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j4remi wrote:So Alexander Gustafsson retired after losing to Anthony Smith. Smith's now beaten Oezdemir and Gus while going 5 rounds with Jon Jones and I still don't find him impressive beyond having a lot of heart and toughness. I think his run is more an indictment on the division than the opposite. Hopefully he gets one of Reyes or Walker (the real prospects in the division) next. He knows how to survive an early rush and take advantage when opponents start to slow down. But really the loss here is Gus. He gave Jones the closest fight of his career (many people give it to Gus) and he's been at the top for a long time but just below the elites. He fought DC in a war too and only Rumble really blew past him at his prime. But he's been plagued by injuries, couldn't get over the hump to win a belt and hasn't looked the same in his more recent efforts. It'd be interesting to see how this dude coulda gone if his health didn't become so problematic.

Other than that, Jimi Manuwa looks done unfortunately. He was another exciting striker but the dropoff was fast and harsh with some ugly KO's. Latifi/Oezdemir didn't happen which leaves an open door for Reyes or Walker to win a fight and skip the line to a title shot. Makwan Amirkhani still looks like a good prospect and don't sleep on Leo Santos who starched a very talented Stevie Ray.

This weekend is UFC 238 which is flames from top to bottom. Cowboy vs Ferguson is the most hype for me but Moraes vs Cejudo is a bugged out style clash, Valentina is defending her belt and Petr Yan faces his biggest test by a long shot with Jimmie Rivera who needs a good performance to remind people he's legit (two higher ranked fighters are on the prelim which I could go in about too). The prelim is fire and the early prelims have good fights too. I'll hit some preview work if time permits too.

HarthorneWingo wrote:On Gus, here's my pop-psychology theory on both his loss and retirement. I feel like he knew he was going to retire before that fight because of the how the LHW division is stocked. There's nowhere for him to go. Jone? No. Oezdemir? No. DC? No. Everyone else is comprised of all these fighters moving up in weight. Those guys don't do anything for Gus's legacy or Jones's for that matter. Assuming Jon beats Santos, who's next? Rockhold? Please spare us. Time for Jon to move up to HW. Period.

j4remi wrote:

HarthorneWingo wrote:On Gus, here's my pop-psychology theory on both his loss and retirement. I feel like he knew he was going to retire before that fight because of the how the LHW division is stocked. There's nowhere for him to go. Jone? No. Oezdemir? No. DC? No. Everyone else is comprised of all these fighters moving up in weight. Those guys don't do anything for Gus's legacy or Jones's for that matter. Assuming Jon beats Santos, who's next? Rockhold? Please spare us. Time for Jon to move up to HW. Period.

My guess on Gus is that it's a combination of injuries catching up to and slowing him down along with self-doubt after losing his third title fight by a wider margin than either of his first two shots. We both see that something was off for sure though, he just doesn't seem like he has that hunger any more. Doubt can be a career killer in this sport, I think the best example is Ngannou vs Lewis. Compare that performance to his last win before or after that fight (the Stipe loss being the confidence killer) and it's night and day.

For Jones' next opponents; I do think he's trying hard to bait out DC. Rockhold might get the shot off name value too. HW has a couple of interesting fights but it's arguably in worse shape than LHW which is at least finally injecting some new blood. So Jones is in a tough spot. He can lord over LHW or go up to a division where the champ lost to Jones twice already. It's a tough spot.

At HW there's Stipe but he lost to DC; Ngannou and JDS but they've lost to Stipe; and then DC who said he'd only fight Jones again at LHW. At LHW the two guys that might actually deserve a shot with another win or two are Dominick Reyes and Johnny Walker. Reyes has been well rounded and beat Oez, OSP and Cannonier which are all quality wins. Then Walker has Cirkunov, Rountree and Ledet on his record (not as good a three but real talent). Those three fights lasted less than 3 minutes combined! He's completely untested, but in this shallow division then a step up in competition with another clear finish would probably catapault him.

HarthorneWingo wrote:Ha, yeah, he is trying to bait DC but even Jones acknowledged that DC would be crazy to go through any weight cut to LHW when he's kicking ass HW, which is DC's natural weight class.

I forgot to mention Walker and Reyes. Perhaps those two should fight to see who gets to fight the winner of the Jones/Santos fight. I actually am holding out hope that Santos has something about him that makes me think he could pull this off. Thoughts?

j4remi wrote:

HarthorneWingo wrote:Ha, yeah, he is trying to bait DC but even Jones acknowledged that DC would be crazy to go through any weight cut to LHW when he's kicking ass HW, which is DC's natural weight class.

I forgot to mention Walker and Reyes. Perhaps those two should fight to see who gets to fight the winner of the Jones/Santos fight. I actually am holding out hope that Santos has something about him that makes me think he could pull this off. Thoughts?

I'm a Santos stan, but I only see a puncher's chance for him. The good news is that he's very unlikely to shell up and go into protect mode for 25 minutes like Smith did. He's aggressive as all hell and a lot more likely to go out on his shield. Jones usually takes a bit to feel out his opponents, but Santos is more liable to press early and quickly. So it's possible that he can hurt Jones early and change and the complexion of the fight...but really unlikely. Jones is just too damned good technically. The interesting skill that I'm curious about is Santos' body kicks. They can cover distance and hit hard and fast, so while Jones is feeling out the distance those kicks are where Thiago can maybe put money in the bank to open up a headshot. The only other bit of optimism for me is that Smith has gone up and beaten quality LHW's like Oezdemir and Gus. Santos has moved up and KO'ed everyone he's face. At 185 Santos also KO'ed the hell outta Smith. MMA math never works that simply but if the 205'ers have been even worse than imagined than Santos could be underestimated relative to previous opponents of Jones.

GEOLINK wrote:How funny would it be for Cowboy to beat Tony and completely throw a wrench into things.

GEOLINK wrote:How funny would it be for Cowboy to beat Tony and completely throw a wrench into things.

j4remi wrote:

GEOLINK wrote:How funny would it be for Cowboy to beat Tony and completely throw a wrench into things.

I honestly think Cowboy's style is the worst match-up for Ferguson if Cowboy can avoid the typical slow start issue. Ferguson is hittable and Cowboy is really comfortable on the ground (not enough for me to put him level with a tenth planet ace but enough that if Tony's hurt then his usual rolling to safety won't work as easily). That said, Cowboy takes a while to warm up and can get flustered so Ferguson's pressure and angles could be enough to hold momentum. I'm really having a hard time calling this fight. Leaning toward Ferguson but not by a lot.

HarthorneWingo wrote:

j4remi wrote:

GEOLINK wrote:How funny would it be for Cowboy to beat Tony and completely throw a wrench into things.

I honestly think Cowboy's style is the worst match-up for Ferguson if Cowboy can avoid the typical slow start issue. Ferguson is hittable and Cowboy is really comfortable on the ground (not enough for me to put him level with a tenth planet ace but enough that if Tony's hurt then his usual rolling to safety won't work as easily). That said, Cowboy takes a while to warm up and can get flustered so Ferguson's pressure and angles could be enough to hold momentum. I'm really having a hard time calling this fight. Leaning toward Ferguson but not by a lot.

I think Tony mauls Cowboy. But Cowboy surprises me every time I count him out.

waya wrote:

HarthorneWingo wrote:

j4remi wrote:
I honestly think Cowboy's style is the worst match-up for Ferguson if Cowboy can avoid the typical slow start issue. Ferguson is hittable and Cowboy is really comfortable on the ground (not enough for me to put him level with a tenth planet ace but enough that if Tony's hurt then his usual rolling to safety won't work as easily). That said, Cowboy takes a while to warm up and can get flustered so Ferguson's pressure and angles could be enough to hold momentum. I'm really having a hard time calling this fight. Leaning toward Ferguson but not by a lot.

I think Tony mauls Cowboy. But Cowboy surprises me every time I count him out.

Seems like Tony has to get his ass kicked a bit before coming back and winning fights. Gotta imagine things won't go his way eventually fighting like that

ADeP7 wrote:Cejudo is so damn good

HarthorneWingo wrote:Ferguson vs. Khabib for the belt, right?

waya wrote:

HarthorneWingo wrote:Ferguson vs. Khabib for the belt, right?

They have to at least try to set it up. But I'll be eagerly anticipating which one breaks the tie for pullouts in that matchup. They're tied at 2 a piece