Why we need to root against Washington but for Detroit this season

[StlHawksFan]

Obviously the Washington pick isn't going to convey in 2025.

But the 2026 pick has a very good chance if the Wizards manage to Capture the Flagg (or is it Fail for Flagg?). Protected 1-8 means either the Wizards finish with the 9th worst record (34.7 wins was the average over the last 3 seasons -- Wizards were the 10th worst in one of those) or they finish with the 8th worst record (33 wins) someone behind them gets lucky in the lottery (46.56%). Heck it's even possible for them to finish even worse than that and have multiple teams pass them but that starts to get to be a very small probability.

For it not to convey, the Wizards will have to have drafted poorly but then that also means two 2nd round picks in the low 30s. And a 2nd round pick in the low 30s is more valuable than a 1st round pick in the high 20s because of cap purposes (2nd rounders aren't counted against the cap in year 1).


Now let's examine Detroit. It's top13 protected this year but then it moves to top11 protected in 2026 and top9 in 2027. I'm sorry but I just don't see them being this bad for that many years in a row -- particularly if the Wizards are still bad in two years because then it means Detroit may have landed Flagg.

Since 19-20 the Pistons have won 20 (out of 66), 20 (out of 72), 23, 17, and now 14. For them to still be bad in the bottom 9 in 2027 that would be an 8th straight season of fewer than 35 wins. It would be just the 5th time in NBA history for that to happen (Kings did it twice, Clippers did it once, and Wolves did it once). But the Kings and Wolves don't really count because their owners were being cheap and trying to make money off tax redistributions. And the Clippers don't really count because the team was trying to force a move. Detroit just had bad management -- like the Knicks did before this era. And even in the 20 years of darkness we still had several seasons of more than 34 wins.

Pistons next year will have a rotation of:
Bigs: Duren, Harris, Thompson, Reed
Wings: Fontecchio, Beasley, Ivey
Guards: Cunningham, Sasser

I know nobody noticed but Cunningham put up 23-4-8 and he's still just 22.

Can anyone really say that squad is worse than Brooklyn, Washington, Chicago, Atlanta, or Charlotte? How about Toronto? They *could* be a play-in team in the East with the 9th or 10th seed. And then even with, let's say, 30 wins, a win against Toronto and then some luck against Miami puts them in the playoffs and we're looking at the #15 pick this season.

OK that's not as likely but if they still suck this year then tack on another high draft pick for next year. And yet another the year after. They will hit 35 wins one of these days and then NY will have a late lottery pick.

[HarthorneWingo]

Title grammar?

[Richard4444]

Detroit has a better roster in terms of future potential. But I would not be surprised if the Wizards get a better campaign. They may have the 3 most reliable players from the bunch: Brogdon, Kuzma, and JV.

Cade/Sasser
Ivey/Malik/Tim
Thompson//Holland
Tobias/Fontecchio/Klintman
Duren/Stewart/Reed

Brogdon/Bub/Butler
Poole/Kispert/Davis
Bilal/Sadiq/George
Kuzma/Sarr/Baldwin
JV/Bagley/Holmes

[Luv those Knicks]

I think either pick in 2025 is unlikely. 2026 is possible.

[jstudabaka]

So basically we want them to do crappy enough that they get a good pick this year so that they’re not as crappy next year?

[Jeffrey]

I have a bit of hope for Detroit because their new FO was tasked to get them to the playoffs quicker.

[robillionaire]

My plan, I am going to root for the Knicks and will not think about these picks at all. We will either trade them before they convey, or they won’t convey, or they will and we will trade them down after they convey or who knows actually draft some scrub who will never play in the nba like pacome dadiet. Either way, I am not going to spend a lot of time thinking about picks or the draft anymore in the the team’s current state outside of whether or not we can use them in a trade. Your post is very good and detailed but I’m afraid it’ll likely be a colossal waste of mental energy and keystrokes

[StlHawksFan]

So basically we want them to do crappy enough that they get a good pick this year so that they’re not as crappy next year?

Exactly. I think Detroit is good enough to work up to point where we get a pick. But Washington's pick has a shorter horizon so we need them to capture the Flagg.

[RHODEY]

How did Detroit improve?

[sol537]

My plan, I am going to root for the Knicks and will not think about these picks at all. We will either trade them before they convey, or they won’t convey, or they will and we will trade them down after they convey or who knows actually draft some scrub who will never play in the nba like pacome dadiet. Either way, I am not going to spend a lot of time thinking about picks or the draft anymore in the the team’s current state outside of whether or not we can use them in a trade. Your post is very good and detailed but I’m afraid it’ll likely be a colossal waste of mental energy and keystrokes

Yup. I think DET conveys at some point. WAS turns to two 2nd rounders. Both are nothing but trade assets at this point. We got our core.

[thebuzzardman]

I think I'd rather have two Washington 2nd rounders than their 1st rounder.

[StlHawksFan]

How did Detroit improve?

They cycled through 31 players last year so I have no idea who was in their actual rotation but here were their top 9 minute getters last season:
Jaden Ivey
Cade Cunningham
Jalen Duren
Ausar Thompson
Isaiah Stewart
Marcus Sasser
James Wiseman
Killian Hayes
Bojan Bodganovic

Here is their projected rotation this season:
C Duren and Paul Reed
PF Tobias Harris and Thompson
SF Simone Fontecchio and Ron Holland
SG Ivey and Malik Beasley
PG Cunningham and Sasser

Thompson showed some promise last year but he's still probably a year or two away from being a starter. Harris gives them stability and leadership in the frontcourt and is a huge upgrade over Stewart. Reed is an upgrade over Wiseman. Fontecchio is a younger version of Bogie and is much closer to a 3&D player than Bogie ever was. Replacing Killian Hayes with Malik Beasley similarly gives them another upgrade off the bench. Finally they added Ron Holland in the draft who has looked pretty solid so far in Summer League. It's not a playoff team but it's better than the rest of the Eastern Conference cellar. I think they finish 9th or 10th depending on if Toronto avoids the injury bug this season.

[RHODEY]

How did Detroit improve?

They cycled through 31 players last year so I have no idea who was in their actual rotation but here were their top 9 minute getters last season:
Jaden Ivey
Cade Cunningham
Jalen Duren
Ausar Thompson
Isaiah Stewart
Marcus Sasser
James Wiseman
Killian Hayes
Bojan Bodganovic

Here is their projected rotation this season:
C Duren and Paul Reed
PF Tobias Harris and Thompson
SF Simone Fontecchio and Ron Holland
SG Ivey and Malik Beasley
PG Cunningham and Sasser

Thompson showed some promise last year but he's still probably a year or two away from being a starter. Harris gives them stability and leadership in the frontcourt and is a huge upgrade over Stewart. Reed is an upgrade over Wiseman. Fontecchio is a younger version of Bogie and is much closer to a 3&D player than Bogie ever was. Replacing Killian Hayes with Malik Beasley similarly gives them another upgrade off the bench. Finally they added Ron Holland in the draft who has looked pretty solid so far in Summer League. It's not a playoff team but it's better than the rest of the Eastern Conference cellar. I think they finish 9th or 10th depending on if Toronto avoids the injury bug this season.

Man I dont know about Tobias....dude looked very bad last season and he's not getting any younger.

[StlHawksFan]

Man I dont know about Tobias....dude looked very bad last season and he's not getting any younger.

He disappeared in the playoffs. But his regular season wasn't bad. 17.2ppg-6.5rpg-3.1apg

[Luv those Knicks]

So basically we want them to do crappy enough that they get a good pick this year so that they’re not as crappy next year?

Thanks for that. I'd not picked that up though, granted, I didn't read the OP very carefully.

The NBA draft is a spin of the dice, so even the worst team in the league isn't guaranteed immediate help. But it would be nice if we got a couple picks in the teens. Don't know if it'll happen though.

[Luv those Knicks]

I think I'd rather have two Washington 2nd rounders than their 1st rounder.

If we get their first rounder, it could be as low as 9. Unless you think Washington will somehow win 50 games, it'll be in the teens for sure, but that's if it comes over at all.

I'd rather have the first. 2nds are easy to trade for.

[Jalen Bluntson]

Let the chips fall where they may. We need to take care of our own business and worry about winning ourselves. It would be great if one or both convey as FRPs but, it's out of our control no matter how much rooting we do for these loser franchises.

[StlHawksFan]

Reviving this because the Detroit pick conveyed -- to Minny anyway.

But now it's time for us to get the Wizards pick.

This team isn't tanking no matter what people might say.

C Sarr
PF Coulibaly
SF Whitmore
SG McCollum
PG Carrington
Bench: Middleton, Kispert, Johnson, Champagnie

They could win 35 games this season. And that will be enough to pass Brooklyn, Charlotte, and Chicago. If Boston or Indy decide to tank? Tack them on here too. If Philly has injury woes? Yup. They're back in the lottery too.

Suddenly you have a play-in team and a legit shot at the Knicks getting the 14th pick.

[Blockwatcher]

Yea I agree, they tanked and still fell last year. I can imagine a few teams tanking that 2 months ago wouldn’t have been. Utah is going to suck again too. We’ll see where everyone else falls after the next few weeks. I don’t buy the pelicans

[Luv those Knicks]

Reviving this because the Detroit pick conveyed -- to Minny anyway.

But now it's time for us to get the Wizards pick.

This team isn't tanking no matter what people might say.

C Sarr
PF Coulibaly
SF Whitmore
SG McCollum
PG Carrington
Bench: Middleton, Kispert, Johnson, Champagnie

They could win 35 games this season. And that will be enough to pass Brooklyn, Charlotte, and Chicago. If Boston or Indy decide to tank? Tack them on here too. If Philly has injury woes? Yup. They're back in the lottery too.

Suddenly you have a play-in team and a legit shot at the Knicks getting the 14th pick.

The Wiz wining 35 games and the pick coming to us would be awesome, but I'll believe it when I see it. (I said the same thing about Detroit last year, so I've been wrong before)

but I have a hard time naming 3 teams as bad as Washington right now. There's Brooklyn and . . . OK. I'm done. I'd love to get the pick but I'm not optimistic.

At least the 2nd rounder will come over in 2026 and be a high 2nd rounder if the first rounder doesn't convey. Knicks will have their first (unless they trade it before then), the Washington pick and I think, a couple late 2nd rounders.

It's also funny reading this thread and how nobody believed in Detroit except for one poster. - props to them.

Which team will be this year's Detroit? (Don't say Washington. I don't believe it).