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No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac

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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#101 » by MartinsIzAfraud » Mon Jan 6, 2025 7:42 pm

three3d wrote:
Bergmaniac wrote:The swing in Isaac's impact numbers from last year to this one is just wild. He led the team in on/off rating last year with 12.7 and now he is dead last with -11.7. This pretty much never happens without a major injury or a complete overhaul of the roster and the role of the player in question.



I’m completely baffled by his minutes restriction, I don’t think we can call it anything other than that. You’d think if it as weight related the simple solution would be to play him and change his diet so he could lose weight. Shooting is muscle memory more than anything really, JI didn’t “Hulk” up so the amount of bricks and air balls he’s shooting is unexplainable.

his body can't handle more minutes and that's obvious. The FO knows it, Mose knows it & the Dr's know it.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#102 » by Kent » Mon Jan 6, 2025 7:54 pm

I'd rather have a minutes-restricted JI than none at all.

I agree he was better when he was lighter.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#103 » by yoyojw17 » Mon Jan 6, 2025 8:20 pm

Kent wrote:I'd rather have a minutes-restricted JI than none at all.

I agree he was better when he was lighter.

And Changes can still occur in my opinion. Weight gain can be lost.... assuming that is the culprit. But yup.... he is able to affect the court and team play dramatically. And with the failsafes built in.... he is still manageable as a player or trade item. We'll see if they figure it all out. I would like for him to focus on being more than a 3 point shooter... he's fallen in love with that 3 point line too much. Defense #1..... active big #2.... if open open.... shoot the 3 #3. lol
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#104 » by pepe1991 » Mon Jan 6, 2025 8:39 pm

MartinsIzAfraud wrote:
three3d wrote:
Bergmaniac wrote:The swing in Isaac's impact numbers from last year to this one is just wild. He led the team in on/off rating last year with 12.7 and now he is dead last with -11.7. This pretty much never happens without a major injury or a complete overhaul of the roster and the role of the player in question.



I’m completely baffled by his minutes restriction, I don’t think we can call it anything other than that. You’d think if it as weight related the simple solution would be to play him and change his diet so he could lose weight. Shooting is muscle memory more than anything really, JI didn’t “Hulk” up so the amount of bricks and air balls he’s shooting is unexplainable.

his body can't handle more minutes and that's obvious. The FO knows it, Mose knows it & the Dr's know it.


If you know somebody can't play more than 13-15 mpg for 60% of nba games, you simply don't resign him.

This is Biyombo level stupidity to bring somebody so limited , into so limited role and pay him so much.
So i will use same argument i had against Biyombo. It's simply stupidity to pay big money for defensive minded big. They simply don't play enough min to be worth money. But let's get bit deeper.


Guy plays 13 min a game, so he is part of 25-ish possessiosn a game.
So he plays on some 12-14 defensive possessions, even best defender in history would not actually impact more than 4, but let's be very generous and say he impacts 5. ( he doesn't), good teams know how to avoid elite defenders.

In same time, he brings -26 points (negative) by shooting his 5 shots a game , according to BB reference.

Unlike some Gobert, he brings no offensive rebounds nor extra possessions. Unlike some Draymoond Green, he has negative assist to TO rate.

But biggest problem is fact that he is neither suited to play PF nor C.

He does not know how to defend at C nor he is actually all that great defender vs bigs. On offense he has zero C - needed skills.

At PF he shoots 20% from mid range and 24% for 3.

In past 10 games, he menaged to put ball through hoop 13 times total.


So what's the point of paying defensive specialist, backup C big money? To impact 3 possessions a game at average? :crazy:

This isn't just theory, You have Onyeka Okongwu, also lottery pick, in eyes of fans, media and advanced stats he is "elite backup C" because of his defense. Yet, Hawks are 4-3 without him this year, 14-15 with him.
Hawks were 13-14 without him,23-32 with him last year.
And unlike Isaac, he plays serious min, but again, due how specific and limited his role is there will never be enough possessions for him to impact, to make his impact actuallly- impactful.

Advanced stats screwed up nba in some sense. People look at backups with crazy impact numbers and think those numbers would hold vs starters or are sustainable in different settings.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#105 » by Bensational » Mon Jan 6, 2025 8:49 pm

Isaac will be on $15m a season and cost 7% of the salary cap. If you can get 16 minutes of DPOTY caliber play in the games that matter, you take that deal every day even if it means only 60% of regular season games.

Isaac is the least of our worries. He costs little after this season, we know he has limitations but we also know how impactful he can be.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#106 » by Bergmaniac » Mon Jan 6, 2025 10:46 pm

Isaac last year was well worth his salary, our record was significantly better in the games he played and we were usually dominating in the minutes he played (which often included clutch minutes in close games). So many games turned around last year when he came up on the court in the second quarter after the starters had gone significantly behind. Obviously this year the situation is really different, If he can get back to this level next year and beyond and stay reasonable healthy his contract would be a bargain. That's a big if, of course.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#107 » by Hogified05 » Tue Jan 7, 2025 5:23 am

I am just perplexed by whoever decision it was to put on that much weight for JI. Whether it was him or the team I don't get you. Took away what made him special defensively at that size his lateral quickness. He just looks slower and isn't nearly effecting as many shots as he normally would. Last year he was legit one of the greatest defenders I'd ever seen...not a clue why they would change anything.

Having said that he looked great tonight...hopefully he is getting his spring back.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#108 » by Bergmaniac » Sat Jan 11, 2025 5:02 pm

I took a closer look at his shooting numbers this season to see how bad they are and it's even worse than I thought. He is shooting 25% on jump shots this season. He is shooting below 20% on shots from the 10-23 feet area. He is shooting 14.3% on above the break 3s and 17.6% on threes from the left corner. The only place on the court he is shooting decently when he shoots jomp shots is right corner 3s (38.9%). A jump shot by him from any other spot is almost a turnover. Obvioulsy he has never been a good shooter by NBA standard but he was never as bad as this after his rookie year and last year he was pretty decent shooting 3s.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#109 » by eyriq » Sat Jan 11, 2025 5:09 pm

Bergmaniac wrote:I took a closer look at his shooting numbers this season to see how bad they are and it's even worse than I thought. He is shooting 25% on jump shots this season. He is shooting below 20% on shots from the 10-23 feet area. He is shooting 14.3% on above the break 3s and 17.6% on threes from the left corner. The only place on the court he is shooting decently when he shoots jomp shots is right corner 3s (38.9%). A jump shot by him from any other spot is almost a turnover. Obvioulsy he has never been a good shooter by NBA standard but he was never as bad as this after his rookie year and last year he was pretty decent shooting 3s.
Yikes, his shooting is so bad that I think he should turn off the offensive valve completely and transition fully into being a center on offense.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#110 » by Def Swami » Sat Jan 11, 2025 7:16 pm

He's definitely regressed this season. His contract is very tradeable. I could see him as a trade piece down the road.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#111 » by Orlando Dawg » Wed Jan 22, 2025 6:03 am

During the Toronto game there was a Scientology commercial which could be a signal that Devos & Co are willing to part ways
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#112 » by GelbeWand09 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 7:21 am

As someone who always defended JI it's amazing how the training stuff and him were able to pull off in one off-season what all those injuries couldnt do in 2-3 years, making him look like a shell of his former self. All that without a injury, amazing work. Just because he looked not good in 1 playoff match up were even before was clear that this was his worst possible match up + many times it wasn't even his fault that the Cavs Bigs had a easy dunk/layup but Paolo rotating late. Complete Moronic stuff.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#113 » by KillMonger » Wed Jan 22, 2025 12:45 pm

Halfway through the season and he still can't play more than 20 minutes sickness non withstanding

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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#114 » by Bergmaniac » Wed Jan 22, 2025 1:53 pm

KillMonger wrote:Halfway through the season and he still can't play more than 20 minutes sickness non withstanding

He's played over 20 minutes 8 times already. I don't think a minute restriction is the reason he is not playing more, at least most of the time, he just hasn't been good this year in most games.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#115 » by Fortune Teller » Wed Jan 22, 2025 2:30 pm

I'm not so sure the best way to characterize this season for JI is a regression. He's barely played over the course of his 8 years here so it's impossible to really expect anything specific from him. So while it may technically be a statistical regression from last season it's certainly not a surprising one.

Last summer most people on this board were saying it was a no-brainer to re-sign him because even in limited minutes his production was worth his salary. The flaw in that logic, as I pointed out then, is that there was zero evidence to suggest he would even be able to repeat last season's performance, as mid as it was.

Last season was an anomaly health-wise because he actually made it through the whole season, but he looked spent in the playoffs and was completely ineffective against the Cavs when it mattered most. His numbers were better last season and he looked more mobile but he was playing a paltry 15.8 mpg and still missed 24 games. If you take off your Orlando Magic glasses what he's doing this year isn't surprising at all and that's why no team in the NBA would still be paying this guy what the Magic are in his 8th year of sporadic, inconsistent production and health.

Cue the "but they had to spend the $26 million somewhere so we might as well keep re-signing these same broken players" posts.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#116 » by JoshuaPotter » Wed Jan 22, 2025 3:03 pm

Fortune Teller wrote:I'm not so sure the best way to characterize this season for JI is a regression. He's barely played over the course of his 8 years here so it's impossible to really expect anything specific from him. So while it may technically be a statistical regression from last season it's certainly not a surprising one.

Last summer most people on this board were saying it was a no-brainer to re-sign him because even in limited minutes his production was worth his salary. The flaw in that logic, as I pointed out then, is that there was zero evidence to suggest he would even be able to repeat last season's performance, as mid as it was.

Last season was an anomaly health-wise because he actually made it through the whole season, but he looked spent in the playoffs and was completely ineffective against the Cavs when it mattered most. His numbers were better last season and he looked more mobile but he was playing a paltry 15.8 mpg and still missed 24 games. If you take off your Orlando Magic glasses what he's doing this year isn't surprising at all and that's why no team in the NBA would still be paying this guy what the Magic are in his 8th year of sporadic, inconsistent production and health.

Cue the "but they had to spend the $26 million somewhere so we might as well keep re-signing these same broken players" posts.


Solid write up. Not sure I agree with all of it, but very solid write up.

I think another factored part is Joe Ingles is the main dude he played with correct? To me, that counts for something. AB showed glimpses that on a healthy roster he could perform in a similar capacity but I feel all the chemistry in lineups has gone down the drain.

In other words, everyone is "uncomfortable" so there is no good shot per se.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#117 » by fendilim » Wed Jan 22, 2025 3:56 pm

JI was a good complement for Moe. Now there is no one to cover JI’s lack of offense. And JI’s isn’t able to be a weakside defender too.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#118 » by basketballRob » Wed Jan 22, 2025 4:27 pm

fendilim wrote:JI was a good complement for Moe. Now there is no one to cover JI’s lack of offense. And JI’s isn’t able to be a weakside defender too.
I liked the Wendell and JI tandem coming off the bench

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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#119 » by Idiosyncratic » Wed Jan 22, 2025 4:40 pm

Fortune Teller wrote:I'm not so sure the best way to characterize this season for JI is a regression. He's barely played over the course of his 8 years here so it's impossible to really expect anything specific from him. So while it may technically be a statistical regression from last season it's certainly not a surprising one.

Last summer most people on this board were saying it was a no-brainer to re-sign him because even in limited minutes his production was worth his salary. The flaw in that logic, as I pointed out then, is that there was zero evidence to suggest he would even be able to repeat last season's performance, as mid as it was.

Last season was an anomaly health-wise because he actually made it through the whole season, but he looked spent in the playoffs and was completely ineffective against the Cavs when it mattered most. His numbers were better last season and he looked more mobile but he was playing a paltry 15.8 mpg and still missed 24 games. If you take off your Orlando Magic glasses what he's doing this year isn't surprising at all and that's why no team in the NBA would still be paying this guy what the Magic are in his 8th year of sporadic, inconsistent production and health.

Cue the "but they had to spend the $26 million somewhere so we might as well keep re-signing these same broken players" posts.


I mean Isaac was one of the best defenders in the league last year and also shot it very well, wasn't mid performance. Aren't they able to get out of that contract next year if they want to? Could have sworn I read they can pay him 8 million and cut him the final 3 years. Is that only in the case of injury?

I don't see many people happy with the Isaac or Wendell signings at this point though so not sure where you are seeing those posts.
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Re: No elephant in the room, What do we do about J.Isaac 

Post#120 » by Bergmaniac » Wed Jan 22, 2025 4:44 pm

basketballRob wrote:
fendilim wrote:JI was a good complement for Moe. Now there is no one to cover JI’s lack of offense. And JI’s isn’t able to be a weakside defender too.
I liked the Wendell and JI tandem coming off the bench

I've hated it, the offense has been dreadful in these minutes, awful spacing and brick after brick from 3 by both, and the defense hasn't been good enough to make up for it.

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