Building a deep team vs. superstar team

[Skin]

Looked this thread up after the recent frustration with Oladipo.

I went to the Blazers board and saw one guy made a comment about how he liked our team but it was so much more reassuring to know the team had a direction (Lillard/McCollum) and that they just needed to put pieces around them.

Sometimes I wish our team was built like that, but there's no guarantees there either. Can that backcourt win a championship? Who knows!

It's a telling example too, given their defensive struggles. Because we have "star" in Vucevic with a high PER who could put up big numbers if we went to him more, and he struggles on defense. It doesn't feel like that will do much in the long run.

It's frustrating to watch this team search for a triple-threat closer or even an unbeatable 4th quarter play like an elite pick-and-roll. Our saving grace is all the assets we have and our competitive play this year. There's still a chance to make a trade or attract a free agent. Or Payton develops a shot or Hezonja develops better ball-handling. None of these have a great chance, but at least flexibility gives us more chances.

I don't know. Even with all this really nice winning, I'm still searching for answers.

Yeah, same.

The reason we're searching for answers is because we are winning (while not beating the good teams), and we're doing it by leaning on the guys we know are good supporting cast type players.

We feel like AG and Hezonja have star potential, but we don't know yet. I know I'd be happier winning or even losing as long as those 2 were accelerating their development the way Payton and Oladipo have/had been. I had zero issues with Payton and Oladipo struggling with the minutes they had to work with during their first 2 years. Yeah, the losing sucks, but we saw what we needed to see. It was a period of development and discovery. AG and Hezonja's opportunities are limited right now, and I don't feel like that is a good thing. I mean, Hezonja is still young and he's being given a new chance to learn the PG position, so I feel less anxious for him. But I'm starting to worry about Gordon's development. If we don't start to create opportunities/instruction for him to be successful when he's on the court then we might end up ruining his confidence in a way we crushed it for Harkless. Except AG has way more upside. I wish he would just drive and attack the rim every time he touched the ball. ...and no more up and unders... just go OVER.

If we were winning while developing our most physically gifted player on our team, I'd feel better about our wins, and tolerate the losses.

[tiderulz]

But I'd have felt much more confident about designing that final shot against Atlanta for either of Lillard or McCollum over anyone on our team.

how would you have felt if they had to defend the last shot of another team?

I think that's why you have your Oladipo's and Aaron Gordon's on the team. Same as we've been doing in those situations ourselves this season.

i can agree, we are both in rebuilding situations.

[tiderulz]

But I'm starting to worry about Gordon's development. If we don't start to create opportunities/instruction for him to be successful when he's on the court then we might end up ruining his confidence in a way we crushed it for Harkless. Except AG has way more upside. I wish he would just drive and attack the rim every time he touched the ball. ...and no more up and unders... just go OVER.

i can understand the angst with AG. I am not a full believer in his stardom like some people are, but i freely admit he hasnt been given a big chance to shine. That said, we did NOT crush Harkless. He got playing time and was even elevated above Harris as a starter for half a season. He had plenty of chances and just couldnt bring it consistently

[MagicFan101]

One thing the OP did not account for in his analysis is experience. Sure, those Pistons and Spurs teams lacked a true super star (in the stat sheets... Tim Duncan is always a super star to me) but these two teams were some of the most experienced in the league. Because of the culture of those teams, quality vets took less money to play for a chance to win a title which helped them acquire that depth. We have a young team with many key plays on rookie scale contracts. So this is far from the same depth based strategy those teams used.

I agree that this is an interesting debate but we currently don't fit the championship example of either side. We lack experienced depth and we lack a true super star.

[Magic_Time]

This team is not build around a star. If we had Anthony Davis on this team with the pieces that we have now, rest assured we would be the most dangerous young team in the league and we would be number one in the east right now, yes above Cleveland and yes I said it....

Well I can dream, can i.. feel sad thinking about it. . Smh.

Anyways, still the buildup of this team is beautiful man.. Am more than fine to have a deep team where 7 maybe 8 guys will average double digit numbers for the season and play suffocating defense. .. however, to me we r still missing 2 things. A clutch or closer, and a consistent but long term partner next to Vuc..
Am fine with Vuc as our Center. But a taller, younger version of P. Millsap, like a 6'10- 6'11 P.Mill at PF, will make us really good..

As for our clutch or closer player, that's why am patiently waiting on Hezonja to fully developed to see if he can become that guy for us in the future and even Payton if he end up improving that jump shot to a respectable one.. Believe it or not Elfrid has clutch veins it's just a shame that he's not a good free throw shooter and a decent jump shooter.. at least not yet...

Come draft night, if we end up picking Rabb, that would be great, but if not, I would love to see us making a play for Bobby Portis. . Trade our first round pick and the second round pick for him.. i would even go as far as trading Fournier at draft night on a 3 team trade where the bulls get a player they wanted from another team, and that team gets Fournier for us to get Portis.. o know draft night, when I see him falling as far as he did, I was screaming literally at the screen for Henny to make a trade for him.. lol..
Portis..
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UhSRRNfetU
Am not saying he's that guy we need as our PF.. But he sure looks like the guy we need as our long term PF next to Vuc..

Vuc
Portis 
Harris
Hezo
Elf

Smith / Deadmon 
Nicholson/ Frye 
Aaron 
Dipo
Watson /Napier 

Hell am good with Smith as our backup C for the next 6 years..

[Blue_and_Whte]

There are no little "Star Player" vs "Deep Team" teeny bopper clubs. Why do we always try to create a separation amongst the fan base?

I personally think you need a superstar to win. I don't think we can look at exceptions to the rules and think we can just achieve that because there are way more variables than just how many guys have PER's over x number. Another thing I'd like to add is that the Spurs had superstars in TD and DR early in TD's career, and now again they have superstars in Kawhi Leonard and LMA so I'm not actually sure why they're being used as an example as to why we can win a title on depth alone. Like I said years ago, Harris has hit his ceiling, he's not a superstar. Vooch is good but I wouldn't put him that high and at 25 I think he's reached or is reaching his ceiling. I think Dipo is having an off year but I don't think he'll be a superstar. AG and Henzonja I'm not sure yet because its way early but I do know that we need a superstar or we'll be 1st maybe 2nd round fodder at best.

[Blue_and_Whte]

One thing the OP did not account for in his analysis is experience. Sure, those Pistons and Spurs teams lacked a true super star (in the stat sheets... Tim Duncan is always a super star to me) but these two teams were some of the most experienced in the league. Because of the culture of those teams, quality vets took less money to play for a chance to win a title which helped them acquire that depth. We have a young team with many key plays on rookie scale contracts. So this is far from the same depth based strategy those teams used.

I agree that this is an interesting debate but we currently don't fit the championship example of either side. We lack experienced depth and we lack a true super star.

TD is one of the greatest players of all time and one of the best if not THEE best PF of our generation. The Spurs HAD superstars. imo the only team that didn't was that Pistons team.

[flying_mollusk]

There are no little "Star Player" vs "Deep Team" teeny bopper clubs. Why do we always try to create a separation amongst the fan base?

I personally think you need a superstar to win. I don't think we can look at exceptions to the rules and think we can just achieve that because there are way more variables than just how many guys have PER's over x number. Another thing I'd like to add is that the Spurs had superstars in TD and DR early in TD's career, and now again they have superstars in Kawhi Leonard and LMA so I'm not actually sure why they're being used as an example as to why we can win a title on depth alone. Like I said years ago, Harris has hit his ceiling, he's not a superstar. Vooch is good but I wouldn't put him that high and at 25 I think he's reached or is reaching his ceiling. I think Dipo is having an off year but I don't think he'll be a superstar. AG and Henzonja I'm not sure yet because its way early but I do know that we need a superstar or we'll be 1st maybe 2nd round fodder at best.

The 13-14 Spurs team is the example I gave, and that team was in the in-between stage. Kawhi wasnt the star is he today, and TD had started his decline away from being a star. Hence the metric of 15-22 PER. That team absolutely annihilated the Heat in the finals.

I guess my point is that it is that rare to accumulate that much talent at the 1-8 spots, but that we actually might not be that far from doing it.

[flying_mollusk]

Agreed, excellent post!

It got me thinking about the high end of the PER. That Spurs team had 4 guys within a point of 20 PER or higher, I'm guessing that's just as important as the other 4 guys who were at 15 PER on the squad.

How close are we to having multiple players at 20 PER?

That might be tougher. Really only Vuc has emerged as a 20 PER player. I could see Gordon getting there, and maybe Hezonja. I see Harris-VO-Elf landing between 16-18.

[ezzzp]

For the first time since 2012/13 season, the Magic have 5 players above the league average 15 PER line:

Vuc 22.5
Harris 17.6
Gordon 15.8
EP 15.2
Oladipo 15.1

and Fournier is at 14.5