E-Balla wrote: spree8 wrote:
E-Balla wrote:This is the funniest part. 5 of the last 7 MVPs were drafted outside the top 5.
The current basketball reference MVP ladder is:
1. Steph, drafted 7th.
2. Jokic, drafted 41st.
3. Jimmy, drafted 30th.
4. KD, drafted 2nd.
5. CP3, drafted 4th.
6. Giannis, drafted 15th.
7. Gobert, drafted 27th.
8. Montrezl, drafted 27th.
9. Harden, drafted 3rd.
10. DeRozan, drafted 9th.
The truth is development matters just as much as talent. We have young guys. We have high picks (RJ was 3rd overall and 1st going into college). We have breakout late picks (Mitch and IQ). Let's give this group time to grow and compete. See if they have that drive to improve. Jimmy was 25 when he broke out under Thibs. All we need is one of these dudes to breakout. The lotto isn't any more forgiving.
Plus we aren't bargaining our future, we have a lot of picks coming up to hopefully grab the next breakout player and a FO I finally trust at least deep in the draft (Obi over Haliburton was just as headscratching as Frank over Mitchell to me - and y'all know those are the players I wanted). We have 11 picks in the next 2 years. I don't care where in the draft they are, if we miss and can't get an all star on those 11 plus our current 10 players with under 3 years experience on the roster we would've been hopeless in the lotto too.
Not like there's any generational high schoolers coming up right now. Emoni Bates seemed like that guy but not so much right now.
Nobody is saying it has to be top 5 every year. There’s deeper drafts than others, but at least being in the top 5 gets you in position to choose whoever you want out of the crop.
That list isn’t compiled of real MVP’s man. Here’s a more legit list:
Pistol Pete- 3rd
Out of the 55-60 above of the greatest of all time, there’s only like 3-4 picked 6th and 1 picked 7th. Some All-Time greats outside of that… but not nearly close to the above.
It really is optimal to get a top pick in the draft to increase your odds of picking who you want (hoping your scouting team did well) even if you wanna do something like Boston did with Tatum and grab your guy a little earlier because your team is sure he’s a star. It’s better to do that than to have your guy taken right before you further down like with Steph.
It's a different era. Players being taken later are performing better and players going early have been more flat than usual.
Historically when you used to see players for years in college it was a lot easier to sus out who was the real deal. Most of those dudes hit the league finished products. Nowadays everyone hits the league young and completely unprepared for NBA basketball and they develop while in the league.
2012 we had a decently top heavy draft and Draymond and Khris Middleton are still 2 of the top 5 players despite being 2nd round picks. Both guys took a while to develop with Middleton making his first all star at 27 and Draymond at 25.
2013 had only 2 of the top 8 players in the draft go top 10 with the rest of the players coming in the late 20s or the mid first round. Giannis took 4 years to be an all star, CJ was trash for 2 years before starting finally at 24, Gobert was 24 before he averaged a double double and 27 before he was an all star, and Dipo didn't become an all star until he was 25 and on his 2nd contract.
2014 only Embiid was a hit in the top 5, Randle is top 10 and an all star. Both guys took a while to develop with Embiid literally sitting out 2 years and Randle not becoming an All Star until the end of his 2nd contract. Lavine also only became an all star at 25 on his 2nd contract.
2015 is a conventional draft where the best player isn't a top pick (Booker) but the other All Stars in the draft are early picks.
2016 had a top 3 that all became all stars. Simmons was an All Star young, it took both JB and Ingram until contract 2 to become all stars. Under that the best players are all picked later and took a while to develop. Sabonis, Siakam, and Brogdon all developed at the very end of their rookie deals.
I can keep going but the point is that with 21 young players in a 5 year period we should be able to find one star. It's on us whether we keep them or ship them out before they have a chance to develop.
When teams like the Warriors got their superstar in the top of the draft and drafted the rest of their core, and then used trades/free agency (Iggy/KD), it’s a textbook way to build a team the right way. The Bulls drafted MJ n Pippen. Celtics drafted Bird n McHale. Lakers drafted Magic n Worthy, then Kobe and signed Shaq. Miami drafted Wade n then traded for Shaq who wanted to come play with Wade… drafting a superstar in Wade is also why Lebron n Bosh came. Spurs drafted Duncan n DRob then Manu, Kawhi, n Tony. The list goes on, but a lot of dynasties n title teams are built thru it. Yes there’s other ways, but the top of the draft is clearly the best way to land your 1st superstar.
You're naming a lot of old teams from before the current lottery odds, before one and done, or anything close to this era. The draft has never been as unreliable as it currently is.
This has been going on since we traded Ewing… one n done, new lotto odds, etc are no excuse for 20+ years of never truly trying this route.
I know times have changed n all, so current day it may be a bit different, but it’s still a reliable method. We just somehow always seem to fuq it up and end up right outside where we should’ve been by not fully committing to a rebuild.
02’ we pass on Amare and trade the pick for McDyess.
We were garbage in 03’… with a historic class, I remember being heated for still not embracing the rebuild n going full throttle to the top of the lotto… instead we ended up just outside of it and drafted Mike Sweetney.
05’ we traded our soul for Marbury the previous year and we ended up still being hot garbage because we had nothing outside of him… genius plan. We land the 8th pick… just 4 spots away from Cp3.
Same in 08’ with Steph… hiring a coach like D’Antoni at that point was premature. The wins he got us cost us a top player of all time.
15’ we lost a coin flip to Minny who got Towns… the 2 out of 3 meaningless wins we just had to get at the very end of the season instead of pulling the plug and securing that #1 spot… oh joy.
20’ fired a coach who was a perfect tank commander and promoted his assistant who ended up having twice the win record… lost a chance at LaMelo or Edwards there (looking at the records of the teams who landed them).
21’ We hire Thibs during a year we should’ve kept rebuilding.. surely that cost us a top pick in this draft. I’d say that’s more important than securing a coach like Thibs who is far from perfect.
Can’t forget all the years we traded our picks for trash only for them to land at the top of the lotto and get other teams perennial All-Stars and DPOY’s.
We’ve been so close to landing what we needed so many times, yet bad luck or whatever you wanna call it, has reared its ugly head and ruined it.
Regarding listing old teams that have won titles by getting their first superstar via the draft….
Warriors- drafted Steph 7th, then Klay n Dray
Cavs- drafted Kyrie #1, signed Lebron who they drafted initially @ #1, and traded their #1 pick for the 3rd star
Spurs- drafted Duncan #1, Kawhi 15th, DRob #1
Heat- drafted Wade #5, without him, Shaq, Lebron, and Bosh would’ve never came.
Mavs, Lakers, and Celtics all drafted Dirk (9th-foreign players weren’t looked at the same), Kobe (13th- high school), and Pierce (10th-projected higher) outside of the top of the lotto, but the point is that these franchises got their superstars in the draft (still near the top, and could’ve went higher if not for the times/era) and the rest followed.
The teams listed above are like 95% of the championship teams in the last 20 years.
It’s rare you get a superstar to come to an empty team. Lebron to LA doesn’t happen every day. The draft is far more likely to get you what you need.