#25: Welcome to Orlando, Jase Richardson!

[Skybox]

Wingspan is so much more important than height on both ends and his wingspan and athleticism gets him to at least average size

He's bigger than Allen Iverson and he's a freshman...I like him if he doesn't grow, but he could

MSU breeds dawgs...he was a plus defender - if he just holds his own on that end...

His season-long stats are depressed as his role evolved and Izzo gave him more responsibility, but his efficiency was excellent and scaled up

Geez...it was pick #25...it's as good a bet as you'll find (I would have been fine with him at #16 - at #25 )

[jonbob17]

Here's a write up on Jase: https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/the-case-for-jase-richardson

This was predraft and part of the writer's conclusion:
The question then becomes where you feel comfortable drafting this type of player. It’s going to be team-dependent. From a front office perspective, I’d feel most comfortable with Jase in an environment like Orlando’s, where he would have a good amount of defensive insulation and an offense that already runs through bigger players. That would give him an easier path to getting on an NBA floor and positively contributing earlier in his career. In this class, the latter part of the first round feels right. You’re already dealing with a higher level of risk once you get into that range, and there are multiple situations where it’s easy to envision Richardson both finding a place to contribute and having his developmental needs met.

[Optimus_Steel]

Didn’t mean it as similar game styles.

I meant it as he won’t be able to stay on the floor.

Cole for all of his warts, and there were plenty, would have consistently been able to stick on the floor if he had been a 41% 3PT shooter.

Cole's problem wasn't just that he was a target defensively, it was that he was a target defensively *and* he couldn't really mitigate it by being an efficient offensive player.

The problem with Cole was his not so great shooting percentages, inconsistency, not a good passer at all (how often his passes were off the mark), and of course getting abused on defense and fouling too much. If he had better shooting percentages/consistency he would be playable despite the defensive issues because his skillset was needed.

[Skybox]

Here's a write up on Jase: https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/the-case-for-jase-richardson

This was predraft and part of the writer's conclusion:
The question then becomes where you feel comfortable drafting this type of player. It’s going to be team-dependent. From a front office perspective, I’d feel most comfortable with Jase in an environment like Orlando’s, where he would have a good amount of defensive insulation and an offense that already runs through bigger players. That would give him an easier path to getting on an NBA floor and positively contributing earlier in his career. In this class, the latter part of the first round feels right. You’re already dealing with a higher level of risk once you get into that range, and there are multiple situations where it’s easy to envision Richardson both finding a place to contribute and having his developmental needs met.

Good one...I'm not blind to the risk, but most of us were more than willing to give up a GOOD frp (or more) for Sexton, who looks like a very similar model.

the differences are:
-Sexton has PROVEN he can do it on the NBA level...he was a non-factor for years as a ball-pounding, empty stats, failed pick for CLE
-Sexton gets paid $19m and then he expires and becomes a hungry UFA
-Sexton has evolved into a more sensible efficient player in UTA...Jase already shows tremendous efficiency, particularly at the rim, but also from 3
-Jase has done NOTHING at the NBA level, but growing up in an NBA family does suggest some familiarity with the vibe of the league (Like Jett? )

I mean it really does look like a better, more efficient Cole...which is just what the doctor ordered for us, at a late frp salary slot.

[drsd]

What's Rchardson's upside: Isaiah Thomas?

We need some level of reality here. A low-minutes spark plug is all we Magic fans should EVER expect from the rookie. This year his job is to backup Stuff as bench cheerleader.

And ....

Thought it was a no brainer with who was left on the board and personally I love the pick. A good defender who shoots at a ridiculous clip and plays well off the ball?

.... I say this believing the Magic made the clearly correct pick. Richardson will be a rotational player in time. And probably has more upside than da Silva, for example.

[Knightro]

What's Rchardson's upside: Isaiah Thomas?

We need some level of reality here. A low-minutes spark plug is all we Magic fans should EVER expect from the rookie. This year his job is to backup Stuff as bench cheerleader.

Yeah I mean his A+++ outcome is pre-injuries Isaiah Thomas or modern day Jalen Brunson.

Isaiah Thomas' 2017 season is one of the most random awesome seasons of all time btw.

The dude averaged 29 PPG on a .625 TS% at 5'9". And he averaged just 2.8 turnovers per game despite a huge 34 USG%.

[Idiosyncratic]

I agree with the height and quickness concerns, but there is a reason he was available at 25, everyone is flawed at that point, I mean everyone is flawed at any point, draft picks bust a lot. There is definitely a world where his flaws keep him from getting to his spots in the NBA, no doubt about it.

He needs to improve his handle, especially his right hand, but he does have a bag of advanced moves to help create shots for himself and finish at the rim. Just have to hope his feel and shooting accuracy can help him overcome his warts.

This team clearly plans to stick with Paolo, Franz, Suggs and Bane handling the ball a lot, so in that sense we were one of the teams best equipped to keep him off ball if that is where he ends up. A 6 foot off ball guy is definitely a questionable fit for many teams, but you can kind of see how it is easier to imagine that player on our team given our defense and wing ball-handlers and need for efficient shooting. Also his wingspan is 6'6, vert is 38 inches, so he's not quite as small overall as his height says.

[tooler]

So in conclusion, the draft pick is a crapshoot.

We knew that already!

[eyriq]

Some AI-driven research (deep research is cool!) I ran showed that only 4% of draft picks are under 6'2", but those who do get drafted have a 52% stick rate, which is higher than the overall average. In other words, once a small guard clears the initial selection bias, their odds of lasting in the league are actually better than the typical draftee.

[YosemiteSam]

Something that I haven't seen brought up much as a "pro" is that he is a lefty. I feel like if a player has good skill level overall but is also a lefty, that is a hard-to-quantify advantage that tends to create the small space needed to thrive. I've long watched players like Harden and Brunson seem to get to spots and get off shots that others can't. I think that is because players grow up building muscle memory playing 99% against righties, so they just make the wrong tiny adjustments against southpaws. I'm excited for us to have a skilled lefty to see what happens.

[basketballRob]

Didn’t mean it as similar game styles.

I meant it as he won’t be able to stay on the floor.

Cole for all of his warts, and there were plenty, would have consistently been able to stick on the floor if he had been a 41% 3PT shooter.

Cole's problem wasn't just that he was a target defensively, it was that he was a target defensively *and* he couldn't really mitigate it by being an efficient offensive player.

He was a plus defender as a Freshman on a TOM IZZO coached team. A. from what i've heard, it's already hard enough for freshmen to start on the spartans and defense is always a requirement. Yet... here we are with this freshman starting at seasons end and helping drive the spartans in the tournament.

There is always a chance for things NOT to translate.... but as of now the guy did it at such a rate that we can't take his abilities for granted.

People were just saying how they wanted Jose Alvarado ....

Several players are listed at 6'0", proving that size is not the only determinant of success in the NBA:
Jose Alvarado (New Orleans Pelicans)
Mike Conley (Minnesota Timberwolves)
Aaron Holiday (Houston Rockets)
Kyle Lowry (Philadelphia 76ers)
Jordan McLaughlin (Minnesota Timberwolves)
Davion Mitchell (Miami Heat)
Chris Paul (San Antonio Spurs)
Fred VanVleet (Houston Rockets)
KJ Simpson (Charlotte Hornets)
Isaiah Stevens (Miami Heat)

Then you have at 6' 1"
Darius Garland
Dennis Schroder
Miles McBride
Payton Pritchard
Scotty Pippen Jr.
TJ McConnell

.....Yeah.... Jase can do just fine in this league with IQ, Talent, and Tenacity.

Great pick and i'm happy to bring him on the train to success! Now.... when is the Summer league!

Reed Sheeppard was great in college and shot better than Jase but his standing reach is only 7'9.5". That's 5" shorter than Jase.

[fateis007]

Here is our version of Isaiah Thomas, except he has long arms and weighs 20 lbs and is not as fast.

Honest I don't put much stock into size.

It's entirely about skill and if his skills translate.

We have 6'6 player in the league who can't guard anyone, and 6'3 guys who play their hearts out and are known for being good defenders.

You have players that turn into Cole Anthony, and then players that turn into Trae young instead. Look at Bane, by all accounts if you looked at his wingspan, he should be a traffic cone, but statically he is not and gets his shot off with ease.

It is all just about instincts and skill sets and feel for the game.

I think coming in with elite efficiency is a great risk as #25. and having a 40 inch vert and long wingspan clearly help his efficiency in his drive game.

[OrlChamps2030]

I don’t see the Cole comparison at all, outside of size. Completely different archetypes.

On the other hand, not sure I see the Brunson or Isiah Thomas comparisons either.. don’t really see the ball skills. He’s the 25th pick, it’d be awesome if he turns out to be a good bench player. Maybe we can draft Jokic in the second round tonight?

I could see him being something like a smaller but better shooting version of his brother Josh Richardson.. 3&D guard

[Def Swami]

I don’t hate the pick. Probably the best player on the board. I also don’t expect him to play much on this team this year. Could see him in Osceola a lot this year imo.

[YosemiteSam]

Thought this was interesting from the Athletic draft analysis for Jase:

College assistant coach No. 1 (his team played Michigan State): “I don’t think he’s quite ready. It’s one of those cases where he had too good of a year to go back. Strike while the iron’s hot. But he’s not ready for the NBA. He’s going to spend 95 percent of his time next season in the G League. He just doesn’t know how to play. And I love the kid. We recruited him. Know his dad. The mom’s awesome. They’re great people. He’s going to figure it out, but he’s not ready. I hope he doesn’t go to a franchise that’s impatient with him. The reason he’s leaving is he has to leave. It’s not because he’s ready to leave. He has to leave, unfortunately. Because they’re going to draft him. They’re going to draft Jase Richardson. … It’s going to take another year or two before he can help a team, even the bad ones. The best thing he does is make hard shots. He got better as a catch-and-shoot guy, but he shoots hard shots off the bounce. He’s not a great athlete. … Great kid, tremendous kid. I just think it’s too soon.”

College assistant coach No. 2 (his team played Michigan State): “He’s a great college player. He was their best player. He is small. He does not have the hops his dad did. I love their family. The dad is a wonderful guy, and so is the kid. He made big shots, and if you let him get left to his midrange, he’ll make the college 3.”

Western Conference executive No. 1: “All 30 teams? No. But he can shoot the basketball. I give him that. Before he measured what he measured at (in Chicago; 6-foot-1/2 inch), everyone saw him as a two-guard. They claim he played point guard a lot in high school. Because if he can mimic the one, like Jalen Brunson, he played point and he had some leadership skills. But he was more of a scoring guard than a point guard. I think it just depends where he ends up. He can shoot, and I like the pedigree. I wouldn’t be surprised either way.”

[Skybox]

He is 19 right?

Any chance we can get ( was it skybox) protein regimen to try to make him at least 3inches higher

Man, his father is rich and a former NBA player, don't you think he already took everything that was possible to get taller?

For the record, I’m a 57 yo fogey…that s**t wasn’t around…I just ate raw eggs and some milkshakes - which doesn’t make you taller

[dsg2021]

I woke up at 4am to read THIS?

He keeps accidentally referring to “Jeff” Weltman as “Jett”

For 29 other NBA fanbases that sort of typo wouldn’t be a problem. But alas…

lol at my typo, n ot the 1st time i m doing it, it might be a sign that i like booker lite

People meed to wake up, it's Jett Howard's breakout year

[VFX]

He keeps accidentally referring to “Jeff” Weltman as “Jett”

For 29 other NBA fanbases that sort of typo wouldn’t be a problem. But alas…

lol at my typo, n ot the 1st time i m doing it, it might be a sign that i like booker lite

People meed to wake up, it's Jett Howard's breakout year

Time to unleash Jeff

[dsg2021]

I don’t get this at all. Jase and Cole could not be more different. There is a mountain of difference between the two. Cole is an inefficient chucker and refused to play off the ball. Jase was one of the most efficient players in college basketball and excelled playing off the ball. Yea they are both small guards but that is where the similarities end.

Didn’t mean it as similar game styles.

I meant it as he won’t be able to stay on the floor.

TJ McConnell is 6’1” and he did pretty good job staying on the floor and his wingspan is not 6’6”. We don’t even need him to be a starter. Provide shooting and scoring off the bench while being a willing passer. It’s a no brainer on my end. We are the most equipped team in the league to bring in a player like him because of our size everywhere else

TJ McConnell and Payton Pritchard were the guys flashing through my mind a lot last night too. In terms of being a high impact bench player at 6'1-ish. I think people are in for a shock. Izzo's system has many NBA-ready parallels and a high NBA translation in their list of their players who went to the NBA and were able to stick in it. And you can't really point at anything in Jase's defense or offense for any reasons to say he's not ready to play in his rookie year. It's just height pointing and age pointing. Not even like a "well, 3P% is nice but not that special." No, it was like 42% any time, any where. And 46% 3P% in catch-and-shoot situations rated at the 95th percentile. Desmond Bane at 6'2 in shoes. Jase was built for a shock surprise of getting rotation minutes on day 1, or by the mid point of the season.

[eyriq]

I've talked myself even more into Jase. To the point that I refuse to accept that Weltman could whiff on Jett.