Lewis: 37.6% chance of surpassing Reggie's 3pt record?

Post #1 » by **Devin 1L** » Wed Apr 9, 2008 12:19 am

Well, according the John Hollinger's formula he does.

OK, so basketball isn't as in love with its records as some other sports -- most notably baseball.

Therefore it's just off the radar screen that a number of today's players are making a bid to become the NBA's record holders in career stats. That's partly because so many players in today's game turned pro directly out of high school, or after just one year of college. Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James and others have opportunities to take over several long-standing career records.

In the odd event Allen doesn't break the mark, several other younger players are waiting in the wings. Rashard Lewis has a 37.6 percent chance of passing Miller, while Jason Richardson is at 29.1 percent and Ben Gordon at 4.6 percent. Those odds will slide, obviously, once Allen is finished raising the bar.

Post #2 » by **TheGlyde** » Wed Apr 9, 2008 1:09 am

Interesting... Ray Allen will make it tougher though... All depends how long Shard stays productive and whether the system remains as it was this year.

Oh and I can't read the article from work (ESPN blocked) :roll:

But Kareem is only #5 on the defensive rebounds list, Karl Malone is #1... Unless he's done some kind of percentage estimate on Kareem's first 4 years (when DRB's weren't collated)

Dwight is averaging about 700 DRB's a year, so even to Pass Malone he would have to keep up his current productivity until around 2020...

Post #3 » by **Devin 1L** » Wed Apr 9, 2008 1:38 am

TheGlyde wrote:Interesting... Ray Allen will make it tougher though... All depends how long Shard stays productive and whether the system remains as it was this year.

Yeah, he acknowledges that Allen will probably raise the bar, but if he doesn't, Rashard's got the next best chance.

Oh and I can't read the article from work (ESPN blocked) But Kareem is only #5 on the defensive rebounds list, Karl Malone is #1... Unless he's done some kind of percentage estimate on Kareem's first 4 years (when DRB's weren't collated)

Dwight is averaging about 700 DRB's a year, so even to Pass Malone he would have to keep up his current productivity until around 2020...

Hmm, I didn't even notice that.

I went and checked the numbers and it appears as though he simply added in Kareem's total rebounds from his first four seasons into his DRB total, which is, well, dumb. I wasn't around then, and I didn't see any of the games, but I think it's safe to say that 100% of Kareem's rebounds in his first four seasons weren't defensive rebounds.

An eyeball percentage estimate would put him in the 12,xxx range.

We shouldn't be too hard on him though, it's probably not actually his work. ;-)

I kid, I kid.

Post #4 » by **TheGlyde** » Wed Apr 9, 2008 1:44 am

LOL@100% of his early boards being added to his DRB...

I read a book that calculated estimated ORB, DRB and block totals for Kareem based on his percentages from when his were counted so thought he may have done that...

The book made a less scientific stab in the dark at Wilt and Russell as well... I think they said Russell would have been the #1 all time DRB and Wilt #1 ORB... with Kareem #3 in both... I'll have to check.

Post #5 » by **TheGlyde** » Wed Apr 9, 2008 1:50 am

I just realised in 2020 Dwight will only be 34 years old... lol... maybe he can get there... obviously anything could happen over such a long term projection though.

richboy · Post #6 » by **richboy** » Wed Apr 9, 2008 6:52 am

Doesn't matter the world will end Dec 21 2012

drsd · Post #7 » by **drsd** » Wed Apr 9, 2008 7:12 am

Lewis might be near 200 a game for the next 3-5 years (if healthy). That big bump in production only helps his chances.

The problem I have is that Lewis probably needs close to ten years of more ball. Only HoF types, and enforcer Centers, play to their late 30s. Rashard is neither.

lovehoops01 · Post #8 » by **lovehoops01** » Wed Apr 9, 2008 8:50 am

drsd wrote:Lewis might be near 200 a game for the next 3-5 years (if healthy). That big bump in production only helps his chances.

The problem I have is that Lewis probably needs close to ten years of more ball. Only HoF types, and enforcer Centers, play to their late 30s. Rashard is neither.

Darrell Armstrong, Lindsay Hunter, Eric Snow, Grant Hill, Ray Allen, Sam Cassell....Those are just the guys who come to mind immediately. I would say that Rashard has a better chance than a lot of guys to play late into his 30s because not a lot of his game is above the rim. Less wear and tear on the knees and back, which is what usually ends up taking guys out as they get older.

I don't know if that stat matters to Rashard, but if it does, good luck to him.

JoeHova · Post #9 » by **JoeHova** » Wed Apr 9, 2008 1:33 pm

lovehoops01 wrote:Darrell Armstrong, Lindsay Hunter, Eric Snow, Grant Hill, Ray Allen, Sam Cassell....

Ray is 32.

Rashard is about 4 years younger than Ray and Ray has made more than 900 more 3s in his career than Rashard. This is Rashard's first year hitting more than 200 3s, Ray has done it 5 times, including the single season record.

Unless Ray retires in the next couple years (which I don't see happening because he's still very effective), Rashard has little chance of passing him.

Post #10 » by **TheGlyde** » Wed Apr 9, 2008 10:43 pm

Well, you say it yourself, Ray is 4 years older than Rashard.

In 4 more years when Rashard is 32 he could (if he matches this season) also have 5 seasons hitting 200 or more 3's and have 900 more 3s than he has now.

If (and I admit it's a big if) Rashard kept up the numbers from this season, at their 32nd year they would both be about even, so it would all be about whatever happened from there on.

Anything could happen though... either could have their shot stolen by Britton Johnsen like Pat did and that would be that.

JoeHova · Post #11 » by **JoeHova** » Thu Apr 10, 2008 3:25 am

TheGlyde wrote:Well, you say it yourself, Ray is 4 years older than Rashard.

In 4 more years when Rashard is 32 he could (if he matches this season) also have 5 seasons hitting 200 or more 3's and have 900 more 3s than he has now.

If (and I admit it's a big if) Rashard kept up the numbers from this season, at their 32nd year they would both be about even, so it would all be about whatever happened from there on.

My point is that a guy who made 200 3s once in a 10 year career is not a good bet to then do it 4 more years in a row. Also, even in this, a down year for Ray, he's made more 3s than Rashard has any year in his career until this year.

I just don't think that Lewis is a great bet to pass Ray, despite the favorite toy saying he has relatively good odds.

Post #12 » by **TheGlyde** » Thu Apr 10, 2008 3:39 am

Well I think he says he may pass Reggie, not Ray...

To be honest, I don't think he has a great chance to pass Ray either, It depends if this is where his career has taken a permanent turn towards being this type of player or if this was a one year abberation... but if he plays alongside Dwight Howard for the rest of his career he is going to get a boatload of open looks and drop a very large number of them in the ocean...

JoeHova · Post #13 » by **JoeHova** » Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:06 am

TheGlyde wrote:Well I think he says he may pass Reggie, not Ray...

To be honest, I don't think he has a great chance to pass Ray either, It depends if this is where his career has taken a permanent turn towards being this type of player or if this was a one year abberation... but if he plays alongside Dwight Howard for the rest of his career he is going to get a boatload of open looks and drop a very large number of them in the ocean...

No doubt he'll hit a lot of 3s and end up high on the all-time list. I didn't mean to start an argument or anything, I'm always just amazed at what kind of pace Ray has put up in his 12 year career.

Ray has averaged 175 3s per year in his career, 2.4 per game.

Miller averaged 142 3s per year, 1.8 per game

Rashard has averaged 118 3s per year, 1.7 per game

Post #14 » by **TheGlyde** » Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:21 am

Yeah Ray is good and all... but he has had some help from various voodoo idols and other underhanded foul play...

richboy · Post #15 » by **richboy** » Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:44 am

In essence rashard will need the spot up 3 to become the biggest aspect of his game for the rest of his career. I don't even think he wants that record. ray and reggie are different kind of players.

mhectorgato · Post #16 » by **mhectorgato** » Thu Apr 10, 2008 6:20 pm

TheGlyde wrote:Yeah Ray is good and all... but he has had some help from various voodoo idols and other underhanded foul play...

Link?

Does this count as an assist?

Post #17 » by **TheGlyde** » Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:56 pm

mhectorgato wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

Link?

Does this count as an assist?

*slams the assist home*

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