FiveThirtyEight Expects Us To Finish LAST

Post #21 » by **NoLayupRule** » Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:48 pm

well when has 538 ever been wrong

Post #22 » by **NoLayupRule** » Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:50 pm

HarthorneWingo wrote:Wow. Gonna be a long year.

glad I bought that team pass!

I get to watch every second of every loss away from NYC even

reub · Post #23 » by **reub** » Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:59 pm

NoLayupRule wrote:well when has 538 ever been wrong

Exactly!

Clyde_Style · Post #24 » by **Clyde_Style** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:08 am

NoLayupRule wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:Wow. Gonna be a long year.

glad I bought that team pass!

I get to watch every second of every loss away from NYC even

Instead of buying a league pass I'll invest the money in dry ice to cool off the planet

Clyde_Style · Post #25 » by **Clyde_Style** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:09 am

QUESTION:

Will Michael Jordan be available in the upcoming draft?

Post #26 » by **KnicksGod** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:23 am

Post #27 » by **KnicksGod** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:26 am

reub wrote:
NoLayupRule wrote:well when has 538 ever been wrong

Exactly!

But Nate didn't really get it wrong. He said that the race was one normal polling error away from going to Trump. He was warning of it repeatedly the night before, saying Trump had about a 1 out of 3 shot, and he even said specifically that the undecided voters in the Midwest made it dangerous for Hillary. And that her support there was really soft.

I'd say more like -- he didn't have to show you that Trump was favored to be right. The polls didn't show that he was ahead, so his model wouldn't of course, but he was pretty clear that the race was closer to uncertain than most thought.

Post #28 » by **NoLayupRule** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:41 am

KnicksGod wrote:
reub wrote:
NoLayupRule wrote:well when has 538 ever been wrong

Exactly!

But Nate didn't really get it wrong. He said that the race was one normal polling error away from going to Trump. He was warning of it repeatedly the night before, saying Trump had about a 1 out of 3 shot, and he even said specifically that the undecided voters in the Midwest made it dangerous for Hillary. And that her support there was really soft.

I'd say more like -- he didn't have to show you that Trump was favored to be right. The polls didn't show that he was ahead, so his model wouldn't of course, but he was pretty clear that the race was closer to uncertain than most thought.

sure

he always warned that if everything fell just right Trump could win with an improbable minority vote

but 538 can only predict what it has data for and sports like politics changes and is subject to external affects

Clyde_Style · Post #29 » by **Clyde_Style** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:42 am

KnicksGod wrote:
reub wrote:
NoLayupRule wrote:well when has 538 ever been wrong

Exactly!

But Nate didn't really get it wrong. He said that the race was one normal polling error away from going to Trump. He was warning of it repeatedly the night before, saying Trump had about a 1 out of 3 shot, and he even said specifically that the undecided voters in the Midwest made it dangerous for Hillary. And that her support there was really soft.

I'd say more like -- he didn't have to show you that Trump was favored to be right. The polls didn't show that he was ahead, so his model wouldn't of course, but he was pretty clear that the race was closer to uncertain than most thought.

Well, it is kind of hard to statistically predict half of the voting machines in downtown Detroit not working for some reason on election day in an election that swung the whole electoral college by a margin of only 70,000 votes in exactly the states he needed to win, but was statistically completely improbable while she won the popular vote by 3 million. Mueller is now investigating actual voting machine hacks in Wisconsin and Michigan. That's why he crushed Manafort into cooperating as he had the dirt on the election hacking.

Silver would have been right if the election had not been stolen.

HarthorneWingo · Post #30 » by **HarthorneWingo** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:55 am

NoLayupRule wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:Wow. Gonna be a long year.

glad I bought that team pass!

I get to watch every second of every loss away from NYC even

They have team passes now? That's good. At least you didn't buy the League Pass.

What part of the country do you live in?

HarthorneWingo · Post #31 » by **HarthorneWingo** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:56 am

Clyde_Style wrote:
NoLayupRule wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:Wow. Gonna be a long year.

glad I bought that team pass!

I get to watch every second of every loss away from NYC even

Instead of buying a league pass I'll invest the money in dry ice to cool off the planet

I'm designing a very large outdoor air conditioner.

SelbyCobra · Post #32 » by **SelbyCobra** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:01 am

K-DOT wrote:Tied for last, technically, but that makes sense

Can I wager my kids' college funds on us losing that coin toss now, or is the prop not on the board yet?

Clyde_Style · Post #33 » by **Clyde_Style** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:07 am

HarthorneWingo wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:
NoLayupRule wrote:glad I bought that team pass!

I get to watch every second of every loss away from NYC even

Instead of buying a league pass I'll invest the money in dry ice to cool off the planet

I'm designing a very large outdoor air conditioner.

I'm going to rock earrings made of icebergs at fashion week and fart an arctic blast on the runway that blows Anna Wintour off her chair

Adelheid · Post #34 » by **Adelheid** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:17 am

NoLayupRule wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:Wow. Gonna be a long year.

glad I bought that team pass!

I get to watch every second of every loss away from NYC even

You are such a masochist.
Oh wait, all Knicks fans are masochists :lol:

HarthorneWingo · Post #35 » by **HarthorneWingo** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:43 am

Clyde_Style wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:
Instead of buying a league pass I'll invest the money in dry ice to cool off the planet

I'm designing a very large outdoor air conditioner.

I'm going to rock earrings made of icebergs at fashion week and fart an arctic blast on the runway that blows Anna Wintour off her chair

You win!

Garbagelo · Post #36 » by **Garbagelo** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:44 am

Best news of the year

WargamesX · Post #37 » by **WargamesX** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:54 am

I am already ready to draft Cam Reddish.

RHODEY · Post #38 » by **RHODEY** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:13 am

awy wrote:reasonable.

i thought there was some chance that fiz could coach these guys to 25 wins but after this preseason, nah, not that fast.

So we were 3-2 in the preseason, based off of that I would think we could expect more wins. I want a stud pick... so whatever we'll see.

Sark · Post #39 » by **Sark** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:58 am

PorzinGAWD wrote:I am already ready to draft Cam Reddish.

You mean RJ Barrett, right?

TheGreenArrow · Post #40 » by **TheGreenArrow** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:10 am

PorzinGAWD wrote:I am already ready to draft Cam Reddish.