Official Speculation Thread (Pt.LIII "Lottery/Draft"Edition)

KingRobb02 · Post #101 » by **KingRobb02** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 1:49 pm

Does anyone really want to acquire extra picks in THIS draft? Forget Trey Burke. I would much rather have 2 picks next year than this year.

Cigamodnalro · Post #102 » by **Cigamodnalro** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 1:50 pm

drsd wrote:
Neon1 wrote:You REALLY think Smart/McCollum/Burke, have a BETTER chance of becoming elite offensive players more than Noel has at becoming elite DEFENSIVELY?

Slightly off of the point.

Was reading a statistical analysis of NBA players that had an ACL injury. The conclusion is that all come back with a dramatically improved mid-range game. I guess that comes from only having stationary shooting as a training drill.

My point: the blown ACL might actually improve Noel's game.

..

Interesting

I remember reading a long time ago about Dolph Schayes, who was renowned for his ability to finish with his left hand. He said he came into the league with very little ability to dribble or shoot with that hand, and it was not until he broke his right hand playing basketball that he was forced to cultivate the skillset.

Neon1 · Post #103 » by **Neon1** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 1:51 pm

drsd wrote:
Neon1 wrote:You REALLY think Smart/McCollum/Burke, have a BETTER chance of becoming elite offensive players more than Noel has at becoming elite DEFENSIVELY?

Slightly off of the point.

Was reading a statistical analysis of NBA players that had an ACL injury. The conclusion is that all come back with a dramatically improved mid-range game. I guess that comes from only having stationary shooting as a training drill.

My point: the blown ACL might actually improve Noel's game.

..

I have no idea what you are talking about. I posted that in response to Ben's thought's about what type of player we need.

EDIT: Okay i understand what you're saying. You meant what you were going to write was slightly off point, I thought you meant my response was off point.

Neon1 · Post #104 » by **Neon1** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 1:54 pm

KingRobb02 wrote:Does anyone really want to acquire extra picks in THIS draft? Forget Trey Burke. I would much rather have 2 picks next year than this year.

We already do have 2 picks next year bro.

MoMM · Post #105 » by **MoMM** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 2:00 pm

Neon1 wrote:
KingRobb02 wrote:Does anyone really want to acquire extra picks in THIS draft? Forget Trey Burke. I would much rather have 2 picks next year than this year.

We already do have 2 picks next year bro.

But we could, for example, get the #1 pick and then trade up the other lower 2 picks for another top5 pick.

in-limbo · Post #106 » by **in-limbo** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 2:03 pm

The injury is pretty scary for some Magic fans but the doctors will either clear him or not, if he looks fine you take him number one. My concern would be that we don't have the chance to draft him, no one gets my attention after that. Hennigan will find us someone who "fits", I believe that at least like ....well, 92% :wink:

Burke would not be a bad pick and I think we end up with one them, he or Noel. The other option is we do something unexpected. Looking forward to seeing Henny and the boys do what they do.

Neon1 · Post #107 » by **Neon1** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 2:09 pm

MoMM wrote:
Neon1 wrote:We already do have 2 picks next year bro.

But we could, for example, get the #1 pick and then trade up the other lower 2 picks for another top5 pick.

What do you mean? If we get the #1 THIS year? or Next year?

G-Heel · Post #108 » by **G-Heel** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 2:44 pm

Neon1 wrote:
MoMM wrote:
Neon1 wrote:We already do have 2 picks next year bro.

But we could, for example, get the #1 pick and then trade up the other lower 2 picks for another top5 pick.

What do you mean? If we get the #1 THIS year? or Next year?

He probably meant if we get another pick, we could use the 2 lower picks to get a top 5 pick... which is unlikely. Unless those 2 picks turn out to be like 8 and 13, no one is gonna give you a top 5 pick next year.

BadMofoPimp · Post #109 » by **BadMofoPimp** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 2:46 pm

drsd wrote:Was reading a statistical analysis of NBA players that had an ACL injury. The conclusion is that all come back with a dramatically improved mid-range game. I guess that comes from only having stationary shooting as a training drill.

My point: the blown ACL might actually improve Noel's game.

..

First of all, Noel has zero mid-range game and he will have to bang against guys weighing 50lbs more on average. Dude is done. If he was smart, he would take that $10 mil insurance policy that he can get if it is considered career ending. Because, once you take that NBA contract with all those hands in it, he may not end up with much after his rookie contract is over.

OrlChamps2030 · Post #110 » by **OrlChamps2030** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 2:51 pm

BadMofoPimp wrote:
drsd wrote:Was reading a statistical analysis of NBA players that had an ACL injury. The conclusion is that all come back with a dramatically improved mid-range game. I guess that comes from only having stationary shooting as a training drill.

My point: the blown ACL might actually improve Noel's game.

..

First of all, Noel has zero mid-range game and he will have to bang against guys weighing 50lbs more on average. Dude is done. If he was smart, he would take that $10 mil insurance policy that he can get if it is considered career ending. Because, once you take that NBA contract with all those hands in it, he may not end up with much after his rookie contract is over.

Bold = Every part I facepalmed at. I guess since almost the whole post was facepalm-worthy it was like one single long facepalm. You're one helluva poster BMP, IDK why I try and take you serious at times when you blatantly troll. :lol:

Interesting point about DRSD's post: Noel actually has a nice dribble-drive game that he wasn't able to showcase at UK due to the horrible floor-spacing. I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to improve his offense a little bit by incorporating the dribble drive more while also scoring on P&R's, Alley-Oops, and Clean-ups.

KingRobb02 · Post #111 » by **KingRobb02** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 2:55 pm

MoMM wrote:
Neon1 wrote:
KingRobb02 wrote:Does anyone really want to acquire extra picks in THIS draft? Forget Trey Burke. I would much rather have 2 picks next year than this year.

We already do have 2 picks next year bro.

But we could, for example, get the #1 pick and then trade up the other lower 2 picks for another top5 pick.

Exactly. The second pick next year will probably be in the 20s and will have a 1 in 5 chance of being a contributor. If someone is willing to trade that pick and our top 5 pick this year for another lottery pick in 2014, I don't even blink before I say yes.

G-Heel · Post #112 » by **G-Heel** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 2:58 pm

BadMofoPimp wrote:
drsd wrote:Was reading a statistical analysis of NBA players that had an ACL injury. The conclusion is that all come back with a dramatically improved mid-range game. I guess that comes from only having stationary shooting as a training drill.

My point: the blown ACL might actually improve Noel's game.

..

First of all, Noel has zero mid-range game and he will have to bang against guys weighing 50lbs more on average. Dude is done. If he was smart, he would take that $10 mil insurance policy that he can get if it is considered career ending. Because, once you take that NBA contract with all those hands in it, he may not end up with much after his rookie contract is over.

Beside BBD, I'm not sure you can find many guys who has 50 lbs on Noel. With weight training and nutrition, he might approach 240 by the time he hits the floor. There are plenty of centers/forwards around his weight or not much higher. Sure he'll struggle at first against the strength of these NBA centers, but he isn't going to stay like that forever. Guys with his frame can put on weights easily and he might hit 250 or 260 in no time. NBA players struggle to LOSE weight, gaining weight is not a problem for most of them.

Once again I'm not sure you're trolling or not so good job.

BadMofoPimp · Post #113 » by **BadMofoPimp** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 2:59 pm

Zmill wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
drsd wrote:Was reading a statistical analysis of NBA players that had an ACL injury. The conclusion is that all come back with a dramatically improved mid-range game. I guess that comes from only having stationary shooting as a training drill.

My point: the blown ACL might actually improve Noel's game.

..

First of all, Noel has zero mid-range game and he will have to bang against guys weighing 50lbs more on average. Dude is done. If he was smart, he would take that $10 mil insurance policy that he can get if it is considered career ending. Because, once you take that NBA contract with all those hands in it, he may not end up with much after his rookie contract is over.

Bold = Every part I facepalmed at. I guess since almost the whole post was facepalm-worthy it was like one single long facepalm. You're one helluva poster BMP, IDK why I try and take you serious at times when you blatantly troll.

Interesting point about DRSD's post: Noel actually has a nice dribble-drive game that he wasn't able to showcase at UK due to the horrible floor-spacing. I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to improve his offense a little bit by incorporating the dribble drive more while also scoring on P&R's, Alley-Oops, and Clean-ups.

Thanks for not taking me personally. I am against taking Noel, but if Henny rolls the dice, then I accept our fate regardless if Noel succeeds or fails if in a Magic Uni. But, I do exaggerate while it is much fun doing so. I am always going for the jugular. But, for some reason, I have convinced myself that Noel will fail in the NBA possibly worse than Oden, in my own mind. After the Dwight and Hill situations and all this franchise has gone thru, I doubt Henny just rolls the dice on Noel like that. Too much risk for this franchise.

Last Guardian · Post #114 » by **Last Guardian** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 3:09 pm

The injury is really the only concern. Otherwise Noel is absolutely perfect for this team. Physically he is a PF, and his game is a perfect compliment to Vucci. And he gives us everything this team needs.

Post #115 » by **Def Swami** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 3:24 pm

Neon1 wrote:
Bensational wrote: unfortunately, this draft is weak in talented scorers. it's actually just a really **** draft. but i would personally rather take a chance on someone like Smart/McCollum/Burke, and the chance that they can become elite scorers/playmakers. we can get by without a DPOTY player, but we NEED an elite scorer if we ever want to turn the corner.

You REALLY think Smart/McCollum/Burke, have a BETTER chance of becoming elite offensive players more than Noel has at becoming elite DEFENSIVELY?,

That's where I'm on the fence about Noel. I don't hate Noel, but I'm not sold that he's the best player available. I want to see the other guys at the Draft Combine next to each other, and even then, I'm still glad I don't have to make the decision this year. One of my main concerns with Noel is that in the few games he played against a real post presence (Alex Len, Patric Young), he got pushed around quite a bit. He could possibly be an an elite shot blocker, but I'm not ready to commit to him as an elite defender against next level talent, just as I'm not ready to commit to Smart/Burke/McCollum as elite offensive players.

drsd · Post #116 » by **drsd** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 3:31 pm

MoMM wrote:... and then trade up the other lower 2 picks for another top5 pick.

I would consider it very unlikely that any team would trade down next year. There simply appears to be to much talent and depth. That you want Orlando to trade up highlights that point.

..

Neon1 · Post #117 » by **Neon1** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 3:39 pm

VGOSWAMI wrote: One of my main concerns with Noel is that in the few games he played against a real post presence (Alex Len, Patric Young), he got pushed around quite a bit. He could possibly be an an elite shot blocker, but I'm not ready to commit to him as an elite defender against next level talent, just as I'm not ready to commit to Smart/Burke/McCollum as elite offensive players.

At his age (18) his team defense is elite for a big man from what everyone has seen. Defensive rotations and help defense etc is not a hard thing to see/scout or translate to the next level. I think you guys questioning his defensive impact are only focusing on BPG, which yes, they are impressive, but that isn't all scouts etc are talking about when talking about his defensive impact on the team.

Yes he can get pushed around getting backed down if he gets isolated in the post against an extremely big and/or strong bigs (as you pointed out), but like has been pointed out many times, if the Magic were to draft him, he is coming here as a PF/C at least initially until he gets bigger to the point he slows down and becomes a C only player. The guy is 18, his body is nowhere near as strong as it will be when it has matured even just 1 year form now, let alone after a few years (age 21,22,23,etc) even if he never gets on the weights hardcore, natural age and progression is going to pack pounds on whether he tries or not.

Neon1 · Post #118 » by **Neon1** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 3:47 pm

KingRobb02 wrote:Exactly. The second pick next year will probably be in the 20s and will have a 1 in 5 chance of being a contributor. If someone is willing to trade that pick and our top 5 pick this year for another lottery pick in 2014, I don't even blink before I say yes.

That would be completely irresponsible to trade a #1,#2 or #3 pick AND a mid-late (most likely) 2014 1st round pick for a pick that doesnt even exist yet.

How in the world would you know what pick you are giving all of that up for? That is crazy bro. You have NO IDEA what will happen with any team next season. What happens if your top-3 pick plus 2013 free agency doesnt put said team in the playoffs for god sakes? Injuries could happen, ANYTHING could happen next year.

If you trade this pick, you trade it for a SURE THING, aka A known star player etc. You dont gamble away something like that for something with ZERO idea of what is coming back. I cant believe how many people think that is a wise idea.

BadMofoPimp · Post #119 » by **BadMofoPimp** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 4:16 pm

Noel = Epic Fail

G-Heel · Post #120 » by **G-Heel** » Mon Apr 8, 2013 4:21 pm

Neon1 wrote:
KingRobb02 wrote:Exactly. The second pick next year will probably be in the 20s and will have a 1 in 5 chance of being a contributor. If someone is willing to trade that pick and our top 5 pick this year for another lottery pick in 2014, I don't even blink before I say yes.

That would be completely irresponsible to trade a #1,#2 or #3 pick AND a mid-late (most likely) 2014 1st round pick for a pick that doesnt even exist yet.

How in the world would you know what pick you are giving all of that up for? That is crazy bro. You have NO IDEA what will happen with any team next season. What happens if your top-3 pick plus 2013 free agency doesnt put said team in the playoffs for god sakes? Injuries could happen, ANYTHING could happen next year.

If you trade this pick, you trade it for a SURE THING, aka A known star player etc. You dont gamble away something like that for something with ZERO idea of what is coming back. I cant believe how many people think that is a wise idea.

Agree one hundred percent. I was going to write something similar but you beat me to it. Let's say we trade our pick to the bobcats for next season pick. Now they have 2 top 5 picks and plenty of cap room to sign solid players this summer. Yea, they are going to make the playoffs and leave us in the dry. Too much risk!!!! Very low chance it'll pay off.