The Core: 2017 and beyond

[MagicFan101]

In the end, it looks like we are done trying to lose and hence are unlikely to add stars through the draft. Unfortunately, it looks like we added guys with all-star potential but not super star, franchise building potential. The good news is that we added quite a few of these guys which means 2 of them could be packaged in a trade for a true super star.

Without at least one true super star we are just spinning our wheels trying to make the playoffs with no real hope of making it back to the finals. Therefore, I hope the answer to who gets a max and who doesn't comes down to who does and doesn't get traded for that super star.

[drsd]

Unfortunately, it looks like we added guys with all-star potential but not super star, franchise building potential.

NBA.com/magic has all five of Orlando's starters as in the top-10 at their position. If that were true, Orlando could easily be the best team in the East (or in other words, it cannot be true). But accepting that Orlando has some 7 players that could eventually make an All-star roster sometime in their respective career, wow there is clearly real talent.

The good news is that we added quite a few of these guys which means 2 of them could be packaged in a trade for a true super star.

What is interesting about this is that Orlando could soon be flipping two max talents for one max talent in return. I am in the wrong job!

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[drsd]

Oladipo and Payton are max contract players? Wow.

Both seem certain to get deals well North of 10M, plus. But in the new financial implication of gambling on top of the TV deals, it will be common to see players getting 30M+ contracts. 10M a year is a steal as it projects as a mean salary in the NBA. (currently the projections are at 8M, but that excludes a bunch of money coming soon from gambling, shoes/hats deals, trading cards, etc.: all stuff the players do not get League moneys from today).

Let's project this for 2017/18 if Payton and Oladipo get max or near-max moneys:

Payton 20M
Oladipo 18M
Harris 16M
Gordon 5.5M
Vučević 12.5M

That is "only" 73M tied up on the starters. If the cap swells to 112M, which is about my guess, that leaves a hefty 39M for the bench. That is nearly 4M per bench player. Ridiculous. The "bad" Frye contract actually looks like a reasonable bench-player deal in 2017.

In other words, Orlando can easily swallow the expected starters costs of the 2017/18 season, no matter how ridiculous the salaries are to any individual player. (Vučević will soon be the most under-paid player in the NBA because he "only" makes 12M a year.)

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[TheEnforcer]

Payton and Gordon will have THREE more seasons under their belts when they are up for renewal. If they live up to their potential they will get paid well. Maybe not the max, but 20 mil a year seems likely. Same thing with Oladipo. Also, according to Spotrac (http://www.spotrac.com/nba/orlando-magic/yearly/cap/) Harris's deal drops to 14.8 in 2018, and that is the year Frye and Watson come off the books. So clearly, they are planning on having enough room to sign Payton and Gordon. Assuming, as they project, that the salary cap is 108 in 2017, Oladipo would be eligible for a max contract around 27 mil (25% of the cap). With the Magic's current salaries, they would still be 27 mil UNDER the cap. But lets say he ends up with 20 million a year, and Let's assume Marble,Dedmon and Founier are resigned for something like 3, 5 and 10 mil a year respectively, the Magic would be almost 17 mil under the cap in 2017. With those numbers, heading into 2018, assuming the cap goes up slightly, you would have at least almost 40 mil in cap space still, to sign Gordon and Elfrid. Then, Mario's extension comes in 2019, when Vucevic and Harris's deals expire. Plus, keep in mind they can go over the cap to resign their own players, and will likely linger below the luxury tax, which on a 108 mil salary cap, is something like 127 mil.

Point is, Hennigan has done a really nice job of insuring financial flexibility down the line. If someone doesn't remain with the "core" (I'm calling Vucevic, Harris, Oladipo, Elfrid, Gordon, and Mario the core), it is probably going to be because they didn't fit the team, or pan out (see Harkless), not because the Magic couldn't afford to keep them. However, I don't think the MAgic would keep Dedmon, Marble, or Fournier if someone else offered them crazy money.

[Pushpic]

Payton and Gordon will have THREE more seasons under their belts when they are up for renewal. If they live up to their potential they will get paid well. Maybe not the max, but 20 mil a year seems likely. Same thing with Oladipo. Also, according to Spotrac (http://www.spotrac.com/nba/orlando-magic/yearly/cap/) Harris's deal drops to 14.8 in 2018, and that is the year Frye and Watson come off the books. So clearly, they are planning on having enough room to sign Payton and Gordon. Assuming, as they project, that the salary cap is 108 in 2017, Oladipo would be eligible for a max contract around 27 mil (25% of the cap). With the Magic's current salaries, they would still be 27 mil UNDER the cap. But lets say he ends up with 20 million a year, and Let's assume Marble,Dedmon and Founier are resigned for something like 3, 5 and 10 mil a year respectively, the Magic would be almost 17 mil under the cap in 2017. With those numbers, heading into 2018, assuming the cap goes up slightly, you would have at least almost 40 mil in cap space still, to sign Gordon and Elfrid. Then, Mario's extension comes in 2019, when Vucevic and Harris's deals expire. Plus, keep in mind they can go over the cap to resign their own players, and will likely linger below the luxury tax, which on a 108 mil salary cap, is something like 127 mil.

Point is, Hennigan has done a really nice job of insuring financial flexibility down the line. If someone doesn't remain with the "core" (I'm calling Vucevic, Harris, Oladipo, Elfrid, Gordon, and Mario the core), it is probably going to be because they didn't fit the team, or pan out (see Harkless), not because the Magic couldn't afford to keep them. However, I don't think the MAgic would keep Dedmon, Marble, or Fournier if someone else offered them crazy money.

Good points man. These are my thoughts as well.

[ezzzp]

Oladipo is due an extension October 2016, so what he does this season matters a whole lot.

If Payton is the Magic's point guard of the future, which I do think he is, then the wings must be above average shooters from deep and be have excellent overall efficiency with their touches. Even if Payton's jumper improves, his peak performance is heavily weighted on his ability to penetrate the defense - and that requires spacing.

This is where a lot of Oladipo's value to this roster will be determined. If he doesn't make a significant jump in efficiency and 3pt%, then its going to be really hard to justify a deal higher than Vuc's or Harris' contracts - regardless of the cap jump. Especially with the very efficient Fournier and highly promising Hezonja nipping at his heels.

[ralphie9898]

yeah s to who our core is is questionable. I don't think anyone is a guarantee going forward as their are questions about everyone on our roster and we have to wait and see how everyone progresses and how they fit together and what holes remain going forward. We have a lot of potential but not a lot of answers yet. Plus who knows what opportunities come up in the future to add to this team. I am not big on locking on to anyone and saying they have to be with this team going forward. I think you have to continually have your head focused on looking for opportunities to get better and not just necessarily stay pat with what you have. Of course you can stay with what you have as well if that looks like your best option.

[notguilty]

I truly believe that at the proper time, our more than capable G.M. will make the correct decision(s} concerning max contracts. With a new coach implementing a new system, and his being able to fit players into said system we will be able to determine within a short amount of time the players who will fit and flourish! The rebuild is being done one step at a time, which can be extremely frustrating, but I,for one, am putting complete faith in the front office and the way things are being accomplished. This year should bring a significant amount of progress and that will satisfy me. I can envision the Orlando Magic returning to championship form in the near future!!!!! GO MAGIC!!!!!!!!