SA37 wrote:HarthorneWingo wrote:
Thanks for your response. Very helpful. What do you think about the regulation aspect of this? And how will disputes be resolved? In the federal courts?
Well, now you're starting to dig a bit deeper into my ignorance.
If the US can parlay this into continued dominance of the US dollar, it will make moves to do that, including pushing its allies (UK, EU, Australia) to not accept certain forms of payment. The biggest concerns seems to be the US dollar losing its status as the world's reserve currency, which gives it enormous political and financial power over the rest of the world...
While securities trading and other financial transactions may appear instantaneous, many back-end processes still move at a snail’s pace in rigid sequences set decades ago. A mortgage payment isn’t completed when the funds leave the homeowner’s bank account. Those funds have many hands to go through before they come to rest, days or weeks later. Through tokenization, many of these cumbersome and costly processes can be streamlined with better market information, greater certainty and enhanced security.
The potential efficiency improvements to the current system are enormous, including billions of dollars annually in reduced frictions and increased consumer choice. End-to-end tokenization of sovereign currencies, securities, loans, real estate, mortgages, pledges, and related payments and credit is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for both entrepreneurs and nimble incumbents. It is also an existential threat to those who are slow to adapt.
What is government’s role? Regulation is essential to our financial markets, and there is no doubt that tokenized financial assets should be regulated to ensure financial stability, promote capital formation, prevent illicit activity, and protect consumers. But there is more the U.S. government must do. Innovators must have assurances that if they follow time-tested regulatory principles, they will be free to pursue the market opportunities provided by better functionality. The government should actively facilitate the adoption of technology in core U.S. dollar funding and payments markets. This is a matter of national security and financial stability.
The most important financial market in the world, the U.S. Treasury market, is a government market. Virtually all other financial markets, at home and abroad, have some tie to the U.S. Treasury market, including the cash in our wallets and the entries in our bank accounts. A central bank’s digital currency, or “digital dollar” is the tail of the dog. Financial regulators, in tandem with the private sector, should be focusing on the dog.
Dollar primacy and stability are critical to global economic development, financial stability and U.S. national security. In the face of broad technological change, primacy of the U.S. dollar is by no means certain. China views this technological shift as an opportunity not only to achieve operational efficiencies but to extend the reach and influence of yuan-based payments and lending. Chinese authorities are driving digitization and tokenization in their core payment and credit markets, allowing greater government monitoring and control. And there is no doubt Chinese leadership plans to extend similar practices to international trade and finance, expanding their influence over global commerce. The U.S. must recognize the reserve currency race is on, and winning is the only rational objective.
We have a head start in both traditional markets and new tokenized markets. More than 95% of stablecoins by value are based on the U.S. dollar. In other words, at the incipient stages of this global shift in financial technology, dollars—actually U.S. Treasury securities—have remained the preferred liquid store of value for new and traditional markets. But stability and leadership can erode quickly in times of technological change. Another nation seizing control of global credit and payment systems would not only affect our global standing but also could destabilize the global financial system.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-future-depends-on-blockchain-crypto-bitcoin-payments-transfers-federal-reserve-11639668586...and the US's ability to have a continue to be the central hub of globalized finance through their banking sector:
national digital currencies could make it harder for private cryptocurrencies to catch on. Because government e-cash would be operated, backed and controlled directly by central banks, it likely would be viewed as more reliable than privately created cryptocurrencies, which operate on decentralized networks of users and fluctuate wildly in value.
Perhaps most significantly, a world of competing national digital currencies could set up a new kind of currency war. The U.S. dollar has been the world’s dominant currency since the 1920s. But if national digital currencies allow for faster, cheaper money transfers across borders, viable alternatives to the U.S. dollar could emerge, embraced by nations and monetary officials concerned about the dollar’s outsize influence on the global economy.
“Technological developments provide the potential for such a world to emerge,” Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, said in an August speech at the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. He highlighted the risks of the current dollar-dominant system, and sketched out an alternative where a new digital currency backed by a large group of nations, or even multiple currencies, vied with the dollar...
The one that might beat them all to the punch is the People’s Bank of China. The PBOC is expected to launch a digital version of China’s national currency, the yuan, later this year or early in 2020. If it does, it would be the first major global currency to become digitized.
The benefits of digitization could be myriad. In addition to faster and cheaper money transfers across borders, a survey conducted by the International Monetary Fund found that central banks are looking at benefits like lower costs, more efficient monetary policy, blunting competition from bitcoin and its peers, and offering a risk-free payment network to the public....
The total market capitalization of bitcoin, the most popular form of digital currency, has grown dramatically since its creation in 2009, but still lags far behind the total value of U.S. dollars in circulation.
U.S. cash in circulation continues to grow apace, as seen in the expansion of M1, a basic money supply gauge that measures funds that are readily available for spending, including checking accounts that pay interest and those that don't, and currency.
The result could be a sweeping change in the international financial system, affecting, among other things, how nations trade.
The country that is first to introduce a digital currency that is more easily stored and used abroad than its physical counterpart will have “a first-mover advantage to greater currency use, though not necessarily to reserve currency use,” says Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, deputy division chief of the IMF’s central bank operations division.
The increasing interest in national digital currencies dovetails with a changing marketplace. Developing nations increasingly make up a larger percentage of global gross domestic product while the U.S. share shrinks.
The dollar’s hegemony made sense after World War II, when the U.S. accounted for 28% of global exports. Now, the figure is just 8.8%, according to the IMF. Yet the dollar still dominates international trade. Around 40% of world trade is invoiced in dollars, roughly four times the U.S. share of world trade, according to data from Gita Gopinath, a Harvard University professor who is now the IMF’s chief economist. And the dollar is used in 88% of all foreign-exchange trades world-wide, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
The dollar isn’t going to lose its position overnight, Mr. Carney said at the August gathering. But bankers should be thinking about a post-dollar world now, he added, rather than waiting for the next crisis to force change.
The dollar’s status as the lingua franca of international business provides benefits: Companies in places like Argentina can export goods to Turkey, and get paid in dollars. Because those dollars are deposited in local banks, they can be lent to companies. In fact, because there are so many dollar deposits, it’s actually cheaper for overseas businesses to borrow in the U.S. currency, creating a feedback loop that maintains the greenback’s pre-eminence.
But as Mr. Carney noted last month, this convenience has a downside: When the dollar appreciates, debt denominated in dollars becomes more expensive for foreign businesses. At the same time, the price of those countries’ imports rises, which can feed inflation.
Because of the dollar’s status and the fact that economies are more interconnected than ever, dozens of countries are essentially beholden to U.S. fiscal and monetary policy. Fluctuations in the dollar’s value feed through credit markets, causing surges and withdrawals of capital that can cause financial crises in emerging markets.
“U.S. developments have significant spillovers onto both the trade performance and financial conditions of countries with even relatively limited direct exposure to the U.S. economy,” Mr. Carney said.
One countermeasure to that dynamic could be a “synthetic hegemonic currency,” as Mr. Carney called it, a fancier term for a global public cryptocurrency. The currency he proposed would be based on a basket of reliable currencies, including the dollar and China’s renminbi....
For the Chinese, digitizing the renminbi is a way to get out from under the U.S.’s thumb, says Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University and former head of the IMF’s China Division. China’s goal isn’t necessarily to overthrow the dollar, he says. But they want to give their allies an alternative to the dollar and create a system that couldn’t be disrupted by the U.S.
“Would the Chinese like to be less vulnerable to American sanctions? Happier if they didn’t have to use the dollar for their imports and exports? The answer to that is unambiguously yes,” he says.
China‘s digital currency would differ significantly from the bitcoin model, with the central bank keeping control of the money supply and tracking users’ identities.
The people and companies behind private cryptocurrencies believe their assets will still have value even if countries move to digitize their national currencies. People around the world won’t want to give up the anonymity and privacy associated with cryptocurrency, they say, even if they are pushed into using solely electronic forms of cash.
“What you end up with is a situation where the government has potentially perfect surveillance into all the financial flows in the entire economy,” says Travis Scher, vice president of investments at Digital Currency Group, owner of the digital-currency trading firm Genesis Trading. “In a world where a country like China issues its own digital currency and tries to move the entire economy onto that, it actually will increase demand for cryptocurrencies and digital currencies that are more private and create the potential for more autonomy.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coming-currency-war-digital-money-vs-the-dollar-11569204540Another big issue is that I don't think the government knows where it fits into all of this. My guess is that the US will create a digital US dollar that will become the only accepted stable coin. Companies and private entities will be able to create whatever cryptocurrencies they want, but there will only be government-approved cryptocurrencies that can be redeemed for digital US dollars, which will be the only accepted form of payment for taxes, property, government subsidies, salaries and other major expenses.
This is a problem of fungibility, aka exchangeability. Think of it the same way you'd have trouble exchanging any points from rewards programs that you might have into dollars. You can't pay fines, taxes, or salaries with your frequent flyer miles. However, you can trade certain collectibles, like comics, sports cards, or artwork, and "redeem" dollar, but that is only possible if others value your collectible. A middle ground there is something like a gift card, which you could get someone to buy from you for dollars, but the person would have to be committed to spending their money in that particular shop. What cryptocurrencies could do is make all those gift cards, frequent flyer miles, rewards programs points...etc more easily exchangeable. For example, maybe you have a bunch of Delta tokens (miles) built up, but only American flies to where you are going. You could exchange your Delta tokens with someone who has American Airlines tokens (miles) in order to purchase your flight.
All that said, you have this interesting article which shows the dangers of this converging of tech and finance:
The lines between banks and tech companies are blurring. And this makes it all the more confusing that tech companies and banks both refer to customers’ preferences when justifying their divergent corporate decisions about brick-and-mortar storefronts. Tech companies lack the waning public trust of retail banking institutions; however, they are delivering financial products and services over which banks are used to having exclusive control. Because tech companies and banks increasingly share a customer base, the apparent contradictions in corporate decisions to open and close retail stores can’t be explained away by within-industry changes in people’s preferences or consumption patterns.
One answer is that tech and finance industries are jockeying for control over new terrains and manipulating their economies of scale to extract new forms of value. This value extraction relies on and reifies a socially constructed racial hierarchy.
Since their inception, banks have relied on a racial hierarchy for generating profits and accumulating wealth. As Angela Glover Blackwell and Michael McAfee write, “Banks have been the underwriters of American racism.” Banks have financed the slave trade, funded local development to segregate cities, denied affordable mortgages to Black and brown borrowers, and charged Black and brown customers more for retail banking services.
Banks routinely compound the racialized costs of banking by refusing to make changes that would benefit their customers. For decades, banks have ignored people’s demands for the elimination of overdraft fees, free or low-cost checking accounts, and low-interest loans and mortgages that would have come at the expense of their bottom lines. While some banks have framed their recent decisions to discontinue overdraft fees as part of commitments to advance racial equity, these decisions coincide with competition from tech companies and threats of federal regulation and oversight. In actuality, retail banks spend about $60 million per year on lobbying efforts to avoid demands from public policymakers requiring them to offer affordable products and services...
The foreclosure of banking alternatives forces a reliance on technology that aids in the expansion of the surveillance state disproportionately into Black and brown communities. The prominence of tech companies in the virtual space, combined with the retraction of banks in the physical space, creates new conditions for extractive finance and predatory surveillance. Like payday lenders and check cashers that occupy communities exploited and abandoned by banks, tech companies capitalize on the vulnerabilities and truancies of our institutions.
Not only are tech companies expanding into brick-and-mortar retail stores; they are competing with banks in the delivery of financial products and services, such as by providing checking account and payment services and loan underwriting. Tech companies’ financial products and services activities comprise a growing share of their revenue—about 12 percent of revenue in 2019 among the largest companies, including Amazon and Meta. And there is every indication that tech companies will continue to increase their revenue from these activities....
Private companies operating under racial capitalism have always been able to find the regulatory loopholes, and tech companies’ operations are arguably much harder to scrutinize than retail banking institutions. Tech companies have already proven nimble at evading federal rules designed for retail banks, setting up the potential for similar conditions that have plagued payday-lending regulation for decades. And regulatory strategies have never fully redressed banks’ racial discrimination, which bodes ominous since tech companies knowingly rely on racist algorithms and data.
https://prospect.org/economy/banks-tech-companies-jockey-for-economic-control/Here are some other articles that talk a bit about the regulation challenges:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/17/business/economy/federal-reserve-virtual-currency-stablecoin.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/why-central-banks-want-to-create-their-own-digital-currencies-like-bitcoin-11603291131https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/23/us/politics/cryptocurrency-regulators-rules.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/05/us/politics/cryptocurrency-banking-regulation.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/05/us/politics/cryptocurrency-explainer.html