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Moar COVID 19 talk.

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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#761 » by GONYK » Tue Oct 6, 2020 4:48 pm

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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#762 » by Pointgod » Tue Oct 6, 2020 5:49 pm

GONYK wrote:
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Undecided voters: “I still need to hear more from Biden”
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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#763 » by GONYK » Tue Oct 6, 2020 6:14 pm

Pointgod wrote:
GONYK wrote:
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Undecided voters: “I still need to hear more from Biden”


Zuckerberg making this move signals he senses political weakness with the Trump admin. He's lost fear of retaliation.
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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#764 » by j4remi » Tue Oct 6, 2020 6:48 pm

cgmw wrote:I cop to my own amateur ignorance here, but my uninformed opinion is that voter turnout is 99% of what matters, not "undecideds." If purple state momentum flushes red then Trump will win. If momentum looks blue, then Biden gets it. The idea of "undecideds" is becoming less and less relevant in the 24/7 smartphone news cycle era. It's all about who stays home vs who feels motivated to cast a vote.


This idea along with Negative Partisanship tied into a pollster named Bitcofer's approach to analyzing the data. She called the Blue Wave 2018 months before it was on anyone else's radar.

(rough paraphrasing here) First idea is that there aren't really many swing voters at all but rather voters who either turn out or just stay home. The swings we see are reflective of different demographics being motivated to turnout and not so much voters' changing party allegiances.

Second is negative partisanship which is basically that voters can be motivated to turn out in the name of voting AGAINST something rather than for a candidate. So you'd see bigger correlations for the blue wave in 2018 in places where campaigns targeted Trump than in places where campaigns tried to softball Trump and appeal to other issues.

cgmw wrote:Trump needs to flip the script from Covid vulnerability/weakness into a show of strength, like that baboon running Brazil who survived Covid only to basically call everyone a p*ssy for making a big deal of it. Right wing voters vote for perceived strength and refusal to be politically correct, which they view as abhorrent weakness. This bout with Covid could give Trump a real boost if he truly survives it unscathed and wears it like a badge of honor calling everyone else a p*ssy.

Historically and legally, it'll be super interesting if Trump carries the electoral college vote via court decision while losing the popular vote by >5+ million. At that point, I think Putin can truly celebrate that he dismantled American democracy.


The way Bolsonaro got into power is pretty foul and worth a look. Operation Car Wash was led by Sergio Moro and basically targeted his opposition; including imprisoning Lula. Moro then got pumped to Justice Minister under Bolsonaro who wouldn't have won without that mess. If you want to see ugly right wing politics, Brazil and what happened in Bolivia are both really noteworthy. The way the OAS disrupted election results and set the stage for an unelected leader to take power is especially frustrating in light of how their very next election has been shaping up.
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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#765 » by stuporman » Tue Oct 6, 2020 7:21 pm

cgmw wrote:
stuporman wrote:The Trump and republican base does not care what he does or happens they are voting for him so none of this matters to them. The undecideds.....which I cannot understand how anyone is undecided at this point but I suppose there are some out there, they can be swayed by this.

The election is going to be decided not with ballots but with judges and Trump has been working towards this end for his whole term. Republicans have been rigging elections for decades and this one will not be any different because Biden doesn't have the strong support to make that irrelevant.

I cop to my own amateur ignorance here, but my uninformed opinion is that voter turnout is 99% of what matters, not "undecideds." If purple state momentum flushes red then Trump will win. If momentum looks blue, then Biden gets it. The idea of "undecideds" is becoming less and less relevant in the 24/7 smartphone news cycle era. It's all about who stays home vs who feels motivated to cast a vote.

Trump needs to flip the script from Covid vulnerability/weakness into a show of strength, like that baboon running Brazil who survived Covid only to basically call everyone a p*ssy for making a big deal of it. Right wing voters vote for perceived strength and refusal to be politically correct, which they view as abhorrent weakness. This bout with Covid could give Trump a real boost if he truly survives it unscathed and wears it like a badge of honor calling everyone else a p*ssy.

Historically and legally, it'll be super interesting if Trump carries the electoral college vote via court decision while losing the popular vote by >5+ million. At that point, I think Putin can truly celebrate that he dismantled American democracy.


Well, that's what the many tactics the gop uses to disenfranchise voters almost exclusively democrats to squash and negate any turnout advantage the dems have. Mail in ballots circumvent their attempts to stop people from voting so it's a main reason why the gop hates it.

All the theater going on with the *gasp* stories isn't changing very many voter's minds so I don't care to analyze it at all. Just look at the thousands of corrupt and criminal things that the gop and Trump have been doing over the years.... it means little to nothing at all to the voter bases.
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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#766 » by Clyde_Style » Tue Oct 6, 2020 7:26 pm

GONYK wrote:
Pointgod wrote:
GONYK wrote:
Read on Twitter
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Undecided voters: “I still need to hear more from Biden”


Zuckerberg making this move signals he senses political weakness with the Trump admin. He's lost fear of retaliation.


.... which appears to be triggering Trump now.

If I understand it correctly, the steroids he got may have given him a temporary boost and surge of energy, but that there is an aftermath that can manifest as depression and roid rage. I'm guessing we've entered that phase in his physical response and the tweeting will get more manic

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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#767 » by Clyde_Style » Tue Oct 6, 2020 7:34 pm

No covid stimulus package pending. Trump killed it today. 75% of Americans polled want this, many of them need it. Seems like the GOP motherboard has a chip designed to make decisions guaranteed to tank their chances in November
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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#768 » by Clyde_Style » Tue Oct 6, 2020 7:40 pm

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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#769 » by Clyde_Style » Tue Oct 6, 2020 7:42 pm

R.I.P. Eddie Van Halen

Throat cancer. Does not sound like covid was involved
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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#770 » by NoDopeOnSundays » Tue Oct 6, 2020 7:44 pm

Clyde_Style wrote:
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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#771 » by Clyde_Style » Tue Oct 6, 2020 7:49 pm

NoDopeOnSundays wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:
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He did not look well with his fresh coat of bronzer and tight suit during his Mussolini balcony photo op. I expect him to get more ill, at least before he gets better if he recovers. But his handling of this feels like he's baiting Rona so I kind of expect him to lose the battle.
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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#772 » by BallSacBounce » Tue Oct 6, 2020 7:52 pm

Trump now symptom free. Wow.
He comes out of this looking like King Kong and Captain America all rolled into one while the libs lose their freaking minds just because he's healthy again and with the quickness. It's just a complete win all around.

Inspiring words on how not to let Covid dominate your life. So true. We can't just keep shutting everything down. We've never quarantined healthy people before. We don't do these things to prevent the spread of the flu or tuberculosis which are both respiratory illnesses, spread in a similar way, that kill many people worldwide every year.

This is ridiculous what we're doing. Hysteria everywhere. Protect the older population for sure. Work on a vaccine. If you're sick get quarantined absolutely but leave the healthy people to go about their business. You can't legislate disease away. It's a part of life.
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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#773 » by Pointgod » Tue Oct 6, 2020 8:13 pm

Clyde_Style wrote:No covid stimulus package pending. Trump killed it today. 75% of Americans polled want this, many of them need it. Seems like the GOP motherboard has a chip designed to make decisions guaranteed to tank their chances in November


I mean this a completely idiotic and I have no idea who this appeals to. It’s almost like an own goal for Trump’s campaign unless he’s just willing to take the heat off Senators. It’s a **** stupid move if you ask me.
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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#774 » by Pointgod » Tue Oct 6, 2020 8:17 pm

BallSacBounce wrote:Trump now symptom free. Wow.
He comes out of this looking like King Kong and Captain America all rolled into one while the libs lose their freaking minds just because he's healthy again and with the quickness. It's just a complete win all around.

Inspiring words on how not to let Covid dominate your life. So true. We can't just keep shutting everything down. We've never quarantined healthy people before. We don't do these things to prevent the spread of the flu or tuberculosis which are both respiratory illnesses, spread in a similar way, that kill many people worldwide every year.

This is ridiculous what we're doing. Hysteria everywhere. Protect the older population for sure. Work on a vaccine. If you're sick get quarantined absolutely but leave the healthy people to go about their business. You can't legislate disease away. It's a part of life.


Yes, yes symptom free....... :roll: picture of perfect health right here.

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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#775 » by Clyde_Style » Tue Oct 6, 2020 8:18 pm

Pointgod wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:No covid stimulus package pending. Trump killed it today. 75% of Americans polled want this, many of them need it. Seems like the GOP motherboard has a chip designed to make decisions guaranteed to tank their chances in November


I mean this a completely idiotic and I have no idea who this appeals to. It’s almost like an own goal for Trump’s campaign unless he’s just willing to take the heat off Senators. It’s a **** stupid move if you ask me.


I think the answer to why this campaign continues to bungle covid response and kill any meaningful actions is on display in the idolatrous MAGA political campaign ad devoid of actual analytical assessments sitting above your post.
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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#776 » by Clyde_Style » Tue Oct 6, 2020 8:26 pm

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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#777 » by GONYK » Tue Oct 6, 2020 8:26 pm

Clyde_Style wrote:
Pointgod wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:No covid stimulus package pending. Trump killed it today. 75% of Americans polled want this, many of them need it. Seems like the GOP motherboard has a chip designed to make decisions guaranteed to tank their chances in November


I mean this a completely idiotic and I have no idea who this appeals to. It’s almost like an own goal for Trump’s campaign unless he’s just willing to take the heat off Senators. It’s a **** stupid move if you ask me.


I think the answer to why this campaign continues to bungle covid response and kill any meaningful actions is on display in the idolatrous MAGA political campaign ad devoid of actual analytical assessments sitting above your post.
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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#778 » by CharlesOakley » Tue Oct 6, 2020 8:28 pm

BallSacBounce wrote:Trump now symptom free. Wow.


What is the term for gaslighting oneself? Image
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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#779 » by j4remi » Tue Oct 6, 2020 8:32 pm

The damage a lack of any kind of stimulus package could do if a Winter second wave sets in as bad as it very well could...it's really, really concerning.
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Re: Moar COVID 19 talk. 

Post#780 » by Clyde_Style » Tue Oct 6, 2020 8:36 pm

GONYK wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:
Pointgod wrote:
I mean this a completely idiotic and I have no idea who this appeals to. It’s almost like an own goal for Trump’s campaign unless he’s just willing to take the heat off Senators. It’s a **** stupid move if you ask me.


I think the answer to why this campaign continues to bungle covid response and kill any meaningful actions is on display in the idolatrous MAGA political campaign ad devoid of actual analytical assessments sitting above your post.
Read on Twitter
?s=19


Yes, the debate and the Mussolini superspreading behavior is resulting more in Biden's support growing more than Trump's base level declining. So that 40% baseline for Trump is still there, but in different reports there is a very large shift that is moving the spread between Biden and Trump almost 100% to Biden now. So that margin between them that Trump needed to make gains with has all but vanished and it is migrating completely to Biden.

What we don't see yet is how the absolutely massive month long shift to Biden in the over 65 demographic will manifest at the polls, but it does seem like it could drop Trump below 40% of the popular vote, because those numbers are huge.

P.S. Let's re-open the political thread soon. We've stuck it out for so long it would stink to not have it for the home stretch.

FOLKS, just hit the report button when the political thread re-opens when you get pissed off at MAGA nonsense. Thanks

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