j4remi wrote:GONYK wrote:j4remi wrote:
Nah, I don't agree with the assertion that Jack is better just because he's steadier. Jack is always AWFUL on defense as opposed to just "when he's bad, he's baaad." Jack is steadily handicapping our defense the way that Frank handicaps the offense, but only when he's playing poorly.
In short, my assertion would be that if Frank started starting 20 games ago, the difference in record would be negligible. To be fair, I'm factoring in the quality of teams we've beaten in that span and that Jack's plus/minus was in the negatives for about half those wins anyway.
I didn't say Jack was better. I said he was steadier, and thus easier for a coach to trust and game plan for.
I'm trying to think about this like Jeff, not how I personally feel about the effectiveness of each player.
With Jack, I know I'm getting around 12 pts/7 assists, bad defense, but a steady level of composure.
With Frank, I know I'm getting defensive effort. Period. The rest is still in flux. Will he get into foul trouble? Will he be aggressive on offense? Will he have a rough time with the ball pressure tonight or will he be in command?
I'm not knocking Frank at all. Just thinking about it like a coach who wants the highest chance of winning every night.
I feel like the better player is gonna give you the best probability for winning. If consistency is the logic, young players by and large will always be limited in their play time and as an effect; they'll continue to be inconsistent. But just focusing onwhich player gives you the best chance to win; I'd take my chances on the guy guaranteed to play good on defense with a chance to be good offensively over the guy guaranteed to play solid offense but with no chance to be good on the other end. Like I said, the difference in results would be negligible at best in my eyes and that means I don't agree with the highest probability of winning defense.
This is not directly addressing the points of your discussion, which are good ones on both sides, but I think it's important to the discussion nonetheless:
Many coaches, like Horny, seem to kind of have a subtly defeatist attitude about their D. They are making an implicit conclusion that Well our team is going to give up a lot of points anyway. It's hard to stop NBA offenses even with good defense. So at least with Jack, the thinking goes, I feel like the offense will be run better, we won't have bad turnovers, and maybe that will be enough to win the game. The rising tide of O will lift the team in general.
But it's false IMO. The opposite is more true. Good defense, especially when you have a lead, is the rising tide that lifts all boats. If you don't get stops, it demoralizes the team and it really jumpstarts the other team's comeback. I haven't looked at the numbers, but they've blown a lot of leads late in games with Jack and it's because of D.
A turnover here or there is not that demoralizing. Yes Jack has a more consistent ability to run the team right now. But as long as we play Jack, we will be at risk of blowing a lot of leads.
Many subpar coaches deemphasize D late and it hurts. Our coach won't even put in Frank for offense-defense switches. He just uses Jack on defensive possessions late too.