Game Thread (Magic @ Mavs 3/1/16)

[Dennis Reynolds]

Boston owns Brooklyn's picks for the next 3 years and considering they are already a playoff team,they are surely in a better position than us. Of course there's a chance they don't draft good players and we develop a superstar or 2 but there is pretty much no one who would rather take our situation over theirs at the moment.

[ezzzp]

Plus, I just noticed:

- Boston has Brooklyns THIS YEARs 1st Round Pick!
And
- Boston also has Dallas THIS YEARs 1st Round Pick! (Top 7 Protected)
And
- Bostons own Pick THIS YEAR

And

Already have a solid PG: Isaiah/SG: Avery/SF: Crowder and up to $50 plus mil in cap space and a plethora of young bigs on their team.

Future is definitely brighter in Boston.

Boston doesn't have $50m in cap room...and their future isn't brighter than the Magic's, its only more hyped by the media...

Orlando Depth Chart:
Payton | Oladipo | Fournier | Gordon | Vucevic
Jennings | Watson | Hezonja | Ilyasova | Smith

Boston Depth Chart:
Thomas | Bradley | Crowder | Johnson | Sullinger
Smart | Turner | Jerebko | Olynick

Starters:
Thomas > Payton
Bradley < Oladipo
Crowder > Fournier
Johnson < Gordon
Sullinger < Vucevic

Bench:
Smart + Olynick = Hezonja

Picks:
#4 / #21 / #23 > #11

Cap Space:
* Max salary contracts are Jr: $23.0m, Mid-Tier $27.6m and Vet $32.2m
* Most of the top free agents (Al Horford, Durant or Conley) are eligible for the Mid Tier max.

• Boston Celtics only have enough to offer one maximum salary contract. The Celtics have $51m in guaranteed salary, so they will have a maximum of $41 million in cap space. For Boston to sign one mid-tier free agent, they have to renounce one starter.

To have that full amount Boston would need to waive and renounce all their free Agents and team options: Sullinger (restricted), Turner (unrestricted), Johnson (TO) and Jerebko (TO). To acquire one of the top free agents (mid tier max), Boston would have to renounce all but $13.4m of all their free agents/team options. That means they would have to renounce a combination of back up players + either Amir Johnson or Jared Sullinger.

< • Orlando Magic have enough to offer two maximum salary contracts. The Magic have $36m in guaranteed salary. So they have a maximum of $56 million in cap space. Orlando has enough for one mid tier max contract + one jr. max contract...and still keep Fournier.

The Magic can waive and renounce all their free agents and team options, except for Fournier's (4.6m cap hold) leaving them with $52.4m in cap space. They can add two max contracts without losing any of their core or Fournier.

[Xatticus]

Your dreaming if you think a rim protector is all you need for a good defense ! Doesn't matter how good a "rim protector " someone is , if they have to help out on defense , it doesn't matter !!!!!!!

This. Vucevic has become a much better defender. Our defensive problems are much deeper than his inability to protect the rim. Fournier is a turnstile, and all of our young players have lapses that strain the team defense. Vucevic's increased block rate is a direct result of his improvement in rotating to help.

[Xatticus]

They did make the Playoffs last year and will this year. They are a few years older and have that experience. But, they also have a great coach. We will see if Skiles can have the same effect over a few years as well. They sure do play solid defense in Boston tho.

He will be appreciated in time, but I'm already convinced that he is the best coach in the NBA other than Popovich. In my opinion, that team with almost any other coach in the league is struggling to make the playoffs.

[ezzzp]

They did make the Playoffs last year and will this year. They are a few years older and have that experience. But, they also have a great coach. We will see if Skiles can have the same effect over a few years as well. They sure do play solid defense in Boston tho.

He will be appreciated in time, but I'm already convinced that he is the best coach in the NBA other than Popovich. In my opinion, that team with almost any other coach in the league is struggling to make the playoffs.

That's a bit premature no?

He has never won a playoff series. He's operating without expectations; that is the hardest step for a team to take - ask Milwaukee and Phoenix about those. Once that first big paycheck is cut - everything changes. Right now he has a bunch of middle of the road players buying in...add a high salary player into that mix and the dynamic entirely changes. This upcoming free agency will change what has been a very safe space for him, no injuries, no star egos, no salary expectations (since they are near lowest $ salaries in NBA)...and a very friendly Boston media.

[Xatticus]

Maybe, but what he has done thus far is exceedingly impressive given the talent he has had to work with. Last year's team had no business making the playoffs, and his collegiate coaching record at Butler was exceptional.

[ezzzp]

Maybe, but what he has done thus far is exceedingly impressive given the talent he has had to work with. Last year's team had no business making the playoffs, and his collegiate coaching record at Butler was exceptional.

What exactly is it that he has he done?

• He has never won a single playoff game.
• This is his first ever NBA season above .500

• His first year he led a veteran team to a record of 25 - 57
• His second year he coached a team composed of veterans + four <23 players to a record of 40 - 42. That team snuck into the playoffs in the weakest NBA conference in two decades. They got swept.
• His third year his team is 37-25, big deal. They've had the 4th easiest schedule in the NBA. None of their starters have missed any time for injury and of their key reserves only Smart missed a month.

I'm just not seeing what exactly is so exceedingly impressive about that.

Brad Stevens in the NBA = .451 (102 wins)
Scott Skiles in the NBA = .502 (470 wins)

[Xatticus]

What exactly is it that he has he done?

• He has never won a single playoff game.
• This is his first ever NBA season above .500

• His first year he led a veteran team to a record of 25 - 57
• His second year he coached a team composed of veterans + four <23 players to a record of 40 - 42. That team snuck into the playoffs in the weakest NBA conference in two decades. They got swept.
• His third year his team is 37-25, big deal. They've had the 4th easiest schedule in the NBA. None of their starters have missed any time for injury and of their key reserves only Smart missed a month.

I'm just not seeing what exactly is so exceedingly impressive about that.

Brad Stevens in the NBA = .451 (102 wins)
Scott Skiles in the NBA = .502 (470 wins)

I will preface by stating that I have a background in economics and math/statistics (meaning I majored or minored in these fields in college). This is not for the purposes of legitimizing my arguments, but rather so you can avoid using simplistic or deceptive methods addressed specifically at me in the future. I generally ignore the use of misleading statistics as there is a requisite understanding required to even interpret them, but I will respond if they are used against an argument I make.

SOS is inconsequential in the NBA. At least this late in the season. There is some merit in suggesting success or failure within a short window or early in the season, when there is a significant deviation in the difficulty of particular schedules. But at this point in the year, any differences are so minute as to not merit consideration. Teams don't play identical schedules, but very near to it, at least within their own conferences.

Your distinction between veteran and non-veteran rosters is a thinly veiled attempt to negotiate the obvious talent deficit of their roster following their rebuild. Precisely which veterans were supposed to lead Boston to victories? Brandon Bass? Jeff Green? Jordan Crawford? An injured Rajon Rondo? The remains of Gerald Wallace?

That 25-57 first-year veteran team had a 27.5 over/under before Rajon Rondo was lost for most of the season.

That second-year veteran team had an over/under of 26.5.

This season's over under was 42.5 (obviously bolstered by last year's over-achievement).

Context matters. Comparing Skiles and Stevens based upon win percentage is comparing apples to orangutans. Skiles started his head coaching career by taking over a very talented Suns team. He has since proven that he is a middling NBA re-tread with a poor player development history.

This Boston team has three former lottery picks on the roster:
Marcus Smart (6)
Kelly Olynyk (13)
Evan Turner (2)

And yet they sit a comfortable third in the Eastern Conference right now.

[BadMofoPimp]

Plus, I just noticed:

- Boston has Brooklyns THIS YEARs 1st Round Pick!
And
- Boston also has Dallas THIS YEARs 1st Round Pick! (Top 7 Protected)
And
- Bostons own Pick THIS YEAR

And

Already have a solid PG: Isaiah/SG: Avery/SF: Crowder and up to $50 plus mil in cap space and a plethora of young bigs on their team.

Future is definitely brighter in Boston.

Boston doesn't have $50m in cap room...and their future isn't brighter than the Magic's, its only more hyped by the media...

Orlando Depth Chart:
Payton | Oladipo | Fournier | Gordon | Vucevic
Jennings | Watson | Hezonja | Ilyasova | Smith

Boston Depth Chart:
Thomas | Bradley | Crowder | Johnson | Sullinger
Smart | Turner | Jerebko | Olynick

Starters:
Thomas > Payton
Bradley < Oladipo
Crowder > Fournier
Johnson < Gordon
Sullinger < Vucevic

Bench:
Smart + Olynick = Hezonja

Picks:
#4 / #21 / #23 > #11

Cap Space:
* Max salary contracts are Jr: $23.0m, Mid-Tier $27.6m and Vet $32.2m
* Most of the top free agents (Al Horford, Durant or Conley) are eligible for the Mid Tier max.

• Boston Celtics only have enough to offer one maximum salary contract. The Celtics have $51m in guaranteed salary, so they will have a maximum of $41 million in cap space. For Boston to sign one mid-tier free agent, they have to renounce one starter.

To have that full amount Boston would need to waive and renounce all their free Agents and team options: Sullinger (restricted), Turner (unrestricted), Johnson (TO) and Jerebko (TO). To acquire one of the top free agents (mid tier max), Boston would have to renounce all but $13.4m of all their free agents/team options. That means they would have to renounce a combination of back up players + either Amir Johnson or Jared Sullinger.

< • Orlando Magic have enough to offer two maximum salary contracts. The Magic have $36m in guaranteed salary. So they have a maximum of $56 million in cap space. Orlando has enough for one mid tier max contract + one jr. max contract...and still keep Fournier.

The Magic can waive and renounce all their free agents and team options, except for Fournier's (4.6m cap hold) leaving them with $52.4m in cap space. They can add two max contracts without losing any of their core or Fournier.

If Boston only has $27 million committed to next season, how much do they have?

And, anyone can take individual play and say my players are better than yours. And, I am not so sure Dipo is better than Avery right now. But, when it comes to team play:

Isaiah/Avery/Crowder >>>>> Payton/Dipo/Fournier

And, Boston is a playoff team for the 2nd straight year, so they sure must be doing something right.

They have Brooklyns top 5 pick and a crapload of cap money to sign up to (2) Max free agents.

And, they are in a Big Market.

Things are brighter in Boston. If Henny fanboys take their blinders off, they will realize that.

Hey, it is OK to respect other teams. Everything Magic don't have to be displayed as superior to anybody else.

[BadMofoPimp]

They did make the Playoffs last year and will this year. They are a few years older and have that experience. But, they also have a great coach. We will see if Skiles can have the same effect over a few years as well. They sure do play solid defense in Boston tho.

He will be appreciated in time, but I'm already convinced that he is the best coach in the NBA other than Popovich. In my opinion, that team with almost any other coach in the league is struggling to make the playoffs.

That's a bit premature no?

He has never won a playoff series. He's operating without expectations; that is the hardest step for a team to take - ask Milwaukee and Phoenix about those. Once that first big paycheck is cut - everything changes. Right now he has a bunch of middle of the road players buying in...add a high salary player into that mix and the dynamic entirely changes. This upcoming free agency will change what has been a very safe space for him, no injuries, no star egos, no salary expectations (since they are near lowest $ salaries in NBA)...and a very friendly Boston media.

Did you see Bostons team? Their coach gets them to way over-achieve 2 years in a row. Who cares if they haven't won a playoff series yet. They will in time.

[ezzzp]

What exactly is it that he has he done?

• He has never won a single playoff game.
• This is his first ever NBA season above .500

• His first year he led a veteran team to a record of 25 - 57
• His second year he coached a team composed of veterans + four <23 players to a record of 40 - 42. That team snuck into the playoffs in the weakest NBA conference in two decades. They got swept.
• His third year his team is 37-25, big deal. They've had the 4th easiest schedule in the NBA. None of their starters have missed any time for injury and of their key reserves only Smart missed a month.

I'm just not seeing what exactly is so exceedingly impressive about that.

Brad Stevens in the NBA = .451 (102 wins)
Scott Skiles in the NBA = .502 (470 wins)

I will preface by stating that I have a background in economics and math/statistics (meaning I majored or minored in these fields in college). This is not for the purposes of legitimizing my arguments, but rather so you can avoid using simplistic or deceptive methods addressed specifically at me in the future. I generally ignore the use of misleading statistics as there is a requisite understanding required to even interpret them, but I will respond if they are used against an argument I make.

Congratulations on your undergraduate studies. Please refrain from assuming you are more educated than others on this board to preface your argument. I assure you, you are not the only one on this website with a basic college degree.

Win - Loss and winning % are basic stats. They are used in a majority of professional sports as the fundamental statistic of competition.

SOS is inconsequential in the NBA. At least this late in the season. There is some merit in suggesting success or failure within a short window or early in the season, when there is a significant deviation in the difficulty of particular schedules. But at this point in the year, any differences are so minute as to not merit consideration. Teams don't play identical schedules, but very near to it, at least within their own conferences.

Wether you agree with the SOS formula or not does not disregard that multiple sports statistical sites and their teams of statisticians like Basketball-Reference (and famed advanced analytic guru John Hollinger) use it as a legitimate stat, argue with them about it. That does not eliminate the fact that based on SOS, Boston had the fourth easiest schedule this year.

Your distinction between veteran and non-veteran rosters is a thinly veiled attempt to negotiate the obvious talent deficit of their roster following their rebuild. Precisely which veterans were supposed to lead Boston to victories? Brandon Bass? Jeff Green? Jordan Crawford? An injured Rajon Rondo? The remains of Gerald Wallace?

That 25-57 first-year veteran team had a 27.5 over/under before Rajon Rondo was lost for most of the season.

If Brad Stevens is the second best coach in the NBA, after Popovic as you claim , shouldn't he have masterfully gotten more than 25 wins out of that group? Jacques Vaughn got 25 wins from Willie Green, Channing Frye + a roster with 9 players entering the season with two years or less experience...and that team was ravaged with injuries all season.

That second-year veteran team had an over/under of 26.5.This season's over under was 42.5 (obviously bolstered by last year's over-achievement).

Context matters. Comparing Skiles and Stevens based upon win percentage is comparing apples to orangutans. Skiles started his head coaching career by taking over a very talented Suns team. He has since proven that he is a middling NBA re-tread with a poor player development history.

Context does matter....first off, Skiles was Phoenix's lead assistant coach for two years prior to taking over as head coach. Don't pretend like he had nothing to do with that team's development.

How convenient that you ignore the key section of "context"...you know the rest of Skiles' coaching history. He took his second team (Chicago) from a lottery team to a 47 win playoff team in one year and stayed a playoff team for his entire tenure there. He also took his third team (Milwaukee) from a lottery team to the playoffs in one year.

During his tenure on those teams he developed: Shawn Marion, Tyson Chandler, Luol Deng, Kirk Heinrich, Ben Gordon, Andew Bogut, Brendan Jennings and a plethora of other young players that he developed into NBA players with long careers.

This Boston team has three former lottery picks on the roster:
Marcus Smart (6)
Kelly Olynyk (13)
Evan Turner (2)

And yet they sit a comfortable third in the Eastern Conference right now.

And yet all but two players in the rotation are in their physical prime...kind of an important (even if simplistic) stat no?:

[Captain27]

THE ORLANDO MAGIC IS HOT GARBAGE I REPEAT HOT GARBAGE

[MagicForLife]

THE ORLANDO MAGIC IS HOT GARBAGE I REPEAT HOT GARBAGE

This +1000. How the hell do you allow Alex Len to look like a supertar against you? And how is it possible that Devin Booker the youngest player in the league looks more poise than your whole team?

[majortom71]

This team should bounce back for next game. Not even worried

[Xatticus]

Congratulations on your undergraduate studies. Please refrain from assuming you are more educated than others on this board to preface your argument. I assure you, you are not the only one on this website with a basic college degree.

Win - Loss and winning % are basic stats. They are used in a majority of professional sports as the fundamental statistic of competition.

I made no such assumption regarding your education. What I can say with absolute certainty, is that you did not study statistics.

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" author unknown

I don't know if you unwittingly or purposively misrepresent statistics to support your view, but regardless of which, you do.

Wether you agree with the SOS formula or not does not disregard that multiple sports statistical sites and their teams of statisticians like Basketball-Reference (and famed advanced analytic guru John Hollinger) use it as a legitimate stat, argue with them about it. That does not eliminate the fact that based on SOS, Boston had the fourth easiest schedule this year.

It's not agreement or disagreement with a formula that is in question. It is the lack of deviation within the distribution. It amounts to differentiating age by days, hours, or minutes. It is inconsequential. It is like a child responding that their age is 5 years and 1 day old, as if that day means something.

If Brad Stevens is the second best coach in the NBA, after Popovic as you claim , shouldn't he have masterfully gotten more than 25 wins out of that group? Jacques Vaughn got 25 wins from Willie Green, Channing Frye + a roster with 9 players entering the season with two years or less experience...and that team was ravaged with injuries all season.

I made no such claim, as it is impossible to prove such an assertion. I said that I am convinced he is. Your man crush on Skiles took over and here we are.

Context does matter....first off, Skiles was Phoenix's lead assistant coach for two years prior to taking over as head coach. Don't pretend like he had nothing to do with that team's development.

How convenient that you ignore the key section of "context"...you know the rest of Skiles' coaching history. He took his second team (Chicago) from a lottery team to a 47 win playoff team in one year and stayed a playoff team for his entire tenure there. He also took his third team (Milwaukee) from a lottery team to the playoffs in one year.

During his tenure on those teams he developed: Shawn Marion, Tyson Chandler, Luol Deng, Kirk Heinrich, Ben Gordon, Andew Bogut, Brendan Jennings and a plethora of other young players that he developed into NBA players with long careers.

This is all gibberish. You give credit to Skiles for the careers of every player that played under him, regardless of their actual development. When SVG was coaching the Magic, he had supporters claiming what a great job he did in developing Redick. In the span of five short years he managed to turn the collegiate player of the year into an NBA player.

What we know about player development is that young players that play a lot and make a lot of mistakes are the players that show the most development over the span of their careers. It is the opportunity effect. Coaches that play with the leash simply inhibit this. Believe it or not, most people learn from their mistakes. Or perhaps we should believe that Tobias Harris' time on Skiles' bench in Milwaukee made him the player he became in Orlando?

And yet all but two players in the rotation are in their physical prime...kind of an important (even if simplistic) stat no?:

Sigh.

[Daniel Lee]

Got a link?

It's probably more noticeable because his shots are jump shots. You don't really expect starting Cs to pass the ball a lot when they are receiving the ball down low. You do expect them to pass more when they are standing outside the key.

Vuc gets his assists from when we dump it to him in the low post. He draws an extra defender and he passes it back out for open 3s. What have you been watching to not notice this? Calling him a blackhole is also laughable. He's one of the least selfish guys on the team and only takes shots he can make.

Been watching him shoot a lot of jumpers, that's what.

Vuc, is a Blackhole everyone knows that in the NBA.

[ezzzp]

Congratulations on your undergraduate studies. Please refrain from assuming you are more educated than others on this board to preface your argument. I assure you, you are not the only one on this website with a basic college degree.

Win - Loss and winning % are basic stats. They are used in a majority of professional sports as the fundamental statistic of competition.

I made no such assumption regarding your education. What I can say with absolute certainty, is that you did not study statistics.

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" author unknown

I don't know if you unwittingly or purposively misrepresent statistics to support your view, but regardless of which, you do.

Wether you agree with the SOS formula or not does not disregard that multiple sports statistical sites and their teams of statisticians like Basketball-Reference (and famed advanced analytic guru John Hollinger) use it as a legitimate stat, argue with them about it. That does not eliminate the fact that based on SOS, Boston had the fourth easiest schedule this year.

It's not agreement or disagreement with a formula that is in question. It is the lack of deviation within the distribution. It amounts to differentiating age by days, hours, or minutes. It is inconsequential. It is like a child responding that their age is 5 years and 1 day old, as if that day means something.

If Brad Stevens is the second best coach in the NBA, after Popovic as you claim , shouldn't he have masterfully gotten more than 25 wins out of that group? Jacques Vaughn got 25 wins from Willie Green, Channing Frye + a roster with 9 players entering the season with two years or less experience...and that team was ravaged with injuries all season.

I made no such claim, as it is impossible to prove such an assertion. I said that I am convinced he is. Your man crush on Skiles took over and here we are.

Context does matter....first off, Skiles was Phoenix's lead assistant coach for two years prior to taking over as head coach. Don't pretend like he had nothing to do with that team's development.

How convenient that you ignore the key section of "context"...you know the rest of Skiles' coaching history. He took his second team (Chicago) from a lottery team to a 47 win playoff team in one year and stayed a playoff team for his entire tenure there. He also took his third team (Milwaukee) from a lottery team to the playoffs in one year.

During his tenure on those teams he developed: Shawn Marion, Tyson Chandler, Luol Deng, Kirk Heinrich, Ben Gordon, Andew Bogut, Brendan Jennings and a plethora of other young players that he developed into NBA players with long careers.

This is all gibberish. You give credit to Skiles for the careers of every player that played under him, regardless of their actual development. When SVG was coaching the Magic, he had supporters claiming what a great job he did in developing Redick. In the span of five short years he managed to turn the collegiate player of the year into an NBA player.

What we know about player development is that young players that play a lot and make a lot of mistakes are the players that show the most development over the span of their careers. It is the opportunity effect. Coaches that play with the leash simply inhibit this. Believe it or not, most people learn from their mistakes. Or perhaps we should believe that Tobias Harris' time on Skiles' bench in Milwaukee made him the player he became in Orlando?

And yet all but two players in the rotation are in their physical prime...kind of an important (even if simplistic) stat no?:

Sigh.

You know with certainty I didn't study statistics WOW. That tells me know all I need to know about you.

[Xatticus]

You know with certainty I didn't study statistics WOW. That tells me know all I need to know about you.

Yes. You unwittingly betray your knowledge of it with each post. Perhaps your argumentative nature would lend itself to the practice of law.

[Daniel Lee]

assist per possession.

Got a link?

It's probably more noticeable because his shots are jump shots. You don't really expect starting Cs to pass the ball a lot when they are receiving the ball down low. You do expect them to pass more when they are standing outside the key.

Vuc gets his assists from when we dump it to him in the low post. He draws an extra defender and he passes it back out for open 3s. What have you been watching to not notice this? Calling him a blackhole is also laughable. He's one of the least selfish guys on the team and only takes shots he can make.

You must be his friend and your delusional if you don't think Vuc is a blackhole, he's a very selfish player only passes out if he has know choice.

[OrlandO]

Got a link?

It's probably more noticeable because his shots are jump shots. You don't really expect starting Cs to pass the ball a lot when they are receiving the ball down low. You do expect them to pass more when they are standing outside the key.

Vuc gets his assists from when we dump it to him in the low post. He draws an extra defender and he passes it back out for open 3s. What have you been watching to not notice this? Calling him a blackhole is also laughable. He's one of the least selfish guys on the team and only takes shots he can make.

You must be his friend and your delusional if you don't think Vuc is a blackhole, he's a very selfish player only passes out if he has know choice.

Nope, not a blackhole. His role is to be our primary scorer through getting buckets on his own, bailing out our perimeter players through midrangers, and putbacks. He brings a nice balance of all that. If we signed an all star scorer he would gladly share touches. He also does look to pass when we play through him... unless you're blind you should be able to see him do it. He may not be some star playmaker, but he is a willing passer and far from selfish. Now go crawl back into your hole.