2023-2024 Regular Season Game 25: Orlando Magic (16-8) at Boston Celtics (19-5) - 3pm

[eyriq]

Cole's performances are our swing between loses and wins. We can keep defense at ok level, but on some nights we simply don't provide enough offense to win games.

Games like this is execlly how our playoff games will look like. We can't fix issue of lack of shooting by just playing harder defense.

This is so fascinating. The same trend in terms of splits was visible last season as well. Seems to be clear evidence that he's a critical contributor to wins and his performance is the most highly correlated with team performance.

Why?

I assume because any nba team needs potent scoring from guards to open floor for other position, and when Cole is 15 -5-5 on 60% TS player ( wins) he provides that and opens floor for everybody and makes us less predictable.
When he is off, we don't have many guard options left to create havoc for defense of other teams.

This makes sense. Going to need add some redundancy to this skill set.

[Bensational]

Cole's performances are our swing between loses and wins. We can keep defense at ok level, but on some nights we simply don't provide enough offense to win games.

Games like this is execlly how our playoff games will look like. We can't fix issue of lack of shooting by just playing harder defense.

This is so fascinating. The same trend in terms of splits was visible last season as well. Seems to be clear evidence that he's a critical contributor to wins and his performance is the most highly correlated with team performance.

Why?

Looking at his splits in Per Game is better than the totals. W or L Cole takes basically the same amount of shots, the only major difference is his 3 falls at a worse percentage in L’s and he generates fewer assists in L’s as well.

The big difference is in +/- which is where you see the gap between points produced vs points lost. So it’s defense allowing extra points and Cole missing a couple of shots he’d make in W’s and suddenly it’s a 6-10 point deficit.

[JoshuaPotter]

Cole's performances are our swing between loses and wins. We can keep defense at ok level, but on some nights we simply don't provide enough offense to win games.

Games like this is execlly how our playoff games will look like. We can't fix issue of lack of shooting by just playing harder defense.

This is so fascinating. The same trend in terms of splits was visible last season as well. Seems to be clear evidence that he's a critical contributor to wins and his performance is the most highly correlated with team performance.

Why?

Looking at his splits in Per Game is better than the totals. W or L Cole takes basically the same amount of shots, the only major difference is his 3 falls at a worse percentage in L’s and he generates fewer assists in L’s as well.

The big difference is in +/- which is where you see the gap between points produced vs points lost. So it’s defense allowing extra points and Cole missing a couple of shots he’d make in W’s and suddenly it’s a 6-10 point deficit.

So we need a 15-5-5 60% performance from him to have a good chance from a win. Interesting.

How does this scale for Paulo / Franz?

[OrlDave]

So while the raptor stat is technically gone due to some shifting in the sports reporting world, there is a guy who is keeping up an "unofficial" version of it.

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/nba-estimated-raptor-player-ratings

I've jotted down the Magic main guys.

Paolo is RO: -.3 and RD +.6
Franz is RO: +1.6 and RD +.8 (still +/+ somehow)
Suggs is RO -.3 and RD +2.7 (best guard defender)
Cole is RO -.2 and RD -.2
Black is RO -3.8 and RD +.6
Goga is RO -.6 and RD +3.5
Mo is RO +.9 and RD -1.0
JIng is RO +.8 and RD +2.2 (this guy is a +/+ machine in his career)
JIsaac is RO -1.0 and RD +6.1 (team-high by a lot)
Gary is RO +.1 and RD +1.5
Caleb is -.5 and -1.8

WCJ and Fultz get incomplete so far, but if we want for the 5 game they are...

WCj is RO -5.1 and RD +.5
Fultz is RO -1 and RD +.9

So of the guys who are actually playing, Black (-3.2), Cole (-.4), Mo (-.1) and Caleb (-2.3) are the only ones combined negative.

Even with that bad game, Franz is our best offensive guy. But for our best, that number is pretty anemic. His brother and Joe Ingles are the other two over +.5 and overall we need a ton of help on this side of the ball. Hopefully, Paolo gets there soon. He is up from -1.0 last year.

8 of 11 (10 of 13 if you included Fultz + WCj) guys are positive defenders with JI, Suggs and Goga at beast level.

Regarding the Black v Cole debate, rookies are usually offensive liabilities. His raptor is really looking like Jalen's so far. Jalen was -4.5 and +.5 his rookie year, then he improved to -1.1 and +1.4 and then to his current. I could see Black making similar strides. Cole isn't as bad on D as he appears, but compared to the other guards on the team he's a real and clear downgrade. If his offense were more in line with Franz's number you could live with it. Anyway, just some fun numbers to play with.

[pepe1991]

Paolo isn't really advanced stats darling ,especially based on RAPTOR model.
I got cought by suprise when i saw his TS% is just 55,7%. I expected much higher number given FTA and solid 3%

[drsd]

So while the raptor stat is technically gone due to some shifting in the sports reporting world, there is a guy who is keeping up an "unofficial" version of it.

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/nba-estimated-raptor-player-ratings

I've jotted down the Magic main guys.

Paolo is RO: -.3 and RD +.6
Franz is RO: +1.6 and RD +.8 (still +/+ somehow)
Suggs is RO -.3 and RD +2.7 (best guard defender)
Cole is RO -.2 and RD -.2
Black is RO -3.8 and RD +.6
Goga is RO -.6 and RD +3.5
Mo is RO +.9 and RD -1.0
JIng is RO +.8 and RD +2.2 (this guy is a +/+ machine in his career)
JIsaac is RO -1.0 and RD +6.1 (team-high by a lot)
Gary is RO +.1 and RD +1.5
Caleb is -.5 and -1.8

WCJ and Fultz get incomplete so far, but if we want for the 5 game they are...

WCj is RO -5.1 and RD +.5
Fultz is RO -1 and RD +.9

So of the guys who are actually playing, Black (-3.2), Cole (-.4), Mo (-.1) and Caleb (-2.3) are the only ones combined negative.

Even with that bad game, Franz is our best offensive guy. But for our best, that number is pretty anemic. His brother and Joe Ingles are the other two over +.5 and overall we need a ton of help on this side of the ball. Hopefully, Paolo gets there soon. He is up from -1.0 last year.

8 of 11 (10 of 13 if you included Fultz + WCj) guys are positive defenders with JI, Suggs and Goga at beast level.

Regarding the Black v Cole debate, rookies are usually offensive liabilities. His raptor is really looking like Jalen's so far. Jalen was -4.5 and +.5 his rookie year, then he improved to -1.1 and +1.4 and then to his current. I could see Black making similar strides. Cole isn't as bad on D as he appears, but compared to the other guards on the team he's a real and clear downgrade. If his offense were more in line with Franz's number you could live with it. Anyway, just some fun numbers to play with.

And-1

This site has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over Jokić in WARP. Hard to argue that.

[eyriq]

So while the raptor stat is technically gone due to some shifting in the sports reporting world, there is a guy who is keeping up an "unofficial" version of it.

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/nba-estimated-raptor-player-ratings

I've jotted down the Magic main guys.

Paolo is RO: -.3 and RD +.6
Franz is RO: +1.6 and RD +.8 (still +/+ somehow)
Suggs is RO -.3 and RD +2.7 (best guard defender)
Cole is RO -.2 and RD -.2
Black is RO -3.8 and RD +.6
Goga is RO -.6 and RD +3.5
Mo is RO +.9 and RD -1.0
JIng is RO +.8 and RD +2.2 (this guy is a +/+ machine in his career)
JIsaac is RO -1.0 and RD +6.1 (team-high by a lot)
Gary is RO +.1 and RD +1.5
Caleb is -.5 and -1.8

WCJ and Fultz get incomplete so far, but if we want for the 5 game they are...

WCj is RO -5.1 and RD +.5
Fultz is RO -1 and RD +.9

So of the guys who are actually playing, Black (-3.2), Cole (-.4), Mo (-.1) and Caleb (-2.3) are the only ones combined negative.

Even with that bad game, Franz is our best offensive guy. But for our best, that number is pretty anemic. His brother and Joe Ingles are the other two over +.5 and overall we need a ton of help on this side of the ball. Hopefully, Paolo gets there soon. He is up from -1.0 last year.

8 of 11 (10 of 13 if you included Fultz + WCj) guys are positive defenders with JI, Suggs and Goga at beast level.

Regarding the Black v Cole debate, rookies are usually offensive liabilities. His raptor is really looking like Jalen's so far. Jalen was -4.5 and +.5 his rookie year, then he improved to -1.1 and +1.4 and then to his current. I could see Black making similar strides. Cole isn't as bad on D as he appears, but compared to the other guards on the team he's a real and clear downgrade. If his offense were more in line with Franz's number you could live with it. Anyway, just some fun numbers to play with.

Passes the sniff test. The strong +- guys off the bench mirrors the success of the bench. Isaac & Ingles deserve the credit this data gives them. Gary played really well for a bit before this slump.

Suggs, Franz, and Goga leading +- for starters also pass the sniff test. I do wish Paolo's transformative impact on the game shone through with this data but his efficiency still has a way to go.

This says there is a price to pay for developing Black. Let's see if Fultz can make us less willing to pay it.

[drsd]

Cole's performances are our swing between loses and wins. We can keep defense at ok level, but on some nights we simply don't provide enough offense to win games.

Games like this is execlly how our playoff games will look like. We can't fix issue of lack of shooting by just playing harder defense.

This is so fascinating. The same trend in terms of splits was visible last season as well. Seems to be clear evidence that he's a critical contributor to wins and his performance is the most highly correlated with team performance.

Why?

Looking at his splits in Per Game is better than the totals. W or L Cole takes basically the same amount of shots, the only major difference is his 3 falls at a worse percentage in L’s and he generates fewer assists in L’s as well.

The big difference is in +/- which is where you see the gap between points produced vs points lost. So it’s defense allowing extra points and Cole missing a couple of shots he’d make in W’s and suddenly it’s a 6-10 point deficit.

I assume the Ws are largely home games and the Ls are largely road games. So: what is the mental block on the road?

This is resolvable.

[ibraheim718]

Paolo isn't really advanced stats darling ,especially based on RAPTOR model.
I got cought by suprise when i saw his TS% is just 55,7%. I expected much higher number given FTA and solid 3%

Speaking of TS% what is Suggs' TS%? Can you post it and tell me whether it's below average, average, good, very good, or elite please? Thanks in advance.

[djguevara114]

From the last game thread

I love the heart they play with—most of the time, but this team is missing a true alpha…

Where is your guy tonight?

[thelead]

From the last game thread

I love the heart they play with—most of the time, but this team is missing a true alpha…

Where is your guy tonight?

You really like coming out on the off-nights

Are you really talking about the 21 year old averaging 21 ppg and 7 rpg on 48/38/68 splits? Do you know how uncommon that is????

[djguevara114]

From the last game thread

Where is your guy tonight?

You really like coming out on the off-nights

Are you really talking about the 21 year old averaging 21 ppg and 7 rpg on 48/38/68 splits? Do you know how uncommon that is????

Can’t wait for him to be 24 and you all finally realizing he ain’t a number one….

I’ll just take the criticism til then… His two biggest games are loses…. hmmmmm

[thelead]

Where is your guy tonight?

You really like coming out on the off-nights

Are you really talking about the 21 year old averaging 21 ppg and 7 rpg on 48/38/68 splits? Do you know how uncommon that is????

Can’t wait for him to be 24 and you all finally realizing he ain’t a number one….

I’ll just take the criticism til then… His two biggest games are loses…. hmmmmm

Just not sure what you’re complaining about. We drafted a player worthy of the pick. Is he going to be as good as Luka? Likely not. Is he going to a be a top-10th GOAT type of player? Likely not. Can he get to Tatum’s level? Absolutely. Will he? I sure as hell don’t know and neither do you.

I just find it odd that only show up on off-nights…

[djguevara114]

You really like coming out on the off-nights

Are you really talking about the 21 year old averaging 21 ppg and 7 rpg on 48/38/68 splits? Do you know how uncommon that is????

Can’t wait for him to be 24 and you all finally realizing he ain’t a number one….

I’ll just take the criticism til then… His two biggest games are loses…. hmmmmm

Just not sure what you’re complaining about. We drafted a player worthy of the pick. Is he going to be as good as Luka? Likely not. Is he going to a be a top-10th GOAT type of player? Likely not. Can he get to Tatum’s level? Absolutely. Will he? I sure as hell don’t know and neither do you.

I just find it odd that only show up on off-nights…

Have shown up all last season—not just on off-nights… Have shown up early in the season and even gave credit to say that he was winning me over.. But I’ve been to almost every home game and he just doesn’t have the edge and the leadership to carry a team… That’s my gut… Hope I’m wrong….

[ORLMagicGirl15]

Can’t wait for him to be 24 and you all finally realizing he ain’t a number one….

I’ll just take the criticism til then… His two biggest games are loses…. hmmmmm

Just not sure what you’re complaining about. We drafted a player worthy of the pick. Is he going to be as good as Luka? Likely not. Is he going to a be a top-10th GOAT type of player? Likely not. Can he get to Tatum’s level? Absolutely. Will he? I sure as hell don’t know and neither do you.

I just find it odd that only show up on off-nights…

Have shown up all last season—not just on off-nights… Have shown up early in the season and even gave credit to say that he was winning me over.. But I’ve been to almost every home game and he just doesn’t have the edge and the leadership to carry a team… That’s my gut… Hope I’m wrong….

He is 21 and in his second year. My goodness, let him develop.

[djguevara114]

Damn folks… It’s isn’t about developing… It’s a mindset, a gene, an edge, a dog or mamba mentality… He doesn’t have that… He’s too nice, plays smaller than his stature… You don’t develop alpha tendencies, you either have them or you don’t—he doesn’t have them…

[ORLMagicGirl15]

So, Boston just beat Clippers by 37, our losses combine was 34. Do we feel better about this loss? I know we wanted to win, but, we’re still a very young team.