Post#44 » by drsd » Sun Feb 24, 2008 2:41 pm
Let's start with the Center, combo-bigs, and the PFs.
Vazquez is hurting Barcelona, and with a quite large contract by European terms, Barcelona might waive his buyout out of hand.
If I was a betting man, I see Fran in the NBA next year. Whether that's with Orlando is an entirely different story.
Next year Gortat will start getting scrub minutes as he replaces the roster slot of Garrity as the deep-bench PF.
Battie and Foyle will be a good tandem of the bench as two combo bigs able to play PF and C.
Howard will be even better.
Lewis will continue to start at PF unless Turkoglu is traded for a name PF.
Cook will continue as a Garrity+ type guy. An OK backup for Lewis.
Augustine is gone.
So, the thinest positions on this year's team - PF and C - become a roster position of depth. Mostly because of Battie's return and Gortat's promotion from the practice squad to scrub player. And maybe Vazquez' rookie year on the practice squad.
Without a single FA move, the team is OK on the front court.
PF: Lewis, Cook, Gortat, (and maybe Vazquez)
C: Howard, Battie, Foyle
Six or seven bigs. A lot of versatility. Rebounding and shooting can also be found.
......
At PG, Nelson continues to start and Dooling continues as a capable backup. For Arroyo to return, he would have to swallow his pride AND his checkbook. That won't happen. Only for the minimum can I expect GM Smith to resign Carlos. That won't happen. So, if/when he's gone, the Magic will need a Diener type to fill the deep bench. Perhaps Armstrong would be given a look as a solid bench guy and good practice squad player: all at the veteran minimum.
PG : Nelson, Dooling, vet. min guy
OK but not spectacular. PG holds up only with good wing depth.
.........
SG.
Scary here - the position in most need of a total retooling.
Bogans, Evans, and Redick are all backup SGs. Where's the starter?!?!?
The Magic must use all of their cap space, MLE, or whatever money is on the table, to sign the best possible SG. A Jamal Crawford-type guy is the best-possible SG I could imagine the Magic being able to attract. A Carlos Delfino-type might be more realistic. Crawford and Delfino might be upgrades at SG, but not by a lot. So, the end result will be an NBA-average starter. From there, Bogans and/or Redick will have to go. (I am assuming at this point that StM and GM Smith are quite pleased with Evans).
So, a small upgrade at SG is probably the best that can be expected from a straight-FA signee. But of course Bogans et al. could be packaged in a SnT to get a better than MLE type. That's a best case in my opinion. It is clear that a Kevin Martin, Monta Ellis, or Jason Richardson-type would strength the weakness at the other guard slot. GM Smith would need some Magic for this to happen. I will assume that it won't
SG: FA-signee, Evans, Redick looks to be a depth chart. Better than this year. And better is "better."
.....
The SF slot is without any question the surprise of this year. Hedo went from certain-to-be-traded to untradeable in a very short time frame. That said, he and Bogans for a package that included a LaMarcus Aldridge-type would recreate the entire roster. For now, I will assume that such a mega-deal won't happen. With Bogans likely to be shipped off one way or another, the Magic have a depth hole at SF. A hole easily plugged with a vet. min type. There are loads of 10 mpg SFs in the NBA. This should be a snap.
SF: Turkoglu, vet. min guy.
So, with GM Smith doing almost nothing in the off season, the roster would look like:
PG: Nelson, Dooling, vet. min.
SG: MLE-type FA, Evans, Redick
SF: Turkoglu, vet. min.
PF: Lewis, Cook, Gortat, (and maybe Vazquez)
C: Howard, Battie, Foyle
That's 14 or 15 guys. And would be a better team than this year's club. A 50 win team for sure. Add to that a potential move that could include Foyle or Battie, Evans or Redick, Turkoglu, Cook or Gortat, and the Magic could make a major upgrade at PF, and thus slide Lewis to his natural slot. Let's pretend it's LaMarcus Aldridge just to see what that roster would look like. (I will trade Redick, Turkoglu, and Battie for Aldridge and Miles, jut as an example of what the roster could look like)
PG: Nelson, Dooling, vet. min.
SG: MLE-type FA, Evans, vet. min.
SF: Lewis, Miles, vet. min.
PF: Aldridge, Cook, Gortat
C: Howard, Foyle, maybe-Vazquez
So, a mega deal leaves the Magic with less depth, but extreme strength in the starting five. The above team could win 60 games and the Eastearn title, if the starters stayed healthy.
Basically, GM Smith cannot screw up in the off season. Conservative managment efforts makes the Magic marginally better, and fun to watch, but they would not be favored move beyond the Eastern finals. A plausible mega-deal that causes Turkoglu to be shipped for a name PF could create a Championship caliber team.
The future looks good indeed, and the roster has loads of assets to further improve to the coming off season.
Now = the Magic need to learn to win. A second-round effort in the playoffs looks to be a minimal acceptable effort for the current roster.
