Knicksfan1992 wrote:So, after getting a lot of feedback on my long-form post about the Knicks Offseason Power Forward binge, I decided I wanted to semi-try my hand at this basketball writing thing again. Let me know what you guys think… I got tired towards the end so my attention to detail faded but I hope you like it. WARNING: THIS IS AGAIN A LONG READ. IF YOU DON’T FEEL LIKE READING A WALL OF TEXT THEN DON’T DO IT LOL
One of the underrated questions for the Knicks to solve this year is “What to do with Trier going forward?” Can Trier improve into a starting quality guard? Or maybe even an All-Star? Is he more replaceable than the optimists like me assume? While much has been made about other high profile Knicks prospects such as DSJ, Frank, Mitch, and Knox, Scott Perry will likely be up at night all of June 2020 (and maybe near the trade deadline as the Knicks continually shape the roster) wondering, not about those guys, but more about how much he should commit himself to Trier. All of the other aforementioned Knicks prospects are under cost-controlled deals that will not become questions for the Knicks for a few more seasons.
When you consider the steadfastness, with which the Knicks have tried to keep flexibility in their contract structures as of late, and the already rumored plans to attack 2021 Free Agency, Trier becomes an interesting dilemma within that context probably moreso than any other Knick under 25 years old. Most of the contracts given out this summer, by the Knicks, were given to veterans whom have an established reputation within the league. If other teams want a Marcus Morris, for instance, the Knicks can probably let him go and find another 1 year stop gap to fill the void until 2021 if they are committed on competing around the young core they’ve established. Because the league has the ability to set his value through restricted Free Agency, letting him go to the highest bidder becomes a tougher pill to swallow when there may be some untapped potential left in a player who plays a position that the Knicks have long needed some consistency from. Should Scott Perry let Trier walk in order to keep flexibility? Or should the Knicks put some eggs in the Trier basket and hope that he becomes more than what he is? Let’s examine him to see if we can make the picture clearer…
Early in the ‘18-‘19 season, Trier earned the moniker “Homeless Harden” on this board. While this nickname was given, ironically in nature, it is outright peculiar how similar Trier’s basic statistical profile was to James Harden’s rookie year in OKC. In 22.8 mpg, Trier averaged 10.9 ppg on a 56.4 TS%, a 12.9% AST%, all on a Usage Rate of 21.5%. Harden in 09-10 played 22.9mpg and averaged 9.9 ppg on a 55.1 TS%, a 12.3% AST%, all on a Usage Rate of 20.4%. Perhaps the best basic stat indicator of Trier’s future success and one that is most relevant when comparing to Harden’s stats is Trier’s .431 free throw rate per shot attempt. This is actually higher than Harden’s rookie year rate of .415. If Trier can continue to find his way to the line, it should help him maintain his scoring efficiency while he irons out other kinks in his game that I’ll examine later.
Now there is some context and other differentiators that need to be discussed when comparing Rookie Trier to Rookie Harden. First off, Trier came into the league as a 23 year old while Harden came in as a 20 year old. Physically major shifts can occur from ages 20 to 23 and it leaves a lot less room for growth at the NBA level for Trier as opposed to Harden. Also, Harden was a part of a 50 win Thunder squad that boasted young semi-experienced talents like Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant while Trier’s efforts were part of a hapless 17 win Knicks team that relied heavily on production from Emmanuel Mudiay, 19 year old Kevin Knox and 19 year old Mitchell Robinson. One could make the argument that Harden was held back by the amount of talent on his rookie team and his contributions contributed to winning more so than Trier’s did. However, one can’t help but wonder if Harden’s efficiency would have suffered under the same circumstances Trier had around him in his rookie year? Is it even more impressive that Trier was as efficient as he was given the talent around him? This is a topic about player development that somebody smarter than me could write a book about. For right now, I’ll leave it as just an important talking point and context shaper.
Overall, I think comparing Trier to Harden is obviously unfair and lofty… Harden had an unprecedented growth curve and was eventually traded to an organization that literally developed its whole team building philosophy around him. Trier more than likely will never have that exact situation given to him and honestly, his skill level probably does not warrant that. Nevertheless that does not mean Trier cannot be a stud in his own right.
Another nickname Allonzo owns is “Iso Zo” and this is for good reason… you do not become as efficient as Trier did, on a bad team, without the ability to flat out get buckets. Scoring is by far Trier’s best attribute. Trier has a fantastic herky-jerky handle that he uses to constantly keep defenders off balance in iso situations. He has the ability to blow by guys with some surprising burst out of his dribble. He also has some deceptive leaping ability and body control at the rim to finish which leads to his ability to draw foul calls at his Harden-esque rate. The below gif is a great example of how Trier can attack guys who you think would be quicker than him from a standstill and attack the rim with force.
https://gfycat.com/evilformalblackwidowspiderRozier is no slouch as a man on man defender and Trier blows by him like a revolving door to finish through Baynes for the and 1 opportunity.
Allonzo’s great body control also shows itself on step backs which he regularly made throughout the season. In the below clip Trier is able to stop on a dime and pull back to get the shot over the taller Bogdanovic.
https://gfycat.com/unacceptableblissfulbarnowlWhile almost all of Trier’s made step backs were 2’s, according to NBA.com, it is nice to see just how comfortable he is pulling them off against bigger opponents. An important question will be how many of those can he convert to 3 point makes going forward which may drain his efficiency somewhat in the short term, but will make him harder to guard in the long term if he can pull them off with some regularity. This leads to my next point. We know Trier can score but what exactly else can he do at an NBA level? Well as of now not much exactly but there may be room for optimism…
He isn’t a stout defender and he doesn’t have the greatest length for a wing in today’s game. Sporting only a 6’6.75” wingspan on a 6’5” frame Trier is really relegated to only guarding traditional two guards who are becoming ever so rare in today’s NBA. Size at the wing and point of attack has become ever important to modern defense. Trier probably will never be strong enough to be a great switch guy onto bigger guys and won’t be quick enough to guard the best lead ball handling guards consistently. Combine all of those disadvantages with the fact that he posted low “STOCK” numbers for his position and it’s really hard to see pathway to being more than mediocre on defense.
However there are some underlying positives from his rookie year, defensively, if you look at some underlying lineup data. According to CleaningtheGlass, lineups that featured Trier at his natural position at SG, Dennis Smith at Pg, and Mitchell Robinson at Center (a combination Knicks fans will see a ton in 19-20) defended in the 92nd percentile! It was a small sample size but an encouraging one if you think Trier can have starter upside with the right combination around him. Also if you remove Smith and make the combination just Trier at SG and Mitch at C, the Knicks were mediocre defensively in the 42nd percentile but believe it or not, mediocrity on the defensive end was a step up for this squad. Also, while many are in the camp that Trier is nothing but a microwave scorer off the bench like Lou Williams (although Lou has become so much better as a complete offensive threat as he’s aged). I think it’s important to note that even though Trier is small for a wing, he’s still not so small that he can be easily picked on either like a Trae Young for instance. For guys like that it is important to be hyper elite on offense because they don’t really provide anything on defense. I don’t necessarily think Trier is in that mold. I think there is a room for Trier to not be a complete dynamo offensively, like Harden, but still be good enough to be a starter on a good team. Think of how a guy like Redick transformed himself into a decent defender while being an above average threat offensively and how it changed his reputation. Redick is a good segue to another topic when it comes to Trier’s starter viability which is hid catch and shoot ability.
For Trier to make that “leap” into a guy that can start he needs to be less reliant on having the ball in his hands. One promising part of Trier’s game is his naturally great shooting touch. He started to parlay that into more catch and shoot opportunities as the 18-19 season progressed. According to NBA.com, post all-star break Trier shot a blistering 42.9% on 2.2 C&S 3’s per game. That is still a lower number than where you might want his attempts to be, but it provides incredible upside for Trier if he can learn to let go of the reigns a little bit and be more of an off ball force to round his game out as the Knicks acquire more talent around him. For context, Trier only shot 0.7 C&S 3’s per game pre All-Star Break. This was a massive in season adjustment that could pay dividends down the line. If he can continue to play within himself and settle more on being the off ball guy instead of Iso Zo, then he might actually be able to bank in on starter money rather than being a journeyman 6th man which would be an excellent development for the Knicks. The reason, I think this is imperative is because, currently, Trier is a somewhat limited passer. If we’re going to use the tired Harden comparison, Trier is nowhere near the level of intuitive passing that Harden shows regularly. However, I do think there’s reason to be optimistic.
The below clip is a great example of a flash of instinctual passing that Trier shows from time to time. He immediately spots Robinson rolling to the rim on the weakside and snaps a pass to him without hesitation in the perfect spot. This is the type of passing you see from guys like Harden, CP3, etc. all the time and is necessary if you’re going to be a truly elite offensive player in the NBA.
https://gfycat.com/immaterialperkyaustraliancattledogDo I think Trier will all of a sudden augment his game to be an efficient offensive fulcrum for himself and other like Harden did? Smart money is on No, but I wouldn’t 100% rule it out either….Ok, you can probably like 99% rule it out hahah…. But there is a reason we called him “Homeless Harden” in the beginning of this. He really is uniquely skilled and flashes so many great plays offensively that it’s hard to not be enamored with him on that end
Overall, I think Trier is a good conundrum for the Knicks. Rarely do we have a young player worth arguing about whether we should keep long term or not. Usually we give up on them way too early or some other BS happens before we even get to that stage. If I’m Perry I would think long and hard about it, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that Homeless Harden could become at least “Middle Class Harden on a bargain deal” which would be great for the Knicks going forward in so many ways.
