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Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow!

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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1021 » by drsd » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:16 pm

zaymon wrote:I dont think winning lottery is our only plan. That would be naive. We have a lot of young talent and now picks. If we want to win next year Harris, Isaac, Okeke, Carter, Fultz, Porter are not the worst players to have.


And-1

When Howard left, the Magic had no path for any quality on the roster. SO the team just drafted for a couple years to gain assets.

This year, Orlando has assets and probably two FRPs. The Magic is in a micro-rebuild phase. There is every reason to think a competent reconstruction should lead to a playoff visit in the 2022/23 season. With the big caveats of i) Fultz and Isaac returning to full health, and ii) none of the other players having a major injury.

,,
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1022 » by BCS » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:16 pm

pepe1991 wrote:One thing that gets under my nerves so much is " but this time we have new direction, we tank". For f*** sake we were tanking in 2018. Only season we were NOT tanking were 2019 and 2020. Taking in considirations 2020 season ended like 6 months ago,and we are already up to new tanking. In TEN YEARS Magic only did NOT tank THREE times.

What's so new about this direction? This is execlly what they were doing since Dwight threw Stan under a bus.
No we were not tanking all those years. The team stopped tanking the moment they hired Skiles, the moment they decided its time to win now and started making dumb moves, the ibaka trade, the Harris trade for more vets, the Biyombo signing smh, these moves kept us in mediocrity until right now, until this year. The team just sucked all those years and we tried to take a shortcut.

We weren't ready at that time to make those moves and they cemented us in no man's land.

I personally enjoyed the years we only won 20 and such way more than the past few years where we are the 7th or 8th seed and have no hope of winning a series.

But if you enjoy 8th seed and getting eliminated year after year....more power to you, I do not.

If you have a better way to improve the team that does not involve the draft I would love to hear it still.

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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1023 » by pepe1991 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:18 pm

tiderulz wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:One thing that gets under my nerves so much is " but this time we have new direction, we tank". For f*** sake we were tanking in 2018. Only season we were NOT tanking were 2019 and 2020. Taking in considirations 2020 season ended like 6 months ago,and we are already up to new tanking. In TEN YEARS Magic only did NOT tank THREE times.

What's so new about this direction? This is execlly what they were doing since Dwight threw Stan under a bus.

the front office went in on the tank this year full bore, unlike 2018. instead of signing any real vets, they have been rotating G-league, 2-way contract type of players. they didnt do it that much in 2018.


Rashard Vaughn, Purvis, Payne, Jamel Artis... Do you know Artis avaraged 18 mpg in 15 games he played ? :lol:

ffs we played Shelvin Mack for 20 min a game for 70 games. If that is not most obvious tanking i don't know what is.

In 37 blowout at end of a season vs Hornets our starting 5 was: Iwundu, Artis, Hezonja, Biyombo and Augustin . our bench was: Purvis, Birch, Mack and Mo Speights. If that is not even worst than current Magic 8 courpses squad i don't know what is.

over years people just become obsessed about that Dallas win, despite fact that even if we actually LOST, we would still not hold tiebraeker and lottery would probably still play the same. In mean time, as part of narrative driven agenda people have collective amnesia that Kings won 4 games MORE THAN US AND DRAFTED 2# , but nobody wants to talk about it because it doesn't fit their narrative.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1024 » by drsd » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:22 pm

zaymon wrote:I dont think we lack talent at every position. Harris and Isaac are solid starters if healthy. Fultz, Okeke and Carter are slightly below average starters but young and developing. Anthony is growing on me lately. Porter is really good (again, if healthy). Thats more than most of the bottom teams in the east that dont care about defensive personel at all and it bites them in the ass.
We will be propably bad next next, but if Weltman spends some assets we can be at least average in the east (not that i think thats the right time). Next is is most likely lost but 2022/2023 can be interesting.



For 2022/23, based purely on talent projections:

Fultz/Anthony/xxxx
xxxx/Ross/Hampton
Isaac/xxxx/xxxx
Okeke/xxxx/xxxx
xxxx/Carter/Bamba

In reality there are players above that would be bench players on another team that will start for Orlando (Carter at C for example). But the point is that there is basically reasonable depth to build around. This years off-season rookies will be in year 2 and a noter rookie would be on the roster. That is 11 players already. This team is kind of already assembled. Indeed picking up a FA this off-season means that there would only nee two to add in the 2022 off-season.

..
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1025 » by tiderulz » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:25 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:One thing that gets under my nerves so much is " but this time we have new direction, we tank". For f*** sake we were tanking in 2018. Only season we were NOT tanking were 2019 and 2020. Taking in considirations 2020 season ended like 6 months ago,and we are already up to new tanking. In TEN YEARS Magic only did NOT tank THREE times.

What's so new about this direction? This is execlly what they were doing since Dwight threw Stan under a bus.

the front office went in on the tank this year full bore, unlike 2018. instead of signing any real vets, they have been rotating G-league, 2-way contract type of players. they didnt do it that much in 2018.


Rashard Vaughn, Purvis, Payne, Jamel Artis... Do you know Artis avaraged 18 mpg in 15 games he played ? :lol:

ffs we played Shelvin Mack for 20 min a game for 70 games. If that is not most obvious tanking i don't know what is.

In 37 blowout at end of a season vs Hornets our starting 5 was: Iwundu, Artis, Hezonja, Biyombo and Augustin . our bench was: Purvis, Birch, Mack and Mo Speights. If that is not even worst than current Magic 8 courpses squad i don't know what is.

over years people just become obsessed about that Dallas win, despite fact that even if we actually LOST, we would still not hold tiebraeker and lottery would probably still play the same. In mean time, as part of narrative driven agenda people have collective amnesia that Kings won 4 games MORE THAN US AND DRAFTED 2# , but nobody wants to talk about it because it doesn't fit their narrative.

Vaughn and Mack more NBA caliber players than Donta Hall, Cannady, Franks and Randle. and they didnt go in until late in the season. I knew they went all in when Fultz and Isaac went down and with possible PG's out there available, they didnt make a short sighted move by maybe trading for Bledsoe, signing Thomas, etc.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1026 » by pepe1991 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:27 pm

BCS wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:One thing that gets under my nerves so much is " but this time we have new direction, we tank". For f*** sake we were tanking in 2018. Only season we were NOT tanking were 2019 and 2020. Taking in considirations 2020 season ended like 6 months ago,and we are already up to new tanking. In TEN YEARS Magic only did NOT tank THREE times.

What's so new about this direction? This is execlly what they were doing since Dwight threw Stan under a bus.
No we were not tanking all those years. The team stopped tanking the moment they hired Skiles, the moment they decided its time to win now and started making dumb moves, the ibaka trade, the Harris trade for more vets, the Biyombo signing smh, these moves kept us in mediocrity until right now, until this year. The team just sucked all those years and we tried to take a shortcut.

We weren't ready at that time to make those moves and they cemented us in no man's land.

I personally enjoyed the years we only won 20 and such way more than the past few years where we are the 7th or 8th seed and have no hope of winning a series.

But if you enjoy 8th seed and getting eliminated year after year....more power to you, I do not.

If you have a better way to improve the team that does not involve the draft I would love to hear it still.

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6 of 10 worst Orlando Magic seasons were in last 10 years.

How is that not active tanking?

Scot Skiles was only coach for one season , 2015-16. Clifford was coach of playoff team in 2018-19 and 2019-20.

From 2012-13, to 2020-21 , there are 9 seasons, including this. Once you exclude three seasons they tried to win, you get to amount of 5 seasons of tanking. They have had TOP FIVE WORST RECORD IN ALL FIVE OF THEM.

As i keep repeating, and people keep ignoring, this "new" approach is ongoing same, approach to rebuild via sucking for ping pong balls for 10 years now. It simply doesn't work, it hasn't work, yet people are so exited to try again. Because once upon a time there was one team named Warriors who drafted Curry. Curry,who is today, 32 years old ,just to put in perspective how far in history you have to reach to find justification for this approach.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1027 » by pepe1991 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:44 pm

tiderulz wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
tiderulz wrote:the front office went in on the tank this year full bore, unlike 2018. instead of signing any real vets, they have been rotating G-league, 2-way contract type of players. they didnt do it that much in 2018.


Rashard Vaughn, Purvis, Payne, Jamel Artis... Do you know Artis avaraged 18 mpg in 15 games he played ? :lol:

ffs we played Shelvin Mack for 20 min a game for 70 games. If that is not most obvious tanking i don't know what is.

In 37 blowout at end of a season vs Hornets our starting 5 was: Iwundu, Artis, Hezonja, Biyombo and Augustin . our bench was: Purvis, Birch, Mack and Mo Speights. If that is not even worst than current Magic 8 courpses squad i don't know what is.

over years people just become obsessed about that Dallas win, despite fact that even if we actually LOST, we would still not hold tiebraeker and lottery would probably still play the same. In mean time, as part of narrative driven agenda people have collective amnesia that Kings won 4 games MORE THAN US AND DRAFTED 2# , but nobody wants to talk about it because it doesn't fit their narrative.

Vaughn and Mack more NBA caliber players than Donta Hall, Cannady, Franks and Randle. and they didnt go in until late in the season. I knew they went all in when Fultz and Isaac went down and with possible PG's out there available, they didnt make a short sighted move by maybe trading for Bledsoe, signing Thomas, etc.


Image

My point is that we were tanking , and it was active tank.

This is box score for that Dallas win. You can't tell me that they didn't approach game with every intention to lose. Ffs it's same front office it runs the show today.
And odds are, if we don't land top 3 pick people will be claiming that we didn't suck hard enough.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1028 » by uraverage » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:46 pm

pepe1991 wrote:

Image

6 of 10 worst Orlando Magic seasons were in last 10 years.

How is that not active tanking?

Scot Skiles was only coach for one season , 2015-16. Clifford was coach of playoff team in 2018-19 and 2019-20.

From 2012-13, to 2020-21 , there are 9 seasons, including this. Once you exclude three seasons they tried to win, you get to amount of 5 seasons of tanking. They have had TOP FIVE WORST RECORD IN ALL FIVE OF THEM.

As i keep repeating, and people keep ignoring, this "new" approach is ongoing same, approach to rebuild via sucking for ping pong balls for 10 years now. It simply doesn't work, it hasn't work, yet people are so exited to try again. Because once upon a time there was one team named Warriors who drafted Curry. Curry,who is today, 32 years old ,just to put in perspective how far in history you have to reach to find justification for this approach.
Of course we have been losing for the last 10 years. There is a difference between losing and tanking. We made the playoffs 2 years in a row (while losing). This is not the path to become winning. The number is .210. This the winning % over 4 years that the 76ers had to achieve to climb out of their hole, while still not winning anything just being in the conversation of contending. It also took luck, its called a lottery and it takes no skill to win, its just luck...
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1029 » by thelead » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:53 pm

There is a difference between tanking and just being bad. And to be honest, I'm not happy with how we tanked this season either. If we would have made the decision earlier, we could have been on pace for the worst record while guaranteeing us a top 5 pick.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1030 » by pepe1991 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:00 pm

uraverage wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:

Image

6 of 10 worst Orlando Magic seasons were in last 10 years.

How is that not active tanking?

Scot Skiles was only coach for one season , 2015-16. Clifford was coach of playoff team in 2018-19 and 2019-20.

From 2012-13, to 2020-21 , there are 9 seasons, including this. Once you exclude three seasons they tried to win, you get to amount of 5 seasons of tanking. They have had TOP FIVE WORST RECORD IN ALL FIVE OF THEM.

As i keep repeating, and people keep ignoring, this "new" approach is ongoing same, approach to rebuild via sucking for ping pong balls for 10 years now. It simply doesn't work, it hasn't work, yet people are so exited to try again. Because once upon a time there was one team named Warriors who drafted Curry. Curry,who is today, 32 years old ,just to put in perspective how far in history you have to reach to find justification for this approach.
Of course we have been losing for the last 10 years. There is a difference between losing and tanking. We made the playoffs 2 years in a row (while losing). This is not the path to become winning. The number is .210. This the winning % over 4 years that the 76ers had to achieve to climb out of their hole, while still not winning anything just being in the conversation of contending. It also took luck, its called a lottery and it takes no skill to win, its just luck...


76ers were embarrassment for pro sports for 4 years straight, just to never pass second round of playoffs as reward for it. Hell, got swept last year in first round.

But Magic 2012-13 , 2014-15 and 2017-18 win percentages are all lower than current one, despite sitting at 18-39 record and being 4th worst team.

As i repeat, Magic were 5 different times top 5 worst ranked team. They just botched lottery picks and picked wrong players.

2013- Oladipo, alternative McCullum, Giannis
2014 Gordon & Payton alternative Lavine, Jokic
2015 - Hezonja, alternative Booker
2017 Isaac, alternative Mitchell, Adebayo
2018 Bamba, atlernative SGA

Once you figure they missed out on like 8 to 10 different allstar level players, and drafted 0 allstar players , it's not hard to figure it's not draft position or lack of tankig, it's simply being terrible at drafting.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1031 » by pepe1991 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:06 pm

thelead wrote:There is a difference between tanking and just being bad. And to be honest, I'm not happy with how we tanked this season either. If we would have made the decision earlier, we could have been on pace for the worst record while guaranteeing us a top 5 pick.



I strongly reccommend for die hard tankers to read this article and come back with straight face and say that rebuilding via sucking is even strategy, let alone good one.

https://fansided.com/2020/08/04/nba-lottery-odds-changed-rebuilding-strategy/


What this boils down to is that teams in the 5-13 range have sometimes two or even three times as high of a chance of jumping up in the lottery as they did in the old system. The draft has gotten significantly rosier for them, while teams in the bottom four have seen their draft bailouts shrink.

Things have gotten particularly bad for the worst team in the league, especially if its plan was to be bad over the course of multiple years. That strategy depended heavily on drafting a superstar with the over-sized value of the no. 1 pick. That pick is going to be much more evenly distributed now.

Consider that if you were planning a five-year rebuild, if you were the worst team in the league for all five years, you would expect to get at least one No. 1 pick about 76 percent of the time under the old system. That number is now down to 53 percent. And it is definitely possible to be stuck at the bottom for five years without even drafting better than third (it will happen with 23 percent likelihood as opposed to only 7 percent in the old system.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1032 » by tiderulz » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:08 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
Rashard Vaughn, Purvis, Payne, Jamel Artis... Do you know Artis avaraged 18 mpg in 15 games he played ? :lol:

ffs we played Shelvin Mack for 20 min a game for 70 games. If that is not most obvious tanking i don't know what is.

In 37 blowout at end of a season vs Hornets our starting 5 was: Iwundu, Artis, Hezonja, Biyombo and Augustin . our bench was: Purvis, Birch, Mack and Mo Speights. If that is not even worst than current Magic 8 courpses squad i don't know what is.

over years people just become obsessed about that Dallas win, despite fact that even if we actually LOST, we would still not hold tiebraeker and lottery would probably still play the same. In mean time, as part of narrative driven agenda people have collective amnesia that Kings won 4 games MORE THAN US AND DRAFTED 2# , but nobody wants to talk about it because it doesn't fit their narrative.

Vaughn and Mack more NBA caliber players than Donta Hall, Cannady, Franks and Randle. and they didnt go in until late in the season. I knew they went all in when Fultz and Isaac went down and with possible PG's out there available, they didnt make a short sighted move by maybe trading for Bledsoe, signing Thomas, etc.


Image

My point is that we were tanking , and it was active tank.

This is box score for that Dallas win. You can't tell me that they didn't approach game with every intention to lose. Ffs it's same front office it runs the show today.
And odds are, if we don't land top 3 pick people will be claiming that we didn't suck hard enough.

but not all in. maybe they saw, AG instead of Embiid 1 pick away. Hezonja instead of Porzingis 1 pick away, Bamba instead of Young 1 pick away.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1033 » by basketballRob » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:19 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
thelead wrote:There is a difference between tanking and just being bad. And to be honest, I'm not happy with how we tanked this season either. If we would have made the decision earlier, we could have been on pace for the worst record while guaranteeing us a top 5 pick.



I strongly reccommend for die hard tankers to read this article and come back with straight face and say that rebuilding via sucking is even strategy, let alone good one.

https://fansided.com/2020/08/04/nba-lottery-odds-changed-rebuilding-strategy/


What this boils down to is that teams in the 5-13 range have sometimes two or even three times as high of a chance of jumping up in the lottery as they did in the old system. The draft has gotten significantly rosier for them, while teams in the bottom four have seen their draft bailouts shrink.

Things have gotten particularly bad for the worst team in the league, especially if its plan was to be bad over the course of multiple years. That strategy depended heavily on drafting a superstar with the over-sized value of the no. 1 pick. That pick is going to be much more evenly distributed now.

Consider that if you were planning a five-year rebuild, if you were the worst team in the league for all five years, you would expect to get at least one No. 1 pick about 76 percent of the time under the old system. That number is now down to 53 percent. And it is definitely possible to be stuck at the bottom for five years without even drafting better than third (it will happen with 23 percent likelihood as opposed to only 7 percent in the old system.
When Vuc falls on his face I'm going to post all day long what a loser he is. He plays no defense and will never be a winner.

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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1034 » by thelead » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:19 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
thelead wrote:There is a difference between tanking and just being bad. And to be honest, I'm not happy with how we tanked this season either. If we would have made the decision earlier, we could have been on pace for the worst record while guaranteeing us a top 5 pick.



I strongly reccommend for die hard tankers to read this article and come back with straight face and say that rebuilding via sucking is even strategy, let alone good one.

https://fansided.com/2020/08/04/nba-lottery-odds-changed-rebuilding-strategy/


What this boils down to is that teams in the 5-13 range have sometimes two or even three times as high of a chance of jumping up in the lottery as they did in the old system. The draft has gotten significantly rosier for them, while teams in the bottom four have seen their draft bailouts shrink.

Things have gotten particularly bad for the worst team in the league, especially if its plan was to be bad over the course of multiple years. That strategy depended heavily on drafting a superstar with the over-sized value of the no. 1 pick. That pick is going to be much more evenly distributed now.

Consider that if you were planning a five-year rebuild, if you were the worst team in the league for all five years, you would expect to get at least one No. 1 pick about 76 percent of the time under the old system. That number is now down to 53 percent. And it is definitely possible to be stuck at the bottom for five years without even drafting better than third (it will happen with 23 percent likelihood as opposed to only 7 percent in the old system.

Well, yeah, the system has changed but that doesn't mean you don't want the best odds possible. I would actually be for flattening the odds for everyone in the lottery but that's not the system we have in place today.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1035 » by pepe1991 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:20 pm

tiderulz wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
tiderulz wrote:Vaughn and Mack more NBA caliber players than Donta Hall, Cannady, Franks and Randle. and they didnt go in until late in the season. I knew they went all in when Fultz and Isaac went down and with possible PG's out there available, they didnt make a short sighted move by maybe trading for Bledsoe, signing Thomas, etc.


Image

My point is that we were tanking , and it was active tank.

This is box score for that Dallas win. You can't tell me that they didn't approach game with every intention to lose. Ffs it's same front office it runs the show today.
And odds are, if we don't land top 3 pick people will be claiming that we didn't suck hard enough.

but not all in. maybe they saw, AG instead of Embiid 1 pick away. Hezonja instead of Porzingis 1 pick away, Bamba instead of Young 1 pick away.


2014- 3rd worst record. 9th worst team, Cavs, jump to 1# pick.
2015-5th worst record. Drafted 5th.
2018- 5th worst record. Sacramento from 9th jump to 2# pick

More or less, Magic "lost" their spot because teams that were not active takners were leaping over them. Not because they didn't suck hard enough.
2018 is most talked about draft from Magic perspective because of "lack of tanking" and illusion that Doncic or Young could have been taken by Orlando, when in reality it was never case. Kings leaping over top everybody but Suns ment every single team was going to fall, Magic could have fallen even lower, 6th was highest they could draft.
Ayton , Bagley gone, and Suns, Grizzlies and Mavs on the clock, it was always unrealistic to get any of them, best case for Orlando could have been taking Jaren Jackson Jr, and it's not like that guy has been anything but walking injury magnet since.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1036 » by tiderulz » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:28 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
Image

My point is that we were tanking , and it was active tank.

This is box score for that Dallas win. You can't tell me that they didn't approach game with every intention to lose. Ffs it's same front office it runs the show today.
And odds are, if we don't land top 3 pick people will be claiming that we didn't suck hard enough.

but not all in. maybe they saw, AG instead of Embiid 1 pick away. Hezonja instead of Porzingis 1 pick away, Bamba instead of Young 1 pick away.


2014- 3rd worst record. 9th worst team, Cavs, jump to 1# pick.
2015-5th worst record. Drafted 5th.
2018- 5th worst record. Sacramento from 9th jump to 2# pick

More or less, Magic "lost" their spot because teams that were not active takners were leaping over them. Not because they didn't suck hard enough.
2018 is most talked about draft from Magic perspective because of "lack of tanking" and illusion that Doncic or Young could have been taken by Orlando, when in reality it was never case. Kings leaping over top everybody but Suns ment every single team was going to fall, Magic could have fallen even lower, 6th was highest they could draft.
Ayton , Bagley gone, and Suns, Grizzlies and Mavs on the clock, it was always unrealistic to get any of them, best case for Orlando could have been taking Jaren Jackson Jr, and it's not like that guy has been anything but walking injury magnet since.

2018- Dallas/Atlanta 24 wins, Orlando 25 wins
2017 - Philly 28 wins, Orlando 29 wins

its part luck, part maximizing your chances
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1037 » by pepe1991 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:30 pm

thelead wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
thelead wrote:There is a difference between tanking and just being bad. And to be honest, I'm not happy with how we tanked this season either. If we would have made the decision earlier, we could have been on pace for the worst record while guaranteeing us a top 5 pick.



I strongly reccommend for die hard tankers to read this article and come back with straight face and say that rebuilding via sucking is even strategy, let alone good one.

https://fansided.com/2020/08/04/nba-lottery-odds-changed-rebuilding-strategy/


What this boils down to is that teams in the 5-13 range have sometimes two or even three times as high of a chance of jumping up in the lottery as they did in the old system. The draft has gotten significantly rosier for them, while teams in the bottom four have seen their draft bailouts shrink.

Things have gotten particularly bad for the worst team in the league, especially if its plan was to be bad over the course of multiple years. That strategy depended heavily on drafting a superstar with the over-sized value of the no. 1 pick. That pick is going to be much more evenly distributed now.

Consider that if you were planning a five-year rebuild, if you were the worst team in the league for all five years, you would expect to get at least one No. 1 pick about 76 percent of the time under the old system. That number is now down to 53 percent. And it is definitely possible to be stuck at the bottom for five years without even drafting better than third (it will happen with 23 percent likelihood as opposed to only 7 percent in the old system.

Well, yeah, the system has changed but that doesn't mean you don't want the best odds possible. I would actually be for flattening the odds for everyone in the lottery but that's not the system we have in place today.


I'm not sure how to put it in funcional english :lol:

Let's say like this: current reformed draft makes process of sucking -by gutting roster not rewarding, compared to just being mediocre to bad and still having good nba players around.

it was much easier for team like Hornets to "rebuild" ,while falling 1 game away from play in tournament, and still landing 3rd overall pick and ROY Lamelo Ball, than it will to Detroit, who gutted roster just to end up with 7th pick.

Risk and reward for being terrible on purpose opposite of being "just" bad , to me, by looking at this odds, simply isn't appealing enough to be pulling Cavs- like rebuild. Where they are for 4th year in a row just sucking without any idea what they are trying to build. New year, new tankjob, still no star nor direction. And, for change, very little draft luck. After hitting 3 first overall picks in 10 years
Life is what happens when you're busy making other plans. -John Lennon
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1038 » by pepe1991 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:34 pm

tiderulz wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
tiderulz wrote:but not all in. maybe they saw, AG instead of Embiid 1 pick away. Hezonja instead of Porzingis 1 pick away, Bamba instead of Young 1 pick away.


2014- 3rd worst record. 9th worst team, Cavs, jump to 1# pick.
2015-5th worst record. Drafted 5th.
2018- 5th worst record. Sacramento from 9th jump to 2# pick

More or less, Magic "lost" their spot because teams that were not active takners were leaping over them. Not because they didn't suck hard enough.
2018 is most talked about draft from Magic perspective because of "lack of tanking" and illusion that Doncic or Young could have been taken by Orlando, when in reality it was never case. Kings leaping over top everybody but Suns ment every single team was going to fall, Magic could have fallen even lower, 6th was highest they could draft.
Ayton , Bagley gone, and Suns, Grizzlies and Mavs on the clock, it was always unrealistic to get any of them, best case for Orlando could have been taking Jaren Jackson Jr, and it's not like that guy has been anything but walking injury magnet since.

2018- Dallas/Atlanta 24 wins, Orlando 25 wins
2017 - Philly 28 wins, Orlando 29 wins

its part luck, part maximizing your chances



All before reformed lottery.
Life is what happens when you're busy making other plans. -John Lennon
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1039 » by Skin » Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:11 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
Skin wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
So, nobody waches young players that play, but want to add more young players so they can countinue to not watch them and wanting even more young players ? Tnx for making my point for me. 2012-13 had 63% drop in viewership because nobody wanted to watch team suck. 2013, despite landing 2# pick had worst team's revenue in last 15 years. 2015, in moments when team had THREE top 5 picks, still nobody watched team.
Despite adding 4 lottery picks in 3 years, team was still garbage that nobody watched all the way until 2018 and first playoff in 6 years when tv ratings saw first boom.

Just to go back to rock bottom, again.

You just like to find ways to be controversial. Watching these games have been the best part of the season. ...and you HATE it because you think that every time Chuma or Carter has a good game that we go overboard in our cheering for them.

So what is it? Are we not watching young players or ARE WE???? You can't have it both ways.


Once upon a time you were clapping your heads in exitment how Mo Harkless will be developed into elite player because in games where team was getting runned over by 30, he scored 12
:clap:

Just like you were clapping in exitment after Harris trade so we can develop superstar Gordon :clap:

Just like you were clapping in exitment how euro Kobe Hezonja has "dawwwgggggggg" swagger :clap:

Feel free to clap , that's what you do. Than you backtrack it years later and claim you were never high on XY player
:clown:

Bro, you funny. I'm loving this team right now because they are trying to develop their young talent. I enjoy the chase to see what their potential is. If I support them along the way because I'm a Magic fan wanting the best for them, so be it. But once guys reach their potential and it is clear that they are either part of the solution or part of the problem, then it's time to make a decision.

You can't just research old posts and use them to support claims because of course there will be some hyperbolic posts that are "in the moment" type comments. But the 1 or 2 posts here and there do not override the 50+ posts that tell a more truer story. ie. I'm NOT a fan of Cole Anthony, but you WILL find some posts where I've said encouraging things about him when merited. You know damn well I hated Hezonja from the very start. Just go look at his draft thread when we took him. lol

I never backtrack. I own my mistakes. Plenty of wrongs to go around. Plenty of rights too. ;)
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Re: Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow! 

Post#1040 » by drsd » Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:17 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
thelead wrote:There is a difference between tanking and just being bad. And to be honest, I'm not happy with how we tanked this season either. If we would have made the decision earlier, we could have been on pace for the worst record while guaranteeing us a top 5 pick.



I strongly reccommend for die hard tankers to read this article and come back with straight face and say that rebuilding via sucking is even strategy, let alone good one.

https://fansided.com/2020/08/04/nba-lottery-odds-changed-rebuilding-strategy/


What this boils down to is that teams in the 5-13 range have sometimes two or even three times as high of a chance of jumping up in the lottery as they did in the old system. The draft has gotten significantly rosier for them, while teams in the bottom four have seen their draft bailouts shrink.

Things have gotten particularly bad for the worst team in the league, especially if its plan was to be bad over the course of multiple years. That strategy depended heavily on drafting a superstar with the over-sized value of the no. 1 pick. That pick is going to be much more evenly distributed now.

Consider that if you were planning a five-year rebuild, if you were the worst team in the league for all five years, you would expect to get at least one No. 1 pick about 76 percent of the time under the old system. That number is now down to 53 percent. And it is definitely possible to be stuck at the bottom for five years without even drafting better than third (it will happen with 23 percent likelihood as opposed to only 7 percent in the old system.


I for one am happy that Hampton, Harris and Carter are all part of the rebuild, as one would think that at least one of them could emerge as a good player on this team. Add to Fultz and Isaac, the Magic is not that far off from getting back to mediocrity, which is the traditional transition step to get from Bad to Good.

I agree with you fully that Tanking does not work as a strategy. Very few title teams have ever been formed. And the counter cases of screwed drafting and key trades is a much clearer path to becoming a better team.

BUT: in these next ~15 games, even as hard-core Anti-tankers cannot really want Orlando to win any more games this season. But for next season, it is back to JUST WIN. Orlando needs wins.

..

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