Official Speculation Thread 2017 Volume XII - The Training (Camp) arc

[bargnanimvp]

Look, I get that we have been bad for 5 years in a row now, but others have been bad for longer or worse in even more recent memory, but take a look at this round up from ESPN

2017 NBA Summer Forecast: ESPN predicts the season

Our complete lack of presence within EVERY category is the most damning. We are not even interesting in our badness - we are irrelevant. Click into the story on each category and see we aren't even barely mentioned in the "Others Receiving Votes" categories. Isaac got ZERO votes for best Rookie, even Markkanen got one vote!

The only mention I found was our prized #6 Isaac pick for Worst Newcomer of the Year.

I will tell you that I work in Marketing and where this team is as a brand both nationally AND locally is a really bad place to be - what you do not want is for no one to talk or think about you. If Martins is the businessman people seem to think he is he better figure out how to get this turned around quickly. Irrelevance is death in today's hyper-competitive world.

By the way, this is why I still believe we should have chosen Smith over Isaac - this year we needed to look for talent and charisma (in game play) - a shy project was just a stupid business decision for 2017.

This is what happens when you don't commit to a full rebuild and keep drafting just outside the legit star range in the draft year after year. We get some interesting young talent but we are just going to treadmill as a terrible team with no identity and no chance at the top picks we need to turn things around. This is why i don't mind a big trade because as it stands I just see us heading for another rebuild.

[SOUL]

Look, I get that we have been bad for 5 years in a row now, but others have been bad for longer or worse in even more recent memory, but take a look at this round up from ESPN

2017 NBA Summer Forecast: ESPN predicts the season

Our complete lack of presence within EVERY category is the most damning. We are not even interesting in our badness - we are irrelevant. Click into the story on each category and see we aren't even barely mentioned in the "Others Receiving Votes" categories. Isaac got ZERO votes for best Rookie, even Markkanen got one vote!

The only mention I found was our prized #6 Isaac pick for Worst Newcomer of the Year.

I will tell you that I work in Marketing and where this team is as a brand both nationally AND locally is a really bad place to be - what you do not want is for no one to talk or think about you. If Martins is the businessman people seem to think he is he better figure out how to get this turned around quickly. Irrelevance is death in today's hyper-competitive world.

By the way, this is why I still believe we should have chosen Smith over Isaac - this year we needed to look for talent and charisma (in game play) - a shy project was just a stupid business decision for 2017.

Draft picks aren't business decisions. You pick the player who you think can help us the most on the court, and our FO thought it was Isaac. Debating the value of a draft pick based on an "ESPN Summer Forecast" is pretty silly, seeing that very few ESPN NBA analysts actually watch any teams outside of the top 10 with any regularity.

[PennytoShaq]

Look, I get that we have been bad for 5 years in a row now, but others have been bad for longer or worse in even more recent memory, but take a look at this round up from ESPN

2017 NBA Summer Forecast: ESPN predicts the season

Our complete lack of presence within EVERY category is the most damning. We are not even interesting in our badness - we are irrelevant. Click into the story on each category and see we aren't even barely mentioned in the "Others Receiving Votes" categories. Isaac got ZERO votes for best Rookie, even Markkanen got one vote!

The only mention I found was our prized #6 Isaac pick for Worst Newcomer of the Year.

I will tell you that I work in Marketing and where this team is as a brand both nationally AND locally is a really bad place to be - what you do not want is for no one to talk or think about you. If Martins is the businessman people seem to think he is he better figure out how to get this turned around quickly. Irrelevance is death in today's hyper-competitive world.

By the way, this is why I still believe we should have chosen Smith over Isaac - this year we needed to look for talent and charisma (in game play) - a shy project was just a stupid business decision for 2017.

This is meaningless to me. Let's see how the season plays out. Talking about rookies..etc in the offseason is fruitless speculation.

When we drafted Dwight Howard, we were barely talked about besides getting the top pick. Suddenly Dwight won the dunk contest and we started winning games, got Stan, got Rashard, set an NBA record for 3's and finally got media coverage.

My point is that just drafting Dennis Smith would not have moved the needle nearly as much as you think.

[ralphie9898]

Look, I get that we have been bad for 5 years in a row now, but others have been bad for longer or worse in even more recent memory, but take a look at this round up from ESPN

2017 NBA Summer Forecast: ESPN predicts the season

Our complete lack of presence within EVERY category is the most damning. We are not even interesting in our badness - we are irrelevant. Click into the story on each category and see we aren't even barely mentioned in the "Others Receiving Votes" categories. Isaac got ZERO votes for best Rookie, even Markkanen got one vote!

The only mention I found was our prized #6 Isaac pick for Worst Newcomer of the Year.

I will tell you that I work in Marketing and where this team is as a brand both nationally AND locally is a really bad place to be - what you do not want is for no one to talk or think about you. If Martins is the businessman people seem to think he is he better figure out how to get this turned around quickly. Irrelevance is death in today's hyper-competitive world.

By the way, this is why I still believe we should have chosen Smith over Isaac - this year we needed to look for talent and charisma (in game play) - a shy project was just a stupid business decision for 2017.

This is meaningless to me. Let's see how the season plays out. Talking about rookies..etc in the offseason is fruitless speculation.

When we drafted Dwight Howard, we were barely talked about besides getting the top pick. Suddenly Dwight won the dunk contest and we started winning games, got Stan, got Rashard, set an NBA record for 3's and finally got media coverage.

My point is that just drafting Dennis Smith would not have moved the needle nearly as much as you think.

I agree. Also I feel the reason why Isaac isn't getting any pub for rookie of the year is because his impact isn't expected to be immediate.. But he has gotten plenty of pub in that he could be the best rookie out of this draft in time. Isaac is more of a project who is playing on a bad team where he may not even get to start. Isaac has more potential then Smith as it stands right now. Smith though might have a higher floor but only time will tell how these guys end up. But Isaac was just as good of a pick as Smith would have been.

[Skybox]

Go back over our picks...2, 4 &10(?), 5, 6...it's not like we didn't get high picks. You can also defend them all to some degree. The draft is a crapshoot with all of the one and dones. Please don't go on about Giannis and Myles...would have been great but far from obvious. It's very tough to rebuild these days because 5 teams are tanking every year, draft picks are a crapshoot and stars eat the cap. I like the methodical approach the new FO took so far...solid pieces with versatile skill sets...NO sure things anymore. Philly looks smart right now but they're still counting on a degree of injury recovery that is unlikely. I don't care about ROY but I'd like a most improved somewhere on our roster...EP, Mario, AG?

[yoyojw17]

Go back over our picks...2, 4 &10(?), 5, 6...it's not like we didn't get high picks. You can also defend them all to some degree. The draft is a crapshoot with all of the one and dones. Please don't go on about Giannis and Myles...would have been great but far from obvious. It's very tough to rebuild these days because 5 teams are tanking every year, draft picks are a crapshoot and stars eat the cap. I like the methodical approach the new FO took so far...solid pieces with versatile skill sets...NO sure things anymore. Philly looks smart right now but they're still counting on a degree of injury recovery that is unlikely. I don't care about ROY but I'd like a most improved somewhere on our roster...EP, Mario, AG?

I think we will still find some gold or silver pieces out of those draft picks.... and maybe hit it rich with some platinum.

[j-ragg]

Tanking is definitely imperfect. But it also gives the best odds.

[nymets1]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/247185/Porter-Bagley-Ayton-Doncic-Comprise-Top-4-Of-ESPNs-First-2018-Mock-Draft

Marvin Bagley is in the top 4 now, thats new.

[YosemiteSam]

Draft picks aren't business decisions. You pick the player who you think can help us the most on the court, and our FO thought it was Isaac. Debating the value of a draft pick based on an "ESPN Summer Forecast" is pretty silly, seeing that very few ESPN NBA analysts actually watch any teams outside of the top 10 with any regularity.

Everything is a business decision. This is not an altruistic enterprise. The goal is to maximize profit.

My opinion was that we have been bad for too long to take a shot on a project with potential upside that plays the same position as another key piece. It is all risk. I'm just saying I would have tried for a shorter term potential return that also might drive casual fan interest. To me that was Smith much more than Isaac.

But to be honest I would trade anything but a non top 10 protected 2018 pick for Kyrie. That to me is our play from both a business and basketball POV

[Shady Franchise]

Go back over our picks...2, 4 &10(?), 5, 6...it's not like we didn't get high picks. You can also defend them all to some degree. The draft is a crapshoot with all of the one and dones. Please don't go on about Giannis and Myles...would have been great but far from obvious. It's very tough to rebuild these days because 5 teams are tanking every year, draft picks are a crapshoot and stars eat the cap. I like the methodical approach the new FO took so far...solid pieces with versatile skill sets...NO sure things anymore. Philly looks smart right now but they're still counting on a degree of injury recovery that is unlikely. I don't care about ROY but I'd like a most improved somewhere on our roster...EP, Mario, AG?

I think we will still find some gold or silver pieces out of those draft picks.... and maybe hit it rich with some platinum.

Leave it to the Magic fan to settle for platinum, when they could could be mining for Bitcoin!

[RickB-Orlando]

Draft picks aren't business decisions. You pick the player who you think can help us the most on the court, and our FO thought it was Isaac. Debating the value of a draft pick based on an "ESPN Summer Forecast" is pretty silly, seeing that very few ESPN NBA analysts actually watch any teams outside of the top 10 with any regularity.

Everything is a business decision. This is not an altruistic enterprise. The goal is to maximize profit.

My opinion was that we have been bad for too long to take a shot on a project with potential upside that plays the same position as another key piece. It is all risk. I'm just saying I would have tried for a shorter term potential return that also might drive casual fan interest. To me that was Smith much more than Isaac.

But to be honest I would trade anything but a non top 10 protected 2018 pick for Kyrie. That to me is our play from both a business and basketball POV

I completely agree with this. The only player I would hesitate on including - and it may not stop me - would be Isaac.
I'd prefer to keep Fournier as well because I think he will pair very well next to Kyrie, but if Cleveland insisted, you have to make the move. I would hope Hammond and/or Weltman are doing everything they can to convince CLeveland that a package of AG and Elf plus a pick is well worth Kyrie plus a salary dump of some sort.

[YosemiteSam]

Draft picks aren't business decisions. You pick the player who you think can help us the most on the court, and our FO thought it was Isaac. Debating the value of a draft pick based on an "ESPN Summer Forecast" is pretty silly, seeing that very few ESPN NBA analysts actually watch any teams outside of the top 10 with any regularity.

Everything is a business decision. This is not an altruistic enterprise. The goal is to maximize profit.

My opinion was that we have been bad for too long to take a shot on a project with potential upside that plays the same position as another key piece. It is all risk. I'm just saying I would have tried for a shorter term potential return that also might drive casual fan interest. To me that was Smith much more than Isaac.

But to be honest I would trade anything but a non top 10 protected 2018 pick for Kyrie. That to me is our play from both a business and basketball POV

I completely agree with this. The only player I would hesitate on including - and it may not stop me - would be Isaac.
I'd prefer to keep Fournier as well because I think he will pair very well next to Kyrie, but if Cleveland insisted, you have to make the move. I would hope Hammond and/or Weltman are doing everything they can to convince CLeveland that a package of AG and Elf plus a pick is well worth Kyrie plus a salary dump of some sort.

i think Isaac has to be included to interest the Cavs. Would a deal like Isaac, Fournier, Elfrid and our 2018 pick top 5 protected for Kyrie and a bad contract get it done? Leaves us with a stating 5 of Kyrie, Ross, Simmons, AG and Vuc and a bench rotation of Mack, JR Smith, Mario, Afflalo, Speights and Biz. I like that if Cavs value our package

[MagicMatic]

Draft picks aren't business decisions. You pick the player who you think can help us the most on the court, and our FO thought it was Isaac. Debating the value of a draft pick based on an "ESPN Summer Forecast" is pretty silly, seeing that very few ESPN NBA analysts actually watch any teams outside of the top 10 with any regularity.

My opinion was that we have been bad for too long to take a shot on a project with potential upside that plays the same position as another key piece. It is all risk. I'm just saying I would have tried for a shorter term potential return that also might drive casual fan interest. To me that was Smith much more than Isaac.

This was my main issue with drafting Isaac. He may be good - who knows.

Despite his inconsistencies AG is still considered by most to be our best asset. Why would we double down on a PF/ C in Isaac hoping he can adjust positionally in a similar way? Moreover, instead of taking Smith we further double down by signing Mack.

We better hope Isaac is the second coming of Giannis as some of the posters here actually think and not Marvin Williams.

We are now extremely close to a position that ties us to fully committing to a roster that has led us nowhere.

[Magic_Kingdom]

Tanking is definitely imperfect. But it also gives the best odds.

It gives you the best odds at a high draft pick for that particular year. But sustained tanking as a strategy is not the best rebuilding strategy, and the evidence supports that. There have been some really good articles written about this, but all you have to do is look at the most successful teams in the league. Very few tanked, hit the jackpot with star players taken in the Top 3 of the Draft, and then eventually became conference finalists with drafted superstars. OKC is one of the few glaring exceptions.

Having said that, Hennigan tanked, but so did about 4 other teams each year. There are simply no guarantees with tanking. There is no guarantee that you will finish with the worst record – it would have been almost impossible to out-tank Philly during Hennigan’s tenure, they sat all their best players for almost entire seasons. And there is no guarantee that if you get a Top 3 or 4 pick, a superstar will be there. Or even if there is, there is no guarantee you will choose wisely.

Here are the conference finalists from last season:

Houston had one Top 3 pick – Harden – that they didn’t even draft, surrounded by a bunch of lower draft picks.

On Golden State, Steph was a #7 pick, Klay a #11, and Draymond second-round.

Cleveland stock-piled high draft picks for a few years and sucked with them, until they got LeBron back. But they didn't even intentionally tank, they just bottomed out after LeBron left the first time.

The Celtics were led by the #60 pick in the draft. Their only Top 3 pick (Brown) was a role player. They traded for Horford, a top draft pick on the downside of his career.

[OrlandoNed]

Tanking is definitely imperfect. But it also gives the best odds.

It gives you the best odds at a high draft pick for that particular year. But sustained tanking as a strategy is not the best rebuilding strategy, and the evidence supports that. There have been some really good articles written about this, but all you have to do is look at the most successful teams in the league. Very few tanked, hit the jackpot with star players taken in the Top 3 of the Draft, and then eventually became conference finalists with drafted superstars. OKC is one of the few glaring exceptions.

Having said that, Hennigan tanked, but so did about 4 other teams each year. There are simply no guarantees with tanking. There is no guarantee that you will finish with the worst record – it would have been almost impossible to out-tank Philly during Hennigan’s tenure, they sat all their best players for almost entire seasons. And there is no guarantee that if you get a Top 3 or 4 pick, a superstar will be there. Or even if there is, there is no guarantee you will choose wisely.

Here are the conference finalists from last season:

Houston had one Top 3 pick – Harden – that they didn’t even draft, surrounded by a bunch of lower draft picks.

On Golden State, Steph was a #7 pick, Klay a #11, and Draymond second-round.

Cleveland stock-piled high draft picks for a few years and sucked with them, until they got LeBron back. But they didn't even intentionally tank, they just bottomed out after LeBron left the first time.

The Celtics were led by the #60 pick in the draft. Their only Top 3 pick (Brown) was a role player. They traded for Horford, a top draft pick on the downside of his career.

For an unlucky, small market team like Orlando, tanking properly at least gives a fanbase hope. When a team aimlessly wanders just outside the playoffs and at the end of the lottery for an indeterminate amount of time, only homers are delusional enough to have hope.

[PennytoShaq]

Tanking doesn't give a fanbase hope. That is ridiculous. Half of the Orlando fanbase doesn't even know what tanking is and they sure do not know what "tanking properly" means. All they did was whine and stop buying tickets when Rob tanked year 1 after telling everyone we would suck for a while. We got the #2 pick and no one cared.

When Philly was tanking, no one went to games and there was national criticism levied against them constantly. And they still are not good. I say that because since everyone wants to anoint DSJ the best draft pick for the Magic, it is fair for me to also live in the present as well. And in the present, Minny and Philly still both suck until proven otherwise.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Draft picks aren't business decisions. You pick the player who you think can help us the most on the court, and our FO thought it was Isaac. Debating the value of a draft pick based on an "ESPN Summer Forecast" is pretty silly, seeing that very few ESPN NBA analysts actually watch any teams outside of the top 10 with any regularity.

My opinion was that we have been bad for too long to take a shot on a project with potential upside that plays the same position as another key piece. It is all risk. I'm just saying I would have tried for a shorter term potential return that also might drive casual fan interest. To me that was Smith much more than Isaac.

This was my main issue with drafting Isaac. He may be good - who knows.

Despite his inconsistencies AG is still considered by most to be our best asset. Why would we double down on a PF/ C in Isaac hoping he can adjust positionally in a similar way? Moreover, instead of taking Smith we further double down by signing Mack.

We better hope Isaac is the second coming of Giannis as some of the posters here actually think and not Marvin Williams.

We are now extremely close to a position that ties us to fully committing to a roster that has led us nowhere.

nailed it... now there is nothing saying DSJ will be All Star Level but he could've been BPA at 6 while also fitting a need of scoring from the bench and being a productive PG.

At the end of the day we most likely would be in the same situation. Right now Isaac is backup to AG unless/until he out performs AG <- not likely but who knows. DSJ would be backup to EP unless/until he out performs EP <- more likely but still difficult to see.

Isaac is somewhat position less so that helps but Magic already have a 6th, 7th, and possibly 8th man so his minutes most likely will be limited. Only way I see Isaac getting a ton of minutes 25+ is if we're already out of playoffs come ASB.

For right now DSJ will show more value in years 1 & 2. Isaac's true value most likely won't show up until year 3 or 4.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Tanking doesn't give a fanbase hope. That is ridiculous. Half of the Orlando fanbase doesn't even know what tanking is and they sure do not know what "tanking properly" means. All they did was whine and stop buying tickets when Rob tanked year 1 after telling everyone we would suck for a while. We got the #2 pick and no one cared.

When Philly was tanking, no one went to games and there was national criticism levied against them constantly. And they still are not good. I say that because since everyone wants to anoint DSJ the best draft pick for the Magic, it is fair for me to also live in the present as well. And in the present, Minny and Philly still both suck until proven otherwise.

Tanking doesn't give a fanbase hope but at least I know we won't be making dumb trades or FA signings to push for a playoff spot only to stay in the lotto while said team that tanked has almost come full circle with their rebuild.

Magic got the #2 pick in what has been stated as the WORST draft class of all time. Small amount of local fans go to Magic games now, its full of tourists and company people being ritzy. We probably have one of the biggest attendances for visiting teams and its very obvious on TV and Live.

And in present I'd take Minny or Philly's roster over our roster any day of the week. Each of those teams has a star or 2 to build around. Magic have O stars, some decent vet presence and a roster littered with 6th 7th men.

[drsd]

ESPN prediction link

When I read this ESPN story, I mostly agree. Where do I not: Indiana and New York will not be above Orlando. As such, this means that I predict the Sixers, Pistons and Magic to fight out the 8th, 9th and 10th seeds !


GO MAGIC!



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[drsd]

Small amount of local fans go to Magic games now, its full of tourists and company people being ritzy. We probably have one of the biggest attendances for visiting teams and its very obvious on TV and Live.

The good news for hard-core fans is that this keeps the Magic profitable, and other bad teams lacked such a "luxury."



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