What if we fall out of the top 3 again?

[Magicfanatic82]

Something else I think about in regards to my OP. If we do win a title one day, is it just me or is anyone else dredding the amount of fake Magic fans that will magically appear. “Oh I’ve liked them since Penny & Shaq” and “Oh I’ve liked them since Dwight & Jameer”. You’ll see a bunch of fakes wearing hats, jerseys, and yada yada which will be annoying because all the REAL, lifelong, passionate, and by then patient fans will just blend in with the rest of them. See GSW for an example

I would welcome them. Its hard on the die hards to watch every game. Not everyone is built to follow a rough product.

[Skybox]

Something else I think about in regards to my OP. If we do win a title one day, is it just me or is anyone else dredding the amount of fake Magic fans that will magically appear. “Oh I’ve liked them since Penny & Shaq” and “Oh I’ve liked them since Dwight & Jameer”. You’ll see a bunch of fakes wearing hats, jerseys, and yada yada which will be annoying because all the REAL, lifelong, passionate, and by then patient fans will just blend in with the rest of them. See GSW for an example

I would welcome them. Its hard on the die hards to watch every game. Not everyone is built to follow a rough product.

I would welcome them too...if only because I don't want to be rooting for the Las Vegas Magic. That shiny "new" arena that "locked them into ORL" is now 12 years old and no longer a big chip for the city. I think we're okay for now, but this IS a business...there's a big international contingent on here that don't buy tickets (not to mention locals that don't buy tickets).

[Magic_Johnny12]

Some people have AJG going number 1…he’s a perfect consolation prize.

[jonbob17]

It's probable, or a 60% chance...then you draft one of the guys available. Personally I think the top 5 will be a little more clear by the time the draft rolls around. I still expect guys to rise sort of like Barnes, Wagner, and Giddey.
I could see Duren and Griffin even being discussed in top 3-4 by the time its all said and done...assuming they continue to improve. I think most of the draft boards on the internet is just a bunch of copying each other this time of year, don't want to looks stupid.

[Xatticus]

It's probable, or a 60% chance...then you draft one of the guys available. Personally I think the top 5 will be a little more clear by the time the draft rolls around. I still expect guys to rise sort of like Barnes, Wagner, and Giddey.
I could see Duren and Griffin even being discussed in top 3-4 by the time its all said and done...assuming they continue to improve. I think most of the draft boards on the internet is just a bunch of copying each other this time of year, don't want to looks stupid.

I don't see it with Duren. His skill set is rather limited. He just isn't the sort of guy that goes high in the draft these days.

[Creativetran]

I have not stressed wins this year because the tank/draft doesn't matter as much this year. It would be nice to grab one of those guys for sure but I don't think any of them are generational talents to worry about. I could be wrong but I just don't see complete players there. I do like Jabari's combination of shooting and age though.

Im not stressing this year either, mainly because I don't LOVE anyone and can see a sure fire allstar

[purpleswordfish]

It's why tanking is such a weird strategy to me. You're purposely being bad to "earn" a 14% chance at the top pick. The Magic have been tanking for most of the last ten years and what has it gotten them? Not one single #1 pick.

[zaymon]

The question should be what if we fall into top 3. Even with best odds its more likely we will be picking 4-5 so thats the range we should expect really. Picking higher is pure luck we cant build our whole strategy around it.

[Magicfanatic82]

At least a last place finish locks up a top 5 pick. Falling to 6 or 7 would be a tough sell to a tired fan base.

[jonbob17]

It's probable, or a 60% chance...then you draft one of the guys available. Personally I think the top 5 will be a little more clear by the time the draft rolls around. I still expect guys to rise sort of like Barnes, Wagner, and Giddey.
I could see Duren and Griffin even being discussed in top 3-4 by the time its all said and done...assuming they continue to improve. I think most of the draft boards on the internet is just a bunch of copying each other this time of year, don't want to looks stupid.

I don't see it with Duren. His skill set is rather limited. He just isn't the sort of guy that goes high in the draft these days.

I think with Duren he will be one of those guys that NBA teams look hard at, where the draft writers gloss over because the lack of stats this year. He just turned 18, he should be a senior in high school. 7'5" or so wingspan.

I know we all hear bigs are devalued, blah blah blah. I've said it a million times myself, but seems like the best bigs are still extremely valuable in the league, and that's not a reaction to Embiid dropping fifty on us last night or Jokic's 49 point triple double (also)last night.

If Duren continues to play well, i think he will settle in close to the top 5. He's big, he's athletic, and he's projectable. Do I want him on the Magic, no, not really, but there is a decent chance he turns into a dominant big, even if he isn't stepping out to the arc any time soon.

[jonbob17]

It's why tanking is such a weird strategy to me. You're purposely being bad to "earn" a 14% chance at the top pick. The Magic have been tanking for most of the last ten years and what has it gotten them? Not one single #1 pick.

Tanking accomplishes two things...gives you better odds at the top picks, but it secures the floor. If we finish with the worst record, we have 100% chance of picking in the top 5. San Antonio, the 7th worst team for instance, would have a 33% chance at a top 5 pick(very good odds), but most likely the are picking 8th.

The NBA certainly has penalized the tank strategy, but you still sort of have dabble in it. And as for the Magic, have really been tanking at all so far? I guess you could argue that JI is being held out with that in mind. Truth is we are just a really young team, and young guys generally aren't that good at basketball as a whole. They got to learn the craft to being a winning player. Franz may be one of the exceptions to that rule, he does a lot well.

Gary Harris is a good player that probably gets traded, but they got cash that chip in while they can. Not even sure that can be considered a tank move. When we start having healthy scratches on the young guys we can call it a tank.

[Creativetran]

I have not stressed wins this year because the tank/draft doesn't matter as much this year. It would be nice to grab one of those guys for sure but I don't think any of them are generational talents to worry about. I could be wrong but I just don't see complete players there. I do like Jabari's combination of shooting and age though.

Im not stressing this year either, mainly because I don't LOVE anyone and can't see a sure fire allstar

[OrlDave]

No Paolo
No Jabari
No Chet

I know it’s early, trust me. But you got some SERIOUS talent in the top 3, and I’m scared. If the ping pong balls kick us out, I will literally be a 37yo grown man crying on the couch.

Ya know, sometimes I wonder if I’ll see my team (since I was 10yo) win a championship before I die. I really think about that

Ya know if it happens I'm pretty certain the NBA has it out for us. Here have been our picks since Dwight left (Orlando's picks, not traded assets). Here is where we've finished (reverse ranking.. if 2nd worse I say 2nd) vs where we picked.

2013 Finished 1st / Picked 2nd (-1) Dipo
2014 Finished 3rd / Picked 4th (-1) Gordon
2015 Finished 5th / Picked 5th (0) Mario
2016 Finished 11th / Picked 11th (0) - Traded to Philly
2017 Finished 5th / Picked 6th (-1) JI
2018 Finished 5th / Picked 6th (-1) Bamba
2019 Finished 16th / Picked 16th (0) Chuma
2020 Finished 15th / Picked 15th (0) Cole
2021 Finished 3rd / Picked 5th (-2) Suggs

So we haven't moved up once in 7 lottery years and we've moved down 5 times. We are -6 slots from where we ended the season overall. Other teams are taking those 6 spots. At some point we need to have this even out.

[basketballRob]

If we end up with the worst overall record, there is an 86% chance we fall in the draft.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM Forums mobile app

[jonbob17]

Ya know if it happens I'm pretty certain the NBA has it out for us. Here have been our picks since Dwight left (Orlando's picks, not traded assets). Here is where we've finished (reverse ranking.. if 2nd worse I say 2nd) vs where we picked.

2013 Finished 1st / Picked 2nd (-1) Dipo
2014 Finished 3rd / Picked 4th (-1) Gordon
2015 Finished 5th / Picked 5th (0) Mario
2016 Finished 11th / Picked 11th (0) - Traded to Philly
2017 Finished 5th / Picked 6th (-1) JI
2018 Finished 5th / Picked 6th (-1) Bamba
2019 Finished 16th / Picked 16th (0) Chuma
2020 Finished 15th / Picked 15th (0) Cole
2021 Finished 3rd / Picked 5th (-2) Suggs

So we haven't moved up once in 7 lottery years and we've moved down 5 times. We are -6 slots from where we ended the season overall. Other teams are taking those 6 spots. At some point we need to have this even out.

Gambler's fallacy?

[OrlDave]

Ya know if it happens I'm pretty certain the NBA has it out for us. Here have been our picks since Dwight left (Orlando's picks, not traded assets). Here is where we've finished (reverse ranking.. if 2nd worse I say 2nd) vs where we picked.

2013 Finished 1st / Picked 2nd (-1) Dipo
2014 Finished 3rd / Picked 4th (-1) Gordon
2015 Finished 5th / Picked 5th (0) Mario
2016 Finished 11th / Picked 11th (0) - Traded to Philly
2017 Finished 5th / Picked 6th (-1) JI
2018 Finished 5th / Picked 6th (-1) Bamba
2019 Finished 16th / Picked 16th (0) Chuma
2020 Finished 15th / Picked 15th (0) Cole
2021 Finished 3rd / Picked 5th (-2) Suggs

So we haven't moved up once in 7 lottery years and we've moved down 5 times. We are -6 slots from where we ended the season overall. Other teams are taking those 6 spots. At some point we need to have this even out.

Gambler's fallacy?

Oh sure. I mean it's possible we get screwed every time. It's possible the quarter comes up tails 500 times in a row. We've just been very very unlucky compared to other teams. On a long enough timeline, it should even out.

[RookieStar]

Look at it this way... its such a Magic thing when the draft is top heavy we never move up to be in a position to draft those guys. Yet when the draft is weak or confusing like the Dipo draft and this draft, we probably will be picking in the top

[The Effect]

No Paolo
No Jabari
No Chet

I know it’s early, trust me. But you got some SERIOUS talent in the top 3, and I’m scared. If the ping pong balls kick us out, I will literally be a 37yo grown man crying on the couch.

Ya know, sometimes I wonder if I’ll see my team (since I was 10yo) win a championship before I die. I really think about that

Ya know if it happens I'm pretty certain the NBA has it out for us. Here have been our picks since Dwight left (Orlando's picks, not traded assets). Here is where we've finished (reverse ranking.. if 2nd worse I say 2nd) vs where we picked.

2013 Finished 1st / Picked 2nd (-1) Dipo
2014 Finished 3rd / Picked 4th (-1) Gordon
2015 Finished 5th / Picked 5th (0) Mario
2016 Finished 11th / Picked 11th (0) - Traded to Philly
2017 Finished 5th / Picked 6th (-1) JI
2018 Finished 5th / Picked 6th (-1) Bamba
2019 Finished 16th / Picked 16th (0) Chuma
2020 Finished 15th / Picked 15th (0) Cole
2021 Finished 3rd / Picked 5th (-2) Suggs

So we haven't moved up once in 7 lottery years and we've moved down 5 times. We are -6 slots from where we ended the season overall. Other teams are taking those 6 spots. At some point we need to have this even out.

We actually havent moved up since Webber in 1993

If you look at all the years we missed the playoffs since 1993, weve stay at our position or moved down


1998 - Finished 12, drafted 12th
2000 - Finished 3rd, drafted 5th
2004 - Finished 1st, drafted 1st
2005 - Finished 11th, drafted 11th
2006 - Finished 11th, drafted 11th