RJ's Upside

[Chanel Bomber]

RJ is obviously a salient topic of conversation because of how significant his outcome as a player is for the trajectory of this franchise. There has been a lot of back and forth regarding his ceiling, since he has shown signs that he could be making the leap as a confident and productive on-ball player.

But as we know, stars aren't created equal. There are great stars. There are secondary stars. There are bad stars.

So I wanted to look at star archetypes using players from today and players from the past, to see what is RJ's likeliest outcome.

In parenthesis, their league-adjusted TS% in their 3rd year in the league (100 is league average). RJ's is 92 (lowest among all players listed below, which I discovered after listing the names), and probably around 98 or 99 in the last 10 games, a significant improvement and hopefully a sign of things to come.

Superstar (high volume, high efficiency, strong gravity)
LeBron (106)
Giannis (105)
Kawhi (111)
Curry (115)
Durant (112)
Jokic (108)
Harden (125).

Before: Wade, Dirk, Shaq, Magic, peak Bird, Malone, Barkley, Olajuwon, Kobe etc.

Common traits: all-time greats with a dominant impact offensively. Can be the best player on a title team.

Star 1 (high volume, ok efficiency, strong gravity)
Luka (103)
Trae (103)

Before: Carmelo, Ewing, Derrick Rose, 2001 Iverson etc.

Common traits: generational talents, early signs of brilliance, decent but not eye-popping efficiency, something missing. Sub-optimal but viable as a #1 with the right pieces around them.

Star 2 (high volume, high efficiency, medium to weak gravity)
Butler (96 *huge aberration, only below-average season of his career)
George (99)
AD (111)
Irving (99 *huge aberration too, only below-average season of his career)
Lillard (105)
Lavine potentially (104)

Before: Billups, Lowry, Allen, Garnett, Ginobili, Gasol, Kemp, Reggie Miller, Richmond, Stoudemire etc.

Common traits: either great shooters or great athletes (for the most part), most of them efficient early in their careers. Better suited as a highly efficient #2 due to their lack of gravity.

Medium Star (semi-high volume, ok to good efficiency, weak gravity)
Middleton (105)
Booker (101)
Beal (97)
Jaylen Brown (99)

Before: pre-2013 Tony Parker, prime Jalen Rose, Steve Smith, Dragic, Iguodala etc.

Common traits: Cannot carry a team due to the lack of gravity, but can be a key piece on a winning team if playing alongside a legitimate superstar.

Bad Star (high-volume, low to average efficiency, weak to medium gravity)
Randle (98)
Ingram (99)
Fox (99)
Porzingis (97)

Before: Mashburn, Stackhouse, Abdur-Rahim, Antoine Walker etc.

Common traits: aggressive scorers, lack of flair, generally decent but not great athletes, can put up numbers but mostly on losing teams, everything seems forced, not fun to watch.

Star Gone Mad (high-volume, low efficiency, in outerspace)
Westbrook (99)

Before: post-2001 Iverson

So based on these categories, where does RJ rank and how does he project?

I think RJ clearly qualifies as a Bad Star today, but that doesn't mean he forever will be one.

Barring a miracle (Superstar, Star 1 or Star 2), or a disaster (Star Gone Mad), I think RJ's likeliest outcome is either Medium Star or Bad Star. It will be a historical feat if he becomes more than that. Will he beat the odds? Maybe, but chances are slim.

PS: Thread title changed from "Ceiling" to "Upside", the term I originally wanted to use.

PS: Update page 6

Spoiler:

Here are more detailed comparisons for RJ.

RJ at 21 this season is averaging 32.3 minutes per game, 14.9 FGA per game, 24.9 USG, 51.6% TS.

So I looked at guards/wings aged 21 who averaged: M/G >30, FGA/G >14, USG >20, TS between 53% and 48%. Historically, 6 players have matched these criteria.

One interesting thing is that the results I got were sorted by win shares, and RJ ranks at the bottom with another familiar name. I don't really look at win shares personally, but I thought it was interesting, and it corroborates the fact that RJ scores low on every impact metric (which I personally don't put too much stock into, but are hard to ignore due to the repeated pattern).

2000-01 Tracy McGrady .521 TS (101 TS+) (12.2 WS)
1997-98 Ron Mercer .491 TS (94 TS+) (4.0 WS)
2010-11 DeMar DeRozan .530 TS (98 TS+) (3.2 WS)
2010-11 Tyreke Evans .482 TS (89 TS+) (1.6 WS)
2021-22 RJ Barrett .516 TS (92 TS+) (1.5 WS)
1995-96 J. Stackhouse .525 TS (97 TS+) (1.2 WS)

Historically, Jerry Stackhouse appears to be RJ's likeliest outcome, if you combine the stats and the eye test. Stackhouse, as we know, had to come off the bench for the Mavericks to enjoy any real team success in the NBA. He was more efficient than RJ relative to league-average at 21, however, but they share more than a few similarities.

Tyreke Evans is probably RJ's worst case scenario. DeMar DeRozan is probably his best-case scenario, although DeRozan had better tools entering the league and was more efficient at 21.

Likeliest outcome: Jerry Stackhouse
Best case: Demar DeRozan
Worst case: Tyreke Evans

[DOT]

Probably about 10 feet like most people's

Unless he's got a thing for vaulted ceilings, in which case I have no idea.

[Chanel Bomber]

Probably about 10 feet like most people's

Unless he's got a thing for vaulted ceilings, in which case I have no idea.

You can do much better

[TerrenceClarke]

Stack wasn’t a great athlete?





If RJ had young Stack athleticism he would be a stud.

[Crackerjack465]

In your ranking, probably medium star is his ceiling.

I don't see him ever getting to a Luka/Trae level.

[cgmw]

How many of these guys were 20-21 years old in year 3?

[seren]

Jimmy Butler/Paul George type of star. Whatever that category is. That said, he doesn’t look like he will hit that ceiling any soon. I take him as a very solid starter. I don’t think he is making the all star team any soon if ever.

[Chanel Bomber]

How many of these guys were 20-21 years old in year 3?

Good question. Feel free to check the comparisons when they were 21. I've done my part

Some of these players stayed longer in college indeed, which may skew the comps. To what extent is up for debate.

[Jalen Bluntson]

RJs ceiling is over his head.

You're not a huge fan and you're trying to be fair about it? That's cool. Stats and your interpretation of them can become whatever you want then to be.

In real life watching him play and grow the last three years...I see a secondary star. #2 or #3 option. I don't think he'll carry a team but he will definitely help a team win games.

Is he there yet? No. Is this a guarantee he will get there? No. That's his ceiling. I dont see a Lebron/KD/Harden etc in the making here. I see a solid #2 or #3 player on a winning team though. It usually comes down to who the other players on the team are with guys like RJ. He is not gonna will a team t the finals by himself but...he will most likely be Robin type player on a contender if he reaches his ceiling.

[blueNorange]

idk, but in 10 years from now he'll still be on an nba team and getting minutes.

whether it's a star, role player, or rotation player.

[KnixtapeH20]

To say RJ will be a bad star (per your definition rankings) is just asinine.

He's just been given let's say ¾ control of the team only 12 games ago. Doesn't even have full control yet. Still no PG and the kid is 21 years young. Once he puts it all together hes going to LIVE at the foul line in a nightly basis and shoot a high percentage something like 80%+. Mid range gona be wet, perimeter shooting above league average..

Can we let him at least finish the season before we finalize what he will or won't be? I mean yall to conversant about ceilings and floors so go ahead I'm just saying it's crazy

[cgmw]

How many of these guys were 20-21 years old in year 3?

Good question. Feel free to check the comparisons when they were 21. I've done my part

Some of these players stayed longer in college indeed, which may skew the comps. To what extent is up for debate.

I mean you’re the resident RJ expert around here. I figured you’d want to know. Seems pretty relevant to me. For 18 year old rookies, what year do we tend to see the biggest breakout?

In RJ’s case, it’s weird because he’s been a feature player but on a hodgepodge roster for a highly dysfunctional and volatile organization. If I had to put money on it, I’d bet that the longer RJ stays a Knick, the lower his chances become to reach his top potential. In other words, I’d reduce his odds of a high TS% by a compounding factor of f*ckedupedness the longer he stays a Knick.

Also, I’ve never seen an analysis that so closely tied TS% to stardom, but your list makes a compelling case. Never realized efficiency is so closely correlated to the size of a sneaker contract. I take it MJ would be at the top too?

[KnixtapeH20]

RJs ceiling is over his head.

You're not a huge fan and you're trying to be fair about it? That's cool. Stats and your interpretation of them can become whatever you want then to be.

In real life watching him play and grow the last three years...I see a secondary star. #2 or #3 option. I don't think he'll carry a team but he will definitely help a team win games.

Is he there yet? No. Is this a guarantee he will get there? No. That's his ceiling. I dont see a Lebron/KD/Harden etc in the making here. I see a solid #2 or #3 player on a winning team though. It usually comes down to who the other players on the team are with guys like RJ. He is not gonna will a team t the finals by himself but...he will most likely be Robin type player on a contender if he reaches his ceiling.

What do people rank Paul Pierce as a #2? You pair RJ with a KG and Ray Allen hes going to be the same cold blooded killer. Reliable is a good word for RJ once his game matures.

Think he will absolutely become a secondary star on a legitimate title team. He's already learning how to consistently get to the rack and draw fouls despite not having much of a dribble.

Size, frame, confidence, competitive fire, maturity. . All ingredients you want in a star player. I wouldn't bet against RJ just bc he was drafted by the knicks.

[Marty McFly]

he's trending as a Star 2. possibility of being Star 1.

[whocares1]

He could potentially be a medium level star. I can’t see him higher than that until he learns to create offense for himself or for his teammates just by gravity. Right now they are running more screens for him and he’s excelling in that part but he needs to find ways to score when that’s not working for them.

[Knicks Byke]

scottie pippen.

[dakomish23]

So he went from

I love RJ, he just isn't good. At all.

He was by far our most important pick/player since Melo pre-knee surgery.

More important than Randle. More important than KP. More important than Ron Baker.

And we missed completely.

The most damaging side to this is we needed a point guard and Garland - whose game was perfectly tailored for the modern game - was right there for the taking. I leaned towards RJ in the end, but I don't get paid millions to make those decisions either.

This could turn out to be another one of those what if moments. Our drafting from 2017 to 2019 has set back the franchise another decade tbh.

To “bad star”

In 10 games.

At this rate Channel will have RJ on Mount Rushmore by the end of the season.

[robillionaire]

Timberwolves Wiggins

[GONYK]

I think this question is a little difficult because of the nature of RJ's progression.

In some ways, we may feel it's slow with occasional bursts of productivity that give us hope.

But then I look back at how bad he was his rookie year. In some respects, he's already made a historical leap. Based on how bad that rookie year was, he didn't trend to be this productive by year 3.

So if I was speaking to statistical probability based on where he is now, I'd probably say he tops out at a medium star.

But, I do think he's capable of getting to the Jimmy Butler level of player (who I don't see in the same class as Lebron or a healthy Luka).

He's already made a historical leap. When you watch him, there is a lot of low hanging fruit to get to the next level. Some of it is unrealized skill (shooting, finishing, ballhandling), a lot of it is current team philosophy/construction.

What will hold him back from tier 1 is preternatural vision. But I think he can get to Medium/Star 2.

[j4remi]

I don't really like lists like this because they leave out way too many variables to draw the comparisons. Role, Coach, Supporting Cast, Health, etc are all lost in translation despite the fact that they can make a pretty stark difference in how a player's stats look.

There's no algorithm for stardom or growth curves. Players can improve, regress, and change for a number of reasons. Some are easier to predict than others, especially with data to look through; but I think just lining up stats leaves way too much out.

This isn't an endorsement of RJ's ceiling being higher than those comparables he's listed with or anything. I just see this as making an incomplete case. We'd have to get more into the nitty-gritty of WHY the numbers are what they are and HOW he can improve those numbers.

Then we could also question how could the FO/Coach help him improve those things. A pick and pop big would probably help him and a few others out for example even if he remained a mixed bag finishing in traffic at the rim.