Profile of a Shooter: Orlando Magic Youngsters

[Melvinlocker]

*New addition*

Shooting Analysis- Nikola Vucevic


2015-16 (includes % improvements from last year)

2P- 51.2% (-1.2%)

0-3ft- 61.6% (-5.2%)

3-10ft- 50.0% (+5.2%)

10-16ft- 43.1% (-4.0%)

16-3Pft- 48.2% (+1.4%)

3P- 22.2% (-1.11%)

FT- 75.3% (-0.1%)

Summary

Under the Skiles regime, Vucevic’s role changed drastically. He took less shots in the painted area, which likely led to his drastic decline in efficiency around the rim. He also did not show any notable improvement at drawing contact, which further cements his play style.

However, it’s not all bad with Vucevic. Few players in this league have a midrange game that is as lethal as Vucevic. He can destroy a team with his jumper from practically anywhere except the three point line. This should leave room for optimism for the Magic, should the desire to expand his range to the 3-point line. Couple this with his improved passing ability and post savvy, and you have a deadly player on offense.

From a shooting perspective, Vucevic's shot spread and efficiency is very similar to players like Al Horford and Marcin Gortat. The key difference is that those two are elite finishers at the rim, while Vuc at his best is slightly above average. He's still young, so he may improve in this area if our overall shooting improves.

2017 Primary Goals

1. Regain his ability to finish at the rim efficiently (largely dependent on coaching and player personnel). 65%+ is doable for him.
2. Start shooting threes. Try to shoot 50+ threes (in a season) at a % north of 35%.
3. Try to draw more contact (unlikely).


Shooting Analysis- Victor Oladipo


2015-16 (includes % improvements from last year)

2P- 47.5% (+1.1%)

0-3ft- 57.4% (+0.5%)

3-10ft- 31.3% (+5.0%)

10-16ft- 40.2% (0%)

16-3Pft- 43.5% (+8.1%)

3P- 34.8% (+0.9%)

FT- 83% (+1.1%)

Summary

Oladipo only showed marginal improvements in most of his shooting categories, with no regression. However, his midrange game is a notable exception. He took much fewer shots around the rim and increased his midrange attempts. His percentages from midrange are close to an elite level with both ranges hovering in the low 40s. His drop in forays to rim likely contributed to his career low turnover rate as well. His 3PT shot has reached respectable levels and should continue to show steady improvement. Regarding his finishes at the rim. He has shown moderate improvement from year to year and should look to continue this trend. Some of this inefficiency is a function of playing with Elfrid in the SL. If Elfrid can add a formidable jumper from 16ft.-3P line, then Oladipo could see lanes open up even further (refer to Elfrid's shooting profile for further details).

If Oladipo and our young guys have a good summer, then Oladipo could become a formidable offensive force for this team.

2017 Primary Goals

1. Around 60% shooting at the rim.
2. 35%+ shooting from 3-10ft.
3. 3PT% should be north of 36%.

BONUS- increase in FTA and FT%.



Shooting Analysis- Evan Fournier


2015-16 (includes % improvements from last year)

2P- 50.6% (+2.6%)

0-3ft- 63.4% (-0.2%)

3-10ft- 40.5% (+15.5%)

10-16ft- 38.8% (+17.1%)

16-3Pft- 31.3% (-3.7%)

3P- 40% (+2.2%)

FT- 83.6% (+10.8%)

Summary

Wow! Fournier has displayed some massive changes in his game over the course of a year. He went from being an awful shooter from midrange to above average in the span of a year. This is also reflected in his dramatic jump in free-throw % as well. He maintained his finishing ability around the rim and managed to show incremental improvement for his already stellar 3pt shot. The only weakness in his shooting ability is from 16ft to the 3P line. He wasn't a heavy usage scorer from this range, so these are likely shots that he is being forced to take by the defense. If this is the case, then he will have no choice but to improve this area of his game or else the team is giving up on some easy points.

Fournier has shown stellar improvement as a shooter and still has some room to blossom even further. He's a keeper IMO.

2017 Primary Goals

1. Shoot north of 35% from 16ft. to the 3P line.
2. Continue to refine his overall shooting ability.
3. Get to the line more to take advantage of his newfound FT shooting abilities.

BONUS- Shoot north of 65% at the rim.




Shooting Analysis- Elfrid Payton


2015-16 (includes % improvements from last year)

2P- 45.1% (+1.6%)

0-3ft- 58.3% (+6.8%)

3-10ft- 38.1% (+0.5%)

10-16ft- 35.5% (+2.6%)

16-3Pft- 25.2% (-9.3%)

3P- 32.6% (+6.4%)

FT- 58.9% (+3.8%)


Quick Hitters:
-Shot 107 attempts from 16-3P range compared to 55 attempts last year.
-Saw an increase in 3P shot attempts from 42 last year to 92 this year.
-Saw dramatic increase from ranges 0-3 and 10-16 ft. with little change in overall shot attempts from those areas.
-Saw a dramatic % increase from 3-10 ft. range with a significant decrease in total attempts (58 less to be exact).
-Displayed minor improvement in FT%.

Summary
Elfrid improved in a number of areas this year. He is able to finish shots around the rim at a respectable rate and he showed a dramatic increase in virtually every shooting range. The one glaring omission is his shooting from 16-3P range. He nearly doubled his shot attempts from that area and saw a dramatic decrease in shooting percentage. Some may suggest that he quit shooting those shots altogether, but these are shots that a player with his skillset must hit. Tony Parker is the gold standard for this shot as he shot over 200 shots from this range at 45.5%.

Elfrid must also continue to improve his free-throw shooting and three point shooting. He made significant strides in each area this year, but he will need to continue that trend next year.

2017 Primary Goals
1. 35%+ shooting from 16-3P. No decrease in shot attempts.
2. Free-throw shooting needs to be 65%+ next year.
3. 3PT shooting needs to be north of 35% on over 100 attempts.

BONUS- Any improvement from other shooting ranges is gravy.

All of these goals are achievable if he puts in the necessary work.



Shooting Analysis- Aaron Gordon


2015-16 (includes % improvements from last year)

2P- 53.1% (+3.1%)

0-3ft- 65.4% (+1.9%)

3-10ft- 34.4% (-7.5%)

10-16ft- 34.0% (+24%)

16-3Pft- 33.8% (+3%)

3P- 29.6% (+2.5%)

FT- 66.8% (-5.3%)

Summary

AG has displayed tremendous improvements in his game this year. He has shown tremendous growth his midrange shooting ability. He saw a dip in his shooting from 3-10 ft. partly due to a decrease in attempt rate. He shot 5-11 (45.5%) on hook shots this year as opposed 95-303 on midrange shots (31.4%). He should look to improve his midrange jumper to a more respectable rate. In addition, he could take a few more hook shots to help him settle into the offense quicker.

Aaron's next step as a shooter is to go from below average/average to above average on all of his jumpshots. He shown a great deal of growth in the span of two years, and its hard to imagine that the 20 year old Gordon is done yet. If he starts hitting near 40% on his midrange shots and 35%+ on his 3P shots, he will be a very tough cover.

2017 Primary Goals

1. 37%+ shooting on shots from 3ft. to the 3 point line.
2. Free-throw shooting needs to be 70%+ next year.
3. 3PT% should be north of 33%.




Shooting Analysis- Mario Hezonja


2015-16

2P- 50.4%

0-3ft- 65.9%

3-10ft- 41.2%

10-16ft- 47.6%

16-3Pft- 43.5%

3P- 39.5%

FT- 90.7%

Summary

Hezonja's rookie campaign was not on par with many of the other 2016 rookies, but there should still be great optimism regarding his shooting ability. All of his shooting %'s ranged from above average to elite for his position except for his 3P%. It's important to note that these percentages were achieved on a small sample size, but they are nonetheless encouraging. If he gets on the floor for longer stretches he should continue this dominant shooting trend. In the 9 games Hezonja started, his base shooting stats either remained the same or improved slightly. He shot a scintillating 90.7% from the free-throw line, which for the most part was irrelevant because he hardly ever made it there (1.4 attempts per 36). For guys like Hezonja, FTA's (and defense) is what separates career 6th men and All-Stars.

As he improves on both sides of the ball, he could become a very formidable weapon for the Magic. Not many players come in with his combination of shooting and athletic ability.

2017 Primary Goals

1. Get to the line 3 times per 36.
2. Increase 3P% to 38%+
3. Show that his other %'s aren't a fluke when he earns an expanded role.

[Skin]

So in the perfect world who starts at PG, SG and SF in 2017?

[Melvinlocker]

So in the perfect world who starts at PG, SG and SF in 2017?

It's really hard to say at this juncture. I might have a better answer during after we have gone through the draft and free agency.

[Baka_La Flame]

So in the perfect world who starts at PG, SG and SF in 2017?

Kyrie Oladipo Durant

[Melvinlocker]

So in the perfect world who starts at PG, SG and SF in 2017?

Kyrie Oladipo Durant

Pretty much, except I'd switch Irving for CP3.

[Skin]

So in the perfect world who starts at PG, SG and SF in 2017?

It's really hard to say at this juncture. I might have a better answer during after we have gone through the draft and free agency.

We could very realistically be talking about the same players with nothing significant done in the draft or FA to alter those positions. Lets say we resigned Fournier for $18M per year because we had to match what Brooklyn offered him.

Since we have this nice evaluation and expectations for 2017 that you created, who do you start at PG, SG and SF if you had to pick from this group of players?

[Melvinlocker]

So in the perfect world who starts at PG, SG and SF in 2017?

It's really hard to say at this juncture. I might have a better answer during after we have gone through the draft and free agency.

We could very realistically be talking about the same players with nothing significant done in the draft or FA to alter those positions. Lets say we resigned Fournier for $18M per year because we had to match what Brooklyn offered him.

Since we have this nice evaluation and expectations for 2017 that you created, who do you start at PG, SG and SF if you had to pick from this group of players?

So if we have roughly the same core, and they achieve their goals (expectations is a too strong of a word IMO), here are my potential lineups

Lineup
Elfrid
Oladipo
Fournier

Hezonja gets significant minutes off the bench (24ish) and Aaron plays another season at PF unless we sign a major free agent that allows him to play at SF.

[Skin]

It's really hard to say at this juncture. I might have a better answer during after we have gone through the draft and free agency.

We could very realistically be talking about the same players with nothing significant done in the draft or FA to alter those positions. Lets say we resigned Fournier for $18M per year because we had to match what Brooklyn offered him.

Since we have this nice evaluation and expectations for 2017 that you created, who do you start at PG, SG and SF if you had to pick from this group of players?

So if we have roughly the same core, and they achieve their goals (expectations is a too strong of a word IMO), here are my potential lineups

Lineup
Elfrid
Oladipo
Fournier

Hezonja gets significant minutes off the bench (24ish) and Aaron plays another season at PF unless we sign a major free agent that allows him to play at SF.

That's what I feared.

[Melvinlocker]

We could very realistically be talking about the same players with nothing significant done in the draft or FA to alter those positions. Lets say we resigned Fournier for $18M per year because we had to match what Brooklyn offered him.

Since we have this nice evaluation and expectations for 2017 that you created, who do you start at PG, SG and SF if you had to pick from this group of players?

So if we have roughly the same core, and they achieve their goals (expectations is a too strong of a word IMO), here are my potential lineups

Lineup
Elfrid
Oladipo
Fournier

Hezonja gets significant minutes off the bench (24ish) and Aaron plays another season at PF unless we sign a major free agent that allows him to play at SF.

That's what I feared.

It's not my preferred lineup for the long term, but it's what we need to do for 2017 barring any major signings. Fournier and Oladipo are by far our two best perimeter players right now. We will have to make major investments in both of the very soon. I think Henny and Skiles will play next season much like they did with Tobias. They will let Oladipo and Fournier have opportunities to take a leading role and see who develops into the star their looking for. If they both do well, you simply keep Fournier and resign Dipo. There's still plenty of minutes to go around for Hezonja so no worries there.

If one of them stagnates or falters, then a midseason trade will likely be the best course of action (See Tobias trade). The difference is they should be bullish on getting a young stud to replace our outgoing talent, not just cap relief.

Regarding Hezonja, I see a 30 minute per game role in the second half of the 2016-17 season. This way we have a good body of work to evaluate our three wings heading into the 2017 offseason.

[fendilim]

So in the perfect world who starts at PG, SG and SF in 2017?

Ola
Fournier
Hezonja
Gordon
Vuc

[Skin]

So in the perfect world who starts at PG, SG and SF in 2017?

Ola
Fournier
Hezonja
Gordon
Vuc

I'm a little more excited about that to be honest.

Wouldn't even mind...

PG Oladipo
SG Hezonja
SF Gordon

or

PG Draft
SG Oladipo
SF Hezonja
PF Gordon

or

PG Payton
SG Oladipo
SF Hezonja
PF Gordon

As you can tell... I don't care if we don't bring back Fournier. I would like to get something for him in a S&T though. Fournier is a good player, but I believe he's close to his ceiling (and I think Hezonja can be much more and better for us in the long term). We keep our cap space in tact if elite FAs don't come here by not using up our cap on him. I think he'll be harder to deal than Tobias was. Tobias was signed for the old max at $16M. If Fournier gets the max under the new cap (or anything more than what other teams would consider a good deal for him), then value is not the same. It's not like we will be able to say, "when the cap goes up Fournier's deal will look better"... like that was with Tobias. So even getting expirings might be hard to do in the future. I say be smart, be bold and invest in our blue chippers.

[Blue_and_Whte]

PG- Dipo
SG-Fournier
SF-Mario
PF-Gordon
C-Vooch

prefered

PG-Conley
SG-Oladipo
SF-Fournier
PF-Gordon
C-Vooch

Although Payton has improved as a shooter from behind the 3pt line, he still isn't a "shooter" and imo will never be enough of a real threat from behind the 3pt line to provide the space to allow other guys to operate. I cant believe people actually wanted to trade Dipo in order to accommodate Payton. That was absolutely absurd.

I dont feel that we should lose Fournier if we want to make the playoffs next season. Mario still wont be good next season to replicate what Evan brings imo (obviously I hope im wrong). Unless all of our dream scenerios come true and we land Durant or Batum then I'm sticking with Evan in the SL.

[rusoopE]

Why are we trying to force dipo to play pg? It wont happen guys... hopefully we sign conley or payton is going to start all next year. And if we cant get a sf the line up will be exactly the same
EP
Dipo
Fournie
AG
Vooch

[fendilim]

So in the perfect world who starts at PG, SG and SF in 2017?

Ola
Fournier
Hezonja
Gordon
Vuc

I'm a little more excited about that to be honest.

Wouldn't even mind...

PG Oladipo
SG Hezonja
SF Gordon

or

PG Draft
SG Oladipo
SF Hezonja
PF Gordon

or

PG Payton
SG Oladipo
SF Hezonja
PF Gordon

As you can tell... I don't care if we don't bring back Fournier. I would like to get something for him in a S&T though. Fournier is a good player, but I believe he's close to his ceiling (and I think Hezonja can be much more and better for us in the long term). We keep our cap space in tact if elite FAs don't come here by not using up our cap on him. I think he'll be harder to deal than Tobias was. Tobias was signed for the old max at $16M. If Fournier gets the max under the new cap (or anything more than what other teams would consider a good deal for him), then value is not the same. It's not like we will be able to say, "when the cap goes up Fournier's deal will look better"... like that was with Tobias. So even getting expirings might be hard to do in the future. I say be smart, be bold and invest in our blue chippers.

I value Forunier more than EP, right now. Especially with the way the game has been evolving. Fournier is simply a better fit with the current group we have, IMO. Unless, EP improves on his shooting.

[RickB-Orlando]

The way I read these stats:
- Oladipo has the potential to be a very good scorer on fairly efficient shooting.
- Hezonja has potentially elite shooting skills
- AG is a slasher, and should stick to being a slasher. He should concentrate on cleaning up around the rim, where he is exceptional. Outside of 3 feet he probably should put the ball on the floor and take it to the hoop. He's consistently a fair (35%) shooter outside 3 feet at best.
- Payton is not a shooter. He should stop shooting. He's also not a slasher, as he tends to get jammed too much when he does that. He's an elite passer and should concentrate on that, shooting only occasionally.

[Blue_and_Whte]

The way I read these stats:
- Oladipo has the potential to be a very good scorer on fairly efficient shooting.
- Hezonja has potentially elite shooting skills
- AG is a slasher, and should stick to being a slasher. He should concentrate on cleaning up around the rim, where he is exceptional. Outside of 3 feet he probably should put the ball on the floor and take it to the hoop. He's consistently a fair (35%) shooter outside 3 feet at best.
- Payton is not a shooter. He should stop shooting. He's also not a slasher, as he tends to get jammed too much when he does that. He's an elite passer and should concentrate on that, shooting only occasionally.

I don't even think he's an "elite" passer. I think he's above average but your description sounds like Ramon Sessions....

[Skin]

Ola
Fournier
Hezonja
Gordon
Vuc

I'm a little more excited about that to be honest.

Wouldn't even mind...

PG Oladipo
SG Hezonja
SF Gordon

or

PG Draft
SG Oladipo
SF Hezonja
PF Gordon

or

PG Payton
SG Oladipo
SF Hezonja
PF Gordon

As you can tell... I don't care if we don't bring back Fournier. I would like to get something for him in a S&T though. Fournier is a good player, but I believe he's close to his ceiling (and I think Hezonja can be much more and better for us in the long term). We keep our cap space in tact if elite FAs don't come here by not using up our cap on him. I think he'll be harder to deal than Tobias was. Tobias was signed for the old max at $16M. If Fournier gets the max under the new cap (or anything more than what other teams would consider a good deal for him), then value is not the same. It's not like we will be able to say, "when the cap goes up Fournier's deal will look better"... like that was with Tobias. So even getting expirings might be hard to do in the future. I say be smart, be bold and invest in our blue chippers.

I value Forunier more than EP, right now. Especially with the way the game has been evolving. Fournier is simply a better fit with the current group we have, IMO. Unless, EP improves on his shooting.

I think I value Fournier more too. It's nearly equal maybe.

But this is the summer where we have to make a decision on Fournier and we don't have to do the same with Payton. So we do have a chance to see if he can raise his game next season. But with Fournier it's DECISION TIME. If we're going to pay up for him, then I think we need to commit to him as a starter over Oladipo. It was not fun seeing Fournier match up to opposing SFs.

[Melvinlocker]

The way I read these stats:
- Oladipo has the potential to be a very good scorer on fairly efficient shooting.
- Hezonja has potentially elite shooting skills
- AG is a slasher, and should stick to being a slasher. He should concentrate on cleaning up around the rim, where he is exceptional. Outside of 3 feet he probably should put the ball on the floor and take it to the hoop. He's consistently a fair (35%) shooter outside 3 feet at best.
- Payton is not a shooter. He should stop shooting. He's also not a slasher, as he tends to get jammed too much when he does that. He's an elite passer and should concentrate on that, shooting only occasionally.

I think you're spot on with the first two and I somewhat agree with you on the last two.

Aaron Gordon should not try to become a high usage jump shooter in the way Paul George is for Indiana, but he still has room to grow into a Jimmy Butler level shooter (good %, low attempts).

Regarding Payton, I don't think we should make any definitive statements on his game until after the 2017 season. He made some large jumps in shooting ability and he may do that again. If he stagnates, then he could fetch us something nice on the open market. Unless CP3 is signing with our team, we can afford to see what Payton does next year. The key shooting range for him is really the 16ft to 3P range. Players like Tony Parker only shoot about 1 three a game (at an average clip), yet he is still guarded off the ball on the perimeter because he can destroy teams with his 16-18 ft jumper.

Consider their shooting charts for 2015-16.

Elfrid

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/paytoel01/shooting/2016/

Tony

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parketo01/shooting/2016/

[Melvinlocker]

Special addition.

Shooting Analysis- Nikola Vucevic


2015-16 (includes % improvements from last year)

2P- 51.2% (-1.2%)

0-3ft- 61.6% (-5.2%)

3-10ft- 50.0% (+5.2%)

10-16ft- 43.1% (-4.0%)

16-3Pft- 48.2% (+1.4%)

3P- 22.2% (-1.11%)

FT- 75.3% (-0.1%)

Summary

Under the Skiles regime, Vucevic’s role changed drastically. He took less shots in the painted area, which likely led to his drastic decline in efficiency around the rim. He also did not show any notable improvement at drawing contact, which further cements his play style.

However, it’s not all bad with Vucevic. Few players in this league have a midrange game that is as lethal as Vucevic. He can destroy at team from practically anywhere except the three point line. This should leave room for optimism for the Magic, should the desire to expand his range to the 3-point line. Couple this with his improved passing ability and post savvy, and you have a deadly player on offense.

From a shooting perspective, Vucevic's shot spread and efficiency is very similar to players like Al Horford and Marcin Gortat. The key difference is that those two are elite finishers at the rim, while Vuc at his best is slightly above average. He's still young, so he may improve in this area if our overall shooting improves.

2017 Primary Goals

1. Regain his ability to finish at the rim efficiently (largely dependent on coaching and player personnel). 65%+ is doable for him.
2. Start shooting threes. Try to shoot 50+ threes (in a season) at a % north of 35%.
3. Try to draw more contact (unlikely).