The Great Tank Battle!

[BKlutch]

One thing that makes this kind of discussion hard is what is called "pessimism bias." This is when a person, possibly depressed, tends to see the most pessimistic outcome no matter the logic of a situation. So if we finish in second place for the lottery, pessimism bias would cause a person to lament that we're going to get screwed in the lottery and wind up with the lowest possible pick.

Yeah, we've had bad luck. We all know that. We've also stunk and our team has been poorly managed. But the (bad) luck we've had in the past cannot possibly affect what happens this time. It's the same as when the odds of getting heads are still 50% even though you'e just had 3 heads in a row.

Pessimism bias is more common when people are depressed, beaten down, or just suffering from prolonged trauma. They can't see that a logical conclusion would be far less pessimistic. and they often feel they can always say, "See, I was right about how bad I said we were going to do." "Look, we missed OK4 and got this dingus Porzingus." etc.

We all know who on this board suffers from pessimism bias. Of course, those of us who don't have it may have our own little quirks, so let's be charitable to our pessimists. They may be suffering from the Knicks even more than we are.

[Jeff Van Gully]

I’m trying to set myself up for the disappointment of not landing a top 3 pick… but i just can’t do it yet

that possibility for the worst record is alarmingly high.

Well yeah i’m just referring to the lottery odds. Even with the worst record there’s still a 59.9% chance of picking outside the top 3.

yeah. i was agreeing. it's crazy. i like it. just hate it for us as big losers this year.

[Jeff Van Gully]

Irony is that Adam redistributed the odds to deter tanking but it only encourages more widespread tanking due to increased odds for fringe lotto teams

TBD, we've yet to see this actual lottery play out. Could see one or more surprises. If fringe lotto teams are consistently getting top 4 picks then there would be a ton less incentive to actually hit the bottom like teams have been doing. I think a whole new element of randomness has been added but we won't know until we see it play out for the first time and beyond.

Regardless of how it plays out, you’re staring @ better odds as a fringe lotto team and since mathematicians have taken over in FOs, you’d be hard pressed to keep the foot on the gas and you’ll see more instances of MEM, who I imagine said “well, let’s roll the dice and see what we get in the lotto bc it’s much better odds that we don’t convey our pick.

It’s the 1st year of new odds, but long term can’t see how the new odds dont’ incentive fringe playoff teams throwing the towel and snowballing teams tanking their ways into the lotto vs getting into the playoffs especially in years where the draft is loaded.

Take this past draft, if we had the new odds for last year, pretty confident saying we would’ve seen historical blatant tanking among the league especially for fringe playoff teams.

plus 1 for your point of time will tell.

i completely get it. what makes more sense to my FO? 8th seed in the east or 9th seed where 4 teams get picked? depending on how my team is constructed, that lottery might seem more helpful than a playoff series.

but, you're still not really a tanking team if you're sniffing the playoffs. you benefit from something i think still deincentivizes tanking overall.

we'll have to see if the lower seed playoff contenders start to bail. i can't see that happening. memphis is due for a rebuild. they gave gasol and conley more than enough time. a better example of what you're saying would be observing what fringe playoff teams do in april.

[cuyankees]

TBD, we've yet to see this actual lottery play out. Could see one or more surprises. If fringe lotto teams are consistently getting top 4 picks then there would be a ton less incentive to actually hit the bottom like teams have been doing. I think a whole new element of randomness has been added but we won't know until we see it play out for the first time and beyond.

Regardless of how it plays out, you’re staring @ better odds as a fringe lotto team and since mathematicians have taken over in FOs, you’d be hard pressed to keep the foot on the gas and you’ll see more instances of MEM, who I imagine said “well, let’s roll the dice and see what we get in the lotto bc it’s much better odds that we don’t convey our pick.

It’s the 1st year of new odds, but long term can’t see how the new odds dont’ incentive fringe playoff teams throwing the towel and snowballing teams tanking their ways into the lotto vs getting into the playoffs especially in years where the draft is loaded.

Take this past draft, if we had the new odds for last year, pretty confident saying we would’ve seen historical blatant tanking among the league especially for fringe playoff teams.

plus 1 for your point of time will tell.

i completely get it. what makes more sense to my FO? 8th seed in the east or 9th seed where 4 teams get picked? depending on how my team is constructed, that lottery might seem more helpful than a playoff series.

but, you're still not really a tanking team if you're sniffing the playoffs. you benefit from something i think still deincentivizes tanking overall.

we'll have to see if the lower seed playoff contenders start to bail. i can't see that happening. memphis is due for a rebuild. they gave gasol and conley more than enough time. a better example of what you're saying would be observing what fringe playoff teams do in april.

Def a predicament and sme years you'll see blatant tanking by fringe playoff teams sometimes you won't. @ the base of it, you get your math guys to run #s on playoff revenue vs cost savings from increased probability of getting a low cost "stud". Obvi other variables in the model, but the way NBA is going draft capital is pretty so can see more teams leaning that way.

[Clyde Frazier]

that possibility for the worst record is alarmingly high.

Well yeah i’m just referring to the lottery odds. Even with the worst record there’s still a 59.9% chance of picking outside the top 3.

yeah. i was agreeing. it's crazy. i like it. just hate it for us as big losers this year.

heh just realized i forgot to include a "not" in my original response. makes more sense now.

[Clyde Frazier]

One thing that makes this kind of discussion hard is what is called "pessimism bias." This is when a person, possibly depressed, tends to see the most pessimistic outcome no matter the logic of a situation. So if we finish in second place for the lottery, pessimism bias would cause a person to lament that we're going to get screwed in the lottery and wind up with the lowest possible pick.

Yeah, we've had bad luck. We all know that. We've also stunk and our team has been poorly managed. But the (bad) luck we've had in the past cannot possibly affect what happens this time. It's the same as when the odds of getting heads are still 50% even though you'e just had 3 heads in a row.

Pessimism bias is more common when people are depressed, beaten down, or just suffering from prolonged trauma. They can't see that a logical conclusion would be far less pessimistic. and they often feel they can always say, "See, I was right about how bad I said we were going to do." "Look, we missed OK4 and got this dingus Porzingus." etc.

We all know who on this board suffers from pessimism bias. Of course, those of us who don't have it may have our own little quirks, so let's be charitable to our pessimists. They may be suffering from the Knicks even more than we are.

We're (somehow still) knicks fans. Why wouldn't we have pessimism bias?

[BKlutch]

One thing that makes this kind of discussion hard is what is called "pessimism bias." This is when a person, possibly depressed, tends to see the most pessimistic outcome no matter the logic of a situation. So if we finish in second place for the lottery, pessimism bias would cause a person to lament that we're going to get screwed in the lottery and wind up with the lowest possible pick.

Yeah, we've had bad luck. We all know that. We've also stunk and our team has been poorly managed. But the (bad) luck we've had in the past cannot possibly affect what happens this time. It's the same as when the odds of getting heads are still 50% even though you'e just had 3 heads in a row.

Pessimism bias is more common when people are depressed, beaten down, or just suffering from prolonged trauma. They can't see that a logical conclusion would be far less pessimistic. and they often feel they can always say, "See, I was right about how bad I said we were going to do." "Look, we missed OK4 and got this dingus Porzingus." etc.

We all know who on this board suffers from pessimism bias. Of course, those of us who don't have it may have our own little quirks, so let's be charitable to our pessimists. They may be suffering from the Knicks even more than we are.

We're (somehow still) knicks fans. Why wouldn't we have pessimism bias?

To remain a fan after the past decades means that somewhere, deep inside the soul of the fan, resides a glimmer of hope.

[BKAY]

but, you're still not really a tanking team if you're sniffing the playoffs. you benefit from something i think still deincentivizes tanking overall.

we'll have to see if the lower seed playoff contenders start to bail. i can't see that happening. memphis is due for a rebuild. they gave gasol and conley more than enough time. a better example of what you're saying would be observing what fringe playoff teams do in april.

Yeah, I think lower seeded (7/8) playoff teams "tanking" later on in the season to have a chance at a top 4 pick is way less problematic than the outright race to the bottom from the get-go of the season that we have been seeing.

I think Memphis is due for a fire sale but even then, they are in a position to not have to blow the whole thing up and still acquire another top pick. Teams like the Pistons who are paying a lot of money to Griffin, Drummond and Jackson could have a chance to add a top pick , again without having to blow the whole thing up. Same could be said for Washington.

I'd rather see teams take their foot off the gas than not put gas in the car at all. While I dont necessarily think this deincentives tanking, I think it incentivizes the worse teams putting a better product on the floor as there is now less of a punishment for winning games as a bad team.

[Dantares]

I really hope the suns get lonzo ball so they win a few more games and we don't have to worry about them.

[cuyankees]

TBD, we've yet to see this actual lottery play out. Could see one or more surprises. If fringe lotto teams are consistently getting top 4 picks then there would be a ton less incentive to actually hit the bottom like teams have been doing. I think a whole new element of randomness has been added but we won't know until we see it play out for the first time and beyond.

Regardless of how it plays out, you’re staring @ better odds as a fringe lotto team and since mathematicians have taken over in FOs, you’d be hard pressed to keep the foot on the gas and you’ll see more instances of MEM, who I imagine said “well, let’s roll the dice and see what we get in the lotto bc it’s much better odds that we don’t convey our pick.

It’s the 1st year of new odds, but long term can’t see how the new odds dont’ incentive fringe playoff teams throwing the towel and snowballing teams tanking their ways into the lotto vs getting into the playoffs especially in years where the draft is loaded.

Take this past draft, if we had the new odds for last year, pretty confident saying we would’ve seen historical blatant tanking among the league especially for fringe playoff teams.

plus 1 for your point of time will tell.

i completely get it. what makes more sense to my FO? 8th seed in the east or 9th seed where 4 teams get picked? depending on how my team is constructed, that lottery might seem more helpful than a playoff series.

but, you're still not really a tanking team if you're sniffing the playoffs. you benefit from something i think still deincentivizes tanking overall.

we'll have to see if the lower seed playoff contenders start to bail. i can't see that happening. memphis is due for a rebuild. they gave gasol and conley more than enough time. a better example of what you're saying would be observing what fringe playoff teams do in april.

Confident to say, we're seeing many teams throw up white flag, playoffs currently or slightly outside, to tank into the lotto. Silver screwed the pooch

[Besart19]

5th is still better than the 8th pick

[Dantares]

Great day. Suns upgraded at pg and the bulls got otto.

[Fat]

“Great tank battle” will end in disappointment even if we finish with the worst record

[blumatic]

Not liking the simulation lottery in tankathon. Knicks rarely get the #1 pick in all the simulations I've done. We need to win few games.

[B8RcDeMktfxC]

Not liking the simulation lottery in tankathon. Knicks rarely get the #1 pick in all the simulations I've done. We need to win few games.

you just need to run the simulation more times - then the Knicks win more



probability. how does it work?

[xNewYorkMadex]

Not liking the simulation lottery in tankathon. Knicks rarely get the #1 pick in all the simulations I've done. We need to win few games.

I’ve been saying tanking doesn’t really much this year.

That 14% isn’t much of a difference from even the team who finishes with the 6th worst record. The lottery is going to be incredibly unpredictable.

[B8RcDeMktfxC]

TBD, we've yet to see this actual lottery play out. Could see one or more surprises. If fringe lotto teams are consistently getting top 4 picks then there would be a ton less incentive to actually hit the bottom like teams have been doing. I think a whole new element of randomness has been added but we won't know until we see it play out for the first time and beyond.

Regardless of how it plays out, you’re staring @ better odds as a fringe lotto team and since mathematicians have taken over in FOs, you’d be hard pressed to keep the foot on the gas and you’ll see more instances of MEM, who I imagine said “well, let’s roll the dice and see what we get in the lotto bc it’s much better odds that we don’t convey our pick.

It’s the 1st year of new odds, but long term can’t see how the new odds dont’ incentive fringe playoff teams throwing the towel and snowballing teams tanking their ways into the lotto vs getting into the playoffs especially in years where the draft is loaded.

Take this past draft, if we had the new odds for last year, pretty confident saying we would’ve seen historical blatant tanking among the league especially for fringe playoff teams.

This post really deserves reiterating.

[Jeff Van Gully]

Regardless of how it plays out, you’re staring @ better odds as a fringe lotto team and since mathematicians have taken over in FOs, you’d be hard pressed to keep the foot on the gas and you’ll see more instances of MEM, who I imagine said “well, let’s roll the dice and see what we get in the lotto bc it’s much better odds that we don’t convey our pick.

It’s the 1st year of new odds, but long term can’t see how the new odds dont’ incentive fringe playoff teams throwing the towel and snowballing teams tanking their ways into the lotto vs getting into the playoffs especially in years where the draft is loaded.

Take this past draft, if we had the new odds for last year, pretty confident saying we would’ve seen historical blatant tanking among the league especially for fringe playoff teams.

plus 1 for your point of time will tell.

i completely get it. what makes more sense to my FO? 8th seed in the east or 9th seed where 4 teams get picked? depending on how my team is constructed, that lottery might seem more helpful than a playoff series.

but, you're still not really a tanking team if you're sniffing the playoffs. you benefit from something i think still deincentivizes tanking overall.

we'll have to see if the lower seed playoff contenders start to bail. i can't see that happening. memphis is due for a rebuild. they gave gasol and conley more than enough time. a better example of what you're saying would be observing what fringe playoff teams do in april.

Confident to say, we're seeing many teams throw up white flag, playoffs currently or slightly outside, to tank into the lotto. Silver screwed the pooch

who?

[21 Hussle]

From a pure business standpoint it makes sense for the Knicks to land #1. Silver needs to bless fr fr

[GEOLINK]

The fact that they do the actual lotto behind close doors with no cameras and no access to the outside world only means that the owners have a bidding war over who gets the #1 draft pick.

Stay woke y’all.