Orlando Magic 2017 Roster Stocktake

[Bensational]

Since we seem poised for an offseason of change, I figured we may as well start with a stocktake of what we've actually got on our team to gauge assets, liabilities and talent.

It's tough to run a poll, but I figured everyone can just add their own reviews below. I'd be interested in getting the opinions of some non-Magic fans, which I'm sure will ignite heated discussion, but an outside perspective could be useful.

I've included an Index below to outline my interpretation of Tiers of Value, and what potential trades can be broken down to using those Tiers.

Ranked in order of value to other teams (in my opinion):

Top 7 lottery pick guaranteed (pre lottery)
Tier 2-3 Value
Lottery will dictate the value of this pick. Top 3 gets an impact player and game changer. 4-6 could get us a quality player.

Gordon
Tier 3 Value
Developing prospect. Back playing his most efficient position, doing great work as a glue guy. Weak 3pt shooting, but he increased his volume by double, with only a slight dip in efficiency. Not a star, but possibly a future Jae Crowder kind of player?

Fournier
Tier 4 Value
Capable starting SG with good shooting and scoring instincts, weak defense, but seems to be a team player. #3 option alongside 2 legit stars, otherwise possibly a top tier 6th man.

Vucevic
Tier 4-5 Value
Capable starting big man who can play both sides well, #3 option scorer alongside 2 legit stars, otherwise possibly a top tier 6th man.

Payton
Tier 4-5 Value
Topical prospect. Doesn't fit with the current era of shooting/scoring PGs, but has improved this season and found a way to play to his strengths. I'd rate him as a starting caliber PG if he had 2 elite shooting stars around him (and other fitting pieces), but that will be contentious.

Ross
Tier 5 Value
Capable starting SG. Knows his role, plays off the ball well, gets his hands in lanes on defense. Role playing floor spacer.

Hezonja
Tier 4-6 Value
Developing prospect. Is tackling a new position now as a PF. Looks much better on defense, but his confidence and decision making on offense is still underdeveloped. Value is probably zero amongst other teams right now, and he's probably worth more to us as someone to continue developing than someone to apply the sunk cost fallacy to and cut ties with.

#26 pick
Tier 5 Value
Good pick for trading, or for taking a swing at surprise talent. I'd prefer to keep this pick, and see what Lloyd, or our future GM can uncover with it.

Biyombo
Tier 5-6 Value
Overpaid for his current role. Did decently as a starting C, but requires a lot more talent around him to be a viable long term starting C. Hasn't stepped up as the defensive anchor we would've anticipated.

#33 pick (pre lottery)
Tier 6 Value
Lottery will dictate if we get this pick or not. If we do, great position for drafting some steals who have slipped out of the first round.

#35 pick
Tier 6 Value
Great position for drafting some steals who have slipped out of the first round.

Zimmerman
Tier 6 Value
Young, developing big. Seems to have some game and could use some more exposure and development time.

Augustin
Tier 6 Value
Underwhelmed for his contract. Not a bad player, but wasn't able to bring his strengths to the team (scoring and shooting) consistently. I'd imagine we're going to struggle to move him.



What are your thoughts on the value of our players?

_________________________________

INDEX

I like to categorise players into Tiers of value. Outline of the Tier structure is below. Players can jump up and down between Tiers as their careers progress and they develop, or they join stronger teams and find themselves as less of an alpha and more of a supporting role.

Draft Picks, Rookies and Young Players I think hold different levels of value between the buyer and the seller. Sellers see a Top 5 pick as having Tier 1-2 value. Buyers likely wouldn't trade Tier 1-2 value for just a top 5 pick, though. I think Rookies and Young players can maintain Tier 3 value, as long as they don't look like complete busts, simply off of perceived 'potential'.

I think trades break down like:

Tier 1 (rarely traded as Tier 1 guys. If they are, it's generally under poor circumstances so a team will not receive equal value for them).

Tier 2 = Tier 2 (straight up trade)

Tier 2 = Tier 3 (x2) [Ie, DMC = Hield (Tier 3) + NOP Pick (Tier 3) + Evans (Tier 4)]

Tier 3 = Tier 3 (straight up trade) [Ie, Love = WIggins (Tier 3) + Bennet (bust prospect, Tier 4 value)]

Tier 3 = Tier 4 (x2 or x3)

Obviously transactions won't always neatly fit into my breakdown, and some GMs get great value and unearth players capable of playing within higher Tiers for lesser value (Ainge with Thomas).

TIER BREAKDOWN

Tier 1 (Elite Stars - can carry a team on their own, contender if partnered with another star)
LeBron
Durant
Kawhi
Curry
Westbrook
Harden
Giannis
etc...


Tier 2 (Stars - need other stars to be a legit contender)
Davis
Cousins
Irving
George
Butler
Lillard
Paul
Griffin
Thomas
Aldridge
Wall
etc...


Tier 3 (#2 Options, or #3 options on a contending team. Can post inflated stats as a #1 option, but not a convincing star. Also great glue guys and defensive stalwarts can fit in here)
Thompson
Love
DeRozan
Lowry
Whiteside
Gobert
Dray Green
Millsap
Hayward
McCollum
M.Gasol
Beal
M.Turner
etc...


Tier 4 (#3 options in general. Elite role players)
Conley
Crowder
Redick
Middleton
George Hill
Teague
Middleton
Markieff Morris
Harris
Fournier
etc...


Tier 5 (Role playing starters)
Danny Green
Snell
Brogdon
Prince
Hardaway Jr
Gortat
Rondo
Lopez
E. Turner


Tier 6 (Bench guys)
Basically anyone else...

[Uncommon]

Great write-up, I found this thoroughly entertaining and enjoyed the read. I do however disagree on Gordon, Fournier, and Vucevic. Don't really have an issue with anything else. I'd say AG and Evan are probably a tier too high and Vucevic is 1 tier too low.

Your descriptions call a Tier 3 player a possible first option that posts inflated numbers, or the second or third option on a contending team, in addition to defensive stalwarts or great glue guys. I don't think either of those describe Gordon at all. I'm not even sure if he will ever be described as such. He's not the second option on this terrible team (he may not even be the third), so I have trouble seeing him as a top-3 option on a contending team, at least not anytime too. I also wouldn't call him a consistently great defensive player or a glue guy, though if he were to reach Tier 3 someday, it'd be because of those two things.

As far as Fournier, I don't think he belongs on the list with those other players in Tier 4. Perhaps I'm down on this Magic team and judge them more harshly than I should, but again, I don't see Fournier being a third option on any other team but one of the very worst. I don't think Evan would start at SG on any other team in the league (perhaps I'm exaggerating some, but he's that bad). If his shot isn't falling, he's nearly worthless. I cringe at the very idea of putting him on the same list as Mike Conley or Jae Crowder or Khris Middleton, players that contribute so much more to their team -- and on both sides of the ball -- than the occasional 3-pointer.

I like where you put Vucevic except I don't think there's any questuon that he isn't a Tier 5 player. You have him as borderline 4-5. I don't think he's merely a role player who starts for a pathetic team as its only option. While teams can certainly go the Enes Kanter route with him, his defense has improved enough that, coupled with his above average offense, Vucevic is a plus player in the NBA and deserves to start on most teams. To me, there's no question that he's Tier 4, and perhaps even Tier 3 on the right team.

[Bensational]

Great write-up, I found this thoroughly entertaining and enjoyed the read. I do however disagree on Gordon, Fournier, and Vucevic. Don't really have an issue with anything else. I'd say AG and Evan are probably a tier too high and Vucevic is 1 tier too low.

Your descriptions call a Tier 3 player a possible first option that posts inflated numbers, or the second or third option on a contending team, in addition to defensive stalwarts or great glue guys. I don't think either of those describe Gordon at all. I'm not even sure if he will ever be described as such. He's not the second option on this terrible team (he may not even be the third), so I have trouble seeing him as a top-3 option on a contending team, at least not anytime too. I also wouldn't call him a consistently great defensive player or a glue guy, though if he were to reach Tier 3 someday, it'd be because of those two things.

As far as Fournier, I don't think he belongs on the list with those other players in Tier 4. Perhaps I'm down on this Magic team and judge them more harshly than I should, but again, I don't see Fournier being a third option on any other team but one of the very worst. I don't think Evan would start at SG on any other team in the league (perhaps I'm exaggerating some, but he's that bad). If his shot isn't falling, he's nearly worthless. I cringe at the very idea of putting him on the same list as Mike Conley or Jae Crowder or Khris Middleton, players that contribute so much more to their team -- and on both sides of the ball -- than the occasional 3-pointer.

I like where you put Vucevic except I don't think there's any questuon that he isn't a Tier 5 player. You have him as borderline 4-5. I don't think he's merely a role player who starts for a pathetic team as its only option. While teams can certainly go the Enes Kanter route with him, his defense has improved enough that, coupled with his above average offense, Vucevic is a plus player in the NBA and deserves to start on most teams. To me, there's no question that he's Tier 4, and perhaps even Tier 3 on the right team.

All very fair points.

My justification for Gordon having higher value is just his youth and 'potential' inflating his value currently. Will he ever reach the level of a Tier 3 player? Probably not as a shooter/scorer, but possibly as a Dray Green. However, I currently feel like he's headed for a Tier 4 ending, with a Crowder like impact.

For Fournier, I think he just needs to be around the right players to maximise his talent. Put him on the Warriors with just Durant and Curry, and he'd be a lethal off the ball guy. Put him in LAC in place of JJ, and he could replicate that role well, IMO. Yeah, his defense is weak, which probably knocks him down in comparison to the likes of the guys you mentioned, so maybe he's a 4-5 Tier guy, depending on the Buyer and the demand they have for a player with his skillset?

With Vuc, I've just become disenchanted with him. I'm sure there's the potential for him to be a big time player on the right team with the right configuration around him (Portland has always been the best fit for him, IMO), but the current trend has been to use guys like him as a 6th man. Kanter, Jefferson, Monroe are all similar kinds of guys who have found themselves as a 6th man. I think Vuc needs to continue growing on defense and reach Gasol level of impact if he has any hope of hitting Tier 3. Otherwise Tier 4 is his ceiling, to me. But I respect your opinion to value him higher. Again, it would depend on the Buyer and their need for a player like him.

[pepe1991]

CJ Mccullum is probably tear 2 IMO. I would also downgrade Cousins to tear 3.

Pretty good read tho. Lot of effort. Keep up good work !

[axl_c_cool]

Great work Ben, really interesting read. I agree on Aaron, I see his floor as Crowder and ceiling as Draymond Green. Great work dude

[BadMofoPimp]

Due to Vooch's salary and contributions, his value is probably much higher than haters put him at.

[BadMofoPimp]

CJ Mccullum is probably tear 2 IMO. I would also downgrade Cousins to tear 3.

Pretty good read tho. Lot of effort. Keep up good work !

For some reason being Portland has both CJ and Lilliard while that hasn't translated to a great team, I don't really think CJ with his porous defense would make for a Tier 2 player yet.

[pepe1991]

CJ Mccullum is probably tear 2 IMO. I would also downgrade Cousins to tear 3.

Pretty good read tho. Lot of effort. Keep up good work !

For some reason being Portland has both CJ and Lilliard while that hasn't translated to a great team, I don't really think CJ with his porous defense would make for a Tier 2 player yet.

On other team you could probably play McCullum at PG and you would be fine or pair him with somebody like Baverley and have good results. Him and Lillard are too bad of a defenders to play with each other. However, when Nurkić was healthy they looked impressive as a team.

[Nightman]

Great job on this, thanks for taking the time to write it all out. I think your valuations on most of our guys might be a little high, but not by too much. Maybe, similarly to what Uncommon said, I'm just jaded about our team at this point.

[npiper17]

I like how you've broken this down Ben. Thinking over our play since the all star break (and the way our roster stands at the moment), I think our starters appeared to be able to hold their own with most teams (that awful Bulls loss aside). The bench was horrible. So could we look at something like this?

PG: draft or FA / Payton (would start if no pg taken in the draft) / Augustin (look for trade but keep as 3rd pg if no takers)

SG: Ross / draft or FA / Hezonja (entirely dependant on the benefits of a summer's worth of work in Orlando that Mario will be undertaking according to him)

SF: draft or FA / Fournier / Hezonja (entirely dependant on the benefits of a summer's worth of work in Orlando that Mario will be undertaking according to him)

PF: Gordon / draft or FA

C: Biyombo / Vucevic / Zimmerman

I would target Patty Mills as a potentially affordable free agent and look to fill the hole created by whichever position is picked with our first first rounder with our second first rounder.

Obviously the above is highly dependant on which position we draft. I haven't taken into account possible trades either.

I prefer starting Biyombo over Vuc as I think each can have more success with those respective lineups.

The reserve unit would likely be Payton / Fournier / Hezonja / draft or FA / Vuc which isn't too bad imo.

[Bensational]

I like how you've broken this down Ben. Thinking over our play since the all star break (and the way our roster stands at the moment), I think our starters appeared to be able to hold their own with most teams (that awful Bulls loss aside). The bench was horrible. So could we look at something like this?

PG: draft or FA / Payton (would start if no pg taken in the draft) / Augustin (look for trade but keep as 3rd pg if no takers)

SG: Ross / draft or FA / Hezonja (entirely dependant on the benefits of a summer's worth of work in Orlando that Mario will be undertaking according to him)

SF: draft or FA / Fournier / Hezonja (entirely dependant on the benefits of a summer's worth of work in Orlando that Mario will be undertaking according to him)

PF: Gordon / draft or FA

C: Biyombo / Vucevic / Zimmerman

I would target Patty Mills as a potentially affordable free agent and look to fill the hole created by whichever position is picked with our first first rounder with our second first rounder.

Obviously the above is highly dependant on which position we draft. I haven't taken into account possible trades either.

I prefer starting Biyombo over Vuc as I think each can have more success with those respective lineups.

The reserve unit would likely be Payton / Fournier / Hezonja / draft or FA / Vuc which isn't too bad imo.

I'm a fan of Payton and Gordon, but at this point I'd just like the team to bring in a convincing star level talent, even if that relegates one to the bench, or requires them to be traded (although preferably we can trade other pieces and not them).

A bench of Payton/Fournier/Vuc would be arguably the strongest bench in the league, but to justify that we'd need to have a more capable looking starting lineup. The PG and SF positions would need to be some very strong scorers to carry the other 3/open up options for them.

I don't think any rookie is going to be an instant impact guy, so whoever we draft will be bench/6th man material to start the season. Record pending, they might battle their way into the SL by the end of the season, but I'm skeptical. So to replace the starting PG and SF we'd need to sign FAs (only have enough money for one big FA), and/or trade for them - which would likely impact our depth.

[Bensational]

CJ Mccullum is probably tear 2 IMO. I would also downgrade Cousins to tear 3.

Pretty good read tho. Lot of effort. Keep up good work !

Yeah, I think it's justifiable to move players up and down the list. There's a case to be made for CJ, but then there's also the possibility he benefits greatly from sharing the court with Lillard. The jury is still out on Cousins for me. I'll be intrigued to see how he and Davis do next season, and how the pecking order settles into place once it's all said and done.

[Bensational]

Great job on this, thanks for taking the time to write it all out. I think your valuations on most of our guys might be a little high, but not by too much. Maybe, similarly to what Uncommon said, I'm just jaded about our team at this point.

Thanks man.

I think that for us to upgrade in talent we're either going to have to give up a lot of assets to get it done (ie, at least 3 of Draft Pick/Gordon/Payton/Fournier/Vuc/Hezonja to get someone like Butler), or we might be able to get better value on a riskier option, like Paul George.

If we pursue a deal like that, it would need to be around draft time, so we've got time to use FA to try and plug the holes where we've traded off talent/depth. That would come down to something like, "who's going to give you a better chance to win and be truly competitive? Draft Pick + Fournier + Vuc/Hezonja or Paul George + Paul Millsap/Gallinari?"

Biyombo/(Vuc?)
Gordon/(Hezonja?)
Millsap/?
George/Ross
Payton/Augustin

[JF5]

I agree with the evaluations except the tiers...

Vucevic - Tier 3/4... Very versatile player (Not elite) from every spectrum on the game. Provides a consistent post game, jump shooting, rebounding, passing, decent defense (suspect generally). Best player to run the offense through on this team. Could be run as a 3rd option on a good team with his skill-set. Considered just a Starter/6th man combo on most teams.

Fournier - Tier 4... Offense first and a very good shooter, can create for himself. Solid defender when he's not defending the best player. At his best as the 3rd/4th scorer. Starter/6th man in a good situation.

Payton - Tier 4/5... Very versatile, as he's a good passer/rebounder/man defender and gets to the rim and scores it at a good percentage. Not elite in any category... Below average defender Overall (PNR, Rotation, Overall Awareness). Poor scorer/shooter. Best around star scorers/shooters. Would be considered Fringe Starter/6th Man in a good situation.

Gordon - Tier 4/5... Glue guy, Very aggressive and plays through intangibles... Very good finisher and Smart/good defender and active at all times. Stretch 4 with still very minimal skill on the offensive end. Really good man defender, but not elite rim protector/defender. Potential starter on a team with a rim protector/star scorers. At this point of his career would be considered a Fringe Starer (Around the right players) probable 6th Man/Role player on a good team.

Ross - Tier 5... 3-D player who can get hot at any time. Just a Fringe Starter (Around the right players)/ probable bench role player...

Biyombo - Tier 5... Rim protecting role player best served on a team with higher IQ/Star players. Not a player that can play more than 20-25 minutes a night. Bench role player

Augustin - Tier 6... solid veteran role player that can get an offense jump started. Terrible defender... Bench Role player

Hezonja - Tier 7... He's pretty horrible though he's improved his defense some... He's got a long way to go before he's even a competent/reliable role player. bench warmer on any other team.

Zimmerman - Tier 7/8... - Should be in the D-League....

[Bensational]

Vucevic - Tier 3/4... Very versatile player (Not elite) from every spectrum on the game. Provides a consistent post game, jump shooting, rebounding, passing, decent defense (suspect generally). Best player to run the offense through on this team. Could be run as a 3rd option on a good team with his skill-set. Considered just a Starter/6th man combo on most teams.

I think there's definitely scope for Vuc to be a Tier 4, but no chance he belongs near the Tier 3 names. All the names I listed there are big difference makers to their teams, and a lot are reliable 20ppg guys. Vuc can't even post 20ppg as someone who's supposed to be "our best player". I agree that he's got a very versatile offensive game, but if you swapped him with any of the names on that list, he wouldn't make anywhere near the impact that they do.

Tier 4, he absolutely has a case to make to be amongst those names. Whether other teams value him that high, though, is another matter. I suspect that if we could've landed Tier 4 value for him in a trade, then we would've jumped on it since we have a perfectly capable backup who can fill in for the short term, and we need an upgrade on the wings. But I just don't think players like him pull the value fans expect them to. Nurkic pulled Plumlee and a 1st round pick, Kanter was traded for an expiring, Monroe couldn't be given away, Jefferson was allowed to walk away from Charlotte.

[npiper17]

I like how you've broken this down Ben. Thinking over our play since the all star break (and the way our roster stands at the moment), I think our starters appeared to be able to hold their own with most teams (that awful Bulls loss aside). The bench was horrible. So could we look at something like this?

PG: draft or FA / Payton (would start if no pg taken in the draft) / Augustin (look for trade but keep as 3rd pg if no takers)

SG: Ross / draft or FA / Hezonja (entirely dependant on the benefits of a summer's worth of work in Orlando that Mario will be undertaking according to him)

SF: draft or FA / Fournier / Hezonja (entirely dependant on the benefits of a summer's worth of work in Orlando that Mario will be undertaking according to him)

PF: Gordon / draft or FA

C: Biyombo / Vucevic / Zimmerman

I would target Patty Mills as a potentially affordable free agent and look to fill the hole created by whichever position is picked with our first first rounder with our second first rounder.

Obviously the above is highly dependant on which position we draft. I haven't taken into account possible trades either.

I prefer starting Biyombo over Vuc as I think each can have more success with those respective lineups.

The reserve unit would likely be Payton / Fournier / Hezonja / draft or FA / Vuc which isn't too bad imo.

I'm a fan of Payton and Gordon, but at this point I'd just like the team to bring in a convincing star level talent, even if that relegates one to the bench, or requires them to be traded (although preferably we can trade other pieces and not them).

A bench of Payton/Fournier/Vuc would be arguably the strongest bench in the league, but to justify that we'd need to have a more capable looking starting lineup. The PG and SF positions would need to be some very strong scorers to carry the other 3/open up options for them.

I don't think any rookie is going to be an instant impact guy, so whoever we draft will be bench/6th man material to start the season. Record pending, they might battle their way into the SL by the end of the season, but I'm skeptical. So to replace the starting PG and SF we'd need to sign FAs (only have enough money for one big FA), and/or trade for them - which would likely impact our depth.

Not sure I agree re the rookie. If we pick top 3 then I'd expect them to start and make somewhat of an instant impact especially if the guy is Fultz or Jackson. If it's someone like Isaac then I agree in terms of easing them into the starting lineup.

I agree on being open re trades. No one is untouchable and that includes AG even though I like his upside / potential (think people forget that he's college age still).

[tiderulz]

I agree with the evaluations except the tiers...

Vucevic - Tier 3/4... Very versatile player (Not elite) from every spectrum on the game. Provides a consistent post game, jump shooting, rebounding, passing, decent defense (suspect generally). Best player to run the offense through on this team. Could be run as a 3rd option on a good team with his skill-set. Considered just a Starter/6th man combo on most teams.

i havent seen a consistent post game from him in 3 years