Game 2: Orlando Magic (1-0) @ Atlanta Hawks (1-0) - 7:00 PM ET

[GelbeWand09]

I’m just not worried yet at all.

If the Magic are still a bottom 3 offense after a month or two, then sure. We can start to panic a little bit if that happens.

But two games is hardly enough of a sample size to make sweeping generalizations. Literally 8 of the 10 players right now are shooting significantly below their career averages. That’s not going to continue to happen.

It’s all just small sample size noise.

Now that said... if the Magic really are going to have a top 5 defense, which seems at least plausible given their personnel, there’s just no way on earth they’re going to miss the East playoffs.

Keep defending like they have been defending and the shots are going to starting dropping eventually.

Yea for me the same. My 2 biggest concerns are 1 or 2 out of Vuc, DJ & Ross reverting back to there career average, which could be enough to end as 8th place or slightly miss the PO.
2nd: If the offense doesnt come back quickly & we start losing, the bad habits of this team comes back again & our defense regress.

For the 2nd part i trust Clifford this doesnt happen, but it won't surprise anyway.

[Bergmaniac]

It was frankly amazing that this game was close given our horrendous outside shooting, not just from 3, but from midrange too. If Ross had taken it easy over the summer after getting his contract and continues to struggle, we could be in trouble, hopefully it's just a cold streak. This is still a pretty limited team offensively and we can't afford to have one of the few capable scorers playing so badly.

Fultz is showing very good signs, but I didn't like him taking so many threes. That shot still doesn't look and he really doesn't end to take them early in the shot clock off the dribble like he did after he hit two before, especially against a mediocre defense.

Bamba still looks lost too often out there and doesn't use his size effectively.

[swarlesbarkley]

Hope the boys bounce back tonight and are a little more motivated to win this one (especially Vuc).

[King Ken]

Hawks shot 51%./quote]

Yes, but that was in a defensive scheme that forced 18 turnovers and allowed only 9 offensive rebounds.

Plus: Orlando forced the Hawks in to 26 fouls, and STILL had 15 more FG attempts: FIFTEEN !

For me this game was actually well defended and the opponent FG% for the Magic was misleading.
(And usually for me the single greatest stat to determine the victor if FG%).

As a Hawk fan, I felt this was a tougher game than the previous ones. You guys move the ball better, your defense was even more sound, Issac is a monster and your chemistry seems better.

Atlanta just has a MUCH better personnel grouping this year. Replaced guys who didn't fit our system on either side of the court with guys who do who are 6'9, 7'1 or better wingspan and move well without the ball not to mention can defend their asses off. We also have a backup PF which we didn't last year and of course most valuable is Trae so far has just been much better than even 2nd half of the season Trae, especially on defense. Where he has made the greatest strides.

Orlando is legit. Still one of my favs for a top 4-5 seed.

[VFX]

phase 1
Assemble a team of non scorers/shooters.
phase 2
act surprised they cant shoot or score.

checked...

[pepe1991]

I’m just not worried yet at all.

If the Magic are still a bottom 3 offense after a month or two, then sure. We can start to panic a little bit if that happens.

But two games is hardly enough of a sample size to make sweeping generalizations. Literally 8 of the 10 players right now are shooting significantly below their career averages. That’s not going to continue to happen.

It’s all just small sample size noise.

Now that said... if the Magic really are going to have a top 5 defense, which seems at least plausible given their personnel, there’s just no way on earth they’re going to miss the East playoffs.

Keep defending like they have been defending and the shots are going to starting dropping eventually.

I'm not worried yet and i keep repeating that we need 10-15 games to draw any conclusions but in same time offense against two of last year's worst defense raised some questions to me. But in same time it's impossible to shoot worst, so whatever.

After Spurs game, at November 16 i think we will have much better outlook on situation especially because we will at that point already have games vs good teams like Philly, Nuggets, Bucks, Pacers and some wild ones that i'm looking forward ( against Memphis, i can't wait to watch Morant and JJJr )

[ezzzp]

I'm not sure where you are seeing this. Gordon hasn't been imposing himself at the offensive end. He hasn't really been bad, though he hasn't shot the ball well as of yet. He isn't as rudimentary in how he attacks the basket and he has done a good job at drawing contact. He has looked good in running the pick-and-roll with Vucevic. Gordon's usage is 16.8% at the moment.

You are describing Evan. He has been emboldened by all the praise he got for his performance at the FIBA World Cup. It isn't good for our offense and he wasn't actually good this summer. I'm hopeful that we get Fultz into the starting lineup sooner rather than later.

USG does not account for plays were he just grinds offense to a halt and is forced to give up the ball after not being able to breakdown defender or create a shot for himself.

In the first two games, Gordon has been on-ball more than anyone except for the two PG's DJ/Fultz (see image link below). In that time, he has been highly inefficient (.441 TS%) when he has managed to get off a shot. AG literally has the 3d worse On-Court ORTG (89.8) on Magic; only Bamba and Ross have dragged the offense down more when they are on the court.

Fournier, on the other hand, has been more efficient (.558 TS%) and done it in less touch time...and he has drawn more FTA's (9) than AG (8)...plus he has the 4th best On-Court ORTG for the Magic.

Except that is not happening. Gordon initiates the offense. This is scripted. I don't know why Clifford does this, but it's how he wants to run his offense. This is why Gordon's touch time is higher. He also has Gordon initiating inbound plays. Fournier seldom brings the ball up the floor. He runs to a corner so that he can curl off of an elbow screen.

I don't know why I would care about touch time? Basketball is broken down into possessions. The goal isn't to fire up a shot as soon as possible. USG% tells us how aggressive someone is offensively. FTr tells us how good they are at drawing free throws. Fournier has clearly handled the ball more than Gordon. Fournier is clearly shooting more than Gordon. Gordon is clearly drawing free throws at a higher rate than Fournier. I don't know why you take basic facts and try to distort them. Well... nevermind. I do know.

Here are some fun facts:
- Gordon is -16 in 47 minutes with Fournier on the floor. He is +6 in 12 minutes without Fournier on the floor.
- Vucevic is -24 in 55 minutes with Fournier on the floor. He is +18 in 10 minutes without Fournier on the floor.
- Fournier was the only Orlando Magic player to finish the Cleveland game with a negative plus/minus (-10).
- Fournier has a team worst -22 plus/minus through the first two games.

This would all seem really meaningful if it wasn't really dumb to make broad assertions based on minuscule data sets.

What's even dumber than coming to conclusions from small samples is to use raw plus/minus . Plus/Minus is a useless and terribly flawed stat to measure individual performance, even at volume sample size...it's really only meaningful for lineup evaluation.

Here are the real fun facts...





And btw, FIBA and anyone who watched the World Cup disagrees with your take that "Fournier wasn't good this summer." He was literally selected as World Cup 1st team Tournament All-Star.

Touch time matters because BALL MOVEMENT is one of the most important factors for modern offenses. When someone who stops the offense (which AG did last season, did preseason, and when on-ball has this season) + is also an inefficient scorer (which AG has been his entire career) then it kills the offense.

...and AG isn't the only one who brings the ball up court, Fournier does as well. In fact, anyone that has watched the Magic play knows that except for the C's, the rebounder almost always grabs-and-goes; and on made baskets its more often than not the PG's that do.

Clifford mixes up play initiators...its absolute not scripted.

In this tiny 2 game sample, Fournier has been hands down better with the ball in his hands than AG...but that's hardly news since Fournier has always been better at it in the past as well.

[Skin]

1st loss of the year and some Magic fans are like...

[Skin]

Hawks shot 51%./quote]

Yes, but that was in a defensive scheme that forced 18 turnovers and allowed only 9 offensive rebounds.

Plus: Orlando forced the Hawks in to 26 fouls, and STILL had 15 more FG attempts: FIFTEEN !

For me this game was actually well defended and the opponent FG% for the Magic was misleading.
(And usually for me the single greatest stat to determine the victor if FG%).

As a Hawk fan, I felt this was a tougher game than the previous ones. You guys move the ball better, your defense was even more sound, Issac is a monster and your chemistry seems better.

Atlanta just has a MUCH better personnel grouping this year. Replaced guys who didn't fit our system on either side of the court with guys who do who are 6'9, 7'1 or better wingspan and move well without the ball not to mention can defend their asses off. We also have a backup PF which we didn't last year and of course most valuable is Trae so far has just been much better than even 2nd half of the season Trae, especially on defense. Where he has made the greatest strides.

Orlando is legit. Still one of my favs for a top 4-5 seed.

Although acquiring Markelle has been a nice recovery project...

We once had a dream....

[King Ken]

As a Hawk fan, I felt this was a tougher game than the previous ones. You guys move the ball better, your defense was even more sound, Issac is a monster and your chemistry seems better.

Atlanta just has a MUCH better personnel grouping this year. Replaced guys who didn't fit our system on either side of the court with guys who do who are 6'9, 7'1 or better wingspan and move well without the ball not to mention can defend their asses off. We also have a backup PF which we didn't last year and of course most valuable is Trae so far has just been much better than even 2nd half of the season Trae, especially on defense. Where he has made the greatest strides.

Orlando is legit. Still one of my favs for a top 4-5 seed.

Although acquiring Markelle has been a nice recovery project...

We once had a dream....

As a Hawk fan, I am glad you didn't. It would be a nightmare trying to guard him for the next 15-20 years. I still remember when Bron was in Miami.

[Furinkazan]

phase 1
Assemble a team of non scorers/shooters.
phase 2
act surprised they cant shoot or score.

checked...

lmao surprised pikachu

[Furinkazan]

1st loss of the year and some Magic fans are like...

its not about just 1st loss but more like > Already a 1st loss and against Atl.
ATL should be an easy W if this team is where some people say it is or aspires.

[Xatticus]

USG does not account for plays were he just grinds offense to a halt and is forced to give up the ball after not being able to breakdown defender or create a shot for himself.

In the first two games, Gordon has been on-ball more than anyone except for the two PG's DJ/Fultz (see image link below). In that time, he has been highly inefficient (.441 TS%) when he has managed to get off a shot. AG literally has the 3d worse On-Court ORTG (89.8) on Magic; only Bamba and Ross have dragged the offense down more when they are on the court.

Fournier, on the other hand, has been more efficient (.558 TS%) and done it in less touch time...and he has drawn more FTA's (9) than AG (8)...plus he has the 4th best On-Court ORTG for the Magic.

Except that is not happening. Gordon initiates the offense. This is scripted. I don't know why Clifford does this, but it's how he wants to run his offense. This is why Gordon's touch time is higher. He also has Gordon initiating inbound plays. Fournier seldom brings the ball up the floor. He runs to a corner so that he can curl off of an elbow screen.

I don't know why I would care about touch time? Basketball is broken down into possessions. The goal isn't to fire up a shot as soon as possible. USG% tells us how aggressive someone is offensively. FTr tells us how good they are at drawing free throws. Fournier has clearly handled the ball more than Gordon. Fournier is clearly shooting more than Gordon. Gordon is clearly drawing free throws at a higher rate than Fournier. I don't know why you take basic facts and try to distort them. Well... nevermind. I do know.

Here are some fun facts:
- Gordon is -16 in 47 minutes with Fournier on the floor. He is +6 in 12 minutes without Fournier on the floor.
- Vucevic is -24 in 55 minutes with Fournier on the floor. He is +18 in 10 minutes without Fournier on the floor.
- Fournier was the only Orlando Magic player to finish the Cleveland game with a negative plus/minus (-10).
- Fournier has a team worst -22 plus/minus through the first two games.

This would all seem really meaningful if it wasn't really dumb to make broad assertions based on minuscule data sets.

What's even dumber than coming to conclusions from small samples is to use raw plus/minus . Plus/Minus is a useless and terribly flawed stat to measure individual performance, even at volume sample size...it's really only meaningful for lineup evaluation.

Here are the real fun facts...





And btw, FIBA and anyone who watched the World Cup disagrees with your take that "Fournier wasn't good this summer." He was literally selected as World Cup 1st team Tournament All-Star.

Touch time matters because BALL MOVEMENT is one of the most important factors for modern offenses. When someone who stops the offense (which AG did last season, did preseason, and when on-ball has this season) + is also an inefficient scorer (which AG has been his entire career) then it kills the offense.

...and AG isn't the only one who brings the ball up court, Fournier does as well. In fact, anyone that has watched the Magic play knows that except for the C's, the rebounder almost always grabs-and-goes; and on made baskets its more often than not the PG's that do.

Clifford mixes up play initiators...its absolute not scripted.

In this tiny 2 game sample, Fournier has been hands down better with the ball in his hands than AG...but that's hardly news since Fournier has always been better at it in the past as well.

What agenda? I made no assertions. I simply put data out there that I knew would trigger you. It is a fact that Orlando has been -22 with Fournier on the floor and +27 with him off the floor over the first two games. This is why he is far and away worst on the team in net differential at the moment. You can’t have it both ways. You can’t argue that two games worth of data is meaningful and then dismiss data because it is only a two-game sample.

This is where I should remind you of what kicked this whole damned thing off. Someone argued that Gordon is forcing his offense, which obviously hasn’t been true in the first two games (16.8 USG%). I pointed out that Fournier has been, which is also obviously true (29.0 USG%). I also stated that this is not good for our offense. This is where you are really getting confused. Comparing the ORtg rates for Fournier and Gordon is NOT supporting your argument. Fournier’s usage rate is way up and our offense has been crap. We are 29th in offensive efficiency. We finished 22nd in offensive efficiency last year. Meaningful sample size or not, your argument is not logical. Pointing out that Fournier has a higher ORtg than Gordon is not evidence that Fournier’s increased usage has been good for our offense.

Yes. I absolutely disagree with the individuals that voted Fournier to the FIBA 2019 World Cup All-Star team. He finished with a TS% of .514 on a USG% of 36.8. That’s not good. That's why he finished 7th in points per game overall despite being 2nd in field goal attempts per game overall.

Touch time ≠ ball movement. It is not measuring ball movement. You cannot use them interchangeably and you cannot simply insinuate a relationship that you cannot prove. By your logic, Augustin and Fultz are the worst ball movers on the team and Isaac and Bamba are the best.

Watch the first two possessions of the Hawks game. The Magic ran set plays after the first two made baskets by Atlanta. These are scripted plays. Gordon picked up the ball from Augustin in the backcourt and initiated those plays. No… Gordon doesn’t initiate all of Orlando’s set plays, but he does initiate some of them. Fournier doesn’t. He runs to a corner. This is entirely different from what happens when you are pushing the ball in transition after a miss. Learn basketball.

[ezzzp]

Except that is not happening. Gordon initiates the offense. This is scripted. I don't know why Clifford does this, but it's how he wants to run his offense. This is why Gordon's touch time is higher. He also has Gordon initiating inbound plays. Fournier seldom brings the ball up the floor. He runs to a corner so that he can curl off of an elbow screen.

I don't know why I would care about touch time? Basketball is broken down into possessions. The goal isn't to fire up a shot as soon as possible. USG% tells us how aggressive someone is offensively. FTr tells us how good they are at drawing free throws. Fournier has clearly handled the ball more than Gordon. Fournier is clearly shooting more than Gordon. Gordon is clearly drawing free throws at a higher rate than Fournier. I don't know why you take basic facts and try to distort them. Well... nevermind. I do know.

Here are some fun facts:
- Gordon is -16 in 47 minutes with Fournier on the floor. He is +6 in 12 minutes without Fournier on the floor.
- Vucevic is -24 in 55 minutes with Fournier on the floor. He is +18 in 10 minutes without Fournier on the floor.
- Fournier was the only Orlando Magic player to finish the Cleveland game with a negative plus/minus (-10).
- Fournier has a team worst -22 plus/minus through the first two games.

This would all seem really meaningful if it wasn't really dumb to make broad assertions based on minuscule data sets.

What's even dumber than coming to conclusions from small samples is to use raw plus/minus . Plus/Minus is a useless and terribly flawed stat to measure individual performance, even at volume sample size...it's really only meaningful for lineup evaluation.

Here are the real fun facts...





And btw, FIBA and anyone who watched the World Cup disagrees with your take that "Fournier wasn't good this summer." He was literally selected as World Cup 1st team Tournament All-Star.

Touch time matters because BALL MOVEMENT is one of the most important factors for modern offenses. When someone who stops the offense (which AG did last season, did preseason, and when on-ball has this season) + is also an inefficient scorer (which AG has been his entire career) then it kills the offense.

...and AG isn't the only one who brings the ball up court, Fournier does as well. In fact, anyone that has watched the Magic play knows that except for the C's, the rebounder almost always grabs-and-goes; and on made baskets its more often than not the PG's that do.

Clifford mixes up play initiators...its absolute not scripted.

In this tiny 2 game sample, Fournier has been hands down better with the ball in his hands than AG...but that's hardly news since Fournier has always been better at it in the past as well.

What agenda? I made no assertions. I simply put data out there that I knew would trigger you. It is a fact that Orlando has been -22 with Fournier on the floor and +27 with him off the floor over the first two games. This is why he is far and away worst on the team in net differential at the moment. You can’t have it both ways. You can’t argue that two games worth of data is meaningful and then dismiss data because it is only a two-game sample.

This is where I should remind you of what kicked this whole damned thing off. Someone argued that Gordon is forcing his offense, which obviously hasn’t been true in the first two games (16.8 USG%). I pointed out that Fournier has been, which is also obviously true (29.0 USG%). I also stated that this is not good for our offense. This is where you are really getting confused. Comparing the ORtg rates for Fournier and Gordon is NOT supporting your argument. Fournier’s usage rate is way up and our offense has been crap. We are 29th in offensive efficiency. We finished 22nd in offensive efficiency last year. Meaningful sample size or not, your argument is not logical. Pointing out that Fournier has a higher ORtg than Gordon is not evidence that Fournier’s increased usage has been good for our offense.

Yes. I absolutely disagree with the individuals that voted Fournier to the FIBA 2019 World Cup All-Star team. He finished with a TS% of .514 on a USG% of 36.8. That’s not good. That's why he finished 7th in points per game overall despite being 2nd in field goal attempts per game overall.

Touch time ≠ ball movement. It is not measuring ball movement. You cannot use them interchangeably and you cannot simply insinuate a relationship that you cannot prove. By your logic, Augustin and Fultz are the worst ball movers on the team and Isaac and Bamba are the best.

Watch the first two possessions of the Hawks game. The Magic ran set plays after the first two made baskets by Atlanta. These are scripted plays. Gordon picked up the ball from Augustin in the backcourt and initiated those plays. No… Gordon doesn’t initiate all of Orlando’s set plays, but he does initiate some of them. Fournier doesn’t. He runs to a corner. This is entirely different from what happens when you are pushing the ball in transition after a miss. Learn basketball.

Stop crying because I put out real facts that totally destroyed your agenda, not that ridiculous +/- crap.