Clyde_Style wrote:god shammgod wrote:back on topic. while i do think it would be better if we tanked, or whatever you call it, they're not going to. not any time soon. so unless we get lucky with the lottery balls, we're not picking at the top of the draft. so hope to either get lucky with the draw or get lucky with the pick. because all this good gm talk when it comes to picks is mostly nonsense. sure some people scout better than others, but a lot of times a great player with a later lottery pick just happens to be one of 2 or 3 players that are supposed to be picked around there and you luck into it. not an organization in the league had donovan mitchell in their top 5, including utah, good scouting be damned.
Not top 5, but I think he was under legit consideration from 8-12.
per the bolded part, it is not so much whether there is a league-wide consensus about a player being picked later, but it is about the sole club that realizes that player should go higher when nobody else does and selects them
which begs the question:
Have All-Stars picked after the 15th pick consistently been taken by clubs recognized to have superior management or has it actually been random to the point of luck?
Some clubs are better at drafting than others it seems.
Kahwi - Spurs
Green - GS
are the two that immediately come to mind and those clubs are well managed
2nd round picks, like green, are something else entirely because at that point it's basically an open field and it's mostly about scouting.
but in the lottery you never see, for example, a guy who in a mock draft is predicted to be taken somewhere around 12 or 13 taken, let's say, 3rd by a team. that never happens. but at times those guys do become the 3rd best player in the draft. it all mostly goes by script with a slight deviation of 1 or 2 places. nobody seems to be able to scout that well. they basically are choosing between a,b & c. and when they pick correctly we call them a genius.