Kevin Pelton just wrote an article on ESPN speculating on possible destinations Melo. Not sure how much inside knowledge he has. It seems to mirror a lot of what has been written on here.
Phil Jackson can hold all the press conferences he wants and say Carmelo Anthony "would be better off somewhere else," as he did in Friday's season wrap-up. It won't matter until the New York Knicks can find a team that meets two criteria: a willingness to offer value in return for Anthony, who turns 33 in May, and a destination for which Anthony would waive his no-trade clause.
While Anthony has sounded increasingly open to a possible trade, and there was interest before this year's trade deadline, he also said the Knicks never came to him about approving a trade. So clearly Jackson and the front office haven't found the right match yet. Whether they do this summer could depend on the events of the next few months.
Here's what Jackson should be hoping transpires during the playoffs and beyond:
The Cleveland Cavaliers don't repeat as champions
A deal centered around Anthony and Cavaliers All-Star Kevin Love looks like the realistic best-case scenario for New York, since Love is a better player right now, is four years younger, and will make about $3.6 million less in 2017-18. Those are all reasons, of course, that Cleveland rebuffed the Knicks' interest in such a trade before the deadline, according to ESPN's Marc Stein and Chris Haynes.
An ugly playoff loss by the Cavaliers would offer New York the best hope of the Cavs changing their minds about Anthony. And while an early postseason exit might qualify, the best scenario for New York is probably Cleveland reaching the NBA Finals but being unable to keep Love on the court against the Golden State Warriors because of his defensive limitations -- and the Cavs losing decisively.
A Love-Anthony trade would be workable as long as Anthony agreed to waive part of his 15 percent trade bonus to facilitate it, but the Cavaliers would probably want something more from the Knicks -- draft picks or additional depth -- to even things up in terms of value. The worse Love's performance in Cleveland's playoff run, and the worse the Cavaliers lose, the more likely the teams are to find common ground.
The LA Clippers don't reach the conference finals
By all accounts, the Clippers were the suitor most motivated to add Anthony before the deadline. So they might not need the same push as other possible trade partners. Losing anywhere short of the conference finals should be sufficient -- and the playoff bracket has the Clippers trying to get through the Jazz and likely the Warriors to reach the West finals.
An Anthony deal is more workable for the Clippers this summer because they'll no longer have to adhere to the league's "hard cap" of $4 million more than the luxury tax, which they triggered last summer by using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception to re-sign forward Wesley Johnson.
The Clippers could legally send the Knicks a package of Johnson, guard Austin Rivers and forward Paul Pierce, who is guaranteed just $1.1 million of his $3.7 million 2017-18 salary, as long as Anthony waived most of his trade bonus.
Again, the question is where the two teams meet in terms of value. The Clippers would probably prefer to trade Jamal Crawford to New York rather than Rivers, but such a deal doesn't offer much return for Anthony without draft picks or young prospects. And the Clippers can't trade their first-round pick until 2021 at the earliest. (They do have some second-round picks to trade beginning in 2019.)
It's less likely that the Clippers would be motivated to make a trade by an early playoff exit, but the Knicks have to hope the Clips don't unexpectedly knock off the Warriors as part of a deep run. A Cleveland win over the Clippers in the NBA Finals would be a worst-case scenario from the standpoint of Anthony's trade value.
The Boston Celtics come up short in the playoffs, the lottery and free agency
The Celtics are the last of the three teams New York reportedly engaged in trade talks in the belief that Anthony would approve a trade there. Boston beat out Cleveland for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and secured a top-four pick from the Brooklyn Nets (and an additional Nets pick in 2018). Plus, the Celtics have the potential to clear max-level cap space. So they seem to be the longest shot of the three teams that may be interested in Anthony.
To have a shot at trading Anthony to the Celtics, the Knicks would probably need Boston's darkest timeline to unfold. We'll start with the Chicago Bulls holding Isaiah Thomas in check during the teams' first-round series while none of the other Celtics prove capable of creating their own offense in an unlikely (but perhaps not that unlikely) 8-seed upset.
And let's say devastated Boston fans take solace in the upcoming draft lottery, only to see the Brooklyn pick land at No. 4, outside the range of top prospects Lonzo Ball and Markelle Fultz. Boston is left to pick among second-tier point guard prospects who are unlikely to replace Thomas anytime soon.
Furthermore, buoyed by their first-round upset, the Bulls are unwilling to engage with Boston on Jimmy Butler trade talks, while Indiana Pacers forward Paul George unexpectedly makes the All-NBA third team and signs a designated veteran extension to stay in Indiana. So when Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward decides to re-sign in Utah, Boston has few interesting options in free agency.
Maybe, if all that happens, the Celtics might be interested in trading some of their treasure trove of picks for Anthony. But probably not.
And if the Knicks strike out on those three destinations for Melo, he might stay in New York another season, like it or not.
So expect Jackson and the rest of the New York organization to watch this year's postseason closely. What transpires in Cleveland and L.A. may sway the Knicks' chances of getting real value in return for their unhappy veteran star.
oh, the irony.
