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Knicks offseason in review on the trade board

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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#41 » by battabing10 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:21 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:I just wanted to stop in and invite you all to check out the Knicks Offseason in Review on the trade board --
New York Knicks Grades ranged from a C+ to an F+, with 2 D's and one C in between. Expected wins were centered around two predictions of 26 with one prediction down to 23 and two up at 29 and 30.

It is part of a series of reviews we do https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1602893 with the Knicks being the 5th posted so far (Boston/Philly/Nets/Toronto/Knicks)


And for those interested in track record, the TnT board did this the past two years before this one (but with different posters in 2015 in particular):

2016-- https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1478126 In general the reviews ranged from expecting 33 to 40 wins, with letter grades in a tight range from D to C-.
And the corresponding thread here at the time which grew to a robust 18 pages: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1478128


It's a waste of time moaning and groaning about who the Knicks drafted. Just because it was Jackson it was wrong on principle? Come on now LOL. He never worked in isolation and he had Clarence Gaines input. Gaines certainly knows what he is doing. Besides, the Knicks main problem remains defense. DSJ is 6'2" with a 6'0" wingspan with one knee blowout, whose durability is a question, and a casual attitude to playing defense and dishing the ball. I'm sorry but he is the LAST kind of backcourt player the Knicks need.

The Hardaway signing at first is shocking but it is justifiable for two reasons, which is (1) it is in proportion with the new salaries being handed out, and (2) it is an *investment* contract awarded to him not a *reward* for past work. Mills looked at Hardaway's numbers and they have improved-- he is ranked 24th among SG averaging 24+MPG. Not great but he is improving and may actually move the needle a bit. And his TS% is 56.3% which is a little better than average. Mills feels like Hardaway will improve.

This leads to the notion of the direction of the team-- it is clear that, according to Mills at the press conference, that the Melo era is effectively over and that the focus is on rebuilding around KP, Frank, WHG, and Hardaway, with an assist from Baker. If Melo stays it will have to be in a reduced role or there will be trouble-- unlikely because Melo has his brand and his reputation at stake if he doesn't put his best foot forward. If it degenerates into Towelbury.2 then that's on him and the Knicks will move away and move on. He will have to buy in and be Dad Melo or risk getting yanked and/or benched. People act like the NTC makes him all-powerful or it is somehow holding the Knicks hostage-- it doesn't and somebody will have to explain to me how he is.

The Knicks will win at least 30 games next season in a weakened East, and I am optimistic that on defense alone and KP6 getting more quality touches that the Knicks will win closer to 36-38 games.
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#42 » by ChaosHamster » Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:29 pm

Atlanta was willing to give THJ 50mil.

If Knicks offered 55-60, there was a pretty big chance Atlanta would've matched that.

So they went with 70 to be sure they get the player they want.

Of course you could've argue they should've went with a little over 60, but again, they felt Atlanta also really liked THJ, and was ready to overpay for about ~10mil, not 20~.

Baker signing is awful. You can't argue that.

Also agree about not picking up 2nd rounders for money. We could've used some more potential talent.

I feel like Frank vs DSJ debate is pointless at this point. 90% of people who talk about it, didn't see Frank play once. (I hope they at least watched some highlight), and even if some did, their situations were so different its really hard to judge correctly.

And how was Frank a reach? He was around 8th spot in every mock draft there is. Perhaps he slipped a bit in the last weeks, because he couldn't get workouts in, where other guys raised their stock by shooting jumpers in empty gyms..
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#43 » by King of Canada » Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:40 pm

ChaosHamster wrote:Atlanta was willing to give THJ 50mil.

If Knicks offered 55-60, there was a pretty big chance Atlanta would've matched that.

So they went with 70 to be sure they get the player they want.

Of course you could've argue they should've went with a little over 60, but again, they felt Atlanta also really liked THJ, and was ready to overpay for about ~10mil, not 20~.

Baker signing is awful. You can't argue that.

Also agree about not picking up 2nd rounders for money. We could've used some more potential talent.

I feel like Frank vs DSJ debate is pointless at this point. 90% of people who talk about it, didn't see Frank play once. (I hope they at least watched some highlight), and even if some did, their situations were so different its really hard to judge correctly.

And how was Frank a reach? He was around 8th spot in every mock draft there is. Perhaps he slipped a bit in the last weeks, because he couldn't get workouts in, where other guys raised their stock by shooting jumpers in empty gyms..


I wanted DSJ too, but was ok with taking Frank. I'm really looking forward to seeing him play.
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F. Campazzo/ J. Clarkson/ K. Lewis Jr
D. Mitchell/ J. Richardson/S. Merrill
Luka/Melo
Zion/Gay/Gabriel
KAT/Kabengele

F. Mason, Jontay, J. Harris

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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#44 » by magnumt » Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:44 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:I just wanted to stop in and invite you all to check out the Knicks Offseason in Review on the trade board --
New York Knicks Grades ranged from a C+ to an F+, with 2 D's and one C in between. Expected wins were centered around two predictions of 26 with one prediction down to 23 and two up at 29 and 30.

It is part of a series of reviews we do https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1602893 with the Knicks being the 5th posted so far (Boston/Philly/Nets/Toronto/Knicks)

And for those interested in track record, the TnT board did this the past two years before this one (but with different posters in 2015 in particular):

2016-- https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1478126 In general the reviews ranged from expecting 33 to 40 wins, with letter grades in a tight range from D to C-.
And the corresponding thread here at the time which grew to a robust 18 pages: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1478128


I'd actually give it an INCOMPLETE.

Until the Melo situation is resolved (and to an extent the Kyrie situation for all 5 teams rumored), there's still a drastic change yet to be seen on the Knicks grade.

The team may or may not continue to be DRASTICALLY different than what we currently have (which in itself is different than when Draft night rolled around).

But 20-27 wins is a step in the "right" direction in terms of you know what (Doncic!). :D

In terms of the other Atlantic teams, Phish is right, the balance in grades is...imbalanced.

Granted the Nets getting DAR (and a pick) is GREAT, but the late second is not so much. The Nets took on A LOT (and I mean A LOT) of deadish weight to he t those two mediocre picks.

NY may have overpaid for THJr (that still remains to be seen and is all speculation from everyone on both sides of Pro/Con at this point). BUUUUUT, he's not deadweight (yet). He can at least score well. Whereas Crabbe and Carroll were very much deadweight dumps by the Blazers & Raptors.

DAR will have to compete with another PG who got paid last year for the Nets, in Lin. He can play off ball WITH Lin, but in reality you gave up your BEST asset in the deal (Brook Lopez) to get him, WHILE also taking on Mozgov's dead weight.

So in reality: The Nets took on THREE deadweight deals, for TWO mediocre picks (a first atm a second), and one supposedly promising prospect.

That sounds like a WORSE version of the Ryan Anderson proposed deal for Melo so many have turned their noses up at, and yet...it got an "A." :dontknow:

The Nets should've gotten the same or worse grade as NY, given NY had prospects that are waaaaaaaaaay more subjectively valued than what NJ has, and NY!s only two deadweight contracts (currently) are Noah & LT. The Knicks also have their OWN first which is HIGHLY important for a rebuilding or struggling team. The Nets, quite frankly, do not. :dontknow:

--Mags :beer:
BAF 1.0 - Wizards: Year 2
PG: Kemba Walker (32) / Rivers (16) / Felton
SG: Evan Fournier (28) / Evans (20) / Dotson
SF: Gordon Hayward (36)/ Delly (12) / Dudley
PF: Kevin Love (36) / Frye (12) / Ellenson
C: Pau Gasol (32) / Noah (16) / Felicio


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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#45 » by shtolky » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:27 pm

magnumt wrote:
shtolky wrote:Man was Smith's summer league overrated. A pg who scores 17ppg on 45% with 4 assists...ok? But he can sure dunk so I guess that means we should have taken him. Who cares about him, he's not a Knick, when are we gonna stop talking about him. All these raves about how explosive he is yet nothing on his garbage defense. Didn't we just deal with a PG who plays the exact same way? Can't wait to see Frank play and grow.


I :love: your posts soooooooooo much! They're filled with such common sense that the masses fail to realize! :clap:

--Mags :beer:



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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#46 » by shtolky » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:34 pm

magnumt wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:I just wanted to stop in and invite you all to check out the Knicks Offseason in Review on the trade board --
New York Knicks Grades ranged from a C+ to an F+, with 2 D's and one C in between. Expected wins were centered around two predictions of 26 with one prediction down to 23 and two up at 29 and 30.

It is part of a series of reviews we do https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1602893 with the Knicks being the 5th posted so far (Boston/Philly/Nets/Toronto/Knicks)

And for those interested in track record, the TnT board did this the past two years before this one (but with different posters in 2015 in particular):

2016-- https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1478126 In general the reviews ranged from expecting 33 to 40 wins, with letter grades in a tight range from D to C-.
And the corresponding thread here at the time which grew to a robust 18 pages: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1478128


I'd actually give it an INCOMPLETE.

Until the Melo situation is resolved (and to an extent the Kyrie situation for all 5 teams rumored), there's still a drastic change yet to be seen on the Knicks grade.

The team may or may not continue to be DRASTICALLY different than what we currently have (which in itself is different than when Draft night rolled around).

But 20-27 wins is a step in the "right" direction in terms of you know what (Doncic!). :D

In terms of the other Atlantic teams, Phish is right, the balance in grades is...imbalanced.

Granted the Nets getting DAR (and a pick) is GREAT, but the late second is not so much. The Nets took on A LOT (and I mean A LOT) of deadish weight to he t those two mediocre picks.

NY may have overpaid for THJr (that still remains to be seen and is all speculation from everyone on both sides of Pro/Con at this point). BUUUUUT, he's not deadweight (yet). He can at least score well. Whereas Crabbe and Carroll were very much deadweight dumps by the Blazers & Raptors.

DAR will have to compete with another PG who got paid last year for the Nets, in Lin. He can play off ball WITH Lin, but in reality you gave up your BEST asset in the deal (Brook Lopez) to get him, WHILE also taking on Mozgov's dead weight.

So in reality: The Nets took on THREE deadweight deals, for TWO mediocre picks (a first atm a second), and one supposedly promising prospect.

That sounds like a WORSE version of the Ryan Anderson proposed deal for Melo so many have turned their noses up at, and yet...it got an "A." :dontknow:

The Nets should've gotten the same or worse grade as NY, given NY had prospects that are waaaaaaaaaay more subjectively valued than what NJ has, and NY!s only two deadweight contracts (currently) are Noah & LT. The Knicks also have their OWN first which is HIGHLY important for a rebuilding or struggling team. The Nets, quite frankly, do not. :dontknow:

--Mags :beer:



Totally agree about the Nets. Not surprising though that they would get praised while we get trashed. Doesn't really matter what the media or people think. They took on two horrid contracts and one bad contract all for a low first, a second, and Russell. And they gave up a pick in the Russell deal so the picks are actually a wash. They ended up with Russell and a 2nd and took on three bad journeymen contracts. Sure, you can argue they don't have a pick this year so why tank, but that all ends in 2019. All they've done is made themselves into a non top 5, non playoff team...team. I've been down on Russell since before he was taken, so maybe I'm poopooing it more than most, I just don't see how they had a successful offseason.
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#47 » by magnumt » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:56 pm

shtolky wrote:
magnumt wrote:
shtolky wrote:Man was Smith's summer league overrated. A pg who scores 17ppg on 45% with 4 assists...ok? But he can sure dunk so I guess that means we should have taken him. Who cares about him, he's not a Knick, when are we gonna stop talking about him. All these raves about how explosive he is yet nothing on his garbage defense. Didn't we just deal with a PG who plays the exact same way? Can't wait to see Frank play and grow.


I :love: your posts soooooooooo much! They're filled with such common sense that the masses fail to realize! :clap:

--Mags :beer:


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:D

--Mags :beer:
BAF 1.0 - Wizards: Year 2
PG: Kemba Walker (32) / Rivers (16) / Felton
SG: Evan Fournier (28) / Evans (20) / Dotson
SF: Gordon Hayward (36)/ Delly (12) / Dudley
PF: Kevin Love (36) / Frye (12) / Ellenson
C: Pau Gasol (32) / Noah (16) / Felicio


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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#48 » by HartfordWhalers » Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:06 pm

Phish Tank wrote:Lemme ask you one thing then: What would it have taken for the Knicks to get an A-B+ grade? If we're trying to tank and position our team for a tanktastic year, would we get an A-B+? If we trade Melo, do we get an A-B+? What if we didn't even sign THJR?


Obviously not all are equally important but:

1) Not wasting money -- 24m to Phil and 100k to Plumlee is just not wise. If you are being graded on how you use your resources, using them poorly doesn't help even if it is only money.

2) Buying 2nd rounders -- as I noted in the review you had 4 picks between 35 and 50 sold and the Knicks could have used up to 8m but bought zero picks. 3m of that is now expired and cannot be spent, so they missed an opportunity to get a chance at a better basketball product and choose not to even though they spend money elsewhere like it doesn't matter. It is easy to pick on Phil -- and reports that he fell asleep during a draft combine workout don't help -- but regardless of who was at fault the Knicks had a resource that they should have spent and didn't.

3) Dumping vets -- yes a Melo trade may be coming. Hopefully... And maybe it will include Lee and Lance and who knows else. But based off the rumored deals it doesn't sound like it, and Melo has a hefty salary as is making it tough to include more. I would have been aggressively shopping particularly Lee. Bottoming out as a bottom 3 team versus being the 5th-8th picking team is something that makes a huge difference usually, so the more aggressive pursuit of this goal was needed. And maybe Lee could have returned something a rebuilding team could use -- probably not the lotto pick one fan insists but something.
Portland ultimately did Crabbe for Nicholson and 21m in dead money. Would they have done #26 and Crabbe for Lee? Maybe not but I definitely would have asked.
OKC with Kanter for Lee and Kyle O'quinn. Shaves off 12.8m in year 3. And maybe Kanter is an interesting front court partner for Porzingis while Noah recuperates.
Lee + 2nd for Asik + protected 1st would be amazing, but even Lance for Ajinca starts to clear some room.
See if anyone will give up a 2nd for KOQ?

Perhaps nothing special was lost, but I would have liked to see the ball rolling in some regards, with the goals to:
Get worse
Get marginal draft assets
Get salary cap flexibility in the future.

4) Salary cap usage -- Knicks used 16.5m on THjr, and then full room exception on Baker.

Salary dump deals done:
-- While the Knicks didn't have the pieces to make a Russell trade with that Lakers, I will also say that Russell seems a bad fit so that isn't as much a lost opportunity.
-- Atlanta got the Houston 1st for taking on Crawford (and Stone).
-- Nets got Toronto 1st and a good looking 2nd for taking on Carroll (and even got to dump 3m in deadweight).
I would have done either of these deals. Both players are off the cap after two seasons, while the pick will be entering its 2d season then, timed perfectly for when the Knicks should be using cap and getting better and having youth to grow with Porzingis then.

Alternatively:
McRoberts and 5.1m cash and 2nd for Hammons
Corey Joseph for rights to guy never coming over.

These deals were both expiring contracts. The 5m in cash and a 2nd is nice, while the talent gap between Joseph and Hardaway isn't one I would pay the extra money for Hardaway especially when it means a possibly 4 year commitment.

Basically I question that Tim Hardaway Jr is the guy you want locking down sg for the next 4 years at that price tag -- so rolling over cap space in and of itself isn't a bad idea. But getting paid to do so within the time frame that works would be better.

With that much cap space in general, I think you ultimately want either guys who fit a youth movement or guys who will really help you win now. The youth that might have been worth it weren't switching teams in general, but that doesn't mean you spend it all on the next best young-ish guy.

It might not have worked, but offering 16.5m to Noel instead I would have liked more. But I see a lot more potential upside there, and maybe I'm biased. Costco shopping on McLemore I would have liked better than paying Tiffany's prices for Hardaway.

Maybe it will come with Dotson and that is why Baker is unofficial but last year the Knicks and Nets just signed undrafted rookies to one year deals instead of using cap room and offering them a signing bonus to sign up for more future cheap years. Doing that prevents things like Baker from becoming a free agent and getting 3 times his worth, so I would make sure to have some room and have signed some guys as end of bench fliers. Maybe 9 in 10 fail but you fail every time you don't try.

So, yeah, there is a lot I would have liked more than that contract and the Baker one as well.

5) Draft at #8
I've read on here how the preference for DSJ over Frank was based off summer league. I've read on here that the preference was based off not having seen any of Frank. I've read on here that the preference was just because Phil picked it so it must be wrong.

I haven't seen anyone who took the time to read why and actually respond to the reasons raised why. Instead, I've seen those straw men comments applauded and high-fived. Which is seems at odds of having a decent discussion on a fundamental level although I guess others feel different..

I wrapped up my take on #8 in the trade board thread:
I think Phil should have picked the pg that fit Porzingis best (assuming no big tier gaps between prospects). So it is not so much that I had Frank in a different tier (I might have also), but as a much worse fit with the player that the Knicks should have been shaping their offseason around.


And in the review I went in a lot of detail about what I saw Porzingis benefitting most from:

focus on the offensive compliment to Porzingis and tighten the defense from top to bottom later


I went further and expanded upon why:

This is what I wrote last season here:

2016 offseason wrote:Porzingis. Porzingis growth is what the team really needs and will rely on going forward.

Where does it come n the offensive side? Last season, 225 of Porzingis 1028 points last season came as a spot up shooter, scoring with the efficiency of just the 25.9 percentile.
164 roll man (64.4 percentile)
138 post up (44.8 percentile)
135 cuts (33.9 percentile)
100 putbacks (83.8 percentile) Maybe this is why they got Rose and Jennings? :wink:
76 transition (20.3 percentile)
75 off screens (45.9 percentile)
52 isolation (40.9 percentile)
8 points ballhandler (cannot be significant 18.1 percentile)

The spot up shooting hopefully can improve its efficiency, but the real question I would have is can you get a pg and play the pick and roll like Stockton and Malone with that player and Porzingis for the next decade? I don't think that is Rose at all. If not, can Porzingis develop a post game? It wouldn't be my first choice, and Melo Rose and Noah don't seem like a setup to do so. Porzingis might just spend this season shooting more jumpers, and as a third option behind Melo and Rose (who loves to eat up possessions), which is not what I would have liked ideally. Instead, I would be looking at Porzingis and seeing if there is any way to mold him into a first option that can create versus a complimentary player that just scores off others.


I recapped this previously, but last season saw:
1196 total points distributed with:
265 spot up (58.0 percentile)
201 roll man (54.6 percentile)
135 post up (30.5 percentile)
149 cuts (80.0 percentile)
72 put backs (23.4 percentile)
130 transition (50.2 percentile)
103 off screen (67.5 percentile)
67 iso (28.1 percentile)


So, some better spot up shooting and a little more roll man offense, but not enough for what I would be looking for. Here is where I think DSJ driving relentlessly would have made sense, and try to mold Porzingis into one of the best pick and roll partner in the league. Or if not, at least have Monk spotting up and getting Porzingis space (in a triangle like three man game with Melo perhaps?). I'm not sold they have done enough to set up a path to first option for Porzingis, but hopefully I'm just being too low on Frank Ntilikina and his ability to break down a defense.



So, I guess I throw those questions back out to everyone who is busy celebrating that DSJ was only liked because of summer league:
-- Should the guy picked at #8 be targeted specifically on who fits best with Porzingis development? How big of a tier difference would be needed to pick otherwise?

-- Is Porzingis offensive development more important than his defensive development at this stage? If not, what does he need for defensive development?

-- What sort of offensive skills/sets/play types should Porzingis be working on developing and what sort of teammates would help best here?

Or we can discuss how overrated summer league is. While it wasn't a topic in any of the reviews, I would definitely agree that it usually is in more ways than one.

6) Attitude and image mess and the Melo drama.
At the end of the day, players might not care about this. It will wash away shortly enough most likely. But the team just went through an image mess and that doesn't help when you have the chance to be a part of the premier free agent destinations discussion.
Publicly shaming Melo into approving a trade didn't just not work, it alienated Porzingis. All the Melo talk should have been behind closed doors, not to the point the union is asking to look into the legality of Phil's comments.
And then when Porzingis became upset, instead of putting him in his place and shopping him, Phil should have apologized and made it right. The good news was this helped finally get Phil fired. But the team should be about growing Porzingis into a superstar as best as possible (or pairing him with one to grow with), and instead the moves and even the rhetoric haven't felt like that was the goal.

Getting a Melo trade done or having everyone sound happy is definitely needed. And once a Melo trade happens (if?) there will be some re-examination of the grade. But for now the way the situation has been allowed to fester and become toxic is not good, although it didn't particularly have a huge effect.

The reshaped front office might help, but right now so far the only impression is that Mills can spend oodles on TH jr, so it is hard to give credit until a clear chain of command has been established and is functioning. But the potential of that is why I gave a + on my grade.

I'm sure other things as well, but just to give a small smattering of ways in which they could have done things differently.
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#49 » by mugzi » Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:19 pm

br7knicks wrote:I think I had 23 wins with melo, 28 without melo


I had team with most ping pong balls with Melo. 2018 champions without Melo.
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#50 » by HartfordWhalers » Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:29 pm

magnumt wrote:The Nets should've gotten the same or worse grade as NY, given NY had prospects that are waaaaaaaaaay more subjectively valued than what NJ has, and NY!s only two deadweight contracts (currently) are Noah & LT. The Knicks also have their OWN first which is HIGHLY important for a rebuilding or struggling team. The Nets, quite frankly, do not. :dontknow:


This is about this offseason. The Knicks having their pick and the Nets not really wasn't something that happened this offseason. Last season the Nets had a bad offseason imo and got a D from me. This offseason they took the painful steps to set up a better future and got a better grade. As of now, the Knicks did very little that I look at and expect to look back in two years and say doing that then really helps now.

magnumt wrote:Granted the Nets getting DAR (and a pick) is GREAT, but the late second is not so much. The Nets took on A LOT (and I mean A LOT) of deadish weight to he t those two mediocre picks.


The Russell deal wasn't replicable for the Knicks, and Russell I'm not a fan of his fit with Porzingis anyway. So, why I liked it for the Nets isn't really reflective on the Knicks offseason and might best be saved for a thread on the Nets. But the Carroll deal is a direct match up and could have been done:


For Carroll the Nets did
$14,800,000 (-3,000,000) $15,400,000

And received:

2018 first round draft pick from Toronto
Toronto's 1st round pick to Brooklyn protected for selections 1-14 in 2018, 1-14 in 2019, 1-14 in 2020, 1-14 in 2021, 1-14 in 2022 and 1-14 in 2023; if Toronto has not conveyed a 1st round pick to Brooklyn by 2023, then Toronto will instead convey its 2023 2nd round pick and 2024 2nd round pick to Brooklyn

2018 second round draft pick from Orlando or L.A. Lakers (less favorable)
Orlando will receive the more favorable of its 2018 2nd round pick and the L.A. Lakers' 2018 2nd round pick and Brooklyn will receive the less favorable of these two picks (via Orlando to Toronto)


I would look at that and say they will get something akin to:
2018 #22
2018 #38 (is this the pick you are calling a late 2nd? if so, i don't see LAL and/or Orlando being that good next year, but we will see.)

In contrast, Tim Hardaway Jr will cost:
$16,500,000 $17,325,000 $18,150,000 $18,975,000 PO (which is amazing definitely should have been a TO or no PO imo)

So, if we fast forward one year, which would I rather see on a rebuilding New York area team:
#22
#38
expiring Carroll 15.4m

or

Tim Hardaway Jr $17,325,000 $18,150,000 $18,975,000 PO

I don't have that close at all and would much rather have the first batch. Do you think TH JR will be flippable for more than an expiring and those picks next year?

(I also have Carroll still have on the court value, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Nets squeeze out more value in a year flipping him).
There is a very direct comparison on this deal versus the Hardaway deal for cap space, and I think it massively favors the Nets. I'm not convinced that TH Jr gets expirings next year.
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#51 » by louieOrr » Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:57 pm

KnicksGod wrote:
shtolky wrote:Man was Smith's summer league overrated. A pg who scores 17ppg on 45% with 4 assists...ok? But he can sure dunk so I guess that means we should have taken him. Who cares about him, he's not a Knick, when are we gonna stop talking about him. All these raves about how explosive he is yet nothing on his garbage defense. Didn't we just deal with a PG who plays the exact same way? Can't wait to see Frank play and grow.


Yeah it's bound to turn into nothing much IMO. Dennis could have a good couple of years, I'm sure he will because he does have some definite NBA traits, but I don't see the long-term game changer. He'd just be another reason to be depressed most likely. Fake good.


Hey who knows?

Ntilikina may be Rondo on steroids.

Smith Jr could turn out to be Henderson Jr.

Celts picks have been primarily lack-luster. Ainge has shown the ability to stockpile assets from a stupid team like the Nets. His scouting leaves much to be desired, and while he acquires some upper echelon talent, its not quite the Elite talent they are going to need.

Edit: I do however think Brad Stevens was a great , great hire. That is their biggest advantage IMO
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#52 » by louieOrr » Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:23 pm

battabing10 wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:I just wanted to stop in and invite you all to check out the Knicks Offseason in Review on the trade board --
New York Knicks Grades ranged from a C+ to an F+, with 2 D's and one C in between. Expected wins were centered around two predictions of 26 with one prediction down to 23 and two up at 29 and 30.

It is part of a series of reviews we do https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1602893 with the Knicks being the 5th posted so far (Boston/Philly/Nets/Toronto/Knicks)


And for those interested in track record, the TnT board did this the past two years before this one (but with different posters in 2015 in particular):

2016-- https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1478126 In general the reviews ranged from expecting 33 to 40 wins, with letter grades in a tight range from D to C-.
And the corresponding thread here at the time which grew to a robust 18 pages: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1478128


It's a waste of time moaning and groaning about who the Knicks drafted. Just because it was Jackson it was wrong on principle? Come on now LOL. He never worked in isolation and he had Clarence Gaines input. Gaines certainly knows what he is doing. Besides, the Knicks main problem remains defense. DSJ is 6'2" with a 6'0" wingspan with one knee blowout, whose durability is a question, and a casual attitude to playing defense and dishing the ball. I'm sorry but he is the LAST kind of backcourt player the Knicks need.

The Hardaway signing at first is shocking but it is justifiable for two reasons, which is (1) it is in proportion with the new salaries being handed out, and (2) it is an *investment* contract awarded to him not a *reward* for past work. Mills looked at Hardaway's numbers and they have improved-- he is ranked 24th among SG averaging 24+MPG. Not great but he is improving and may actually move the needle a bit. And his TS% is 56.3% which is a little better than average. Mills feels like Hardaway will improve.

This leads to the notion of the direction of the team-- it is clear that, according to Mills at the press conference, that the Melo era is effectively over and that the focus is on rebuilding around KP, Frank, WHG, and Hardaway, with an assist from Baker. If Melo stays it will have to be in a reduced role or there will be trouble-- unlikely because Melo has his brand and his reputation at stake if he doesn't put his best foot forward. If it degenerates into Towelbury.2 then that's on him and the Knicks will move away and move on. He will have to buy in and be Dad Melo or risk getting yanked and/or benched. People act like the NTC makes him all-powerful or it is somehow holding the Knicks hostage-- it doesn't and somebody will have to explain to me how he is.

The Knicks will win at least 30 games next season in a weakened East, and I am optimistic that on defense alone and KP6 getting more quality touches that the Knicks will win closer to 36-38 games.


Call me crazy, but I think the team can surprise if the Melo situation is handled correctly by all. We have some nice talent. If everyone is buying into a system of sharing the ball, centered around Porzingas. We could get into the playoffs in a weak EC. Possibly better than 8th seed too. Not everything goes as scripted every time. That's WHY you play the game :)
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#53 » by Greenie » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:19 pm

KnicksGod wrote:I stand by my statement that, regardless of wins, the team will play a better brand of basketball without Melo. It's hard to measure such a thing objectively but we'll know it when we see it.

Yeah they'll lose a lot but they'll have some surprise wins and keep games close by passing and playing better D.

Playing better should mean wins.
We will play worse with less talent. Fine with me, I want the 1st pick.
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#54 » by KnicksGod » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:39 pm

Greenie wrote:
KnicksGod wrote:I stand by my statement that, regardless of wins, the team will play a better brand of basketball without Melo. It's hard to measure such a thing objectively but we'll know it when we see it.

Yeah they'll lose a lot but they'll have some surprise wins and keep games close by passing and playing better D.

Playing better should mean wins.
We will play worse with less talent. Fine with me, I want the 1st pick.


They need to start doing things they can't do with Melo.
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#55 » by battabing10 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:45 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
Phish Tank wrote:Lemme ask you one thing then: What would it have taken for the Knicks to get an A-B+ grade? If we're trying to tank and position our team for a tanktastic year, would we get an A-B+? If we trade Melo, do we get an A-B+? What if we didn't even sign THJR?


Obviously not all are equally important but:

1) Not wasting money -- 24m to Phil and 100k to Plumlee is just not wise. If you are being graded on how you use your resources, using them poorly doesn't help even if it is only money.

2) Buying 2nd rounders -- as I noted in the review you had 4 picks between 35 and 50 sold and the Knicks could have used up to 8m but bought zero picks. 3m of that is now expired and cannot be spent, so they missed an opportunity to get a chance at a better basketball product and choose not to even though they spend money elsewhere like it doesn't matter. It is easy to pick on Phil -- and reports that he fell asleep during a draft combine workout don't help -- but regardless of who was at fault the Knicks had a resource that they should have spent and didn't.

3) Dumping vets -- yes a Melo trade may be coming. Hopefully... And maybe it will include Lee and Lance and who knows else. But based off the rumored deals it doesn't sound like it, and Melo has a hefty salary as is making it tough to include more. I would have been aggressively shopping particularly Lee. Bottoming out as a bottom 3 team versus being the 5th-8th picking team is something that makes a huge difference usually, so the more aggressive pursuit of this goal was needed. And maybe Lee could have returned something a rebuilding team could use -- probably not the lotto pick one fan insists but something.
Portland ultimately did Crabbe for Nicholson and 21m in dead money. Would they have done #26 and Crabbe for Lee? Maybe not but I definitely would have asked.
OKC with Kanter for Lee and Kyle O'quinn. Shaves off 12.8m in year 3. And maybe Kanter is an interesting front court partner for Porzingis while Noah recuperates.
Lee + 2nd for Asik + protected 1st would be amazing, but even Lance for Ajinca starts to clear some room.
See if anyone will give up a 2nd for KOQ?

Perhaps nothing special was lost, but I would have liked to see the ball rolling in some regards, with the goals to:
Get worse
Get marginal draft assets
Get salary cap flexibility in the future.

4) Salary cap usage -- Knicks used 16.5m on THjr, and then full room exception on Baker.

Salary dump deals done:
-- While the Knicks didn't have the pieces to make a Russell trade with that Lakers, I will also say that Russell seems a bad fit so that isn't as much a lost opportunity.
-- Atlanta got the Houston 1st for taking on Crawford (and Stone).
-- Nets got Toronto 1st and a good looking 2nd for taking on Carroll (and even got to dump 3m in deadweight).
I would have done either of these deals. Both players are off the cap after two seasons, while the pick will be entering its 2d season then, timed perfectly for when the Knicks should be using cap and getting better and having youth to grow with Porzingis then.

Alternatively:
McRoberts and 5.1m cash and 2nd for Hammons
Corey Joseph for rights to guy never coming over.

These deals were both expiring contracts. The 5m in cash and a 2nd is nice, while the talent gap between Joseph and Hardaway isn't one I would pay the extra money for Hardaway especially when it means a possibly 4 year commitment.

Basically I question that Tim Hardaway Jr is the guy you want locking down sg for the next 4 years at that price tag -- so rolling over cap space in and of itself isn't a bad idea. But getting paid to do so within the time frame that works would be better.

With that much cap space in general, I think you ultimately want either guys who fit a youth movement or guys who will really help you win now. The youth that might have been worth it weren't switching teams in general, but that doesn't mean you spend it all on the next best young-ish guy.

It might not have worked, but offering 16.5m to Noel instead I would have liked more. But I see a lot more potential upside there, and maybe I'm biased. Costco shopping on McLemore I would have liked better than paying Tiffany's prices for Hardaway.

Maybe it will come with Dotson and that is why Baker is unofficial but last year the Knicks and Nets just signed undrafted rookies to one year deals instead of using cap room and offering them a signing bonus to sign up for more future cheap years. Doing that prevents things like Baker from becoming a free agent and getting 3 times his worth, so I would make sure to have some room and have signed some guys as end of bench fliers. Maybe 9 in 10 fail but you fail every time you don't try.

So, yeah, there is a lot I would have liked more than that contract and the Baker one as well.

5) Draft at #8
I've read on here how the preference for DSJ over Frank was based off summer league. I've read on here that the preference was based off not having seen any of Frank. I've read on here that the preference was just because Phil picked it so it must be wrong.

I haven't seen anyone who took the time to read why and actually respond to the reasons raised why. Instead, I've seen those straw men comments applauded and high-fived. Which is seems at odds of having a decent discussion on a fundamental level although I guess others feel different..

I wrapped up my take on #8 in the trade board thread:
I think Phil should have picked the pg that fit Porzingis best (assuming no big tier gaps between prospects). So it is not so much that I had Frank in a different tier (I might have also), but as a much worse fit with the player that the Knicks should have been shaping their offseason around.


And in the review I went in a lot of detail about what I saw Porzingis benefitting most from:

focus on the offensive compliment to Porzingis and tighten the defense from top to bottom later


I went further and expanded upon why:

This is what I wrote last season here:

2016 offseason wrote:Porzingis. Porzingis growth is what the team really needs and will rely on going forward.

Where does it come n the offensive side? Last season, 225 of Porzingis 1028 points last season came as a spot up shooter, scoring with the efficiency of just the 25.9 percentile.
164 roll man (64.4 percentile)
138 post up (44.8 percentile)
135 cuts (33.9 percentile)
100 putbacks (83.8 percentile) Maybe this is why they got Rose and Jennings? :wink:
76 transition (20.3 percentile)
75 off screens (45.9 percentile)
52 isolation (40.9 percentile)
8 points ballhandler (cannot be significant 18.1 percentile)

The spot up shooting hopefully can improve its efficiency, but the real question I would have is can you get a pg and play the pick and roll like Stockton and Malone with that player and Porzingis for the next decade? I don't think that is Rose at all. If not, can Porzingis develop a post game? It wouldn't be my first choice, and Melo Rose and Noah don't seem like a setup to do so. Porzingis might just spend this season shooting more jumpers, and as a third option behind Melo and Rose (who loves to eat up possessions), which is not what I would have liked ideally. Instead, I would be looking at Porzingis and seeing if there is any way to mold him into a first option that can create versus a complimentary player that just scores off others.


I recapped this previously, but last season saw:
1196 total points distributed with:
265 spot up (58.0 percentile)
201 roll man (54.6 percentile)
135 post up (30.5 percentile)
149 cuts (80.0 percentile)
72 put backs (23.4 percentile)
130 transition (50.2 percentile)
103 off screen (67.5 percentile)
67 iso (28.1 percentile)


So, some better spot up shooting and a little more roll man offense, but not enough for what I would be looking for. Here is where I think DSJ driving relentlessly would have made sense, and try to mold Porzingis into one of the best pick and roll partner in the league. Or if not, at least have Monk spotting up and getting Porzingis space (in a triangle like three man game with Melo perhaps?). I'm not sold they have done enough to set up a path to first option for Porzingis, but hopefully I'm just being too low on Frank Ntilikina and his ability to break down a defense.



So, I guess I throw those questions back out to everyone who is busy celebrating that DSJ was only liked because of summer league:
-- Should the guy picked at #8 be targeted specifically on who fits best with Porzingis development? How big of a tier difference would be needed to pick otherwise?

-- Is Porzingis offensive development more important than his defensive development at this stage? If not, what does he need for defensive development?

-- What sort of offensive skills/sets/play types should Porzingis be working on developing and what sort of teammates would help best here?

Or we can discuss how overrated summer league is. While it wasn't a topic in any of the reviews, I would definitely agree that it usually is in more ways than one.

6) Attitude and image mess and the Melo drama.
At the end of the day, players might not care about this. It will wash away shortly enough most likely. But the team just went through an image mess and that doesn't help when you have the chance to be a part of the premier free agent destinations discussion.
Publicly shaming Melo into approving a trade didn't just not work, it alienated Porzingis. All the Melo talk should have been behind closed doors, not to the point the union is asking to look into the legality of Phil's comments.
And then when Porzingis became upset, instead of putting him in his place and shopping him, Phil should have apologized and made it right. The good news was this helped finally get Phil fired. But the team should be about growing Porzingis into a superstar as best as possible (or pairing him with one to grow with), and instead the moves and even the rhetoric haven't felt like that was the goal.

Getting a Melo trade done or having everyone sound happy is definitely needed. And once a Melo trade happens (if?) there will be some re-examination of the grade. But for now the way the situation has been allowed to fester and become toxic is not good, although it didn't particularly have a huge effect.

The reshaped front office might help, but right now so far the only impression is that Mills can spend oodles on TH jr, so it is hard to give credit until a clear chain of command has been established and is functioning. But the potential of that is why I gave a + on my grade.

I'm sure other things as well, but just to give a small smattering of ways in which they could have done things differently.


too much here for me to respond to so i'm going to focus on "developing around kp6." my ideas about how to build a champion differ from yours, at least in the case of kp6 vis a vis the knicks. first, the stated goal by mills and the coach is that they will emphasize defense first. so there's that. but it's also the *right* way to build in principle anyway. you can't "add defense later" as you say. you can't "build" without an identity and mills said rightly that the knicks identity will be defense first, which leads to those opinions believing that dsj is somehow the better or more appropriate selection. wrong again. if the knicks are building a defense-first mentality then dsj is the wrong choice and frank the right one.

with this in mind, lets return to kp6: the best way to help kp6's development is on the *defensive* end of the floor. getting good defenders to play with a potentially great one is the best way to realize that potential. it will confidence in him and, with that confidence, will be able to activate the leadership gene-- if he has one. i think he does.

as to "well what about developing his offense?" he has had to defer to melo for two years, with only spotty reciprocity from melo on offense, with no help at all on defense from melo. now, throw rose into the mix last year and you compound the problems *you already have* with melo. you can hide one bad defender-- maybe-- but two?!? no chance. and rose's ineptitude in general and his lack of rapport with kp6 hurt kp6's development on both sides of the ball. with him getting more touches what he will need to relax and make the game slow down for him, so far as that is possible. and again, coming full circle, frank fits in beautifully here because he hasn't been trained to pound the ball, but rather make the right pass and move without the ball. baker is much the same way AND he is an eager defender imagine him and baker together??

so again, i say you will see a much different kp6 this season.
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#56 » by VirginiaKnickFan » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:53 pm

Greenie wrote:
KnicksGod wrote:I stand by my statement that, regardless of wins, the team will play a better brand of basketball without Melo. It's hard to measure such a thing objectively but we'll know it when we see it.

Yeah they'll lose a lot but they'll have some surprise wins and keep games close by passing and playing better D.

Playing better should mean wins.
We will play worse with less talent. Fine with me, I want the 1st pick.


1st overall? Now that would take some Knicks lottery luck that hasn't been seen since 1985. Kind of like winning the Powerball. :lol:
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#57 » by Greenie » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:07 am

:banghead:
KnicksGod wrote:
Greenie wrote:
KnicksGod wrote:I stand by my statement that, regardless of wins, the team will play a better brand of basketball without Melo. It's hard to measure such a thing objectively but we'll know it when we see it.

Yeah they'll lose a lot but they'll have some surprise wins and keep games close by passing and playing better D.

Playing better should mean wins.
We will play worse with less talent. Fine with me, I want the 1st pick.


They need to start doing things they can't do with Melo.

Like what?
People love putting that on Melo instead of the skillet of the rest of these guys.
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#58 » by BKlutch » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:13 am

KnicksGod wrote:
Greenie wrote:
KnicksGod wrote:I stand by my statement that, regardless of wins, the team will play a better brand of basketball without Melo. It's hard to measure such a thing objectively but we'll know it when we see it.

Yeah they'll lose a lot but they'll have some surprise wins and keep games close by passing and playing better D.

Playing better should mean wins.
We will play worse with less talent. Fine with me, I want the 1st pick.


They need to start doing things they can't do with Melo.

Team ball! Uptempo offense! Letting the open man take the shot! Yay!
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#59 » by Besart19 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:17 am

To play uptempo we need T.Harris, Doncic, Harkless and Taylor via trades and draft

You wont be an uptempo team with Kuz, LFT, Baker and Lee
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Re: Knicks offseason in review on the trade board 

Post#60 » by matchman » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:41 am

We like to criticize our team but the same cannot be applied to others.
Are you fans of the team or the player?

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