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OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin

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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#81 » by tuna108 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:33 am

Clyde_Style wrote:
Fat Kat wrote:
tuna108 wrote:Great interview. Bannon though disliked by most is very knowledgeable and outspoken about the Hong Kong issue


Probably because he’s a homophobic, misogynistic racist. So f*ck him and anyone taking the time to praise him.

Carry on


Amen

Anyone can take the time to research both Bannon's philosophies and his modus operandi.

Do that and you'll understand his core beliefs revolve around the destruction of constitutional democracies here and abroad.

He is a complete and utter POS
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#82 » by matchman » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:04 am

Lol when I first hear Bannon mentioning Bernie Sanders, Rubio and more in that interview, I was like "what?"

But if the common value between far left and far right in USA are united against CCP, I cannot be more pleased than that because that may mean the 2020 US presidency election won't steer the ship.
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#83 » by stopstandthere » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:13 am

Lam Cheng continues to deny setting up the Independence Committee and keeping reject the 5 demands from the public.

As always, she is like adding oil on the fire, instead of putting out the fire. :nonono:
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#84 » by tuna108 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:00 am

stopstandthere wrote:Lam Cheng continues to deny setting up the Independence Committee and keeping reject the 5 demands from the public.

As always, she is like adding oil on the fire, instead of putting out the fire. :nonono:
She can very easily put an end to the protests by officially withdrawing the bill and ordering an independent inquiry into police violence. Then begin to address the underlying social issues that are causing ordinary people to hit the streets.

Doing this would satisfy 90% of the protestors and the marches protests would slow down and eventually end.

Guess the government does not want to come across as weak and be seen as bending to the protesters lest the protesters start asking for more.

Real amateur hour Carrie.
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#85 » by stopstandthere » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:58 am

tuna108 wrote:
stopstandthere wrote:Lam Cheng continues to deny setting up the Independence Committee and keeping reject the 5 demands from the public.

As always, she is like adding oil on the fire, instead of putting out the fire. :nonono:
She can very easily put an end to the protests by officially withdrawing the bill and ordering an independent inquiry into police violence. Then begin to address the underlying social issues that are causing ordinary people to hit the streets.

Doing this would satisfy 90% of the protestors and the marches protests would slow down and eventually end.

Guess the government does not want to come across as weak and be seen as bending to the protesters lest the protesters start asking for more.

Real amateur hour Carrie.


Agreed. That is just common sense. I really don't know why it is so hard for the gov to make this move. The gov now just separate themselves against the people. Every time Lam Cheng come out to answer reporters' question, she is just bull ****. HK police also suck, needless to say.

Well, their reasons for not doing so is that if gov satisfies the demands, there will be more demands, endlessly. As you said, asking for more.

So now HK people gets use to tear gas in every weekend night.
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#86 » by tuna108 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:14 pm

stopstandthere wrote:
tuna108 wrote:
stopstandthere wrote:Lam Cheng continues to deny setting up the Independence Committee and keeping reject the 5 demands from the public.

As always, she is like adding oil on the fire, instead of putting out the fire. :nonono:
She can very easily put an end to the protests by officially withdrawing the bill and ordering an independent inquiry into police violence. Then begin to address the underlying social issues that are causing ordinary people to hit the streets.

Doing this would satisfy 90% of the protestors and the marches protests would slow down and eventually end.

Guess the government does not want to come across as weak and be seen as bending to the protesters lest the protesters start asking for more.

Real amateur hour Carrie.


Agreed. That is just common sense. I really don't know why it is so hard for the gov to make this move. The gov now just separate themselves against the people. Every time Lam Cheng come out to answer reporters' question, she is just bull ****. HK police also suck, needless to say.

Well, their reasons for not doing so is that if gov satisfies the demands, there will be more demands, endlessly. As you said, asking for more.

So now HK people gets use to tear gas in every weekend night.
very sad...hoping for a peaceful and favourable solution for the people.
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#87 » by Clyde_Style » Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:53 pm

matchman wrote:Lol when I first hear Bannon mentioning Bernie Sanders, Rubio and more in that interview, I was like "what?"

But if the common value between far left and far right in USA are united against CCP, I cannot be more pleased than that because that may mean the 2020 US presidency election won't steer the ship.


I'm not sure why you think unity vs. China will steer this country when it is very clear the trade war is killing the stock market and has sent the global economy into a downturn.

People always vote with their pocketbooks. The current calculations have the average consumer losing $500-1,000 a year on the shopping bills due to the tarriffs. Add in that most didn't benefit from the tax cuts for the rich and then add in how many businesses are losing money due to these policies and you're looking at a rebellion against the current policies, not unity.

Just look at this article published today and please tell me how American farmers are prospering from all of this.

Farmers’ Frustration With Trump Grows as U.S. Escalates China Fight

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/27/us/politics/trump-farmers-china-trade.html

Partial quote:

Spoiler:
Peppered with complaints from farmers fed up with President Trump’s trade war, Sonny Perdue found his patience wearing thin. Mr. Perdue, the agriculture secretary and the guest of honor at the annual Farmfest gathering in southern Minnesota this month, tried to break the ice with a joke.

“What do you call two farmers in a basement?” Mr. Perdue asked near the end of a testy hourlong town-hall-style event. “A whine cellar.”

A cascade of boos ricocheted around the room.

American farmers have become collateral damage in a trade war that Mr. Trump began to help manufacturers and other companies that he believes have been hurt by China’s “unfair” trade practices.

More than a year into the trade dispute, sales of American soybeans, pork, wheat and other agricultural products to China have dried up as Beijing retaliates against Mr. Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports. Lucrative contracts that farmers long relied on for a significant source of income have evaporated, with Chinese buyers looking to other nations like Brazil and Canada to get the commodities they need. Farm bankruptcy filings in the year through June were up 13 percent from 2018 and loan delinquency rates are on the rise, according to the American Farm Bureau.


And if you read further into the article, you'll discover that our Secretary of Agriculture, Sonny Perdue, wants to shrink the government and he is a climate change skeptic. And this is the guy you have running the Dept. of Agriculture? Are you fuqqing kidding me? You think American farmers are climate change skeptics? Hell no. This is madness
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#88 » by matchman » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:01 pm

Clyde_Style wrote:
matchman wrote:Lol when I first hear Bannon mentioning Bernie Sanders, Rubio and more in that interview, I was like "what?"

But if the common value between far left and far right in USA are united against CCP, I cannot be more pleased than that because that may mean the 2020 US presidency election won't steer the ship.


I'm not sure why you think unity vs. China will steer this country when it is very clear the trade war is killing the stock market and has sent the global economy into a downturn.

People always vote with their pocketbooks. The current calculations have the average consumer losing $500-1,000 a year on the shopping bills due to the tarriffs. Add in that most didn't benefit from the tax cuts for the rich and then add in how many businesses are losing money due to these policies and you're looking at a rebellion against the current policies, not unity.

Just look at this article published today and please tell me how American farmers are prospering from all of this.

Farmers’ Frustration With Trump Grows as U.S. Escalates China Fight

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/27/us/politics/trump-farmers-china-trade.html

Partial quote:

Spoiler:
Peppered with complaints from farmers fed up with President Trump’s trade war, Sonny Perdue found his patience wearing thin. Mr. Perdue, the agriculture secretary and the guest of honor at the annual Farmfest gathering in southern Minnesota this month, tried to break the ice with a joke.

“What do you call two farmers in a basement?” Mr. Perdue asked near the end of a testy hourlong town-hall-style event. “A whine cellar.”

A cascade of boos ricocheted around the room.

American farmers have become collateral damage in a trade war that Mr. Trump began to help manufacturers and other companies that he believes have been hurt by China’s “unfair” trade practices.

More than a year into the trade dispute, sales of American soybeans, pork, wheat and other agricultural products to China have dried up as Beijing retaliates against Mr. Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports. Lucrative contracts that farmers long relied on for a significant source of income have evaporated, with Chinese buyers looking to other nations like Brazil and Canada to get the commodities they need. Farm bankruptcy filings in the year through June were up 13 percent from 2018 and loan delinquency rates are on the rise, according to the American Farm Bureau.


And if you read further into the article, you'll discover that our Secretary of Agriculture, Sonny Perdue, wants to shrink the government and he is a climate change skeptic. And this is the guy you have running the Dept. of Agriculture? Are you fuqqing kidding me? You think American farmers are climate change skeptics? Hell no. This is madness


Your case is valid and indeed China is helping USA in two ways:

1) As an importer of American agricultural goods, e.g. soy bean, corns, beef etc.
2) As an exporter for all those "made in China" things, from plastic households to PC to smartphones etc.

For point #1, I am unsure where to fill out the gap, and we are talking more than a billion people to feed. I am in nowhere or any knowledge to comment. Does India need some?

For point #2, that is the spotlight of the current trade war, investors from all over the world have 2 findings from "made in China", firstly if you let them assembly some high end technical stuff, namely network switch, fine machinery etc. There is a high risk of intellectual property being stolen during the cause, which you can see the rise of Huawei as an example. All those Cisco IOS, Nortel stuff are all being adopted and copied without paying any license, which is a huge loss to US despite the minimal savings on cost.

Secondly for less technical stuff like garments, merchandise etc. Made in China is no longer the definition of cheap, as to the rise of salary of workers and greater enforcement of environmental laws (although most are executed in a selective basis), those factories are being shifted to south east Asia, South Asia and Turkey, Africa etc.

In a broader sense this may have multiple possible endings.

1) PRC encounters a meltdown like 80s Japan, GDP depended on property market and in a lesser degree, remaining secondary industry. When US play the dollar hand, RMB devalues like Yen and lose in a currency war, and takes decades to recover, while CCP may face a huge pressure from their knowledgeable people, as they fail to fulfill the trade-off of "RMB in the sacrifice of freedom".

2) Before having the meltdown of scenario 1, PRC starts a war somewhere to boost the GDP or shift the focus from their people. This may be a "alive or dead" gamble to CCP regime if being handled badly.

3) US and PRC comes up with a deal, and goes back to pre-Trump status despite all the damage done. PRC goes on their 1984 plan against their own people, then become the "new USSR".
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#89 » by matchman » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:08 pm

tuna108 wrote:
stopstandthere wrote:
tuna108 wrote:She can very easily put an end to the protests by officially withdrawing the bill and ordering an independent inquiry into police violence. Then begin to address the underlying social issues that are causing ordinary people to hit the streets.

Doing this would satisfy 90% of the protestors and the marches protests would slow down and eventually end.

Guess the government does not want to come across as weak and be seen as bending to the protesters lest the protesters start asking for more.

Real amateur hour Carrie.


Agreed. That is just common sense. I really don't know why it is so hard for the gov to make this move. The gov now just separate themselves against the people. Every time Lam Cheng come out to answer reporters' question, she is just bull ****. HK police also suck, needless to say.

Well, their reasons for not doing so is that if gov satisfies the demands, there will be more demands, endlessly. As you said, asking for more.

So now HK people gets use to tear gas in every weekend night.
very sad...hoping for a peaceful and favourable solution for the people.





"She further stated that it was not a question of not responding to the five demands but it was more of a question of acceding to the demands. "

--Hong Kong Chief Executive said today.

Is this a way to calm down protesters, or just pouring gasoline on the fire? :nonono:
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#90 » by Clyde_Style » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:28 pm

matchman wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:
matchman wrote:Lol when I first hear Bannon mentioning Bernie Sanders, Rubio and more in that interview, I was like "what?"

But if the common value between far left and far right in USA are united against CCP, I cannot be more pleased than that because that may mean the 2020 US presidency election won't steer the ship.


I'm not sure why you think unity vs. China will steer this country when it is very clear the trade war is killing the stock market and has sent the global economy into a downturn.

People always vote with their pocketbooks. The current calculations have the average consumer losing $500-1,000 a year on the shopping bills due to the tarriffs. Add in that most didn't benefit from the tax cuts for the rich and then add in how many businesses are losing money due to these policies and you're looking at a rebellion against the current policies, not unity.

Just look at this article published today and please tell me how American farmers are prospering from all of this.

Farmers’ Frustration With Trump Grows as U.S. Escalates China Fight

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/27/us/politics/trump-farmers-china-trade.html

Partial quote:

Spoiler:
Peppered with complaints from farmers fed up with President Trump’s trade war, Sonny Perdue found his patience wearing thin. Mr. Perdue, the agriculture secretary and the guest of honor at the annual Farmfest gathering in southern Minnesota this month, tried to break the ice with a joke.

“What do you call two farmers in a basement?” Mr. Perdue asked near the end of a testy hourlong town-hall-style event. “A whine cellar.”

A cascade of boos ricocheted around the room.

American farmers have become collateral damage in a trade war that Mr. Trump began to help manufacturers and other companies that he believes have been hurt by China’s “unfair” trade practices.

More than a year into the trade dispute, sales of American soybeans, pork, wheat and other agricultural products to China have dried up as Beijing retaliates against Mr. Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports. Lucrative contracts that farmers long relied on for a significant source of income have evaporated, with Chinese buyers looking to other nations like Brazil and Canada to get the commodities they need. Farm bankruptcy filings in the year through June were up 13 percent from 2018 and loan delinquency rates are on the rise, according to the American Farm Bureau.


And if you read further into the article, you'll discover that our Secretary of Agriculture, Sonny Perdue, wants to shrink the government and he is a climate change skeptic. And this is the guy you have running the Dept. of Agriculture? Are you fuqqing kidding me? You think American farmers are climate change skeptics? Hell no. This is madness


Your case is valid and indeed China is helping USA in two ways:

1) As an importer of American agricultural goods, e.g. soy bean, corns, beef etc.
2) As an exporter for all those "made in China" things, from plastic households to PC to smartphones etc.

For point #1, I am unsure where to fill out the gap, and we are talking more than a billion people to feed. I am in nowhere or any knowledge to comment. Does India need some?

For point #2, that is the spotlight of the current trade war, investors from all over the world have 2 findings from "made in China", firstly if you let them assembly some high end technical stuff, namely network switch, fine machinery etc. There is a high risk of intellectual property being stolen during the cause, which you can see the rise of Huawei as an example. All those Cisco IOS, Nortel stuff are all being adopted and copied without paying any license, which is a huge loss to US despite the minimal savings on cost.

Secondly for less technical stuff like garments, merchandise etc. Made in China is no longer the definition of cheap, as to the rise of salary of workers and greater enforcement of environmental laws (although most are executed in a selective basis), those factories are being shifted to south east Asia, South Asia and Turkey, Africa etc.

In a broader sense this may have multiple possible endings.

1) PRC encounters a meltdown like 80s Japan, GDP depended on property market and in a lesser degree, remaining secondary industry. When US play the dollar hand, RMB devalues like Yen and lose in a currency war, and takes decades to recover, while CCP may face a huge pressure from their knowledgeable people, as they fail to fulfill the trade-off of "RMB in the sacrifice of freedom".

2) Before having the meltdown of scenario 1, PRC starts a war somewhere to boost the GDP or shift the focus from their people. This may be a "alive or dead" gamble to CCP regime if being handled badly.

3) US and PRC comes up with a deal, and goes back to pre-Trump status despite all the damage done. PRC goes on their 1984 plan against their own people, then become the "new USSR".


India is already experiencing massive water shortages in many parts of that country. Their future may include some kinds of famine for large parts of the population if they are not careful. I've been there. Their infrastructure is horrific, the pollution is unreal and their government right now seems more focused on pushing their Hindu identity politics than mastering the complexities of keeping their huge country and population functioning.

Manufacturing will shift to countries like Viet Nam so, yes, China is not the only option. However, when multi-nationals invest billions in doing business in one country and you pull the rug out from under them, trust me, they will throw their weight around.

Trump is done. He will not be re-elected for these reasons plus by this time next year the economic pressures he's inducing will weight heavily on the voting public as well. But mostly, the money bags have had enough of his unhinged BS.

The IP issues are real, have been for a long time. But if people think China will be brought to its knees by trade barriers and blocking Huawei they're mistaken.

The primary reason you won't beat China like this is they are patient and they are strategists. They will just wait until the next administration comes aboard. NATO nations have the same attitude at this point. None of them want to even deal with Trump so basically we're in a stalling pattern while watching this mentally ill guy pretend he has a clue. In the meantime, he could tank the world economy, but in general the other powers of the world are crossing their fingers we survive the next 18 months until they have actual adults to conduct business with.

I don't think Trump is able to help Hong Kong at all, because it is very clear he is weak (he's all bluster as usual). If China does take the unlikely step of invading HK with PRC troops it will be because they are officially done with the USD. But as long as China values their huge stake in US-backed assets, they are less likely to turn HK into rubble as it is still their financial hub to the West and that is very valuable to them. I suspect they will stand their ground and hope HK's citizens lose the energy the protest, but we could see a stalemate for much longer than I suspect many believe.
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#91 » by matchman » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:56 am

Clyde_Style wrote:
India is already experiencing massive water shortages in many parts of that country. Their future may include some kinds of famine for large parts of the population if they are not careful. I've been there. Their infrastructure is horrific, the pollution is unreal and their government right now seems more focused on pushing their Hindu identity politics than mastering the complexities of keeping their huge country and population functioning.

Manufacturing will shift to countries like Viet Nam so, yes, China is not the only option. However, when multi-nationals invest billions in doing business in one country and you pull the rug out from under them, trust me, they will throw their weight around.

Trump is done. He will not be re-elected for these reasons plus by this time next year the economic pressures he's inducing will weight heavily on the voting public as well. But mostly, the money bags have had enough of his unhinged BS.

The IP issues are real, have been for a long time. But if people think China will be brought to its knees by trade barriers and blocking Huawei they're mistaken.

The primary reason you won't beat China like this is they are patient and they are strategists. They will just wait until the next administration comes aboard. NATO nations have the same attitude at this point. None of them want to even deal with Trump so basically we're in a stalling pattern while watching this mentally ill guy pretend he has a clue. In the meantime, he could tank the world economy, but in general the other powers of the world are crossing their fingers we survive the next 18 months until they have actual adults to conduct business with.

I don't think Trump is able to help Hong Kong at all, because it is very clear he is weak (he's all bluster as usual). If China does take the unlikely step of invading HK with PRC troops it will be because they are officially done with the USD. But as long as China values their huge stake in US-backed assets, they are less likely to turn HK into rubble as it is still their financial hub to the West and that is very valuable to them. I suspect they will stand their ground and hope HK's citizens lose the energy the protest, but we could see a stalemate for much longer than I suspect many believe.


For US presidency election estimation I can't say much at the moment, as many will depend on what happens in the coming months. I still think there could be turning points, black swans and so on, and a lot will depend on who the Democrat candidate is. IF it is Joe Biden then Trump may still have a chance lol. For Republicans they may try to ride on the tide of Trump (if there is still any), and the vice president could jump in within the course of 4 years if Donald somehow wins again. And Trump is now in his 70s, can his health be a turning point as well? Lots of questions regarding this.

Hong Kong's destiny is still unsure, although she successfully get the global spotlight, it still highly depends on how CCP thinks of their future. Should they be another USSR and start another cold war, closing the borders, but is it still possible in 21st century? Or they join all the WTO rules, and playing capitalist game in a more proper way, with healthy competitions? Or keep treating all other countries as fools, and only obey the rules that can benefit to their own pockets?

But one thing we do need to care is the status of those corrupted officials' family. If USD is surrendered by their side, all their RMB assets could become worthless over night. But if they want to keep USD flowing between Chinese borders, CCP (high officials) needs Hong Kong more than Hong Konger themselves. But a damaged Hong Kong system can no longer lure USD, so there will be a hard choice for CCP to make and this will lead to another wave of power struggle in Beijing.
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#92 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:43 am

matchman wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:
India is already experiencing massive water shortages in many parts of that country. Their future may include some kinds of famine for large parts of the population if they are not careful. I've been there. Their infrastructure is horrific, the pollution is unreal and their government right now seems more focused on pushing their Hindu identity politics than mastering the complexities of keeping their huge country and population functioning.

Manufacturing will shift to countries like Viet Nam so, yes, China is not the only option. However, when multi-nationals invest billions in doing business in one country and you pull the rug out from under them, trust me, they will throw their weight around.

Trump is done. He will not be re-elected for these reasons plus by this time next year the economic pressures he's inducing will weight heavily on the voting public as well. But mostly, the money bags have had enough of his unhinged BS.

The IP issues are real, have been for a long time. But if people think China will be brought to its knees by trade barriers and blocking Huawei they're mistaken.

The primary reason you won't beat China like this is they are patient and they are strategists. They will just wait until the next administration comes aboard. NATO nations have the same attitude at this point. None of them want to even deal with Trump so basically we're in a stalling pattern while watching this mentally ill guy pretend he has a clue. In the meantime, he could tank the world economy, but in general the other powers of the world are crossing their fingers we survive the next 18 months until they have actual adults to conduct business with.

I don't think Trump is able to help Hong Kong at all, because it is very clear he is weak (he's all bluster as usual). If China does take the unlikely step of invading HK with PRC troops it will be because they are officially done with the USD. But as long as China values their huge stake in US-backed assets, they are less likely to turn HK into rubble as it is still their financial hub to the West and that is very valuable to them. I suspect they will stand their ground and hope HK's citizens lose the energy the protest, but we could see a stalemate for much longer than I suspect many believe.


For US presidency election estimation I can't say much at the moment, as many will depend on what happens in the coming months. I still think there could be turning points, black swans and so on, and a lot will depend on who the Democrat candidate is. IF it is Joe Biden then Trump may still have a chance lol. For Republicans they may try to ride on the tide of Trump (if there is still any), and the vice president could jump in within the course of 4 years if Donald somehow wins again. And Trump is now in his 70s, can his health be a turning point as well? Lots of questions regarding this.

Hong Kong's destiny is still unsure, although she successfully get the global spotlight, it still highly depends on how CCP thinks of their future. Should they be another USSR and start another cold war, closing the borders, but is it still possible in 21st century? Or they join all the WTO rules, and playing capitalist game in a more proper way, with healthy competitions? Or keep treating all other countries as fools, and only obey the rules that can benefit to their own pockets?

But one thing we do need to care is the status of those corrupted officials' family. If USD is surrendered by their side, all their RMB assets could become worthless over night. But if they want to keep USD flowing between Chinese borders, CCP (high officials) needs Hong Kong more than Hong Konger themselves. But a damaged Hong Kong system can no longer lure USD, so there will be a hard choice for CCP to make and this will lead to another wave of power struggle in Beijing.


I don't know what China will do, but you're right there are no guarantees the current leadership will stay in power. My guess is there will be enough capitalist drive within to push for remaining a part of the world as a trading partner. They've certainly invested heavily in Africa and that may be part of their resource back-up plan, but I see no winners if they decouple and renounce the dollar.

Deutsche Bank just admitted in court they have Trump's tax returns and those of at least one other family member. Now there's a brand new leak (single source so not verified yet) that those loans to Trump were actually co-signed by multiple Russian oligarchs for hundreds of millions. I said this would happen two years ago just like I said the NRA would cease to exist. Now we wait for the courts to rule that DB must release those records to the Democratic committees in Congress. Once that happens, the impeachment process will rev up.

I don't think most people realize how ugly this is going to get and how little support Trump has left in the GOP. Anybody running for reelection will have little to gain by supporting Trump. So let's see what happens when impeachment reaches the Senate in 2020, because by then Trump's toxicity may see him removed before the election (which is really the GOP's only hope for the 2020 ticket now). Trump is clearly insane and he's getting worse daily. In another six months, he'll be flipping people off in the Rose Garden.

Anyway, I got tired of telling people the truth a long time ago. I never thought so many people would live inside a delusional bubble when it is blindingly obvious what kind of hustler they voted for. So I've been waiting patiently. Now it is happening. Russia literally owns Trump. They bought our president a long time ago. It is truly sad that this doesn't alarm this country more. It's on paper and all of us will get to see it for ourselves soon enough. Then we'll find out what percentage of the American population is lost to cultism and which part can actually think for itself.
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#93 » by tuna108 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:32 pm

Clyde_Style wrote:
matchman wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:
India is already experiencing massive water shortages in many parts of that country. Their future may include some kinds of famine for large parts of the population if they are not careful. I've been there. Their infrastructure is horrific, the pollution is unreal and their government right now seems more focused on pushing their Hindu identity politics than mastering the complexities of keeping their huge country and population functioning.

Manufacturing will shift to countries like Viet Nam so, yes, China is not the only option. However, when multi-nationals invest billions in doing business in one country and you pull the rug out from under them, trust me, they will throw their weight around.

Trump is done. He will not be re-elected for these reasons plus by this time next year the economic pressures he's inducing will weight heavily on the voting public as well. But mostly, the money bags have had enough of his unhinged BS.

The IP issues are real, have been for a long time. But if people think China will be brought to its knees by trade barriers and blocking Huawei they're mistaken.

The primary reason you won't beat China like this is they are patient and they are strategists. They will just wait until the next administration comes aboard. NATO nations have the same attitude at this point. None of them want to even deal with Trump so basically we're in a stalling pattern while watching this mentally ill guy pretend he has a clue. In the meantime, he could tank the world economy, but in general the other powers of the world are crossing their fingers we survive the next 18 months until they have actual adults to conduct business with.

I don't think Trump is able to help Hong Kong at all, because it is very clear he is weak (he's all bluster as usual). If China does take the unlikely step of invading HK with PRC troops it will be because they are officially done with the USD. But as long as China values their huge stake in US-backed assets, they are less likely to turn HK into rubble as it is still their financial hub to the West and that is very valuable to them. I suspect they will stand their ground and hope HK's citizens lose the energy the protest, but we could see a stalemate for much longer than I suspect many believe.


For US presidency election estimation I can't say much at the moment, as many will depend on what happens in the coming months. I still think there could be turning points, black swans and so on, and a lot will depend on who the Democrat candidate is. IF it is Joe Biden then Trump may still have a chance lol. For Republicans they may try to ride on the tide of Trump (if there is still any), and the vice president could jump in within the course of 4 years if Donald somehow wins again. And Trump is now in his 70s, can his health be a turning point as well? Lots of questions regarding this.

Hong Kong's destiny is still unsure, although she successfully get the global spotlight, it still highly depends on how CCP thinks of their future. Should they be another USSR and start another cold war, closing the borders, but is it still possible in 21st century? Or they join all the WTO rules, and playing capitalist game in a more proper way, with healthy competitions? Or keep treating all other countries as fools, and only obey the rules that can benefit to their own pockets?

But one thing we do need to care is the status of those corrupted officials' family. If USD is surrendered by their side, all their RMB assets could become worthless over night. But if they want to keep USD flowing between Chinese borders, CCP (high officials) needs Hong Kong more than Hong Konger themselves. But a damaged Hong Kong system can no longer lure USD, so there will be a hard choice for CCP to make and this will lead to another wave of power struggle in Beijing.


I don't know what China will do, but you're right there are no guarantees the current leadership will stay in power. My guess is there will be enough capitalist drive within to push for remaining a part of the world as a trading partner. They've certainly invested heavily in Africa and that may be part of their resource back-up plan, but I see no winners if they decouple and renounce the dollar.

Deutsche Bank just admitted in court they have Trump's tax returns and those of at least one other family member. Now there's a brand new leak (single source so not verified yet) that those loans to Trump were actually co-signed by multiple Russian oligarchs for hundreds of millions. I said this would happen two years ago just like I said the NRA would cease to exist. Now we wait for the courts to rule that DB must release those records to the Democratic committees in Congress. Once that happens, the impeachment process will rev up.

I don't think most people realize how ugly this is going to get and how little support Trump has left in the GOP. Anybody running for reelection will have little to gain by supporting Trump. So let's see what happens when impeachment reaches the Senate in 2020, because by then Trump's toxicity may see him removed before the election (which is really the GOP's only hope for the 2020 ticket now). Trump is clearly insane and he's getting worse daily. In another six months, he'll be flipping people off in the Rose Garden.

Anyway, I got tired of telling people the truth a long time ago. I never thought so many people would live inside a delusional bubble when it is blindingly obvious what kind of hustler they voted for. So I've been waiting patiently. Now it is happening. Russia literally owns Trump. They bought our president a long time ago. It is truly sad that this doesn't alarm this country more. It's on paper and all of us will get to see it for ourselves soon enough. Then we'll find out what percentage of the American population is lost to cultism and which part can actually think for itself.
so is the story about Trump loan consignors true or unverified sensationalism?

Looks like O'Donnell tweeted something to that effect.
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#94 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:42 pm

tuna108 wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:
matchman wrote:
For US presidency election estimation I can't say much at the moment, as many will depend on what happens in the coming months. I still think there could be turning points, black swans and so on, and a lot will depend on who the Democrat candidate is. IF it is Joe Biden then Trump may still have a chance lol. For Republicans they may try to ride on the tide of Trump (if there is still any), and the vice president could jump in within the course of 4 years if Donald somehow wins again. And Trump is now in his 70s, can his health be a turning point as well? Lots of questions regarding this.

Hong Kong's destiny is still unsure, although she successfully get the global spotlight, it still highly depends on how CCP thinks of their future. Should they be another USSR and start another cold war, closing the borders, but is it still possible in 21st century? Or they join all the WTO rules, and playing capitalist game in a more proper way, with healthy competitions? Or keep treating all other countries as fools, and only obey the rules that can benefit to their own pockets?

But one thing we do need to care is the status of those corrupted officials' family. If USD is surrendered by their side, all their RMB assets could become worthless over night. But if they want to keep USD flowing between Chinese borders, CCP (high officials) needs Hong Kong more than Hong Konger themselves. But a damaged Hong Kong system can no longer lure USD, so there will be a hard choice for CCP to make and this will lead to another wave of power struggle in Beijing.


I don't know what China will do, but you're right there are no guarantees the current leadership will stay in power. My guess is there will be enough capitalist drive within to push for remaining a part of the world as a trading partner. They've certainly invested heavily in Africa and that may be part of their resource back-up plan, but I see no winners if they decouple and renounce the dollar.

Deutsche Bank just admitted in court they have Trump's tax returns and those of at least one other family member. Now there's a brand new leak (single source so not verified yet) that those loans to Trump were actually co-signed by multiple Russian oligarchs for hundreds of millions. I said this would happen two years ago just like I said the NRA would cease to exist. Now we wait for the courts to rule that DB must release those records to the Democratic committees in Congress. Once that happens, the impeachment process will rev up.

I don't think most people realize how ugly this is going to get and how little support Trump has left in the GOP. Anybody running for reelection will have little to gain by supporting Trump. So let's see what happens when impeachment reaches the Senate in 2020, because by then Trump's toxicity may see him removed before the election (which is really the GOP's only hope for the 2020 ticket now). Trump is clearly insane and he's getting worse daily. In another six months, he'll be flipping people off in the Rose Garden.

Anyway, I got tired of telling people the truth a long time ago. I never thought so many people would live inside a delusional bubble when it is blindingly obvious what kind of hustler they voted for. So I've been waiting patiently. Now it is happening. Russia literally owns Trump. They bought our president a long time ago. It is truly sad that this doesn't alarm this country more. It's on paper and all of us will get to see it for ourselves soon enough. Then we'll find out what percentage of the American population is lost to cultism and which part can actually think for itself.
so is the story about Trump loan consignors true or unverified sensationalism?

Looks like O'Donnell tweeted something to that effect.


Trump's lawyers threatened MSNBC and leaned on them to get an apology from O'Donnell apparently which he seemed to hedge by saying he didn't clear it with network standards without denying the story. Doesn't really settle anything as to truth as it still appears to be a source close to DB that leaked it to him. What it really highlights is not whether the leak is more or less likely to be true, but that Trump within hours acted to suppress it. It just made it patently clear this story is bad for him not because it is false, but because it getting too close to home. You don't hear about his lawyers leaping into action to suppress press stories like this. That indicates this is close to the paydirt.
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#95 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:57 pm

I would add that the likely outcome if and when verified is something along the lines of DB would issue the loan to Trump, then repackage it as debt for sale which would then be re-purchased by someone like Oleg Deripaska. As it is not like they'd have any other buyers in mind, it would be DB planning it out as the middle man between Trump and Russia.

They (Trump, oligarchs and DB) may have figured this would create a legal separation between Trump and Russian financiers because then technically they are not the guarantors, but debt purchasers. That's why I would not get hung up on the term "co-sign" because that may the inaccurate financial term for loan guarantee in such an instance. It would be more along the lines of transference of liability.

What that would mean however is actually more pernicious, because then Trump could default on the loan and the purchased debt would be eaten by the Russian purchasers. That = FREE MONEY. In other words, if they pulled that off it is the same as giving him hundreds of millions for free as he'd owe the Russians the debt if he defaulted, not the originating bank. So it would be very clever and I expect this is closer to what happened than a straight up co-signature, but the net effect is you just bought yourself an American president.

BUT, either way it was transacted it still means he's bought by a foreign power, plain and simple though apologists would probably still say it doesn't bother them.

If I am correct about the M.O. used to effect these loans that will come out in the documents once DB turns them over at the court's command.

DB clearly has decided to comply once it is decreed instead of siding with Trump so just keep an eye out for the ruling in the next weeks or months.
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#96 » by tuna108 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:50 pm

Clyde_Style wrote:I would add that the likely outcome if and when verified is something along the lines of DB would issue the loan to Trump, then repackage it as debt for sale which would then be re-purchased by someone like Oleg Deripaska. As it is not like they'd have any other buyers in mind, it would be DB planning it out as the middle man between Trump and Russia.

They (Trump, oligarchs and DB) may have figured this would create a legal separation between Trump and Russian financiers because then technically they are not the guarantors, but debt purchasers. That's why I would not get hung up on the term "co-sign" because that may the inaccurate financial term for loan guarantee in such an instance. It would be more along the lines of transference of liability.

What that would mean however is actually more pernicious, because then Trump could default on the loan and the purchased debt would be eaten by the Russian purchasers. That = FREE MONEY. In other words, if they pulled that off it is the same as giving him hundreds of millions for free as he'd owe the Russians the debt if he defaulted, not the originating bank. So it would be very clever and I expect this is closer to what happened than a straight up co-signature, but the net effect is you just bought yourself an American president.

BUT, either way it was transacted it still means he's bought by a foreign power, plain and simple though apologists would probably still say it doesn't bother them.

If I am correct about the M.O. used to effect these loans that will come out in the documents once DB turns them over at the court's command.

DB clearly has decided to comply once it is decreed instead of siding with Trump so just keep an eye out for the ruling in the next weeks or months.
got it. thanks for explaining in such details. makes sense.
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#97 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:59 pm

tuna108 wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:I would add that the likely outcome if and when verified is something along the lines of DB would issue the loan to Trump, then repackage it as debt for sale which would then be re-purchased by someone like Oleg Deripaska. As it is not like they'd have any other buyers in mind, it would be DB planning it out as the middle man between Trump and Russia.

They (Trump, oligarchs and DB) may have figured this would create a legal separation between Trump and Russian financiers because then technically they are not the guarantors, but debt purchasers. That's why I would not get hung up on the term "co-sign" because that may the inaccurate financial term for loan guarantee in such an instance. It would be more along the lines of transference of liability.

What that would mean however is actually more pernicious, because then Trump could default on the loan and the purchased debt would be eaten by the Russian purchasers. That = FREE MONEY. In other words, if they pulled that off it is the same as giving him hundreds of millions for free as he'd owe the Russians the debt if he defaulted, not the originating bank. So it would be very clever and I expect this is closer to what happened than a straight up co-signature, but the net effect is you just bought yourself an American president.

BUT, either way it was transacted it still means he's bought by a foreign power, plain and simple though apologists would probably still say it doesn't bother them.

If I am correct about the M.O. used to effect these loans that will come out in the documents once DB turns them over at the court's command.

DB clearly has decided to comply once it is decreed instead of siding with Trump so just keep an eye out for the ruling in the next weeks or months.
got it. thanks for explaining in such details. makes sense.


You're welcome. I haven't seen this written anywhere yet, but it is what I figured out on my own. IMO, it is the most likely outcome give or take a few wrinkles like perhaps they off-loaded the debt multiple times until the final debt purchase is made. But even those shell corps can be traced if the banks cooperate. It is all a form of money laundering.

In a nutshell, whom Trump is obligated and beholden to is likely to be proven prior to the 2020 election.
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#98 » by aq_ua » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:17 am

Clyde_Style wrote:
tuna108 wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:I would add that the likely outcome if and when verified is something along the lines of DB would issue the loan to Trump, then repackage it as debt for sale which would then be re-purchased by someone like Oleg Deripaska. As it is not like they'd have any other buyers in mind, it would be DB planning it out as the middle man between Trump and Russia.

They (Trump, oligarchs and DB) may have figured this would create a legal separation between Trump and Russian financiers because then technically they are not the guarantors, but debt purchasers. That's why I would not get hung up on the term "co-sign" because that may the inaccurate financial term for loan guarantee in such an instance. It would be more along the lines of transference of liability.

What that would mean however is actually more pernicious, because then Trump could default on the loan and the purchased debt would be eaten by the Russian purchasers. That = FREE MONEY. In other words, if they pulled that off it is the same as giving him hundreds of millions for free as he'd owe the Russians the debt if he defaulted, not the originating bank. So it would be very clever and I expect this is closer to what happened than a straight up co-signature, but the net effect is you just bought yourself an American president.

BUT, either way it was transacted it still means he's bought by a foreign power, plain and simple though apologists would probably still say it doesn't bother them.

If I am correct about the M.O. used to effect these loans that will come out in the documents once DB turns them over at the court's command.

DB clearly has decided to comply once it is decreed instead of siding with Trump so just keep an eye out for the ruling in the next weeks or months.
got it. thanks for explaining in such details. makes sense.


You're welcome. I haven't seen this written anywhere yet, but it is what I figured out on my own. IMO, it is the most likely outcome give or take a few wrinkles like perhaps they off-loaded the debt multiple times until the final debt purchase is made. But even those shell corps can be traced if the banks cooperate. It is all a form of money laundering.

In a nutshell, whom Trump is obligated and beholden to is likely to be proven prior to the 2020 election.

There would be quite a bit of irony if Trump were beholden to Russian creditors after having filed bankruptcy four times.
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Re: OT: Time claims Hong Kong as the new West Berlin 

Post#99 » by Clyde_Style » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:58 am

aq_ua wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:
tuna108 wrote:got it. thanks for explaining in such details. makes sense.


You're welcome. I haven't seen this written anywhere yet, but it is what I figured out on my own. IMO, it is the most likely outcome give or take a few wrinkles like perhaps they off-loaded the debt multiple times until the final debt purchase is made. But even those shell corps can be traced if the banks cooperate. It is all a form of money laundering.

In a nutshell, whom Trump is obligated and beholden to is likely to be proven prior to the 2020 election.

There would be quite a bit of irony if Trump were beholden to Russian creditors after having filed bankruptcy four times.


I'd be inclined to say it would be Un-Ironic for some basic reasons.

BTW, he has 6 corporate bankruptcies, not 4. Here's a concise summary:

https://www.thoughtco.com/donald-trump-business-bankruptcies-4152019

And one of the simplest ways to understand why he is a chronic loser in business would be to read this piece (it's quite short, just pay particular attention to this paragraph:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/donald-trumps-business-failures-were-very-real

Spoiler:
The tax code is certainly friendly to real-estate developers like Trump. The I.R.S. allows developers and landlords to deduct from their profits and income every year a certain portion of the value of their buildings for “depreciation.” But there are limits to this practice. Owners of residential real estate have to depreciate a building over the course of twenty-seven and a half years, which means that each year they can deduct about 3.6 per cent of its value. For owners of commercial real estate, the depreciation period is thirty-nine years, which means that they can deduct about 2.5 per cent of a building’s worth annually. Say that a property is worth two hundred million dollars. If it’s a residential building, its owner can reduce his or her taxable income by about $7.2 million dollars a year. If it’s a commercial building, the deduction is worth about five million dollars.


The article clearly explains why the myth that Trump could use real estate tax loss carryovers and still be considered to be running a liquid enterprise is false. He has failed to maintain mortgage payments as a rule, not an exception. It is because he has had cash flow negative businesses time and again. This pattern was cemented in the early 90s when he vainly tried to build up a second casino in Atlantic City without making the first one successful. He had no cost controls. He just figured out how to make others eat his losses without having to declare personal bankruptcy. And the end result is many of his equity possessions were repossessed.

So this is where it becomes Un-ironic instead of ironic if Russia starting being his de facto credit line. When these failures started to burn the banks that backed him, Trump was blacklisted by American banks and eventually most banks worldwide. He played the too large to fail ruse on domestic banks one time too many and if he was going to stay afloat he had to find money from somewhere.

So why would Russian money flow to him pre-presidency? Because he was a willing seller of condos to shell corporations which allowed off-shore money to launder itself in the form of a convertible American-based real estate asset. Many condos were bought for cash and then flipped for double, sometimes in the space of one month. And Putin and his oligarch had a big need to spread their wealth to Western accounts and Trump became their go-to guy for RE transactions.

The side hustle in all of this was the long game politically because Trump flirted with the idea of running for President for over two decades. Countries like Russia, Israel and China will invest in people like that if they think it may pay them back later. Keep in mind, Putin is rumored to be the richest man on the planet with hundreds of billions of wealth extracted from Russia and seeded around the world in who knows how many asset classes. Spending a few billion on Trump is not even even 1% of Putin's net worth so it would be easy to do financially.

Long story short, it was beneficial to Russian interests in the short-term and the long-term and not ironic because American lenders had shut out Trump a very long time ago.

And it is not just the Russians. It is clear that the Saudis and the UAE have given money to the Trumps and Kushner. But Deutsche Bank was the middle man for Russia and that's what is on deck in the courts now. The pay for play deals with the Arab countries may never come to light (though George Nader, another pedophile, who has dirt on these countries was arrested recently), but even the GOP shut down Trump's attempt to do an end run around Congress and give the Saudis our nuclear technology. It was that blatant and obvious a private deal for nuclear tech.

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