbackhoffa]

Man a right hand after that bicycle kick would of finished it instead of going for the choke. F barboza u had that comeback win in ur hands..

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[Clyde_Style]

Overall, that card was pretty underwhelming.

[j4remi]

Hot Takes from the Main Card:
- Barboza did what he does...let a jab back him up to the cage where he was taken down and controlled. It's disappointing when you consider that he spent one round focused on staying toward the middle of the cage and landed a near KO in that brief stint.

- Lee is poor man's Khabib to me but he's a better striker. His kicks aren't fast but they are STRONG, his jab is crisper and he's HEAVY on top of guys. I just think Khabib looks more overwhelming.

- Last bit on that fight, Barboza's body kicks even when exhausted were rapid-fire and powerful. I really wanted to see him take that kick upstairs and try to catch Lee protecting low but he was tired and kept chasing the spinning kick a second time. When we talk about the importance of tactics, I really think a talent like Barboza stands out because staying middle and changing levels really could have made this a more interesting fight.

- Cub Swanson fought not to get taken down, Frankie took what Cub gave him and we got a forgettable decision win. Cub's jab kept the space to not be taken down but he needed to throw it with combinations to do any damage. Committing to combos means risking getting taken down and Cub had no urgency to make him take that shot (minus some brief exchanges late in rounds). Good bounceback for Frankie but he felt super gate keeperish to me on this one.

- The three lower bouts all showed prospects. Dan Hooker's knee KO was a beauty. He's really patient and methodic, but sometimes it looks like he's being outstruck until he lands something like that knee on Miller. He's got that slow start but pace picks up before you know it vibe. Time for a big test for him, Felder was a good callout.

- Aljimain Sterling finally flashed growth as a striker. He had combo's, movement, level changes...just all around impressive work and he didn't look afraid to get hit (which came out of nowhere but stuck around right before and after the Caraway loss). I was really big on his upside early in his career but he felt stagnant. This wasn't the win to get me back to my high expectations but it's a step in that direction and I really like his team (Serra Luongo)

- David Branch just showed why he was a two division champ. A lot of fans recalled how he lost the Rockhold fight and completely forgot that he won the first round clearly. Thiago Santos is one of my favorite mid-tier MW's, great kicks and striking with a solid all around talent to hang and test fighters. Branch just walked through him and finished him easily.

- You couldn't give me a less interesting match-up between two guys that actually could move up in their division than Anderson vs Cummins. Glad Anderson won but will wait until his next step-up type of fight to get back to really breaking him down.

[nykinoz]

Frank Mir Vs Fedor, only about 15 years too late!