OT: Official Mets' 2024 Thread (p. 19)

[HarthorneWingo]

Butto has given up 10 walks in 9.2 innings. That's not going to fly.

You're right, it's not. He looks like he's afraid to throw strikes.

The construction of our roster has two big question marks IMO.

One, how well will the kids plays between now and the end of June? If Baty and Alvarez struggle the next two months and the Mets are beginning to lose ground to the Braves, do we consider trading some of our young "stars" for a big bat or a solid starting pitcher?

Two, the lack of durability and depth in our starting rotation given the injuries and ages of the pitchers in our starting rotation (Verlander, Scherzer, and Quintana)? Peterson's been bad. Megill's been okay. Butto es stinko. Lucchesi is a long relief guy or a replacement for Raley who gave up a grand slam last night.

[Luv those Knicks]

You're right, it's not. He looks like he's afraid to throw strikes.

The construction of our roster has two big question marks IMO.

One, how well will the kids plays between now and the end of June? If Baty and Alvarez struggle the next two months and the Mets are beginning to lose ground to the Braves, do we consider trading some of our young "stars" for a big bat or a solid starting pitcher?

Two, the lack of durability and depth in our starting rotation given the injuries and ages of the pitchers in our starting rotation (Verlander, Scherzer, and Quintana)? Peterson's been bad. Megill's been okay. Butto es stinko. Lucchesi is a long relief guy or a replacement for Raley who gave up a grand slam last night.

I hope not. Trades work out sometimes. Fulmer for Cespedes gave us the big bat we needed, but more often than not, I don't like mid season trades, unless they're small. Pick up a mid level guy or two.

All of our top prospects have a path to play in the majors. For Vientos it's probably DH and for Mauricio, probably 2nd base with McNeil moving to the OF. He might be the one most likely to be traded, so . . maybe in the right offer.

As for the pitching, when Scherzer & Verlander come back and a month or so after that, Quintana, I think we'll be OK.

Interestingly, Seth Lugo, who the Mets didn't believe was a starter, is doing OK so far for the Padres. I don't think he'd have signed with the Mets anyway, because they wouldn't have guaranteed him a spot in the 5 man rotation. The Pads did and I'm glad it's working out for him.

In other news, last year's #14 overall pick is now in MLB's top 100. Jett Williams.

https://sports.yahoo.com/mets-2022-draft-pick-jett-161338730.html

The Mets currently have 5 players in the top 100 with Alvarez, Baty, Parada, Ramirez and now Williams, though Baty & Alvarez will graduate out of the list shortly.

[HarthorneWingo]

You're right, it's not. He looks like he's afraid to throw strikes.

The construction of our roster has two big question marks IMO.

One, how well will the kids plays between now and the end of June? If Baty and Alvarez struggle the next two months and the Mets are beginning to lose ground to the Braves, do we consider trading some of our young "stars" for a big bat or a solid starting pitcher?

Two, the lack of durability and depth in our starting rotation given the injuries and ages of the pitchers in our starting rotation (Verlander, Scherzer, and Quintana)? Peterson's been bad. Megill's been okay. Butto es stinko. Lucchesi is a long relief guy or a replacement for Raley who gave up a grand slam last night.

I hope not. Trades work out sometimes. Fulmer for Cespedes gave us the big bat we needed, but more often than not, I don't like mid season trades, unless they're small. Pick up a mid level guy or two.

All of our top prospects have a path to play in the majors. For Vientos it's probably DH and for Mauricio, probably 2nd base with McNeil moving to the OF. He might be the one most likely to be traded, so . . maybe in the right offer.

As for the pitching, when Scherzer & Verlander come back and a month or so after that, Quintana, I think we'll be OK.

Interestingly, Seth Lugo, who the Mets didn't believe was a starter, is doing OK so far for the Padres. I don't think he'd have signed with the Mets anyway, because they wouldn't have guaranteed him a spot in the 5 man rotation. The Pads did and I'm glad it's working out for him.

In other news, last year's #14 overall pick is now in MLB's top 100. Jett Williams.

https://sports.yahoo.com/mets-2022-draft-pick-jett-161338730.html

The Mets currently have 5 players in the top 100 with Alvarez, Baty, Parada, Ramirez and now Williams, though Baty & Alvarez will graduate out of the list shortly.

You know we're going to get killed this weekend by the Braves. Have you seen the pitching match-ups?

[Luv those Knicks]

You know we're going to get killed this weekend by the Braves. Have you seen the pitching match-ups?

I haven't looked, but man, I don't like the Braves. They seem to aways have talent though.

[HarthorneWingo]

You know we're going to get killed this weekend by the Braves. Have you seen the pitching match-ups?

I haven't looked, but man, I don't like the Braves. They seem to aways have talent though.

So what's up with Canha? He really hasn't done much so far this season and while he's a decent glove, he also has a lousy arm.

[Luv those Knicks]

So what's up with Canha? He really hasn't done much so far this season and while he's a decent glove, he also has a lousy arm.

I wouldn't read too much into it. His K rate, Walk rate and ISO are all in line with last year. His HBPs are down, but small sample size. He lead the league in HBPs 2022 and 2021. 2020 he hit .246 and 2021 he hit .231, so he's not a high average guy. He makes up for it with enough walks and HBPs and enough power to be above average, 124, 111 and 122 OPS. He is what he is. Above average hitter most of the time. I think it's mostly due to low babip this year and he'll be fine. He's never been a high exit velocity type. More of a smart hitter type.

[HarthorneWingo]

Caught a break today with the rainout. Are we playing 2 tomorrow or will, hopefully, this one be rescheduled for later in the season?

[Luv those Knicks]

Caught a break today with the rainout. Are we playing 2 tomorrow or will, hopefully, this one be rescheduled for later in the season?

Rescheduled for later in the season. Easier to sell tickets that way.

[Luv those Knicks]

It looks like Peterson was sent to AAA, so they're shuffling the rotation a bit. Verlander (pitched a few innings in AA recently) and Scherzer (10 game suspension is nearly up) should both be pretty close to returning.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/mets-forced-to-rejigger-bullpen-after-sending-key-reliever-to-il/ar-AA1awZuZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=616f9c60b7bb4e2f98fd3c8e8e3cf46d&ei=16

[HarthorneWingo]

It looks like Peterson was sent to AAA, so they're shuffling the rotation a bit. Verlander (pitched a few innings in AA recently) and Scherzer (10 game suspension is nearly up) should both be pretty close to returning.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/mets-forced-to-rejigger-bullpen-after-sending-key-reliever-to-il/ar-AA1awZuZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=616f9c60b7bb4e2f98fd3c8e8e3cf46d&ei=16

Finally! Meanwhile deGrom pitching lights out in Texas ... for now. Not that I would've signed off on that Texas contract.

[Luv those Knicks]

It looks like Peterson was sent to AAA, so they're shuffling the rotation a bit. Verlander (pitched a few innings in AA recently) and Scherzer (10 game suspension is nearly up) should both be pretty close to returning.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/mets-forced-to-rejigger-bullpen-after-sending-key-reliever-to-il/ar-AA1awZuZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=616f9c60b7bb4e2f98fd3c8e8e3cf46d&ei=16

Finally! Meanwhile deGrom pitching lights out in Texas ... for now. Not that I would've signed off on that Texas contract.

deGrom is probably the best pitcher in baseball when healthy, but he's been pulled early twice already in just 6 starts. The jury is still out on whether he was the guy to keep or if Verlander will turn out to be the better investment.

[HarthorneWingo]

It looks like Peterson was sent to AAA, so they're shuffling the rotation a bit. Verlander (pitched a few innings in AA recently) and Scherzer (10 game suspension is nearly up) should both be pretty close to returning.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/mets-forced-to-rejigger-bullpen-after-sending-key-reliever-to-il/ar-AA1awZuZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=616f9c60b7bb4e2f98fd3c8e8e3cf46d&ei=16

Finally! Meanwhile deGrom pitching lights out in Texas ... for now. Not that I would've signed off on that Texas contract.

deGrom is probably the best pitcher in baseball when healthy, but he's been pulled early twice already in just 6 starts. The jury is still out on whether he was the guy to keep or if Verlander will turn out to be the better investment.

Oh, I did not know that.

Luv Those Knicks for Mets' Thread moderator.

[HarthorneWingo]

It looks like Peterson was sent to AAA, so they're shuffling the rotation a bit. Verlander (pitched a few innings in AA recently) and Scherzer (10 game suspension is nearly up) should both be pretty close to returning.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/mets-forced-to-rejigger-bullpen-after-sending-key-reliever-to-il/ar-AA1awZuZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=616f9c60b7bb4e2f98fd3c8e8e3cf46d&ei=16

Finally! Meanwhile deGrom pitching lights out in Texas ... for now. Not that I would've signed off on that Texas contract.

deGrom is probably the best pitcher in baseball when healthy, but he's been pulled early twice already in just 6 starts. The jury is still out on whether he was the guy to keep or if Verlander will turn out to be the better investment.

deGrom just got placed in the 15-day DL with a sore elbow. Are the Baseball Gods hacking into this website and reading our conversations?

[Luv those Knicks]

deGrom is probably the best pitcher in baseball when healthy, but he's been pulled early twice already in just 6 starts. The jury is still out on whether he was the guy to keep or if Verlander will turn out to be the better investment.

deGrom just got placed in the 15-day DL with a sore elbow. Are the Baseball Gods hacking into this website and reading our conversations?

I'd take credit for it, but sports stories pop up on my feed all the time, so the info is basically fed to me.

[Luv those Knicks]

So 2 games ppd, which is for the best given our current struggles. Scherzer still has to wait 10 games for his suspension and ppd games don't count, but he'll be back soon. 3 more games is it? I don't know exactly.

Bats have been asleep except for that silly 16 hit 9-8 win over the Nats, but really, it was just 3 bad games, so small sample size, and against top 100 prospect Joshua Gray, top 10 prospect Mckenzie Gore and runner up for the last Cy Young Max Fried. I'd like to see the Mets hit a bit better, but bad stretches happen and it was just 3 rough games with the 9 run party in the middle.

So . . . what's going on in the Minors.

Ronny Mauricio continues to hit, .327 with .604 slugging, 6 homers, but just 5 walks to 22 Ks in AAA isn't enough. He's swinging at everything. 22 Ks, a little over 20% of his PAs, is on the high side too, especially for a free swinger. He's got the skills, but the pitch recognition is going to take some time. He's just 22, so he's got time.

Vientos is putting up pin-ball numbers. .372 / .456 / .721. 7 homers, 13 walks to 22 Ks. In the past he's been a slow starter who finished strong, so this is new. He's shown improvement in his weak areas from last year, though 22 Ks in 103 PAs is still a little high for AAA, he's still probably the next call up when they make a roster shuffle. He could take Escobar's spot if the Mets decide to move or waive Escobar, but I don't think that's on the agenda right now.

I'd love to say that a pitching prospect is close, but I don't see one. Not this year anyway.

5'6 Matt Ruddick continues to be the best player on the Binghamton Stumble Ponies. Not going to hit many homers but .321 average, 14 walks in 16 games gives him a .471 OBP. Fun player. We need more 5'6 outfielders. I hope he makes it to the show one day. Probably not this year, but maybe 2024.

6'5 lefty Mike Vasil has some nice numbers. 15.2 Ks, per 9, 1.1 walks per 9, .875 WHIP but giving up 3 homers in 16 innings hurts his ERA at 4.50. Encouraging numbers but I still think he's a 2024 intro. I don't think we see him this year.

Hamel is the opposite. Good era but 7.5 walks per 9 is too many.

The Cyclones have a few prospects.

Kevin Parada (Their #1 prospect after the graduation of Baty & Alvarez) is hitting .213, but it's his first full season in the minors. Give him time.

Blade Tidwell (#5), 3 starts so far. Numbers are soso, K rate is good, but it's early. His first season in the minors too.

And Alex Ramirez (#2) is hitting .294 as a 20 year old. Not lighting up the league, but putting up solid numbers while being the youngest player on the team.

and Stanley Consuegra (#19) might be a sleeper, hitting pretty well. Potential 4th Of type in 2-3 years. . . maybe.

Finally in baby ball (I shouldn't call it that), . . . in low-A.

Jett Williams (#3) is doing pretty well. .241 / .453 / .370 His 15 walks in 16 games gives a boost to his OBP and OPS.

and I still like Jacob Reimer (#15), .283 / .443 / .317 Like Jett, he's walking a lot, but very low iso. Just 19, so it's early.

This article is a few weeks old, from Spring Training, but it goes into more detail on several of these guys and mentions another of interest, Raimon Gomez, who's fastball touches 100. He's raw, and has 9 walks in 7 innings, but the velocity is legit.

https://www.mlb.com/news/new-york-mets-spring-training-prospect-report-2023

[HarthorneWingo]

So 2 games ppd, which is for the best given our current struggles. Scherzer still has to wait 10 games for his suspension and ppd games don't count, but he'll be back soon. 3 more games is it? I don't know exactly.

Bats have been asleep except for that silly 16 hit 9-8 win over the Nats, but really, it was just 3 bad games, so small sample size, and against top 100 prospect Joshua Gray, top 10 prospect Mckenzie Gore and runner up for the last Cy Young Max Fried. I'd like to see the Mets hit a bit better, but bad stretches happen and it was just 3 rough games with the 9 run party in the middle.

So . . . what's going on in the Minors.

Ronny Mauricio continues to hit, .327 with .604 slugging, 6 homers, but just 5 walks to 22 Ks in AAA isn't enough. He's swinging at everything. 22 Ks, a little over 20% of his PAs, is on the high side too, especially for a free swinger. He's got the skills, but the pitch recognition is going to take some time. He's just 22, so he's got time.

Vientos is putting up pin-ball numbers. .372 / .456 / .721. 7 homers, 13 walks to 22 Ks. In the past he's been a slow starter who finished strong, so this is new. He's shown improvement in his weak areas from last year, though 22 Ks in 103 PAs is still a little high for AAA, he's still probably the next call up when they make a roster shuffle. He could take Escobar's spot if the Mets decide to move or waive Escobar, but I don't think that's on the agenda right now.

I'd love to say that a pitching prospect is close, but I don't see one. Not this year anyway.

5'6 Matt Ruddick continues to be the best player on the Binghamton Stumble Ponies. Not going to hit many homers but .321 average, 14 walks in 16 games gives him a .471 OBP. Fun player. We need more 5'6 outfielders. I hope he makes it to the show one day. Probably not this year, but maybe 2024.

6'5 lefty Mike Vasil has some nice numbers. 15.2 Ks, per 9, 1.1 walks per 9, .875 WHIP but giving up 3 homers in 16 innings hurts his ERA at 4.50. Encouraging numbers but I still think he's a 2024 intro. I don't think we see him this year.

Hamel is the opposite. Good era but 7.5 walks per 9 is too many.

The Cyclones have a few prospects.

Kevin Parada (Their #1 prospect after the graduation of Baty & Alvarez) is hitting .213, but it's his first full season in the minors. Give him time.

Blade Tidwell (#5), 3 starts so far. Numbers are soso, K rate is good, but it's early. His first season in the minors too.

And Alex Ramirez (#2) is hitting .294 as a 20 year old. Not lighting up the league, but putting up solid numbers while being the youngest player on the team.

and Stanley Consuegra (#19) might be a sleeper, hitting pretty well. Potential 4th Of type in 2-3 years. . . maybe.

Finally in baby ball (I shouldn't call it that), . . . in low-A.

Jett Williams (#3) is doing pretty well. .241 / .453 / .370 His 15 walks in 16 games gives a boost to his OBP and OPS.

and I still like Jacob Reimer (#15), .283 / .443 / .317 Like Jett, he's walking a lot, but very low iso. Just 19, so it's early.

This article is a few weeks old, from Spring Training, but it goes into more detail on several of these guys and mentions another of interest, Raimon Gomez, who's fastball touches 100. He's raw, and has 9 walks in 7 innings, but the velocity is legit.

https://www.mlb.com/news/new-york-mets-spring-training-prospect-report-2023

Those strikeout numbers for Mauricio and Vientos are obscene. There's no way they get a call up. They won't hit MLB pitching striking out like that in AAA.

[Luv those Knicks]

Those strikeout numbers for Mauricio and Vientos are obscene. There's no way they get a call up. They won't hit MLB pitching striking out like that in AAA.

I wouldn't go that far. Vientos is currently 23 Ks, to 107 PAs, or 21.5%. Mauricio, very close, 24 Ks, 113 PAs, 21.2% But that's against AAA pitching. Lots of players had a 21% K rate in AAA and had success in the majors. Pete Alonso for one, though his AAA numbers were weird. he had a much lower K rate in A+ and AA, and his Ks spiked in AAA and his 52 homer rookie season, then went back down.

Alvarez K's more than Mauricio or Vientos, but he's a catcher, so the bar for hitting is a little lower. They also didn't want to call Alvarez up and only did because of the Narvaez injury.

21% K rate in AAA is higher than ideal, since MLB pitching will probably add 5%-10% on top of that, but it's not in the obscene territory. Mauricio's lack of walks probably worries me more. Vientos is showing like he's made real progress since last year and I think he's next in line to get a look, though he's limited defensively which could slow down his promotion.

[HarthorneWingo]

Those strikeout numbers for Mauricio and Vientos are obscene. There's no way they get a call up. They won't hit MLB pitching striking out like that in AAA.

I wouldn't go that far. Vientos is currently 23 Ks, to 107 PAs, or 21.5%. Mauricio, very close, 24 Ks, 113 PAs, 21.2% But that's against AAA pitching. Lots of players had a 21% K rate in AAA and had success in the majors. Pete Alonso for one, though his AAA numbers were weird. he had a much lower K rate in A+ and AA, and his Ks spiked in AAA and his 52 homer rookie season, then went back down.

Alvarez K's more than Mauricio or Vientos, but he's a catcher, so the bar for hitting is a little lower. They also didn't want to call Alvarez up and only did because of the Narvaez injury.

21% K rate in AAA is higher than ideal, since MLB pitching will probably add 5%-10% on top of that, but it's not in the obscene territory. Mauricio's lack of walks probably worries me more. Vientos is showing like he's made real progress since last year and I think he's next in line to get a look, though he's limited defensively which could slow down his promotion.

I guess I'm still not used to high strikeout hitters. I mean, striking out about 1/3 of times is Dave Kingman level ineptitude. How many hitters can we afford to strike out that often. I don't see how they can be helpful this season. And as soon as Narvaez is heathy, Alvarez will be back down in AAA, unless he starts hitting like the no. 1 hitting prospect in MLB.

[Luv those Knicks]

I guess I'm still not used to high strikeout hitters. I mean, striking out about 1/3 of times is Dave Kingman level ineptitude. How many hitters can we afford to strike out that often. I don't see how they can be helpful this season. And as soon as Narvaez is heathy, Alvarez will be back down in AAA, unless he starts hitting like the no. 1 hitting prospect in MLB.

I don't like high strikeout hitters either, but some of them are effective. As a Yankee, Gioncarlo Stanton has a 29% K rate. His injuries and missed time are a bigger issue than his bat, which is still mostly productive. 127 OPS+. He also had a 27% K rate as a Marlin when he was one of the most feared hitters in the league. Power hitters tend to have higher K rates.

Here's an interesting one. Brandon Nimmo had a 26.8K rate his first 4 years as a met. He's since cut down on that quite impressively. He's also a high walk rate player, so some of those Ks were probably caught looking.

Only one player that I know of has a 33% K rate over any period of time and that's Rob Deer. He was the poster boy of high K rate. 33% is too high. If Mauricio can play good defense and strike out 27-30% of the time in MLB with some power, that works. It's just a little bit on the fringe for a hitter, but he's 22 years old so there's time for him to get better.

Vientos doesn't have the defense, so he needs to hit a bit better and mix in enough walks but he's snowing improvement this year. His numbers are crazy in AAA to the point where I'm excited to see him. He could be our opening day DH next year. Maybe make me stop missing JD Davis, who's another interesting case. As a giant, JD Davis has hit his stride. .868 OPS, 140 OPS+. He has a 33% K rate for the Giants. I get that the Mets were frustrated with him, but they gave up on a talented player too soon.

Oneal Cruz, that young, crazy athletic for a 6'7 guy who plays SS for the Pirates, currently injured, he had an unusually high 35% K rate as a rookie in 2022, but he was still a good player. 108 OPS, 2.3 war over 87 games He needs to cut down on the Ks though, but it's not impossible that he could remain a high strikeout but useful player.

On Kingman, I get it. He was a frustrating player and not very good for the Mets. Low batting average. Didn't draw as many walks as you'd like. lots of Ks, bad defense, but a 115 OPS+ isn't awful, so he was productive, just not ideal. He'd have been better as a DH and maybe as a righty platoon hitter towards the end. The game as changed. At the time, his 26% K rate as a met probably lead the league. Players strike out more than they used to. Pitching has gotten better.

I feel like I'm always writing too much.

[HarthorneWingo]

Great post! Thanks.