State of the Magic

[mattyBoi]

Just by reading that article...You have to get the vibe that Otis doesnt really know what hes doing

He kinda just goes with the flow and has no plan.

[craig01]

I still think it's early for judging team deficiencies or future path's. There is little question in my mind that the current SF lineup is one of a short term nature.

This year however, it was the optimum lineup in that it keeps the best players on the floor.

The playoffs are another story though. If I thought the Magic were to be legitimate contenders this year, I'd be more anxious and worrisome about the future.

Before passing judgment on what will or what won't work in the future, I'd rather let the playoffs expose the weaknesses, as they surely will.

I've saying the Magic need a banger first.....then a 2G....then a PG.

If the Magic make it to the second round this year, I'll know that we will have solid ground to stand on when the time comes to define the roster path ahead. The playoffs are really good about exposing all warts.

[SD2042]

Just by reading that article...You have to get the vibe that Otis doesnt really know what hes doing

He kinda just goes with the flow and has no plan.

There's really no room for improvision when it comes to roster changes in the NBA. I haven't read the article b/c I haven't seen the link to the article. For the time being, let's try to take things in stride, enjoy the fact that the Magic are in the playoffs, and then make more rough draft evals on the team during the offseason.

[eyriq]

Yeah, Lewis at the four has been effective, at least, but the knock on the system is that it won't work in the playoffs. While I'm not sure I believe that, I do wonder how long we could continue using this method and being effective. Eventually, banging inside will wear Rashard down, physically and emotionally. And last time I checked, we are giving him a pretty nice chuck of cash for a very long time. Do we maximize his value and utilize him to the best of his ability? Do we wait until Hedo expires and then try and resign him, thereby having two high-priced SF's on our team? Essentially, while I appreciate the success our current team has delivered, I am looking to max out value and productivity. I don't think our current lineup does that.

That's a good perspective on getting Lewis out of the 4 spot that I had not considered. In fact they may be the overriding factor in any decisions that Otis eventually makes. Unless of course Lewis can do what Dirk has done and develop some more muscle and grit to rebound with the big boys. That is what I would like to see.

[TheRevTy]

I would like to see Shard develop a Bosh or Garnett-esque game, a big man with perimeter skills (they are about the same body type). Trouble is, Rashard is not some youngster developing his game. He's a 29 year old former all-star. He already established his best way to play. If he were 26 or younger, I would be giddy with the prospect of a Lamar Odom type transformation. I just don't know how feasible it is at this stage in his career.

[lovehoops01]

If you need further proof that this is an issue, there is an article in the Orlando Sentinel about the very same thing with very interesting quotes from Otis that echo my sentiments. But I guess he should be sipping mai tais, soaking in this winning season, huh?

No, it is Otis' job to constantly be evaluating this team and trying to make it better. I want HIM to do that year 'round. We're fans. We're supposed to be enjoying ourselves. Sometimes Otis does his evaluations by scouting college players; sometimes by evaluating current players in the league; sometimes by watching what is going on with his own team at practice and during games to see its weaknesses, strengths and chemistry issues. It is SVG's job to get the best of out of them, which, for the most part (except for J.J.) he probably has done.

However, I do agree with your assessment of getting a power forward either through the draft, free agency (if any are available) or a trade so that Rashard can slide back to the 3. He will get too beat up at the 4 to help the Magic in the long run, and they are paying him too much money for that to happen. I have been on record about that since the season even began, hoping that they would have got a legit 4 before the season even started after Tony was injured.

I do not believe that they are going to use Hedo as trade bait, though. I have heard Stan talk enough about playing Hedo some at the 2 to believe they are going to try to keep him around. (They might start him there, and then make rotations so that he can play at the 3 when Rashard comes out and then put in another 2 guard when Hedo comes out to make sure they get plenty of minutes for both guys.)

I doubt Otis can commit to a lot at this point because he's got to see what he might be able to get done on draft night and evaluate what he gets there and what he will need to get done in free agency as a result. I'm sure he has to draw up a lot of different possible scenarios.

[TheRevTy]

Mr. Love of Hoops,

I see your point in that it is Otis's job to do this kind of stuff, but that doesn't stop us from talking about it. I suppose yes, we could sit in the stands and smile and enjoy the ride, but this message board would be a flowery load of sap if that is all we did. I was in no way trying to flame anyone in the Magic organization, just trying to prompt conversation during a lull in the action. It worked.

I say if we desire a permanent starter at PF, we will need to relinquish some value. I saw that value in Hedo; it could come from elsewhere. While your plan of the old 2-3 switcheroo with Shard and Hedo seems to be sound, I still shiver at the notion of our resident Turkish resident playing SG. Why? Because he has played exactly 0% of our minutes at the position this year. Don't you think if he was adequate, he would've gotten at least a little run there? I mean, Mogans hasn't exactly blown anyone's socks off.

While I agree this conversation may be premature, it is better than rehashing another "Jameer isn't a starter" or "JJ should play more" conversation.

I am anxious to see what happens this summer. Because, contrary to popular belief, we can debate this until we are blue in the face... errr.. fingers, yet Otis will do what Otis does, and we can just sit back and watch. Still doesn't stop us from talking about it, though.

[lovehoops01]

While your plan of the old 2-3 switcheroo with Shard and Hedo seems to be sound, I still shiver at the notion of our resident Turkish resident playing SG. Why? Because he has played exactly 0% of our minutes at the position this year. Don't you think if he was adequate, he would've gotten at least a little run there? I mean, Mogans hasn't exactly blown anyone's socks off.

Hey, my last comment was just in response to your comment about whether Otis should ignore the future of the team right now, too.

No, Mogans hasn't blown anyone's socks off, but I think they have seen the need at power forward more this season than the need at shooting guard (which I would have to agree with since Foyle is the backup center and they have needed to keep someone who could score at the other power spot with him on the floor). Hedo has played power forward some this season, too, when Rashard has gone out. Hedo is handling the ball a lot, though, which shooting guards often do. And he played some at 2-guard when he first came into the league with the Kings and they would put him and Peja and C-Webb and Vlade and J.Will on the floor at the same time at times. Now, I'm pretty sure that Hedo has gotten a little taller since then so he might find it difficult to defend the 2-guards now, but I think he has a quick enough first step to play it offensively for at least some minutes every game.

[magicmamma]

We had a SF playing SG last year. Even though he felt well for most the the season, Grant's production was down from the previous season during which he was playing in pain. The stats said our best team had Boguns at sg. By the end of the season Grant was once again in pain from the strain of playing out of position. Back in his natural position, his performance is up and he's healthy.

Hedo is in better shape and younger than Grant, of course, but he's also taller. He's doing well defending SFs and the bigger guards, but how would he do against Jameer, who isn't even one of the quickest small guards?

I see nothing wrong with continuing Shard and Hedo as starting forwards and putting in a real pf when one of them is resting. And if we don't break Tony in the playoffs, we have a guy for the job.

[TheRevTy]

The only problem I see with the current course is that if we do as you say, add a legit big to be the backup, it diminishes the minutes (and possibly the effectiveness) of Hedo and/or Rashard. The reason for this is it minimizes the amount of time we have our starting 5 on the floor. Let's roll out some critical thinking skills.

IF the combination of our best players (starting lineup) is A, but A is inherently flawed because we lack a brute PF, so we develop B (Shard or Hedo at SF, Brute at PF). However, we find that B is not maximizing talent, so we develop C (Hedo at SG, Shard at SF, Brute at PF), yet C is just as inherently flawed as A. So we have 3 flawed lineups, 2 of which require someone playing out of position, one of which does not get our best players on the court.

To pull an example:
Toronto has a distinct issue at PG. They have Calderon and Ford, both top 10 at the position. This means their roster has significant talent. Now, if they play Ford 1/2 of the time and Calderon 1/2 of the time, that means they always have an elite PG on the court, BUT they also simultaneously have an elite PG on the bench, not contributing. They COULD put one of the two at SG, (probably Calderon since he's taller) and they would fare just fine, probably even be a top 20 SG. However, that does not maximize their value and ends up hurting both team and player. It is widely believed they will choose one or the other and then use the value of the other to obtain a different piece.

[eyriq]

TheRevTy

Again, good points. I agree that option B is flawed for the reason you stated, but I disagree about both A and C being inherently flawed. First off this team is on pace to win 52 games this year and this is WITHOUT a banger to come in off the bench and back up Lewis. So obviously something is working in that starting five's favor, and while it is unorthodox it is dominant. As far as moving Turk to the 2 and starting a banger next year, we don't know enough to say whether it is inherently flawed. What you can say is that they are unorthodox and we would be filling positions with players whose skill sets do not necessarily match the traditional models. This can actually be a strength, as we see it being for this team this year.

[TooNice00]

this really isnt that difficult. our starting lineup contends with the majority of teams. Its our bench that faulters. Since one of our weaknesses is rebounding overall (big man) then just have a big man come off the bench for 25 minutes to give us this and even everything out. We already have a positive rebounding differential so having a big man that actually does something off the bench will only increase it. He will spend time with dwight for say 15 minutes and the other 9-10 giving dwight rest lessening dwights inside duties. No need to go messing around with one of the best frontcourts in the nba.

[drsd]

this really isnt that difficult. our starting lineup contends with the majority of teams. Its our bench that faulters. Since one of our weaknesses is rebounding overall (big man) then just have a big man come off the bench for 25 minutes to give us this and even everything out. We already have a positive rebounding differential so having a big man that actually does something off the bench will only increase it. He will spend time with dwight for say 15 minutes and the other 9-10 giving dwight rest lessening dwights inside duties. No need to go messing around with one of the best frontcourts in the nba.

The Roland Rating values for the bench strongly support your hypothesis. There is not a single bench player with a positive Roland. Added to Evans/Bogans with a negative Roland, only four of the Magic starters are statistically pulling their weight.

[TooNice00]

-= original quote snipped =-



The Roland Rating values for the bench strongly support your hypothesis. There is not a single bench player with a positive Roland. Added to Evans/Bogans with a negative Roland, only four of the Magic starters are statistically pulling their weight.

Don't really pay attention to those stats but since you metioned them i took a look and it is really the truth. Even off the topic of rebounding and big men, there isn't a single player on our bench that does anything. The majority of us (orlando fans) don't like anyone coming off our bench from a productive standpoint or at least don't have anything more than a neutral stance on (except for the few redick lovers).

[lovehoops01]

Don't want to pull the thread off topic, but I like Dooling.

[drsd]

Don't want to pull the thread off topic, but I like Dooling.

Magic bench players that have helped the team win multiple games inlcude Dooling, Arroyo, Evans/Bogans (when the other starts), Cook, and Foyle.

THe problem is that the Magic don't have that 6th and 7th guy who comes in every game. And in every game said player is consistently performing.

THe Magic bench has been streaky this year, and the team has won simply because in one game Dooling might be hot, then the next Cook. So, there's a rotation to the 6th man. That's not a stable foundation.

If the Magic go with a new SG and new PF, then Turkoglu immediately becomes a super-6th. At this point, I a not sure he would accept said role.

[lovehoops01]

I said this as part of a post in another thread, but Denton was on the local ESPN radio station today and they were asking about whether Hedo could go back to being a sixth man now. He said that there is no way that Hedo could be pushed back to the bench to be a sixth man now. He says Hedo's just too much a part of what they do and has proved to be too valuable.

[SD2042]

The deal about that is that it's Denton's opinion. I understand what he's coming from considering the success that Hedo has had this season. I guess the questions come down to would Hedo be alright playing at the SG position or willing to play the 6th Man role if it ever came down to one of those decisions?

[TheRevTy]

Basically, the key here is for management to make their decision and stick to it whole-heartedly. They either A.) Choose to continue with Shard at PF and probably bring in some grit to fill the back-up big spot, as well as potentially an upgraded 2. B.) Bring in a starting PF, slide Shard to 3 and Hedo to 2. This move means that 4 we bring in has to be very good at help defense, as a Jameer-Hedo-Shard backcourt isn't exactly the steel curtain. Or finally, C.) Ship one of our all-star SF's for an equally talented 1, 2, or 4. Fill in the rest accordingly.

This thread was meant to discuss those options and which seem the most plausible for utilizing our players best. I chose C. Others choose A or B. I can see the merits all around.

[craig01]

I would bet the Magic choose A....and will settle for just bringing back Battie.

Legitimate help at any of the 3 positions would be good.....let's face it, this team is a 3 headed monster will little depth of quality players.