2024-2025 NBA Playoffs Round 1, Game 1: (7) Orlando Magic at (2) Boston Celtics - 3:30pm ET

[Bensational]

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Condensed game for anyone looking for it.

Biggest take away is other than CoJo taking over more of the set up, Paolo needs to get a lot faster at reading the defense and knowing where the passing lanes are. Guy is often blind to the perimeter elbows for some reason. Paolo also needs a kick up the ass on defense, too many times he gives up points with zero effort. It's the playoffs, suck it up. If he's tired from too much offensive load, he should consider using CoJo or maybe make a timely pass to an open shooter.

The amount of times Cole is the closest defender on Boston buckets is alarming. He would have to be scoring 15+ and be perfect from the field to offset how many points he's giving up.

Everyone not named Paolo and Franz needs to study tape to see when Boston's defense is collapsing on Paolo and Franz and where passing lanes open up and make sure they fill that space. Too much standing around from the rest of the team, they gotta make it as easy as possible for Paolo and Franz to find them. And, obvs, guys gotta hit shots.

I wonder if Mosley tries a switch up with the bench unit and runs Goga + Isaac with AB + Harris/Houstan + Franz/PB? Double down on defense but also add a stronger rolling big man in Goga. If our size forces them to play Horford and KP extended minutes then hopefully that helps wear them down.

[Bensational]

Roleplayers propensity to shoot was much lower this game than it normally is. That's just a fact. They were more than happy to move the ball if they touched it rather than shoot it. Shots had to come from somewhere and they came from the alphas. It's actually quite an understandable phenomenon but questioning Paolo and Franz's playmaking or Mosley's gameplan is missing the point. The roleplayers need to step up and be more aggressive.

Both sides have a responsibility to improve and adjust for the future games. Paolo and Franz weren't doing enough to manipulate the defense with their gravity and creating open looks for others. If you're gonna have the ball in your hands as a lead playmaker you either need to do that or go get a bucket. Boston also did a great job of taking away passing lanes, and that's where the role players need to get better at moving into the newly created space for easier passes that avoid Boston strips.

[Knightro]

You're assuming there is a nonlinear relationship between touches and the propensity to shoot and that after a certain threshold is reached the propensity to shoot accelerates with each additional touch.

If this was true then early in the game you'd see lower aggressiveness from role players and later in the game as they touch the ball more and build confidence, or whatever factor you think is driving the nonlinear relationship, the aggressiveness increases.

Instead, the reality is that it's the playoffs. There's more pressure. Roleplayers perform worse on the road because of that pressure. There's even more pressure in Boston. I think this pressure is what led to lower propensities to shoot for our role players.

It's just common sense, man.

If I am an NBA role player and I normally touch the ball 8 times a game in the halfcourt and on average I attempt a shot on 3 of those 8 touches, that's 37.5% of my touches turned into shots.

Then I get into a playoff game and only touch the ball 5 times instead of my normal 8 times.

If I attempt 1 shot, that's 20% of my touches that turned into shots. But if I attempt 2 shots that's 40% of my touches turned into shots. It's literally impossible for me to turn exactly 37.5% of my 5 touches into shot attempts in a one-game sample size. It's either going to be a higher or lower percentage than my regular season average.

When you start making the two sample sizes (touches and shot attempts) smaller and smaller and trying to actually extrapolate things within a one-game sample size, the data becomes far less valuable because you are literally talking about the difference between taking 1 shot versus taking 2 shots.

It's not something you can just blindly chalk up to role player timidness or whatever you're trying to suggest.

[eyriq]

You're assuming there is a nonlinear relationship between touches and the propensity to shoot and that after a certain threshold is reached the propensity to shoot accelerates with each additional touch.

If this was true then early in the game you'd see lower aggressiveness from role players and later in the game as they touch the ball more and build confidence, or whatever factor you think is driving the nonlinear relationship, the aggressiveness increases.

Instead, the reality is that it's the playoffs. There's more pressure. Roleplayers perform worse on the road because of that pressure. There's even more pressure in Boston. I think this pressure is what led to lower propensities to shoot for our role players.

It's just common sense, man.

If I am an NBA role player and I normally touch the ball 8 times a game in the halfcourt and on average I attempt a shot on 3 of those 8 touches, that's 37.5% of my touches turned into shots.

Then I get into a playoff game and only touch the ball 5 times instead of my normal 8 times.

If I attempt 1 shot, that's 20% of my touches that turned into shots. But if I attempt 2 shots that's 40% of my touches turned into shots. It's literally impossible for me to turn exactly 37.5% of my 5 touches into shot attempts in a one-game sample size. It's either going to be a higher or lower percentage than my regular season average.

When you start making the two sample sizes (touches and shot attempts) smaller and smaller and trying to actually extrapolate things within a one-game sample size, the data becomes far less valuable because you are literally talking about the difference between taking 1 shot versus taking 2 shots.

It's not something you can just blindly chalk up to role player timidness or whatever you're trying to suggest.

Ok, how about this. Given post all-star propensities to shoot and actual touches in game one we could reasonably expect a certain number of field goal attempts from each player.

Franz, 44 touches, 50% propensity, expected FGA 22, actual FGA 24, 73rd percentile

Paolo, 42 touches, 55% propensity, expected FGA 23.1, actual FGA 27, 89th percentile

WCJ, 24 touches, 35% propensity, expected FGA 8.4, actual FGA 6, 15th percentile

AB, 19 touches, 40% propensity, expected FGA 7.6, actual FGA 4, 5th percentile

KCP, 19 touches, 33% propensity, expected FGA 6.3, actual FGA 5, 27th percentile

Cole, 14 touches, 50% propensity, expected FGA 7, actual FGA 3, 2nd percentile

CoJo, 13 touches, 29% propensity, expected FGA 3.8, actual FGA 1, 5th percentile

JI, 11 touches, 33% propensity, expected FGA 3.6, actual FGA 4, 59th percentile

Caleb, 9 touches, 36% propensity, expected FGA 3.2, actual FGA 5, 89th percentile

Gary, 5 touches, 25% propensity, expected FGA 1.3, actual FGA 2, 78th percentile

In other words the only players that should surprise us by their unusual passivity are AB, Cole, and CoJo. Paolo and Franz were more aggressive but not shockingly so.

[Knightro]

You're assuming there is a nonlinear relationship between touches and the propensity to shoot and that after a certain threshold is reached the propensity to shoot accelerates with each additional touch.

If this was true then early in the game you'd see lower aggressiveness from role players and later in the game as they touch the ball more and build confidence, or whatever factor you think is driving the nonlinear relationship, the aggressiveness increases.

Instead, the reality is that it's the playoffs. There's more pressure. Roleplayers perform worse on the road because of that pressure. There's even more pressure in Boston. I think this pressure is what led to lower propensities to shoot for our role players.

It's just common sense, man.

If I am an NBA role player and I normally touch the ball 8 times a game in the halfcourt and on average I attempt a shot on 3 of those 8 touches, that's 37.5% of my touches turned into shots.

Then I get into a playoff game and only touch the ball 5 times instead of my normal 8 times.

If I attempt 1 shot, that's 20% of my touches that turned into shots. But if I attempt 2 shots that's 40% of my touches turned into shots. It's literally impossible for me to turn exactly 37.5% of my 5 touches into shot attempts in a one-game sample size. It's either going to be a higher or lower percentage than my regular season average.

When you start making the two sample sizes (touches and shot attempts) smaller and smaller and trying to actually extrapolate things within a one-game sample size, the data becomes far less valuable because you are literally talking about the difference between taking 1 shot versus taking 2 shots.

It's not something you can just blindly chalk up to role player timidness or whatever you're trying to suggest.

Ok, how about this. Given post all-star propensities to shoot and actual touches in game one we could reasonably expect a certain number of field goal attempts from each player.

Franz, 44 touches, 50% propensity, expected FGA 22, actual FGA 24, 73rd percentile

Paolo, 42 touches, 55% propensity, expected FGA 23.1, actual FGA 27, 89th percentile

WCJ, 24 touches, 35% propensity, expected FGA 8.4, actual FGA 6, 15th percentile

AB, 19 touches, 40% propensity, expected FGA 7.6, actual FGA 4, 5th percentile

KCP, 19 touches, 33% propensity, expected FGA 6.3, actual FGA 5, 27th percentile

Cole, 14 touches, 50% propensity, expected FGA 7, actual FGA 3, 2nd percentile

CoJo, 13 touches, 29% propensity, expected FGA 3.8, actual FGA 1, 5th percentile

JI, 11 touches, 33% propensity, expected FGA 3.6, actual FGA 4, 59th percentile

Caleb, 9 touches, 36% propensity, expected FGA 3.2, actual FGA 5, 89th percentile

Gary, 5 touches, 25% propensity, expected FGA 1.3, actual FGA 2, 78th percentile

In other words the only players that should surprise us by their unusual passivity are AB, Cole, and CoJo. Paolo and Franz were more aggressive but not shockingly so.

If only guys hit their exact averages every single game instead of it, you know, being an average of their high games and low games…

[eyriq]

It's just common sense, man.

If I am an NBA role player and I normally touch the ball 8 times a game in the halfcourt and on average I attempt a shot on 3 of those 8 touches, that's 37.5% of my touches turned into shots.

Then I get into a playoff game and only touch the ball 5 times instead of my normal 8 times.

If I attempt 1 shot, that's 20% of my touches that turned into shots. But if I attempt 2 shots that's 40% of my touches turned into shots. It's literally impossible for me to turn exactly 37.5% of my 5 touches into shot attempts in a one-game sample size. It's either going to be a higher or lower percentage than my regular season average.

When you start making the two sample sizes (touches and shot attempts) smaller and smaller and trying to actually extrapolate things within a one-game sample size, the data becomes far less valuable because you are literally talking about the difference between taking 1 shot versus taking 2 shots.

It's not something you can just blindly chalk up to role player timidness or whatever you're trying to suggest.

Ok, how about this. Given post all-star propensities to shoot and actual touches in game one we could reasonably expect a certain number of field goal attempts from each player.

Franz, 44 touches, 50% propensity, expected FGA 22, actual FGA 24, 73rd percentile

Paolo, 42 touches, 55% propensity, expected FGA 23.1, actual FGA 27, 89th percentile

WCJ, 24 touches, 35% propensity, expected FGA 8.4, actual FGA 6, 15th percentile

AB, 19 touches, 40% propensity, expected FGA 7.6, actual FGA 4, 5th percentile

KCP, 19 touches, 33% propensity, expected FGA 6.3, actual FGA 5, 27th percentile

Cole, 14 touches, 50% propensity, expected FGA 7, actual FGA 3, 2nd percentile

CoJo, 13 touches, 29% propensity, expected FGA 3.8, actual FGA 1, 5th percentile

JI, 11 touches, 33% propensity, expected FGA 3.6, actual FGA 4, 59th percentile

Caleb, 9 touches, 36% propensity, expected FGA 3.2, actual FGA 5, 89th percentile

Gary, 5 touches, 25% propensity, expected FGA 1.3, actual FGA 2, 78th percentile

In other words the only players that should surprise us by their unusual passivity are AB, Cole, and CoJo. Paolo and Franz were more aggressive but not shockingly so.

If only guys hit their exact averages every single game instead of it, you know, being an average of their high games and low games…

That's what the percentiles are conveying. Are the low FGAs given the number of touches random cause or special cause? For AB, Cole, and CoJo a special cause is likely. What caused their lower than expected field goal attempts? Big game jitters is my read.