Trade Vucevic poll

[SOUL]

Our problem is that there is still a disconnect between Ownership, Front Office and Coaching Staff. We have no direction because we do not have a shared vision.

Same with the board.

[Popsicle1228]

Our problem is that there is still a disconnect between Ownership, Front Office and Coaching Staff. We have no direction because we do not have a shared vision.

Same with the board.

No kidding. LOL

The poll in this thread is a clear demonstration of a lack of a shared vision. I think the argument being presented by both sides have merit, I am in the do not trade Vuc camp, but it does not mean that is the right decision. This situation is definitely not black and white. If only I had a crystal ball or perhaps more importantly the Magic FO had a crystal ball.

[basketballRob]

I think the disconnect is that the FO, coaching staff, and media try to push Vucevic as some kind of star.

He is having a great year, but I'm not sure anyone buys a ticket so they can watch him play.

You can tell that even Josh Robbins is very pro-Vuc and anti-Bamba.

I really think some of the media and FO would be shocked that part Magic fans would like to see Vucevic traded.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Not happening

Read on Twitter

[VFX]

Not happening

Read on Twitter

I’d bet Orlando did this to take Vuc off the trade block.

[IllMagic04]

I didn't think we were trading him anyway. Def not trading him now. I would personally would still do it.

[bargnanimvp]

Not happening

Read on Twitter

I’d bet Orlando did this to take Vuc off the trade block.

"Mo come here for a minute"
"Why are you holding a hammer coach"
"No reason just come over here and put your leg up on this table....."

[VFX]

Not happening

Read on Twitter

I’d bet Orlando did this to take Vuc off the trade block.

"Mo come here for a minute"
"Why are you holding a hammer coach"
"No reason just come over here and put your leg up on this table....."

interesting timing nonetheless.

[Skin]

Not happening

Read on Twitter

Expected. It's tradition for our prized rookie to miss significant time. Go Tragic!

[Def Swami]

Interested to see what Marc Gasol gets traded for. Will be interesting to see what Vucevic could have fetched on the market.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[Xatticus]

Spoiler:

Those are statistics. His metrics have been declining.

Vucevic's eFG% at the end of each month:
Oct: .608
Nov: .590
Dec: .565
Jan: .555

His eFG% up to Dec. 1: .590
His eFG% since Dec. 1: .530

Vucevic's TS% at the end of each month:
Oct: .639
Nov: .620
Dec: .590
Jan: .572

His TS% up to Dec. 1: .620
His TS% since Dec. 1: .537
Vucevic's career TS%: .533
League average TS%: .558
Orlando Magic TS%: .540
Fournier's TS% since Dec. 1: .547

He hasn't been particularly efficient since the first couple months of the season, but his season statistics are still buoyed by those first couple months. There is no doubt that his efficiency metrics are regressing towards the mean. The important question regards what that mean is. If the new mean is the same as the old mean, an extension would quickly become a huge problem.

You’re being a little disingenuous with the numbers.

1. You said Vucevic’s metrics have steadily declined. This isn’t accurate.

Of course they have been declining. This is irrefutable. I think you are just trying to argue, but I will explain just the same.

The value in statistics lies in their ability to predict what will happen. We never actually know the true mean unless our sample contains all possible data points, but we make do with what we have. To that end, the larger sample is almost invariably a better predictor. When a sample isn't representative of the true mean, you expect regression (up or down).

Vucevic's mean scoring efficiency metrics (eFG% and TS%) have both been in decline since early in the season. In fact, both declined over the duration of his "very good January." This is almost certainly due to regression back towards the true mean and it is highly probable that both will continue to decline over the remainder of the season.

The fact that Vucevic's efficiency metrics were better in January than they were in December doesn't invalidate this. It's highly unlikely that any subset is going to accurately reflect the true mean. Variance (above or below) is expected. You could've cited any particular performance over the course of the season to attempt to refute my statement, but I'd imagine that data from a single game was too obviously cherry picking?

2. You said Vucevic’s metrics have declined because he’s taking more midrange jumpers. This isn’t accurate

I didn't say that. I said I suspect it. I have a solid grasp of the English language and I generally choose my words carefully. Without the data on hand, I could only hypothesize as to why his shot selection had deteriorated. And... yes. His shot selection has deteriorated. I know this because this is precisely what those metrics measure. They don't measure how good someone is at shooting, though that is obviously a factor, but rather they measure the quality of the field goal attempts a player is taking respective to their ability to hit those shots. Distance is only one factor.

3. You said Vucevic hasn’t been particularly efficient since the first two months. This isn’t accurate.

It's an adverb. Look it up. This specific adverb has caused a fair bit of misunderstanding over the last few weeks and I am unsure as to why.

I don't know how you can argue that Vucevic has been particularly efficient over the last two months when his TS% over that span has been below the league average. He was particularly efficient from the beginning of the season through November.

Spoiler:

Vucevic EFG% by month
Oct: .608
Nov: .585
Dec: .518
Jan: .538

Vucevic TS% by month
Oct: .639
Nov: .613
Dec: .535
Jan: .554

Vucevic Career Marks
EFG%: .513
TS%: .533

So as you can see, Vucevic had 1.5 great months in Oct and Nov, then had a “bad” month in December and then bounced back with a very good January.

October is only a 7 game month, so we can’t consider that a full month since most teams play 15-16 games in a normal month. I also put “bad” in quotes for December because it was actually right in line with his career numbers.

It’s unfair to say Vucevic’s numbers have steadily declined considering January was better than December and what he did in January was more efficient than his career numbers. Beyond that, I think it’s worth noting that he did suffer that sprained ankle in December, missed a game and then had three pretty poor games in a row coming off the injury.

Let’s look at Vuc’s shooting zones by month.

October
13.3 FGA per game
38.3% of shots at the rim: 5.1 per game at .750%
22.6% of shots in the paint: 3.0 per game at .429%
27.0% of shots from midrange: 3.6 per game at .400%
12.0% of shots from 3PT: 1.6 per game at .636%
2.9 FT per game at .850%

November
16.5 FGA per game
29.1% of shots at the rim: 4.8 per game at .750%
30.0% of shots in the paint: 4.9 per game at .468%
20.1% of shots from midrange: 3.4 per game at .564%
20.1% of shots from 3PT: 3.4 per game at .364%
3.1 FT per game at .840%

December
16.4 FGA per game
29.9% of shots at the rim: 4.9 per game at .610%
29.9% of shots in the paint: 4.9 per game at .492%
20.1% of shots from midrange: 3.3 per game at .450%
20.1% of shots from 3PT: 3.3 per game at .325%
2.7 FT per game at .688%

January
18.4 FGA per game
31.5% of shots at the rim: 5.8 per game at .685%
31.0% of shots in the paint: 5.7 per game at .462%
20.1% of shots from midrange: 3.8 per game at .400%
16.8% of shots from 3PT: 3.1 per game at .380%
2.5 FT per game at .725%

Career
At Rim: .656%
In Paint: .471%
Midrange: .433%

3PT: .332%

FT: .735%

So as you can see Vuc’s number of midrange attempts were actually the lowest they’ve been all season in December which was his least efficient month of the season.

So what caused the big drop in efficiency in December?

Right off the bat it’s very noticeable that Vucevic only shot 61% at the rim in December. This is lower than his career mark of .656% and significantly lower than the low 70%s marks he’s put up the last two years. This was pretty obviously an unsustainable negative blip that could be attributed to small sample size noise and possibly also to the ankle injury. Vucevic immediately jumped back up to a much better 69% at the rim in January.

Another area where Vucevic noticeably dipped that has nothing to do with his shot selection is his FT%.

After shooting 85% in October and 84% in November, he slumped down to just 69% in December and 72% in January. That 16% drop in FT% from Oct/Nov to Dec led to a nearly 3% drop in his TS%. Again, this has literally nothing to do with shot selection. He simply bricked more free throws than he did earlier in the year and more than he normally has the previous three seasons.

He actually shot even more shots at the rim and in the paint in January than he did in those first 1.5 hot months, the issue primarily is that he’s missing a lot more FTs and he isn’t finishing quite as well as he’s shown to be capable of the last two years.

His overall percentage of midrange shots has been completely static for 3 months. The perception is that he’s taking more because he took fewer threes in January, but the amount of midrange was the exact same as his hot months.

I am all for debating any number of Magic-related topics, but I find it tiresome having to continually clarify statements that are not ambiguous. I think there is an assumption of prejudice around here any time anything unflattering is said about individual players.

[Xatticus]

Not happening

Read on Twitter

I’d bet Orlando did this to take Vuc off the trade block.

It's from muscle fatigue. I've gotten a stress fracture in a lower leg from too much running. When the muscles tire, the bones absorb more stress than they should.

It lends credence to the argument that Bamba isn't ready for a larger role than he has been given.

[VFX]

Not happening

Read on Twitter

I’d bet Orlando did this to take Vuc off the trade block.

It's from muscle fatigue. I've gotten a stress fracture in a lower leg from too much running. When the muscles tire, the bones absorb more stress than they should.

It lends credence to the argument that Bamba isn't ready for a larger role than he has been given.

I can buy that. I’m just being a conspiracy theorist and giving the FO too much credit for having a plan.

[DiplomaticMagic]

I would still trade Vuc even with the Bamba injury. Maybe we can actually see Mozgov suit up : lol:

But Birch is damn good and I actually like Jefferson in Lakeland. We can roll with that for half a season that is already lost.

[basketballRob]

I would still trade Vuc even with the Bamba injury. Maybe we can actually see Mozgov suit up : lol:

But Birch is damn good and I actually like Jefferson in Lakeland. We can roll with that for half a season that is already lost.

Me too. Look at the Clippers, they turned Griffin into 5 picks, Shamet, and Bradley.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[MagicStarwipe]

Clippers just traded their all-star (should have been) like it ain't no thang.

[tiderulz]

Clippers just traded their all-star (should have been) like it ain't no thang.

rebuild. expiring player got them two 1sts and Shamet who was a 1st rounder last year, and two 2nds. If they werent keeping Harris that is a great haul

[pepe1991]

Clippers just traded their all-star (should have been) like it ain't no thang.

When your team is on short list of Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler and Anthony Davis for future destination you do it.

Not all teams are equal.

[Nemesis21]

Clippers just traded their all-star (should have been) like it ain't no thang.

rebuild. expiring player got them two 1sts and Shamet who was a 1st rounder last year, and two 2nds. If they werent keeping Harris that is a great haul

So what the F can we get for Vucevic?

[OrlChamps2030]

Clippers just traded their all-star (should have been) like it ain't no thang.

rebuild. expiring player got them two 1sts and Shamet who was a 1st rounder last year, and two 2nds. If they werent keeping Harris that is a great haul

So what the F can we get for Vucevic?

Nowhere close to that