Phish Tank wrote:Pointgod wrote:And this is why you don’t lose your mind over one poll. But of course the media narrative for the next week won’t Biden is doing well with Hispanic voters in Florida because it only reinforces a trend that polls in other states have shown (Arizona, Nevada) and the national lead shows. It doesn’t mean there shouldn’t be an increased outreach to Hispanic voters but the doom and gloom and I told you so’s don’t actually serve a purpose.
the grandstanding of these horserace polls is ridiculous honestly. People really expect a perfect candidate, as if we know what happens behind the scenes every single second.
Nobody that discusses polls in earnest is just looking at the topline data and the discussion on the Latin vote should be about moving the margins not just "we're winning so it's fine." The good stuff is in reading the data inside, like here from that poll...
Biden’s current lead among Latinos is similar to Clinton’s margin four years ago. One difference, though, is how Florida’s Latino electorate has shifted since 2016. There has been an influx of residents from Puerto Rico and a growing number of young voters. These groups tend to be more Democratic, which actually suggests that Trump could be doing slightly better among older Latino voters than he did four years ago,”
Now to me...this begs the question, "wtf did Trump do that managed to win over more support from Florida Latinos?" And I ask that because Biden has lost ground with them. He's made up that ground via displaced Puerto Ricans (yall should be so damned grateful for us
), that's not the same as the margins just holding from last race to now. It's a deeper context that I personally think is worth exploring. And it's not like this is solely clickbait crap that some of the hyperbole suggests...here's 538 looking to contextualize polling data on Latino voters with some depth
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/why-some-latino-voters-are-backing-trump/You don't need a "perfect candidate" to appeal to these voters. The question about why these margins haven't moved more dramatically is a lot more nuanced and could be valuable both this election and into the future. I think the most interesting part from that 538 discussion as someone with family in Florida is at 44 minutes into the discussion where media misinformation comes up as having potential impacts there. That's a phenomenon I feel like I'm witnessing in my personal life, but can't attest to beyond a number of anecdotes.