2022-2023 Regular Season Game 5: Orlando Magic (0-4) at Cleveland Cavaliers (2-1) - 7pm

[jonbob17]

Easy?!?! I am happy you are not GM. Have you seen Wemby play? Lol. Dude is a generational talent. Shai is a good player but if the magic get Wemby to go along with Paolo and Franz you may be talking about a dynasty. And I believe scoot will be a better player as well.

I have seen Wemby isn’t close to Paolo as a prospect or player. Shai is hungry and ready to win. Let okc have Wemby and Chet

I really don't think you have seen Wemby play, Lol. I love Paolo, I really do. However, we can't rewrite history. It was debate if he should be the first pick. Hell some were shocked he went number one. Half the league is tanking for Wemby. That should tell you something, lol. Shai is a good player but give me Wemby and Scoot easy.

Wembanyama is doing things that look like they are a glitch in the Matrix....BUT Paolo is actually doing things in the NBA we haven't seen in decades. Redraft right now, Paolo is the 1st pick(tier amongst himself) and generational. The FO should get plenty of credit for making this decision.

If for some reason we could somehow trade Paolo for the first pick right now, I wouldn't do it.

Oh and I am not sure anyone is tanking right now. The one team that looked like they were 100% in on the tank, Utah, is 4-1. Another, San Antonio is 3-2. Teams are just playing games and winning or losing based on what happens on the court.

Maybe you could argue the Magic are the only team tanking, as they are the only one with a ton of injuries, and injuries they don't talk about, but even then I think they are just injuries. Tanking is about controlling what players are available to play, either by injury management OR by trading them away.

[pepe1991]

Victor Wembanyama talk is crazy talk.

Sooner you forget about idea that you will win back to back lotteries, better.

It's utterly usless to even entertain it. numerical probability for it is brutally low. I think that probability of same event with 14% proability happening twice is around 0,0028% ( i could be wrong ).

So yea, you are not winning lottery. You might as well start with a plan with objective expetations you are drafting 7th. Good luck convincing free agents to join your ( 3 seasons cumulative) 60-175 team and selling them on winning.

Magic most objective path forward are trades. But for Weltman it's hard so... yea... might as well start scouting 2024 draft.

[MagicStarwipe]

This board is so depressing now. All the fun is gone. No wonder so many good posters have left.

[jonbob17]

I agree with your view of our potential for a big bold move and that we have all kinds of possible angles...I also feel like if it's not this summer, it's time for new FO...With all respect for "patience" and "building organically", enough's enough. The great teams in history (front offices) made bold moves. Auerbach, West, Riley, etc are known for deals and rings, not impressive patience.

Jerry West's big moves:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/executives/westje01x.html

West's only big moves in nearly 20 years were stealing Shaq away from the incompetence of the Orlando Magic
AND
Trading for Kobe, which was Kobe's doing.


And as for Pat Riley, sure he has been a pretty great executive, but i mean convincing guys to play in South Beach rather than Memphis (Or...gulp....Orlando) seems like a pretty easy sell. His best move might have been stepping down as coach and choosing Spoelstra as his successor.

Hammond has now drafted Giannis and Paolo, and traded for Khris Middleton(drafted 39th) after his rookie season where he averaged 6 points a game. They haven't all been home runs, but he's(they) made some nice calls. Let's hope some of these other recent moves go down as huge moves historically as well.

Also this was interesting(known but forgotten), The lakers had the #1 pick in 1982 after winning the title in 1981. The Lakers traded Don Ford in 1980 for Cleveland's 1982 1st round pick which turned out to be the 1st pick used to draft James Worthy. This trade was part of a series of moves that lead to the rule change known as the Stepien Rule, after Cleveland's owner Ted Stepien. (happened prior to West as GM, West didn't hire Riley either)

One other interesting note was that the 1982 NBA draft had 10 rounds.

[jonbob17]

Victor Wembanyama talk is crazy talk.

Sooner you forget about idea that you will win back to back lotteries, better.

It's utterly usless to even entertain it. numerical probability for it is brutally low. I think that probability of same event with 14% proability happening twice is around 0,0028% ( i could be wrong ).

So yea, you are not winning lottery. You might as well start with a plan with objective expetations you are drafting 7th. Good luck convincing free agents to join your ( 3 seasons cumulative) 60-175 team and selling them on winning.

Magic most objective path forward are trades. But for Weltman it's hard so... yea... might as well start scouting 2024 draft.

What's done is done, last year's luck will have no impact on this year's odds of winning the lottery. If the Magic finish in the bottom 4 they will still have a 14% chance of the first pick, or 1 out of 7

[Skybox]

This is the most optimistic I’ve been in a very long time. 2023 off-season is going to be pivotal.

A lot of us went through the post Dwight rebuild and we can see the difference between this one and the Hennigan years.

Back then we got the complimentary pieces first but never the star. Thats why we never got anywhere above a 7th or 8th seed. Now we have the star(s) in Paulo and Franz and are possibly getting a high pick in a draft that clearly has 2 more stars. On top of that, if we don’t get a top 2 pick or we need to go out and build around our 2-3 best players, we have a **** ton of pieces to do that.

If we don’t get Wembanyama or Scoot, we can still push pieces in for another star in summer 2023.

Our own pick (if not worth keeping)
Bulls pick
Denver pick

Expiring contracts worth $57 million assuming below players don’t work out:
Bamba expiring
Harris expiring
Issac partially guaranteed
Fultz expiring

Oh, and the cap is going up 10 million to 136 million so we could have around 50-60 million in cap space to play with in summer 2023.

Seriously, I can’t recall the last time we’ve been in such a good position

I agree with your view of our potential for a big bold move and that we have all kinds of possible angles...I also feel like if it's not this summer, it's time for new FO...With all respect for "patience" and "building organically", enough's enough. The great teams in history (front offices) made bold moves. Auerbach, West, Riley, etc are known for deals and rings, not impressive patience.

First, I am less upset with this loss. I've come to realize, we only have 2 consistent players(Franz, PB), 3 streaky players(Ross,Cole & WCJ) and players we can count on less because of injuries(Suggs, Fultz and JI).
These guys played good enough to win this game last night, just couldn't hit shots. period. Right passes were made, defense was good enough to win.

Now, to the tanking, we have young guys at every position, if you keep tanking you keep drafting over your own players that need to grow(the problem w drafting 18-19y.o.)
At some point you need to put established better than average players around them to help them succeed.
That is why Phoenix is succeeding, and SAC is failing. You can't stay drafting young players.
IF nothing is done with our assets from now until the draft, this franchise is doomed.
Ross - Expiring
These 3 are on our books for $28M next year, all options.
Bamba - Not guaranteed next year
Okeke- don't pick up the option.
G Harris - Not guaranteed next year

With the draft capital we have, we can really get anything done we want to.
Make a trade in season. Plenty of expirings and picks
or wait to Over pay to sign someone like Gary Trent JR with the cap space and use the picks
OR Trade the picks during the summer for a vet.

I like this, especially the PHO/SAC study...we could very reasonably have Gary Trent AND the Lead Guard we need by the trade deadline...I wouldn't be opposed to a solid, if limited life span, vet at PG to complement our young kids. A guy like Mike Conley wouldn't be our PG when we get into serious contention, but he'd get us a few steps forward with decent decision making and shot selection. I'd say keep one of Suggs or Fultz and find them a veteran big brother. Honestly, let someone else try to harness Cole, while his empty stats still project value. Also, if Bamba was going to ride the bench after a season of solid improvement - why did we re-sign him? We're relegating his value to "expiring contract" anyway, he's limited for sure but he could help a team (we just don't need him-apparently)...While I'm not as down on our FO as Pepe, they DO have a consistently frustrating record of diminishing the value of possible assets to zero. I admire decisiveness (even with the occasional bad reading) but clinging to guys we don't truly believe in is just burning money on the table. Patience is critical UNTIL the point of opportunity presents itself. You can never get criticized for the deals you don't even try to make - I guess.

[thelead]

Victor Wembanyama talk is crazy talk.

Sooner you forget about idea that you will win back to back lotteries, better.

It's utterly usless to even entertain it. numerical probability for it is brutally low. I think that probability of same event with 14% proability happening twice is around 0,0028% ( i could be wrong ).

So yea, you are not winning lottery. You might as well start with a plan with objective expetations you are drafting 7th. Good luck convincing free agents to join your ( 3 seasons cumulative) 60-175 team and selling them on winning.

Magic most objective path forward are trades. But for Weltman it's hard so... yea... might as well start scouting 2024 draft.

We don't even NEED Wembanyama. We just need one more great piece. It can be Wemby or Scoot or Whitehead or whoever else looks good. We don't need the #1 pick but a top 5 pick should set us up nicely if we get the pick right.

[Bergmaniac]

Victor Wembanyama talk is crazy talk.

Sooner you forget about idea that you will win back to back lotteries, better.

It's utterly usless to even entertain it. numerical probability for it is brutally low. I think that probability of same event with 14% proability happening twice is around 0,0028% ( i could be wrong ).

So yea, you are not winning lottery. You might as well start with a plan with objective expetations you are drafting 7th. Good luck convincing free agents to join your ( 3 seasons cumulative) 60-175 team and selling them on winning.

Magic most objective path forward are trades. But for Weltman it's hard so... yea... might as well start scouting 2024 draft.

The lottery balls don't have memory. Sure, back in April 2022 the odds of us winning twice in a row were very low, but the first part already happened. The fact that we have already won in 2022 doesn't affect our chances in 2023 unless the NBA is fixing the lottery.

[zaymon]

I liked our lineups better than last time, but rotations are still weird. No Franz for the last 6'40 of second quarter. I am not suprised he cant get his shooting rhytm when Mosley is changing his substitution pattern every quarter its looking crazy so far. Team is fighting every game and we are heavily injured so kudos to coach but he needs to make significant improvement this season.
I am not worried with losing early. Its propably better to lose early and start building momentum in the second part of the season.
Banchero is looking like i hoped he would be. Now we dont have to force ourselves to build around Fultz or even Franz as first option. We can build around Banchero and Wagner with smile on our faces. Propably we should trade for 1-2 option and use Franz as overqualified 3rd option. I am not sure if Banchero/WCJ are that great of a fit. Maybe it would be good idea to use WCJ as a facilitator of the bench while playing Banchero next to Isaac(or his healthy replacement).
I have no idea why Bamba is playing 7 minutes. Lets end his misery and not limit him one minute at a time. Maybe Bol cant play more than 20 right now but its looking strange.
Houstan over Hampton is interesting. I thought Mosley will baby Hampton the same way he did with Bamba. Maybe there is hope.

[PrimeThyme]

It’s going to turn. I’m seeing everything I wanted to and more from Paolo/Franz.

If there’s one thing I know about both guys, especially Franz at this point, it’s thy they are Uber competitive players and want to win. If we stay the course, I think by mid season this will look closer to a .500 win team, though the record will not reflect it.

Too many injuries at positions we were already weak at. We desperately need a Gary Harris or a Fultz to come in an steady the game for our young guys. This has been a pretty brutal starting schedule for a young team with the amount of road games we played, and the matchups do not get any easier anytime soon.

I’m loving what I’m seeing still. Paolo is the guy.

[pepe1991]

Victor Wembanyama talk is crazy talk.

Sooner you forget about idea that you will win back to back lotteries, better.

It's utterly usless to even entertain it. numerical probability for it is brutally low. I think that probability of same event with 14% proability happening twice is around 0,0028% ( i could be wrong ).

So yea, you are not winning lottery. You might as well start with a plan with objective expetations you are drafting 7th. Good luck convincing free agents to join your ( 3 seasons cumulative) 60-175 team and selling them on winning.

Magic most objective path forward are trades. But for Weltman it's hard so... yea... might as well start scouting 2024 draft.

The lottery balls don't have memory. Sure, back in April 2022 the odds of us winning twice in a row were very low, but the first part already happened. The fact that we have already won in 2022 doesn't affect our chances in 2023 unless the NBA is fixing the lottery.

In theory once 14% probabiliy happends, you in new turn still have 14% chance.
But probability of repeating same 14% odds twice indeed is sub 1%.

Pretty sure that only once in nba history, since lottery is implemented, team won back to back lottery. And it was back in a day when worst record was granted 25% chance..

[thelead]

I'm not doing math lessons again. It's always a gamble but we played last year and got a stud... and we're still hearing the same arguments against tanking. It doesn't matter anyway. This team doesn't have enough pieces to win anyway so we can dismiss the word 'tanking' for now. And again we don't need Wemby (14% chance). If we finish with the worst record we'll have a 100% chance of adding a top 5 pick in a good draft with good guard prospects. Good enough for me.

[Vampirate]

You guys have had such an up and down draft over the years.

Got excited for Suggs at #5, got let down, got Franz anyways.

Then got the #1 pick in a weak draft but might've gotten the best player in not only this draft but last years and the next one as well.

Yeah, I think a case can be made Paolo has a higher ceiling than Wemby. The biggest question with Paolo will be mental makeup, defense and how much he wants to improve. He's already an All Star, can he reach Superstar or All Time status? Let's see.

[tooler]

The biggest question with Paolo will be mental makeup, defense and how much he wants to improve.

I don't think that's the biggest question because I think he's been better than advertised on those already. The only major question will be shooting.

I think he has a good chance to be a good shooter -- certainly more than the typical long list of rookie athletes that every fan hopes will magically develop a shot -- but there are never any guarantees.

[Vampirate]

The biggest question with Paolo will be mental makeup, defense and how much he wants to improve.

I don't think that's the biggest question because I think he's been better than advertised on those already. The only major question will be shooting.

I think he has a good chance to be a good shooter -- certainly more than the typical long list of rookie athletes that every fan hopes will magically develop a shot -- but there are never any guarantees.

Actually, I think my biggest criticism will be can he make his teammates better, have a 2/1 assist ratio (my gold standard for decision makers).

We know he can score, rebound and block shots, but is he another copy of Embiid (still an awesome player) or can he literally run an offence?

[tooler]

Actually, I think my biggest criticism will be can he make his teammates better, have a 2/1 assist ratio (my gold standard for decision makers).

We know he can score, rebound and block shots, but is he another copy of Embiid (still an awesome player) or can he literally run an offence?

Agreed in general. That was another one of his strengths in college and one of the reasons why they drafted him. So far they haven't tried to make him the engine like a Luka or anything. We'll have to see how that goes. Still lots of questions 5 games into the season. It will be fun to watch at least.

[VFX]

The biggest question with Paolo will be mental makeup, defense and how much he wants to improve.

I don't think that's the biggest question because I think he's been better than advertised on those already. The only major question will be shooting.

I think he has a good chance to be a good shooter -- certainly more than the typical long list of rookie athletes that every fan hopes will magically develop a shot -- but there are never any guarantees.

Actually, I think my biggest criticism will be can he make his teammates better, have a 2/1 assist ratio (my gold standard for decision makers).

We know he can score, rebound and block shots, but is he another copy of Embiid (still an awesome player) or can he literally run an offence?

I take it as Paolo will look better surrounded with better talent. His teammates will appear better because of how he draws the defense. However, right now there isn't great floor spacing in Orlando. Who is Paolo kicking it out to on this roster? Franz pairs well with him, but that is where the strategy on offense ends.

For as good as Embiid is offensively he is a black hole. I don't see Paolo like that.

[Audi]

This board is so depressing now. All the fun is gone. No wonder so many good posters have left.

Hey, I'm still here.

[Audi]

Victor Wembanyama talk is crazy talk.

Sooner you forget about idea that you will win back to back lotteries, better.

It's utterly usless to even entertain it. numerical probability for it is brutally low. I think that probability of same event with 14% proability happening twice is around 0,0028% ( i could be wrong ).

So yea, you are not winning lottery. You might as well start with a plan with objective expetations you are drafting 7th. Good luck convincing free agents to join your ( 3 seasons cumulative) 60-175 team and selling them on winning.

Magic most objective path forward are trades. But for Weltman it's hard so... yea... might as well start scouting 2024 draft.

The lottery balls don't have memory. Sure, back in April 2022 the odds of us winning twice in a row were very low, but the first part already happened. The fact that we have already won in 2022 doesn't affect our chances in 2023 unless the NBA is fixing the lottery.

In theory once 14% probabiliy happends, you in new turn still have 14% chance.
But probability of repeating same 14% odds twice indeed is sub 1%.

Pretty sure that only once in nba history, since lottery is implemented, team won back to back lottery. And it was back in a day when worst record was granted 25% chance..

Orlando's first when they selected Shaq the probability was 15.15%. When we won the next year and got Webber(traded for Penny + picks) it was 1.52%. So weren't our chances of landing a first even less back then than it would be now?