j4remi wrote:Clyde_Style wrote:
I understand what you're saying, but I should state it differently. Manchin typically throws bones to the red side of the aisle when he is not the deciding vote. That is basically his M.O.
What that means is he has often voted with the GOP during these past four years. He even voted for Kavanaugh, but he was not the margin of victory which was two votes. That's how close he'll shave it to feed the conservative factions of his base, but I still think he can be persuaded to vote with the Dems when he sits on the fulcrum and may be the deciding vote.
Plus, if November goes as is hoped then I expect that to produce a strong wind in the sails of the party to enact more progressive legislation. I think there will be an eruption between elections and the inauguration due to Trump chit stirring his base and abusing his office, but after that dies down I think lots of the MAGA types will crawl back under a rock. Not all of them, but that populist movement will be deflated rather quickly as so much of it is personality driven and only vaguely policy based outside of broad strokes like killing black people and putting kids in cages.
And my thesis is that as 2021 unfolds it will be safer and safer politically for the Manchins to side with the Democratic platform as the backlash occurs against the vast amount of corruption that will be exposed and prosecuted. The GOP is going to be so crippled for at least a while that it will help the Dems hold their majority of votes in line.
Context is important here imo because the order that this happened in matters . Schumer was trying to WHIP the entire Democratic party to put more pressure on the Republican moderates, we'd only need one in that case. But Manchin and a couple of others outright refused to acknowledge Schumer's leadership and Manchin said outright that Schumer could kiss his "you know what."
This wasn't "oh well they don't have the votes, so I'll just play to my constituents." It was Schumer saying "we need a united front to even have a chance to win this fight" and Manchin responding "kiss my ass."
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/13/schumer-supreme-court-fight-centrist-democrats-716654
Generally speaking, the votes that go against party line voting (in instances that it's for strategic reasons) are made in unison with leadership. The understanding is mutual. This was not the case here.
I hear you. That's why the remainder of my post was about the context of 2021 which will likely be very different and may affect how rightwards a guy like Manchin remains inclined to be.
