Tracking the 538 RAPTOR model of the Orlando Magic

[Knightro]

You can tell me yes, he is having season that isn't super -uber-goat-category- level good as previous ones.
But what you can't tell me, that there is data that thinks that those players are better than him offense:
Jalen Brunson
Jimmy Butler
Isaiah Joe
Lauri Markannen
Desmond Bane
Zion
Siakam

or on defense:
Caruso
Suggs
Jokic
Derrick White
Dennis Smith Jr

For crying out loud : player A total raptor 5,6 , player B total raptor 5,7

Player A is Caruso, player B is Giannis. How laughable is that?

It's closer than you think offensively. The only real outlier you mentioned was Isaiah Joe since he's a low usage, low minute player.

Brunson: 24 PTS, 6 AST, 2 TO on .592 TS%
Butler: 22 PTS, 5 AST, 1.7 TO on .613 TS%
Markkanen: 25 PTS, 2 AST, 2 TO on .657 TS%
Bane: 21.5 PTS, 4 AST, 2.2 TO on .603 TS%
Zion: 26 PTS, 5 AST, 3 TO on .652 TS%
Siakam 25 PTS, 6 AST, 2.6 TO on .571 TS%

Giannis 32 PTS, 5 AST, 4 TO on .595 TS%

Like the only real difference between any of those guys and Giannis is the fact that Giannis has a 39 USG% which is No. 1 in the league and the rest of the guys listed are in the 25-28% range. Otherwise they're all high minute, high usage players who are scoring more efficiently and turning the ball over far less.

Now I think Caruso is one of the real outlier types where is defense is being a bit too overvalued by the formula, but I also think Giannis is probably having the worst season of his career defensively (career low steals, career low blocks, career high fouls) because he's using more energy and possessions offensively than he's ever used before.

[drsd]

For crying out loud : player A total raptor 5,6 , player B total raptor 5,7

Player A is Caruso, player B is Giannis. How laughable is that?

All this makes me ask is; "Why is Chicago wasting Caruso?"

He is an NBA average offensive PG and a generational talent on defense. The dude should be starting and logging 30 mpg.

What a joke.

Knightro



Now I think Caruso is one of the real outlier types where is defense is being a bit too overvalued by the formula, ... .

Ummm. No. He is an excellent defender.


..

[Knightro]

Ummm. No. He is an excellent defender.

I didn't say he wasn't an excellent defender, he is.

But is he 10% better than the 2nd best defender in the league? Because that's what RAPTOR says he is.

Is Caruso's defense so good that it exceeds James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Devin Booker's offense? Because that's what RAPTOR says it's worth.

I think in general Caruso's defensive metrics are a little overvalued. He's very good, but I wouldn't say he's quite as good as the formula says he is. I'd put him closer to Suggs in the +3.0 to +3.5 range than I would +5.7 which ranks as one of the five most impactful defensive seasons in the last decade.

[basketballRob]

I think the War score factors more of the overall play. Caruso is 2nd in War on the Bulls. Franz is at 5.5, which is higher than anyone on the Bulls.

Franz is actually 27th in the league.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[eyriq]

Yeah, RAPTOR is great, and when you consider all the tools they built around it like the forecasts and player comps, etc, it's a f****** Christmas present.

It relies on a priori modeling to deal with low data volumes, so Paolo gets smacked for being a rookie. He also gets smacked for being inefficient and for having a poor net plus minus.

[pepe1991]

You can tell me yes, he is having season that isn't super -uber-goat-category- level good as previous ones.
But what you can't tell me, that there is data that thinks that those players are better than him offense:
Jalen Brunson
Jimmy Butler
Isaiah Joe
Lauri Markannen
Desmond Bane
Zion
Siakam

or on defense:
Caruso
Suggs
Jokic
Derrick White
Dennis Smith Jr

For crying out loud : player A total raptor 5,6 , player B total raptor 5,7

Player A is Caruso, player B is Giannis. How laughable is that?

It's closer than you think offensively. The only real outlier you mentioned was Isaiah Joe since he's a low usage, low minute player.

Brunson: 24 PTS, 6 AST, 2 TO on .592 TS%
Butler: 22 PTS, 5 AST, 1.7 TO on .613 TS%
Markkanen: 25 PTS, 2 AST, 2 TO on .657 TS%
Bane: 21.5 PTS, 4 AST, 2.2 TO on .603 TS%
Zion: 26 PTS, 5 AST, 3 TO on .652 TS%
Siakam 25 PTS, 6 AST, 2.6 TO on .571 TS%

Giannis 32 PTS, 5 AST, 4 TO on .595 TS%

Like the only real difference between any of those guys and Giannis is the fact that Giannis has a 39 USG% which is No. 1 in the league and the rest of the guys listed are in the 25-28% range. Otherwise they're all high minute, high usage players who are scoring more efficiently and turning the ball over far less.

Now I think Caruso is one of the real outlier types where is defense is being a bit too overvalued by the formula, but I also think Giannis is probably having the worst season of his career defensively (career low steals, career low blocks, career high fouls) because he's using more energy and possessions offensively than he's ever used before.

Non of those guys sniffs near 30 ppg.
Non of those guys carry near 40% usage rate.
Zion has 4,6 assists on 3,4 turnovers , not 5-3, and as usual, he might be out for a season (again).
Butler is one of 3 different Heat players who average 20 ppg
Siakam's team has been trash.
Lauri's team slipped below .500


Giannis is pivotal part of 3rd best defense in nba. Even if he doesn't block as many shots and does not have as many blocks, take him out and they are straight trash on both ends. Players simply don't attack paint as much, knowing even if they beat Lopez, Giannis is lurking around.
I know for fact that around late December, Giannis was, stats vise, best rim protector in basketball, as he held defensive FG% lowest around rim, by any nba player.

They had one streach of games where they lost Giannis and Middelton, and their offensive rating was 108,6. Worst nba team's offense, Houston, for season is 109.2.


And again, is there anybody who belives Zion, Siakam or Lauri actually have better season than Giannis?
or is there anybody who belives Giannis is 29th best defender in nba ? Or not- top -20 player?



You will have hard times explaning, why, in 9 years of data, that dates back to prime Lebron's years, prime Giannis years, not a single top performances had Giannis, nor Lebron , yet Harden and Jokić are co-GOATs




And you will also find very hard to excuse reasons why Paul George in 2018-19, is more productive, by RAPTOR, than person who won MVP and DPOY that year


Just by looking at RAPTOR data, it simply doesn't add up as logical. Where, when i look some random ESPN's RPM, where i don't 100% agree with everything, things make sense. At least it won't have some random Caleb Martin over 10 allstars.

[drsd]

Ummm. No. He is an excellent defender.

I didn't say he wasn't an excellent defender, he is.

But is he 10% better than the 2nd best defender in the league? Because that's what RAPTOR says he is.

Is Caruso's defense so good that it exceeds James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Devin Booker's offense? Because that's what RAPTOR says it's worth.

I think in general Caruso's defensive metrics are a little overvalued. He's very good, but I wouldn't say he's quite as good as the formula says he is. I'd put him closer to Suggs in the +3.0 to +3.5 range than I would +5.7 which ranks as one of the five most impactful defensive seasons in the last decade.

I agree with all your words.

I would say the major uplift to Caruso's RAPTOR stats is that he is largely playing against other teams second-string. If he was a starter, we would see him as Marcus Smart with a jump shot. Which is exactly what we hope Suggs will become.


..

[Knightro]

Non of those guys sniffs near 30 ppg.
Non of those guys carry near 40% usage rate.

But this is my exact point.

Because Giannis is carrying such a massive load, he’s actually *slightly* less efficient (shooting, taking care of the ball and fouling, not racking up heavy defensive counting stats which weigh heavily in defensive formulas) than he’s been at any point in the last 7+ years.

Giannis RAPTOR ranking by year
2018: 9th
2019: 8th
2020: 3rd
2021: 7th
2022: 2nd
2023: 10th

You’re acting like the formula suggests he’s some pathetic player.

Think about it, Giannis is having a *slightly* down year by his standards and the formula still says he’s the 10th best player in the league this season and all 9 guys guy ahead of him have made at least 3 all-star games.

[pepe1991]

Non of those guys sniffs near 30 ppg.
Non of those guys carry near 40% usage rate.

But this is my exact point.

Because Giannis is carrying such a massive load, he’s actually *slightly* less efficient (shooting, taking care of the ball and fouling, not racking up heavy defensive counting stats which weigh heavily in defensive formulas) than he’s been at any point in the last 7+ years.

Giannis RAPTOR ranking by year
2018: 9th
2019: 8th
2020: 3rd
2021: 7th
2022: 2nd
2023: 10th

You’re acting like the formula suggests he’s some pathetic player.

Think about it, Giannis is having a *slightly* down year by his standards and the formula still says he’s the 10th best player in the league this season and all 9 guys guy ahead of him have made at least 3 all-star games.

You realize Giannis was never that high?

2016-17: Conley, Green, Butler, Westbrook, Lowry, Griffin ahead of him, he was 15th
2017-18 : Oladipo & Kemba Walker ahead of him, he was 9th
2018-19 ( MVP): Paul George, Jusuf Nurkić ahead of him, he was 8th
2019-20 (MVP; DPOY) : 3rd
2020-21 - 7th
2021-22- 2#
2022-23- 10th

This is one of most dominant nba players we have ever seen, and according to them, he was top 5 player twice in 7 years?

i don't know what algorithms they use, but even when he was a rookie and average some mediocre 10-7-2 , Jokić was already top 10 to them (58% TS). It's mindblowing how much that data favorites Jokic over apsolutley anybody else. It's like metric was used by putting all his numbers as point reference and everybody else were adjusted to him.

In one of best years of his life, Lebron James , in season where he averaged 25-7-7, 52% FG, 59% TS, with 9,0 RPM, in year where he was finals MVP... his raptor was identical to.... Rookie Jokić?


That's whole Caruso problem. I don't give a damn that Caruso is , by RAPTOR data MVP and DPOY candidate. Question is: why that thing keeps happening in their carculations and why it can't be fixed? You can't tell me that in 5 out of 7 separated seasons there was between 7 and 15 players better than Lebron and Giannis.
And if it can't be fixed, than their data is just currupted and not worthy of time or being used as reference.

[JoshuaPotter]

Non of those guys sniffs near 30 ppg.
Non of those guys carry near 40% usage rate.

But this is my exact point.

Because Giannis is carrying such a massive load, he’s actually *slightly* less efficient (shooting, taking care of the ball and fouling, not racking up heavy defensive counting stats which weigh heavily in defensive formulas) than he’s been at any point in the last 7+ years.

Giannis RAPTOR ranking by year
2018: 9th
2019: 8th
2020: 3rd
2021: 7th
2022: 2nd
2023: 10th

You’re acting like the formula suggests he’s some pathetic player.

Think about it, Giannis is having a *slightly* down year by his standards and the formula still says he’s the 10th best player in the league this season and all 9 guys guy ahead of him have made at least 3 all-star games.

@Pepe1991 - I think part of the challenge here is you think the majority of people are weighing the Raptor as law. It's not, its an insightful way of player measurement that either adds to or takes away from an eye test.

@Knightro - Agreed, the raptor cannot factor in "carrying a team". Giannis is one of the best players of the current era and by "one of the best" I mean top 2-3 and in many circles easy 1st.

Out of this year to date raptor rating. 8 of the top 10 players in the NBA are on playoff teams. 1 Damian Lilliard is doing great as usual, and 1 Shai who seems to be having a career year. Giannis actually sits at 11. Which to me passes the eye test.