2024-2025 Regular Season Game 7: Orlando Magic (3-3) at Dallas Mavericks (3-2)

[eyriq]

So this is the disconnect.

A "2010 Carmelo offense" where the guy playing the role of Carmelo has a 59% TS%, a 30% AST rate and just an 8% TOV rate is actually a very good offense.

I think you're hung up on how it looked last year when Paolo was significantly worse and not how it looked this year when Paolo was significantly better.

The first four games literally was the vision the front office had for this team. Their offensive rating was 116.0 in those first four games, which would currently rank 6th in the league.

The had the formula they wanted. Paolo had leveled up to the place they wanted and needed him to be.

Now if your argument is "I don't think Paolo would have sustained it" - that's fine, but I think he would have and here's why.

His gains in the first week of the season were much more shot PROFILE based (more FGA at the rim and from 3PT, less FGA from floater, short midrange and long midrange) and less shot MAKING based (Paolo's FG% is actually worse from 0-3, 3-10, 10-16, and basically flat from 3PT).

Long story short, Paolo wasn't shooting the ball unsustainable hot so much as he was simply taking a lot more shots that are A. easier to make (aka the rim - which also led to a dramatic uptick in FTA) or B. worth more points (3PT).

Paolo Last Year
22.5% of attempts at the rim
23.5% of attempts from floater range
18% of attempts from short middy
11% of attempts from long middy
25% of attempts from 3PT

Paolo This Year
34% of attempts at the rim
13% of attempts from floater range
11% of attempts from short middy
8% of attempts from long middy
33% of attempts from 3PT

Much better and more efficient shot profile this year.

Damn, bravo. This is an incredible analysis.

No, by all respect to Knightro. One is data of a full season, the other of 4-5 games, including one 50 point game screwing it. If you expect Paolo scoring 50 every 4th or 5th game you can project those stats to 82 game. I doesnt expect that.
And even with those stats our whole offense collapsed vs. the 1st seriously good team & defense in Memphis.

He's attributing his increased efficiency to a shift in shot profile (which is sustainable), vs an increase in efficiency on the same shot profile. Focusing on the fact that his mix of shot attempts by location is shifting is an incredible way to demonstrate that Paolo's increased efficiency is sustainable.

[Knightro]

Paolo's raw totals don't matter a whole lot to me. I'm looking a lot more at HOW he was accumulating his numbers than the numbers themselves.

I would be more skeptical of Paolo's first five games being a small sample size mirage if he was just unsustainably hot as a shooter. Shooting comes and goes. Sometimes you're hot and sometimes you're not.

But I don't think it was that. His 3PT% is relatively flat - 33% v. 34% - but taking two additional 3s a game even at 34% is better than taking two additional midrange jumpers at 42%.

Paolo has actually shot the ball a tiny bit worse through the first five games at the rim too compared to last year (70% last year, 68% this year), he's just figured out how to attack the basket more often than last year.

Going from 22.5% of attempts at the rim to 34% is going to lead to a spike in efficiency pretty much no matter what since even bad players make well over 50% (and good players make closer to 70%) of their shots at the rim.

Not to mention that much of an increase in attacking the also leads to a significant spike in FTA.

[Knightro]

And yes, Paolo has made 62.5% of his long midrange twos so far this year.

However, at just 8% of his total field goal attempts, we're talking about only 8 total shot attempts. And he's made 5.

A "normal" amount for him would be roughly 3.5 makes out of 8 attempts, so we're talking about only 1 or 2 fewer baskets made. Not super significant.

[The-Stallion70]

I thought there might be something to the idea that Paolo playing above his ability the first five games and that might have contributed to his injury.

I dont think its unreasonable to imagine how a young guy came out of the gate firing on all cylinders hyped for a contract year ready to make a fortune.

I'm not sure he's a 30ppg guy.... yet. I think he may settle into a 25ish ppg guy this year on improved efficiency.

29ppg 8 and 6 on 59% ts is mvp candidate stuff and I'm just not sure he's there yet.

[eyriq]

That’s kinda the issue in a nutshell.

They are relying on 100% internal development for an entire system on offense and they absolutely refuse to acquire the necessary players to alleviate the bumps in the road it will inevitably hit.

Everything we've done up until now has been working towards the goal of developing Paolo and Franz. I think the first goal was to acquire franchise players, and then once we identified that Franz was him and we drafted Paolo the goal was to develop them. Playmaking was a critical skill to unlock, we heard it all the time. So we left the ball in their hands by design. We looked for defensive minded roleplayers to compliment them. The "system" you are criticizing isn't designed to be an optimal offense, it isn't designed to "win" games, it is designed to be an optimal player development environment. The fact that it is winning games is a testament to how good Paolo and Franz are.

[JoshuaPotter]

I know this span is rough, but I am totally ok with our weaknesses being exposes and the team being challenged without Paolo. This is an excellent visual representation of the "he puts up empty stats" or "his efficiency doesn't contribute to Orlando winning."

These losses are the demonstrative reminder that he is as impactful as we believed. The mere notion that he in fact is a generation player is now potentially not hyperbolic superfans hoping for the best.

Also, the roster minus Paolo needs a moment to adjust from the chemistry hit.

[Bergmaniac]

I don't get the drama, of course we will struggle after we lost our best offensive player at the start of the toughest road trip of the year. And even when Paolo is playing we are one of the teams most lacking in shot creation and playmaking so when he is out things are likely to be ugly against good defenses.

[ORLMagicGirl15]

There is no distracting from this game but some of you guys might appreciate this...

Watch on YouTube

[The-Stallion70]

I don't get the drama, of course we will struggle after we lost our best offensive player at the start of the toughest road trip of the year. And even when Paolo is playing we are one of the teams most lacking in shot creation and playmaking so when he is out things are likely to be ugly against good defenses.

The NBA is an offensive player's league today. Doesn't it reveal something about the management when we struggle so bad with Paolo out?

I don't think we are being unreasonable in expecting more after the struggles the franchise has gone through.

[Bergmaniac]

I don't get the drama, of course we will struggle after we lost our best offensive player at the start of the toughest road trip of the year. And even when Paolo is playing we are one of the teams most lacking in shot creation and playmaking so when he is out things are likely to be ugly against good defenses.

The NBA is an offensive player's league today. Doesn't it reveal something about the management when we struggle so bad with Paolo out?

I don't think we are being unreasonable in expecting more after the struggles the franchise has gone through.

Paolo has been out for 3 games, all of which were away against three of the best teams in the league (the 2 unbeaten teams so far and last year's Western Conference champions) which have really good defences, it's way too early to say we are struggling badly without him, we probably would have lost the 3 games if he had played too with Wendell also out.

[JoshuaPotter]

I don't get the drama, of course we will struggle after we lost our best offensive player at the start of the toughest road trip of the year. And even when Paolo is playing we are one of the teams most lacking in shot creation and playmaking so when he is out things are likely to be ugly against good defenses.

The NBA is an offensive player's league today. Doesn't it reveal something about the management when we struggle so bad with Paolo out?

I don't think we are being unreasonable in expecting more after the struggles the franchise has gone through.

Paolo has been out for 3 games, all of which were away against three of the best teams in the league (the 2 unbeaten teams so far and last year's Western Conference champions) which have really good defences, it's way too early to say we are struggling badly without him, we probably would have lost the 3 games if he had played too with Wendell also out.

Not worried yet. Franz + Paolo + Suggs + AB are not in their prime. For Paolo to go out and us to struggle when he is a stat monster should be the least surprising.