Official Speculation Thread ‘17-18’: XVIII: The Long Wait Continues

[OrlandoNed]

Bigger sh*tshow... the Orlando Magic franchise or the Orlando Magic Real GM forum?

Yes.

[PrimeThyme]

This last month I think things have been particularly pessimistic because most of the talk has been centered around this upcoming season and for most of us there is very little if anything at all outside of Isaac (whos already been hurt) and Bamba (who will be brought along slowly) to get excited about. I have been very supportive and am excited about certain things this FO has done like the drafting of Isaac and Bamba (dedicated two threads to my excitement for them), the AG resigning, and some of the reshaping of the basketball operations that Weltman, in particular, has done but as whole, it has been very underwhelming. Combine their overall underwhelming start with these last 6 years and I think there is a reason for quite a bit of pessimism.

I think that most of us agree with you about most of this, but I also think most of us are ready to move onto the next conversation.

Yes, we have sucked for a while, and it looks pretty likely that we are going to suck again. But with the season about to start, I'm ready to focus on what we have and be a fan for at least a few weeks.

I'm not trying to tell you to shut up or anything. I'm just trying to explain why I (and I suspect others) don't find all the negative ranting very appealing at this time of the year even if we don't necessarily disagree with some of your primary conclusions.

Yeah, I can understand that to a certain extent, i think it’s hard for most of us to just move on though considering the fact that it’s all very relevant with the season starting tomorrow.

I think one thing I’ve tried to make a point of this year for myself, is to not get caught up in the honeymoon period of the start of this season again. Two years ago it was with Vogel’s first year and I tried talking myself into this team being a playoff team and within a month it was clear they wouldn’t win 30 games, last year we got off to that hot start and I talked my self into thinking that Vogel had finally seen the light as a coach and that this core of players had finally made the jump and were ready to make a run at a playoff spot but that also became very clear soon after that it wouldn’t get close to happening.

So essentially, I’m just trying not to fool myself into thinking that this core of players is something their not. With bringing all the same players back for the third straight year after subpar results i just haven’t had the same excitement that i usually do for the start of a season. With that being said though, I won’t ruin that experience for others either. Most of my focus this year is going to be on the positives like Isaac and Bamba anyways and a good portion of my time should be spent in the draft threads.

[PennytoShaq]

Orlando trades Nikola Vucevic but keeps Aaron Gordon

And thus marks at least the third time I've predicted a Vucevic trade. I might be wrong again! Vooch is a good player. His ability to facilitate from the elbow -- something he improves every season -- compensates at least a bit for Orlando's point guard sinkhole. His jumper makes it feasible for Steve Clifford to play Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, and Vucevic at the same time. He can mentor Mo Bamba.

But Vucevic's contract is finally expiring. If you are going to lose a good player for nothing, you have to at least try to get something back for him. Orlando doesn't want long-term salary, so they might not be able to find a suitable return. Vucevic would be amazing with the Lakers, but it's hard to find a workable trade. (Vucevic also makes some sense as an extension candidate, but the Magic will likely choose cap flexibility over more Vooch.)

Insiders see a Gordon trade as inevitable. Isaac and Bamba are the frontcourt of the future; Gordon is not a wing. The Magic designed Gordon's declining contract to be a trade asset. Flip him for perimeter guys and be done with it.

But Gordon just turned 23. He has played much of his career out of position. Clifford is his fifth head coach in five seasons. Once Gordon figures out what he is, and what he isn't, he could be an All-Star. The Magic need good players, regardless of position. They are scarred from watching Victor Oladipo blossom elsewhere. If Gordon surges, he becomes both more tradable and more valuable to the Magic. Orlando wants to be competent. Isaac and Bamba are NBA babies.

These predictions cover only the next calendar year. The Magic don't have to rush.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24988629/zach-lowe-crazy-predictions-2018-19-nba-season

Crazy how many of us have almost said this to the t but others claim the FO has done nothing but sit on their hands.

[PennytoShaq]

but facts are facts; I can't really disagree with anything pepe said.

I've lost count since how many years ago we've been mentioned in any relevant NBA conversation. Being a fan of this team has been really tough.

Last time anybody outside Magic fans even thought about a team was when Hennigan traded Howard at October 10th 2012. It was over 6 years ago.

On that night Hannigan said

“A primary goal for our basketball team is to achieve sustainability while maintaining a long-term vision. We feel this deal puts us in a position to begin building in that direction,” said Hennigan. “In addition to the six players joining our team, we will be in a position to maximize our salary cap flexibility in the near future, as well as utilize the multiple draft picks we have acquired going forward.”

So, Weltman isn't first Magic GM that sounds smarts when he talks.
I don't even know how i got myself into a debate here, i only posted Magic starting lineups in last 4 years, pointing that Evan, Vuc and Gordon were starters in all of them.

In general,from NBA perspective and 30 teams, Magic are simply irrelevant.

Sports illustrated made after 2017 season hopless ranking and Magic were 3rd , link here if anybody cares
https://www.si.com/nba/2017/03/22/nba-hopeless-rebuilding-teams-knicks-nets-lakers

Zach Lowe wrote huge article about playoff expetations for every team, Magic were ranked, ofc, in "BAD" and this is all he wrote about team

• There is a version of the Magic that wins 35 games. I'm not convinced we see it, or that the coaching staff lands upon it early enough. They are another obvious candidate for a tanky trade.

• The rest of these teams are bad, and I've talked about them in other places. Let's get started already.

Bleacher report best- worst case scenario article for every team

Best Case

New head coach Steve Clifford proves a big-man whisperer and somehow strikes the right balance to maximize the impacts of Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac and Mohamed Bamba. Gordon provides 20 points every night, while Isaac and Bamba spearhead a climb from a tie for 19th in defensive efficiency into the upper third.

The Magic find a defense-driven identity built around youth, length and athleticism. They rarely win games—Nikola Vucevic, Jonathon Simmons and/or D.J. Augustin are moved for assets—but should have a shot at a high-profile scoring prospect such as Duke's R.J. Barrett or Indiana's Romeo Langford.



Worst Case

The Gordon-Isaac-Bamba frontcourt proves as puzzling as it looks on paper. Clifford abandons hope of making it work, gives Vucevic the bulk of big-man minutes and runs the offense through Evan Fournier. Melvin Frazier, Wesley Iwundu and Jerian Grant get similarly buried behind older players, and Orlando's future forecast fails to brighten.

The Magic flirt with 30 victories, meaning they'll likely draft in the back half of the top 10 again.

So it's not just me or Magic Matic or J-ragg or Prime Thyme posting things like that. Whole nba world says same things about Magic.

The likelihood of the “worst case” in those scenarios is higher by far. Bamba isn’t starting as the #6 pick, JI has barely played minutes / been injured in year 2, Vuc is still starting, and AG looks just as inconsistent as he always has been.

I also really enjoyed -
“They rarely win games—Nikola Vucevic, Jonathon Simmons and/or D.J. Augustin are moved for assets—but should have a shot at a high-profile scoring prospect such as Duke's R.J. Barrett or Indiana's Romeo Langford.”

Yeah right. This is the Orlando Magic. They’ll do the exact opposite and a handful of fans will somehow justify their decisions while the rest of us think “WTF... again??? You can’t be serious.” When management allows the seasoned no-nonsense coach (Skiles, Vogel, Clifford) to ride Vuc, Evan, and co. into the sunset of a playoffless postseason one last time before the majority of the rosters contracts expire. Can’t wait for all that capspace...

You told me yesterday- “its not personal” so please tell me who this “handful” of fans is that you decided to bring up and why you constantly insist on believing only the bleakest of scenarios will occur?

[pepe1991]

Interesting article on OPP about Gordon shot selection and how to rework it

https://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2018/10/16/17981382/aaron-gordon-shot-selection-orlando-magic-2018-19-nba-season-preview


Answer to penny ( to avoid page long replys) why i only belive that worst/bad scenarios will happen? Because they are only consistant thing that happend to Orlando Magic team since first signs of Dwightmare in 2011. That's almost 8 years long period of grimm.

If you sort ways how team can get better (not Magic but any team)
- inner growth of talent
Realistic for Magic- highly doubt any of BIG will be superstar level of talent on offense ,therfore it's not really realistic to expect that to pull you from bottom to top. Maybe to middle

- FA
for years teams like Magic are simply non-factor. They have to overpay for guys like Biyombo or Jeff Green.

- draft
In past didn't turn to be savior when team needed it to be.

-trades
Would not bet my money that Magic can trade AND keep star if they get one in trade,epecially now when stars write down teams they will have desire to resign, other teams because of it stay off.

[fendilim]

Interesting article on OPP about Gordon shot selection and how to rework it

https://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2018/10/16/17981382/aaron-gordon-shot-selection-orlando-magic-2018-19-nba-season-preview

THIS!

[OrlChamps2030]

I don't mean to speak for anyone else, but at the end of the day the extreme pessimism towards EVERYTHING on this board just gets tiresome.

I'm not suggesting everyone should support every single thing the Magic do no matter what, but there are ways to question what they're doing without being insufferable.

Some of us want to be optimistic about things and try and actually enjoy the 30th season of Magic basketball.

but facts are facts; I can't really disagree with anything pepe said.

I've lost count since how many years ago we've been mentioned in any relevant NBA conversation. Being a fan of this team has been really tough.

Last time anybody outside Magic fans even thought about a team was when Hennigan traded Howard at October 10th 2012. It was over 6 years ago.

On that night Hannigan said

“A primary goal for our basketball team is to achieve sustainability while maintaining a long-term vision. We feel this deal puts us in a position to begin building in that direction,” said Hennigan. “In addition to the six players joining our team, we will be in a position to maximize our salary cap flexibility in the near future, as well as utilize the multiple draft picks we have acquired going forward.”

So, Weltman isn't first Magic GM that sounds smarts when he talks.
I don't even know how i got myself into a debate here, i only posted Magic starting lineups in last 4 years, pointing that Evan, Vuc and Gordon were starters in all of them.

In general,from NBA perspective and 30 teams, Magic are simply irrelevant.

Sports illustrated made after 2017 season hopless ranking and Magic were 3rd , link here if anybody cares
https://www.si.com/nba/2017/03/22/nba-hopeless-rebuilding-teams-knicks-nets-lakers

Zach Lowe wrote huge article about playoff expetations for every team, Magic were ranked, ofc, in "BAD" and this is all he wrote about team

• There is a version of the Magic that wins 35 games. I'm not convinced we see it, or that the coaching staff lands upon it early enough. They are another obvious candidate for a tanky trade.

• The rest of these teams are bad, and I've talked about them in other places. Let's get started already.

Bleacher report best- worst case scenario article for every team

Best Case

New head coach Steve Clifford proves a big-man whisperer and somehow strikes the right balance to maximize the impacts of Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac and Mohamed Bamba. Gordon provides 20 points every night, while Isaac and Bamba spearhead a climb from a tie for 19th in defensive efficiency into the upper third.

The Magic find a defense-driven identity built around youth, length and athleticism. They rarely win games—Nikola Vucevic, Jonathon Simmons and/or D.J. Augustin are moved for assets—but should have a shot at a high-profile scoring prospect such as Duke's R.J. Barrett or Indiana's Romeo Langford.



Worst Case

The Gordon-Isaac-Bamba frontcourt proves as puzzling as it looks on paper. Clifford abandons hope of making it work, gives Vucevic the bulk of big-man minutes and runs the offense through Evan Fournier. Melvin Frazier, Wesley Iwundu and Jerian Grant get similarly buried behind older players, and Orlando's future forecast fails to brighten.

The Magic flirt with 30 victories, meaning they'll likely draft in the back half of the top 10 again.

So it's not just me or Magic Matic or J-ragg or Prime Thyme posting things like that. Whole nba world says same things about Magic. You look at bleacher report best case, and even in article it's pointed out that best case for Magic is to tank.

“Worst case” should be titled “likely scenario”

[PennytoShaq]

Interesting article on OPP about Gordon shot selection and how to rework it

https://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2018/10/16/17981382/aaron-gordon-shot-selection-orlando-magic-2018-19-nba-season-preview


Answer to penny ( to avoid page long replys) why i only belive that worst/bad scenarios will happen? Because they are only consistant thing that happend to Orlando Magic team since first signs of Dwightmare in 2011. That's almost 8 years long period of grimm.

If you sort ways how team can get better (not Magic but any team)
- inner growth of talent
Realistic for Magic- highly doubt any of BIG will be superstar level of talent on offense ,therfore it's not really realistic to expect that to pull you from bottom to top. Maybe to middle

- FA
for years teams like Magic are simply non-factor. They have to overpay for guys like Biyombo or Jeff Green.

- draft
In past didn't turn to be savior when team needed it to be.

-trades
Would not bet my money that Magic can trade AND keep star if they get one in trade,epecially now when stars write down teams they will have desire to resign, other teams because of it stay off.

This is all based on the past. Your FA example was the Hennigan era.

The play is obvious - Magic are collecting assets and freeing the cap up to get out of some of the very holes you just brought up. Now more NBA writers than ever are saying that they think Vuc is gone and many think AG is gone. This summer you and others were arguing about AG and the max and I said it 100x that he would probably get 18 a year at most. I think his average is 17 and he is on a very trade friendly deal. That was a huge win by the FO because I do believe they will trade AG and want their frontcourt to be Bamba and JI.

In this case they do have the luxury of time so they can see how AG does right now. The reality is that making an impulsive trade will only repeat history for us.

Point is - some of you are complaining about the franchise due to the past 9 years. The new guys are trying to not repeat history by making smarter ands more calculated decisions, yet they still get critiicized anyway, even when they have clearly built a path for us to actually be a player in the trade market again with AG/Vuc and Ross’s deals.

Assuming the worst all the time because Bizmack or Hennigan just does not make much sense to me.

[OrlChamps2030]

Ignoring the past 9 years is difficult to do. Professional sports don’t occur in a vacuum. We still have the same ownership group and Martins passing down influence. Unlike the real world, past performance in the NBA is a strong indicator of the future. I have a hard time forming an opinion of this front office that’s any more positive than “wait and see”

[PrimeThyme]

Read on Twitter

[PennytoShaq]

Ignoring the past 9 years is difficult to do. Professional sports don’t occur in a vacuum. We still have the same ownership group and Martins passing down influence. Unlike the real world, past performance in the NBA is a strong indicator of the future. I have a hard time forming an opinion of this front office that’s any more positive than “wait and see”

Not what I am saying here - The new FO has to undo prior decisions before they can make their own. That is why saying “we signed Bizmack and Jeff Green” as a reason to be negative now does not bolster an argument against them. It only shows what they had to deal with when they got here.

They actually managed to move Biz and get us a backup PG on an expiring. Yet somehow people want to assume that they aren’t trying to build the value of other guys that they want to move. AG’s deal is clearly a tradable contract. We are not married to him unless he becomes a star like we all want to see. I have not seen one bad contract handed out by this FO yet. So that is a strong break from the past and an indicator of what they can do.

“Wait and see” Sure. I can agree with that. But we have people here assuming that the worst will happen already. Just go back a few months and read what these guys were saying about Clifford, Bamba, Frazier..etc. It was all negative. And of course they assumed Clifford would not play Isaac or Bamba much as well. Also many assumed we would give AG a max deal and be married to him. That was a major concern of one of the most negative guys here. The same guy who complained non stop about the FO cutting ties with Mario and predicted him to be a “vital contributor” for the Knicks.

Guess what - none of those things actually happened. Yet people want to assume the worst anyway. Makes no sense. “Wait and see” is a fair stance and I can agree with that. Not what I am speaking towards though.

[j-ragg]

Orlando trades Nikola Vucevic but keeps Aaron Gordon

And thus marks at least the third time I've predicted a Vucevic trade. I might be wrong again! Vooch is a good player. His ability to facilitate from the elbow -- something he improves every season -- compensates at least a bit for Orlando's point guard sinkhole. His jumper makes it feasible for Steve Clifford to play Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, and Vucevic at the same time. He can mentor Mo Bamba.

But Vucevic's contract is finally expiring. If you are going to lose a good player for nothing, you have to at least try to get something back for him. Orlando doesn't want long-term salary, so they might not be able to find a suitable return. Vucevic would be amazing with the Lakers, but it's hard to find a workable trade. (Vucevic also makes some sense as an extension candidate, but the Magic will likely choose cap flexibility over more Vooch.)

Insiders see a Gordon trade as inevitable. Isaac and Bamba are the frontcourt of the future; Gordon is not a wing. The Magic designed Gordon's declining contract to be a trade asset. Flip him for perimeter guys and be done with it.

But Gordon just turned 23. He has played much of his career out of position. Clifford is his fifth head coach in five seasons. Once Gordon figures out what he is, and what he isn't, he could be an All-Star. The Magic need good players, regardless of position. They are scarred from watching Victor Oladipo blossom elsewhere. If Gordon surges, he becomes both more tradable and more valuable to the Magic. Orlando wants to be competent. Isaac and Bamba are NBA babies.

These predictions cover only the next calendar year. The Magic don't have to rush.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24988629/zach-lowe-crazy-predictions-2018-19-nba-season

Crazy how many of us have almost said this to the t but others claim the FO has done nothing but sit on their hands.

Where does the article disprove that? All it says is Lowe predicts Vuc to be traded, like he did every year prior lol.

[FFBlitzace]

Read on Twitter

They're gonna "forget" to invite AG to a lot of Captain meetings.

[PennytoShaq]

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24988629/zach-lowe-crazy-predictions-2018-19-nba-season

Crazy how many of us have almost said this to the t but others claim the FO has done nothing but sit on their hands.

Where does the article disprove that? All it says is Lowe predicts Vuc to be traded, like he did every year prior lol.

“But Gordon just turned 23. He has played much of his career out of position. Clifford is his fifth head coach in five seasons. Once Gordon figures out what he is, and what he isn't, he could be an All-Star. The Magic need good players, regardless of position. They are scarred from watching Victor Oladipo blossom elsewhere. If Gordon surges, he becomes both more tradable and more valuable to the Magic. Orlando wants to be competent. Isaac and Bamba are NBA babies.

These predictions cover only the next calendar year. The Magic don't have to rush.”

It clearly says more than that right there. It is what some of us have been saying for a while. It takes a little time before you can pull the trigger on some of these deals. Not worth being impatient over.

[PrimeThyme]

Crazy how many of us have almost said this to the t but others claim the FO has done nothing but sit on their hands.

Where does the article disprove that? All it says is Lowe predicts Vuc to be traded, like he did every year prior lol.

“But Gordon just turned 23. He has played much of his career out of position. Clifford is his fifth head coach in five seasons. Once Gordon figures out what he is, and what he isn't, he could be an All-Star. The Magic need good players, regardless of position. They are scarred from watching Victor Oladipo blossom elsewhere. If Gordon surges, he becomes both more tradable and more valuable to the Magic. Orlando wants to be competent. Isaac and Bamba are NBA babies.

These predictions cover only the next calendar year. The Magic don't have to rush.”

It clearly says more than that right there. It is what some of us have been saying for a while. It takes a little time before you can pull the trigger on some of these deals. Not worth being impatient over.

Who was denying that his deal only gets more valuable as the years go on? Its one of the reasons I praised the deal, its designed that way. Its also why I feel like giving BIG an audition for the next two seasons is the best path forward because if it doesn't work out we have AG on a really good deal that will have more value then on the trade market and if it does work then we have a really scary defensive core. The Vuc contract is a different story though, his contract is not getting more valuable as time passes and now the more likely outcome is his contract expires at the end of the season.

[PennytoShaq]

Where does the article disprove that? All it says is Lowe predicts Vuc to be traded, like he did every year prior lol.

“But Gordon just turned 23. He has played much of his career out of position. Clifford is his fifth head coach in five seasons. Once Gordon figures out what he is, and what he isn't, he could be an All-Star. The Magic need good players, regardless of position. They are scarred from watching Victor Oladipo blossom elsewhere. If Gordon surges, he becomes both more tradable and more valuable to the Magic. Orlando wants to be competent. Isaac and Bamba are NBA babies.

These predictions cover only the next calendar year. The Magic don't have to rush.”

It clearly says more than that right there. It is what some of us have been saying for a while. It takes a little time before you can pull the trigger on some of these deals. Not worth being impatient over.

Who was denying that his deal only gets more valuable as the years go on? Its one of the reasons I praised the deal, its designed that way. Its also why I feel like giving BIG an audition for the next two seasons is the best path forward because if it doesn't work out we have AG on a really good deal that will have more value then on the trade market and if it does work then we have a really scary defensive core. The Vuc contract is a different story though, his contract is not getting more valuable as time passes and now the more likely outcome is his contract expires at the end of the season.

I never was speaking just about the Vuc deal though in relation to this article or anything else. Not sure why you are saying that.

We could very well be trying to move the guy right now. Do we know that we aren’t? Make him the captain, rave about him to media..these are all things I have zero problem with currently.

I can’t think of anyone here who does not want to see Vuc traded. But I’d like to see us make a good trade and not chuck the guy away for nothing. That makes no sense to me. At the end of the day it still is a 17 and 10 guy on an expiring deal. We need to get a decent value back.

An AG/Vuc package at the trade deadline could be a very powerful offer and that could be what the FO is waiting on. Give AG some time to show what he can do here and if not, get a serious wing player for those 2.

[pepe1991]

can we just lock this thread and open new one since last 10 pages are nothing but same endless debate that went nowhere?

[Howard Mass]

can we just lock this thread and open new one since last 10 pages are nothing but same endless debate that went nowhere?

We actually need to lock this as it is at 100 pages.