Official MMA discussion thread pt 3 UFC 300: Pereira vs Hill, Zhang vs Xionan, BMF Gaethje vs Holloway

[HarthorneWingo]

On his 40th birthday, Clay Guida overcomes a 10-8 first round - which some refs may have called - to get a 2nd round submission win over Leandro Santos. Clay took a beating in that first round too.

Seems like I’ve been watching Clay fight forever. Much respect to him.

[HarthorneWingo]

Love both Font and Aldo. Just rooting for a great fight.

[HarthorneWingo]

Font really dictating the pace early. Smart

Edit: maybe not so smart.

Edit: going into round 4 and it’s looking like a war.

[HarthorneWingo]

The ref is just letting Aldo sit on Font

[HarthorneWingo]

190 lbs His fighting days are over.

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[j4remi]

Font really dictating the pace early. Smart

Edit: maybe not so smart.

Edit: going into round 4 and it’s looking like a war.

What a fantastic fight. Aldo was the Khabib of 145 for like 10 years straight, before the UFC had a division for it even. After Conor and Max, it felt like he was done and then the loss to Yan seemed like a "stick a fork in 'em" moment. But here he is, taking down contenders and still being one of the toughest fights Yan had (Sandhagen's the only clearly tougher fight).

Aldo's basically my argument against Khabib's presence in the GOAT convo. Khabib's UFC career is dwarfed in length by the rest of the GOAT candidates and that means a lot less title fights as the focal point of a division. Guys like Aldo, GSP, Silva, and Jones dominated their divisions for full eras. That meant every fighter in their division was prepping for 'em, the amount of film to study was massive, and they had to face every kind of test. Aldo has had to reinvent himself twice, first after a knee injury and second to address volume strikers blanking him...but he keeps going and stays beating elites.

The other really good fight was Fiziev vs Riddell, both guys will be competing with ranked fighters for a long time. Fiziev is a special talent, could wind up pushing into the top five convo but that division's so stacked there are zero guarantees.

As an aside, Kyoji Horiguchi was pitching a shutout gem against Sergio Pettis...then Pettis did some showtime ish, head kick miss to spinning backfist flash KO. Guch dominated 3 and a half rounds but this is MMA! One strike can change everything. I still think Horiguchi's the best at 135 in Bellator though, and 2022 will have a BW tournament so I expect him to get revenge.

Annnnnnd this week...this week we're getting a gem. I'll definitely carve out space to write on it.

[j4remi]

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Nerdy stuff but interesting, the reason big dudes cut a ton of weight “scienced” out.

In other news…Paul vs fury is off, my buddies are all skeptical (they think fury got paid to not fight ). Anyway, Woodley gets his rematch and I have very little interest in that fight.

[j4remi]

Speaking of aldo being my example of why Khabib doesn’t really stand up to the other GOATs imo

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[j4remi]

Alright, I wanna get this at least started because the final ppv for the UFC in 2021 is pretty stacked. 2 Major title fights plus a bunch of name value even through the pre-lims. UFC 269 Oliveira vs Poirier and Nunes vs Pena.

Oliveira won Khabib's vacant belt in a great fight with Michael Chandler. He's got the longest journey to a belt in UFC history (28 fights) with a style that is like Tony Ferguson but with more sanity and less reckless abandon. We're talking pace, volume, and lengthy striking with elite grappling skills that mean fighters can't just shoot across gaps and clinch to close space.

Poirier...do I gotta explain? He would have fought Chandler for that vacant title if not for making bank on a Conor rematch. He's treated like the uncrowned king by many and has earned that status by beating a lot of the best at LW and having a similarly long journey to a title shot. He's the inverse of Oliveira. An elite striker with power striking and underrated grappling that he only really utilizes when absolutely needed.

Both guys can fight you anywhere, both are tough, both have STACKED resumes of opponents. This is close to a guarantee of a great fight.

Nunes vs Pena is a tougher sell. Pena won TUF a long time ago and had a lot of hype, but she suffered a bad knee injury and then took a second extended break for pregnancy. She was an elite wrestler, tough as nails, with limited but decent striking that could get her inside to force grappling. Pace and pressure are her gifts. But everything has slipped a bit since the knee injury and she was already a fairly flawed fighter. Nunes needs no intro, she's the GOAT female fighter and has KO'ed the other women in the discussion besides Joanna and Rose who are too small to fight her. Nunes' biggest weaknesses have historically been cardio and pressure, so Pena does have a template to win...but Nunes hasn't gassed in a long time, has refined her entire game, and seems more likely to keep the fight standing and get a KO/TKO.

But the entire card is stacked and there's a lot to be hype about. Let's start wit some embeddeds and the Countdown. I'll try and get to listing some other hype names and fights in the next couple of days along with predictions.

Here's some of the build-up, in link form.

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Here's the card:
Charles Oliveira (c) vs. Dustin Poirier
Amanda Nunes (c) vs. Julianna Peña
Geoff Neal vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Kai Kara-France vs. Cody Garbrandt
Raulian Paiva vs. Sean O'Malley

prelims:
Josh Emmett vs. Dan Ige
Dominick Cruz vs. Pedro Munhoz
Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa
Jordan Wright vs. Bruno Silva

early prelims:
André Muniz vs. Eryk Anders
Erin Blanchfield vs. Miranda Maverick
Alex Perez vs. Matt Schnell
Ryan Hall vs. Darrick Minner
Randy Costa vs.Tony Kelley
Gillian Robertson vs. Priscila Cachoeira

I've bolded some names worth knowing from the prelims too. Some you'll almost definitely be familiar with, others are worth looking into because they're entertaining, promising prospects, or something along those lines that I can hopefully get into later.

Anyway, gimme your predictions fam...Poirier or Oliveira? FotN? Prospect of the night? What you guys looking for?

[HarthorneWingo]

I'm going with Oliveira over Poirier. I love both fighters and I hope they both bring their best and make it a fight deserving of their legacies.

Pena isn't beating Nunes.

There are some interesting fights on the card. Sean O'Malley, Ryan Hall, Cruz, Emmet vs. Ige, Maverick.

[j4remi]

I'm going with Oliveira over Poirier. I love both fighters and I hope they both bring their best and make it a fight deserving of their legacies.

Pena isn't beating Nunes.

There are some interesting fights on the card. Sean O'Malley, Ryan Hall, Cruz, Emmet vs. Ige, Maverick.

I'm leaning toward Poirier, but rooting for Oliveira and I'm a lot closer to 50/50 than anything. I think Do Bronx has a path to victory by establishing his takedown threat so Poirier has to be mindful about winging out power or overextending his combos. That should let Oliveira work from further out and try to create some scrambles when Poirier goes in...the reason I think Diamond wins though is because Oliveira's head movement is shaky. Chandler isn't the only dude to clip Charles and Poirier is a more measured and savvy striker than Mike. I have a feeling Poirier can steal a round or two with a knockdown and then a competitive fight would give him a chance to edge it on points (almost similar to the Max result, close rounds but power makes the difference).

I'm with you on Nunes winning. Hard to see Pena winning, although she'll try to do the Cat Zingano fight...wear Amanda out, take her down, and win through cardio. I just don't see Nunes losing that way unless the other fighter is special and I think of Pena as just good, not special.

O'malley and Cody basically promo'ed a headliner if they both win. But both guys have tougher tests than they get credit for. I think O'malley's is the easier dub, whereas Cody's becomes a toss-up for me based on how the weight cut hits him which is an unknown.

Emmett vs Ige is SUCH A TREAT!!! Cruz vs Munhoz too, that should be a lot of fun with Munoz trying to slow Cruz by going low.

I expect Hall to bounce back and I would tune in early for Schnell vs Perez. Those early prelims are sneaky good.

[HarthorneWingo]

I'm going with Oliveira over Poirier. I love both fighters and I hope they both bring their best and make it a fight deserving of their legacies.

Pena isn't beating Nunes.

There are some interesting fights on the card. Sean O'Malley, Ryan Hall, Cruz, Emmet vs. Ige, Maverick.

I'm leaning toward Poirier, but rooting for Oliveira and I'm a lot closer to 50/50 than anything. I think Do Bronx has a path to victory by establishing his takedown threat so Poirier has to be mindful about winging out power or overextending his combos. That should let Oliveira work from further out and try to create some scrambles when Poirier goes in...the reason I think Diamond wins though is because Oliveira's head movement is shaky. Chandler isn't the only dude to clip Charles and Poirier is a more measured and savvy striker than Mike. I have a feeling Poirier can steal a round or two with a knockdown and then a competitive fight would give him a chance to edge it on points (almost similar to the Max result, close rounds but power makes the difference).

I'm with you on Nunes winning. Hard to see Pena winning, although she'll try to do the Cat Zingano fight...wear Amanda out, take her down, and win through cardio. I just don't see Nunes losing that way unless the other fighter is special and I think of Pena as just good, not special.

O'malley and Cody basically promo'ed a headliner if they both win. But both guys have tougher tests than they get credit for. I think O'malley's is the easier dub, whereas Cody's becomes a toss-up for me based on how the weight cut hits him which is an unknown.

Emmett vs Ige is SUCH A TREAT!!! Cruz vs Munhoz too, that should be a lot of fun with Munoz trying to slow Cruz by going low.

I expect Hall to bounce back and I would tune in early for Schnell vs Perez. Those early prelims are sneaky good.

Good point about Oliveira’s lack of head movement but doesn’t he control distance better? Also, what if the fight goes to the mat? All Charles will need is a level change for single or double leg. Feels like Khabib all over again.

[j4remi]

I'm leaning toward Poirier, but rooting for Oliveira and I'm a lot closer to 50/50 than anything. I think Do Bronx has a path to victory by establishing his takedown threat so Poirier has to be mindful about winging out power or overextending his combos. That should let Oliveira work from further out and try to create some scrambles when Poirier goes in...the reason I think Diamond wins though is because Oliveira's head movement is shaky. Chandler isn't the only dude to clip Charles and Poirier is a more measured and savvy striker than Mike. I have a feeling Poirier can steal a round or two with a knockdown and then a competitive fight would give him a chance to edge it on points (almost similar to the Max result, close rounds but power makes the difference).

I'm with you on Nunes winning. Hard to see Pena winning, although she'll try to do the Cat Zingano fight...wear Amanda out, take her down, and win through cardio. I just don't see Nunes losing that way unless the other fighter is special and I think of Pena as just good, not special.

O'malley and Cody basically promo'ed a headliner if they both win. But both guys have tougher tests than they get credit for. I think O'malley's is the easier dub, whereas Cody's becomes a toss-up for me based on how the weight cut hits him which is an unknown.

Emmett vs Ige is SUCH A TREAT!!! Cruz vs Munhoz too, that should be a lot of fun with Munoz trying to slow Cruz by going low.

I expect Hall to bounce back and I would tune in early for Schnell vs Perez. Those early prelims are sneaky good.

Good point about Oliveira’s lack of head movement but doesn’t he control distance better? Also, what if the fight goes to the mat? All Charles will need is a level change for single or double leg. Feels like Khabib all over again.

Yeah, he definitely controls distance really well. We've seen him brawl through fighters who fight long before. That's definitely where Oliveira should level change to keep him off-balance. Even if he doesn't land the attempts, they'll take some juice off Poirier's punches. In theory, Do Bronx has the perfect skill package to win. But he's not a Khabib level striker and his striking is really good but he's hittable. Poirier's fight IQ is really, really good and I think that gives him a chance to find chins the same way Michael Chandler's hand speed does.

It's really 50/50 for me. Slight-lean toward Dustin, but barely. Strength of schedule is my tie-breaker.

[Guano]

Piorier is going to piece tf outta Oliveira. His boxing is too good. Oliveira doesn't have the defense and his chin is suspect. Late 1st or early 2nd.

Or I'm way off and Oliveira chokes out Poirier.

Either way we're in for one of those fights that's gets the blood pumping. Can't wait.

[HarthorneWingo]

Piorier is going to piece tf outta Oliveira. His boxing is too good. Oliveira doesn't have the defense and his chin is suspect. Late 1st or early 2nd.

Or I'm way off and Oliveira chokes out Poirier.

Either way we're in for one of those fights that's gets the blood pumping. Can't wait.

Look at what Oliveira did to Chandler.

[Guano]

Piorier is going to piece tf outta Oliveira. His boxing is too good. Oliveira doesn't have the defense and his chin is suspect. Late 1st or early 2nd.

Or I'm way off and Oliveira chokes out Poirier.

Either way we're in for one of those fights that's gets the blood pumping. Can't wait.

Look at what Oliveira did to Chandler.

i saw the fight and what i saw was chandler "almost" had Oliveira outta there and in a lot of fights the ref would have stopped that sht.

[j4remi]

Piorier is going to piece tf outta Oliveira. His boxing is too good. Oliveira doesn't have the defense and his chin is suspect. Late 1st or early 2nd.

Or I'm way off and Oliveira chokes out Poirier.

Either way we're in for one of those fights that's gets the blood pumping. Can't wait.

It's going to be INTENSE. They're both super aggressive with crazy finishing rates considering the competition. I really can't wait.

[bringbackhoffa]

Going with Dustin, Amanda, Santiago, Kai, O'Malley, Emmett, Cruz, Tai, and Ryan Hall

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[j4remi]

Going with Dustin, Amanda, Santiago, Kai, O'Malley, Emmett, Cruz, Tai, and Ryan Hall

Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM mobile app

I'm surprised everybody I know is picking Josh Emmett when he's coming back from an ACL tear. Ige and Schnell are my favorite long shots on the card.

[Guano]

Piorier is going to piece tf outta Oliveira. His boxing is too good. Oliveira doesn't have the defense and his chin is suspect. Late 1st or early 2nd.

Or I'm way off and Oliveira chokes out Poirier.

Either way we're in for one of those fights that's gets the blood pumping. Can't wait.

It's going to be INTENSE. They're both super aggressive with crazy finishing rates considering the competition. I really can't wait.

the more i think about it the more i'm talking myself into Poirier dog walking Chucky Olives. Oliveira's best win in this stretch is against Chandler who, while facing top comp in the UFC, is under 500. other than that his best win is against a washed, all love, Ferg. Other than that those wins on this stretch aren't too impressive. 2 of the wins are guys who are cut and the other 2 are guys outta the top 15.